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SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket expected to reach major launch milestone in 2020
Hours after SpaceX launched its 240th new Starlink satellite into orbit, Elon Musk took to Twitter to cryptically reveal that the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket could “reach triple digits this year” if everything goes according to plan.
Designed and built by SpaceX in the late 2000s, the Falcon 9 rocket launched for the first time in June 2010. Developed for the unfathomably low price of $300 million from clean-sheet design to first orbital launch, the original single-core Falcon 9 rocket – known as V1.0 – was about 48m (160 ft) tall, weighed 333 metric tons (735,000 lb) fully fueled, and was capable of launching almost 10.5 metric tons (23,000 lb) into low Earth orbit (LEO). Famously, when provided with Falcon 9’s basic specifications and characteristics, an independent NASA study estimated that the rocket’s development would have cost the agency anywhere from $1.7 billion to $4 billion to design and build.
NASA came to this conclusion in 2011, less than a year after Falcon 9’s first launch, and that the disconnect between the status quo held by NASA and the broader US spaceflight industry and what SpaceX tangibly achieved came to almost perfectly symbolize the rocket’s first six or so years of operations. Although SpaceX stumbled hard with two catastrophic rocket failures in June 2015 and September 2016, the company ultimately picked itself up, learned from those still-agonizing lessons, and has since shaped Falcon 9 into one of the most capable, reliable, reusable, and prolific launch vehicles ever flown. That latter characteristic – the sheer volume of launches Falcon 9 has come to represent – is what CEO Elon Musk was referring to earlier this week.
Specifically, after Wednesday’s flawless launch, Falcon 9 has now launched 80 times in its 9.5-year career, while Starlink V1 L3 marked the workhorse rocket’s 52nd consecutive success of 79 total. Impressively, while those 52 launches represent almost 65% of all of Falcon 9’s missions, SpaceX has dramatically improved the rocket’s reliability and availability over the last few years. In short, Falcon 9 has completed 52 consecutively successful launches in exactly 36 months (January 2017 to January 2020), meaning that nearly two-thirds of its lifetime launches have occurred in less than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational.
Put a different way, since the start of 2017, SpaceX has – on average – launched Falcon 9 more than four times (1.4 launches/month) as often as the rocket managed in its first 6.5 years of operations (1 launch every 2.7 months). Tweeting on January 29th, 2020 in response to an overview of the number of launches performed by each operational US rocket, CEO Elon Musk hinted that he believes “Falcon 9 will achieve triple digits” in 2020.
In other words, Musk thinks that SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket will be able to reach more than 100 lifetime launches by the end of 2020 — a feat that will require at least 20 additional Falcon 9 launches over the next 11 months. Speaking hours after SpaceX completed its third launch in January 2020 alone, it’s not hard to imagine – assuming, as Musk did, that “all goes well – that Falcon 9 will manage another 20 launches this year.
Averaged out, SpaceX has performed a launch every 9.7 days in January. Extrapolated to the rest of the year and assuming no improvement, SpaceX could theoretically perform as many as 37 launches in 2020. It’s worth noting, however, that SpaceX’s third launch of the month was ready for flight as early as January 21st but was delayed more than a week by bad weather – obviously out of the company’s control. Had weather permitted, SpaceX even had a fourth launch planned this month – a Starlink mission that is now expected sometime in early February.
In simple terms, it would take one or several major upsets to prevent Falcon 9 from reaching >100 lifetime launches later this year. Even if every single customer launch abruptly slips into 2021, SpaceX has still said that it has plans for 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020 alone, potentially singlehandedly carrying Falcon 9 over the 100-launch crest.
Falcon 9’s next launch – the fourth Starlink v1.0 mission – is currently scheduled no earlier than (NET) early February, followed by another Starlink mission later that month and Cargo Dragon’s final space station resupply mission NET March 2nd.
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Tesla and Arevon team up on 172-Megapack solar plus project
One of Tesla’s largest Megapack sites, the Arevon Eland solar project is supported by an impressive 1.2GWh of Megapacks.
