Update: Shortly after publishing, SpaceX began a much more ambitious series of tests with the Starship launch tower’s two main arms, which are designed to lift and (one day) catch Starships and Super Heavy boosters.
After lifting the arm carriage about 15m (~50 ft), several times higher than January 3rd’s far more conservative kickoff, SpaceX fired up each arm’s main hydraulic actuator and opened them about as wide as they’re able to move. Unsurprisingly, the arms’ first powered lateral movement happened very slowly, obviously telegraphing caution but probably also hinting at the start of a calibration process needed to determine their full range of motion and associate those positions with certain sensor readings or telemetry to ensure they can be safely controlled. As of midnight CST, that testing has continued well into the night.
Regardless of the purpose, substantial powered movement is a major milestone for the tower’s main arms and all but guarantees that more extensive tests and simulations are soon to come.
SpaceX has moved Starbase’s rocket-catching “chopstick” arms for the first time since they were installed on the orbital Starship pad’s ‘launch tower’ two months ago.
After a shockingly brisk three-month period of assembly, the first arm installed in late August 2021 was a lone structure designed to swing in; grab and stabilize Super Heavy with its claw; fuel and power Starship; and quickly detach and swing away from the rocket during launch. A month and a half later, SpaceX begin installing a much larger pair of more complex arms in mid-October. Unlike the Starship quick-disconnect (QD) arm, the pair of arms that followed were almost nothing like anything built as part of