Tesla and partner Arevon have completed the second phase of an energy storage site in Southern California, as highlighted in a short video shared this week.
On Monday, Tesla’s Megapack account on X posted a brief video on the Kern County, California “Eland” storage site, which was recently expanded to offer 300MW/1.2GWh of Megapacks supporting 758MW of solar. The so-called “Eland Solar-plus-Storage Project” site now features 172 Megapack units and 1.36 million solar panels, which the companies have previously said is roughly enough to power 200,000 homes annually.
In the video, Tesla also notes that the facility has site-level controls to regulate power output, “providing a firm resource to the grid,” and supporting the Los Angeles climate goal of reaching 100-percent renewable electricity by 2035. You can check out the clip below.
758 MW of solar supported by 1.2 GWh of Megapack at Arevon’s site in Kern County, California pic.twitter.com/HTP92uYVIP
— Tesla Megapack (@Tesla_Megapack) March 17, 2025
READ MORE ON TESLA MEGAPACKS: Tesla Megapack project in California housed in former steam plant
Arevon announced the official start of operations for Eland 1 in December with 150MW/600 MWh, and the Eland 2 phase has effectively doubled this. The company also appears to be on track for its targeted opening of Eland 2 in Q1 this year, though it’s not clear at the time of writing if Arevon has yet announced a start of operations for the second phase.
Last February, Arevon announced that it secured a $1.1 billion financial commitment for the remaining parts of the Eland 2 Solar-plus-Storage project, together with Eland 1 becoming one of the largest solar-plus-storage installations in the U.S. The projects also include a long-term purchase agreement from the Southern California Public Power Authority, which plans to facilitate contracts for the LA Department of Water and Power and Glendale Water and Power.
Tesla’s grid-scale Megapack batteries can store and deploy generated energy to the electrical grid, especially during periods of peak power usage, high demand, or outages. Coupled with solar or other energy sources in these kinds of solar-plus-storage sites, Tesla’s Megapacks can help support renewable energy for long periods of time, or at least add stability to the grid.
Over the past couple of years, Tesla has been deploying large-scale Megapack projects in markets around the world, as backed by an initial production facility in Lathrop, California. This “Megafactory” aims to eventually produce 10,000 Megapack units, or 40 GWh, per year, and it has been ramping up production since late 2022.
In November, the Lathrop Megafactory officially produced its 10,000th Megapack, and Tesla also started production at a second Megapack plant in Shanghai, China last month, after starting construction on the site last May. The Shanghai Megafactory is also expected to have a volume annual production of 10,000 units per year.
Additionally, Tesla has teased plans for a third Megafactory, though it has yet to disclose where such a facility would be built.
Tesla’s massive Megapack site near Melbourne is almost ready
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Tesla reveals Cybercab battery pack and range efficiency
Tesla aims to make the Cybercab the most efficient EV available, as executives revealed in an interview this week.
Two of the top Tesla executives recently spoke about the Cybercab in an interview with a longtime manufacturing industry expert, sharing details about the electric vehicle’s (EV’s) battery pack size, range, and more.
On Monday, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy and Senior Design Executive Franz von Holzhausen told manufacturing industry veteran Sandy Munro that Tesla is targeting a battery pack of under 50kWh for the Cybercab, with “close to” 300 miles of real-world range. This would make the two-seater more efficient than any other EV currently in production, partially due to the two-seater’s highly-aerodynamic design.
Munro says he was expecting a battery pack ranging from 55kWh to 60 kWh, noting how much smaller Tesla is aiming to go. Before revealing the range targets, Moravy also detailed how the Cybercab’s aero wheel covers offer optimal aerodynamics to contribute to the impressive efficiency level.
“As much as Franz hates door handles, I hate the wheel-tire interaction, and this is really the best way for us to get the most aerodynamic wheel-tire we could get,” Moravy explains.
From the wheel covers to the overall design, however, von Holzhausen explains how much thought has gone into making the vehicle so efficient—even down to its shape.
“This car is actually really unique in terms of its teardrop shape,” von Holzhausen said. “It’s actually quite narrow in the rear compared to the front. Obviously, you covered the discs, but the aero efficiency is a huge factor in getting to higher range with a smaller battery pack.”
The fact that the vehicle only has two seats also contributes to some of the design choices Tesla was able to implement, as the executive continues to explain.
“Really, because it’s a two-seater we were able to really narrow the hips on this car, and when you come to the rear, you actually start to see how narrow it is, but it’s not unattractive,” he adds.
Credit: Tesla | X
🚨 Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, says the Cybercab is not “painted” and they developed a new process where the polyurethane paint is injected into the panel at the same time as manufacturing
(via Ride the Lightning podcast) pic.twitter.com/5g7vjdOpNn
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) February 23, 2025
READ MORE ON TESLA CYBERCAB: Tesla reveals design inspiration behind Cybercab’s gold color
Moravy reiterates that Tesla is already starting to install production equipment for the Cybercab at Gigafactory Texas, which was revealed in a shareholder’s letter in late January. He also echoes plans that Tesla is aiming for prototype builds for the Cybercab by this summer, along with a launch event around early 2026.
In recent weeks, increasing numbers of Cybercabs have also been seen testing at Giga Texas, and longtime drone pilot and factory observer Joe Tegtmeyer said that he saw as many as six driving around the site on Monday.
Last month, Moravy also alluded to plans to make the Cybercab “road-trip-capable,” going long distances with wireless charging along the way to make it completely autonomous for passengers.
Along with talking about the Cybercab’s super-efficient design, the two executives also reiterate discussions about the art deco-inspired design of the robotaxi and the larger Robovan, both of which were unveiled in an event in October. Munro and the executives also go on to sit inside the Robovan while talking a bit about its design.
You can see footage from Teslarati‘s first full ride in the Cybercab below, as captured at the “We, Robot” event in Southern California. Or, check out the full Cybercab and Robovan episode from Munro, Moravy, and von Holzhausen below that, clocking in at just under 25 minutes.
🎥: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024
Tesla says its Cybercab wireless charging efficiency is ‘well above 90%’
SpaceX is ready to bring home Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, the two astronauts that have been stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) for nine months.
Last week, SpaceX launched its Crew-10 mission, which would dock onto the ISS late Saturday night and be the two astronauts’ ride home. Now, the end is in sight, and it appears both NASA and SpaceX are planning to have the two home this week, perhaps earlier than expected.
SpaceX readies to rescue astronauts from International Space Station
The agency and the company have announced that Dragon will autonomously undock from the ISS on Tuesday at 1:05 a.m. ET and should re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and splashdown off the Florida coast about 17 hours later.
SpaceX said:
“SpaceX and NASA are targeting Tuesday, March 18 at 1:05 a.m. ET for Dragon to autonomously undock from the International Space Station. After performing a series of departure burns to move away from the space station, Dragon will conduct multiple orbit-lowering maneuvers, jettison the trunk, and re-enter Earth’s atmosphere for splashdown off the coast of Florida approximately 17 hours later the same day.”
Crew-9 astronaut Nick Hague will be alongside Williams and Wilmore on the flight home, along with Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov. Hague and Gorbunov have been in space since Saturday, September 28.
SpaceX was tasked with bringing Wilmore and Williams home after the Boeing Starliner that sent them there was determined not to be suitable for their return.
A report from the New York Post in late August said that Boeing employees routinely made fun of SpaceX workers, only for the company to bail them out:
SpaceX bails out Boeing and employees are reportedly ‘humiliated’
Crew-10 will bring the astronauts home, ending an extensive and unscheduled stay in space.
Tesla and Arevon team up on 172-Megapack solar plus project
Tesla reveals Cybercab battery pack and range efficiency
SpaceX rescue mission for stranded ISS astronauts nears end — Here’s when they’ll return home
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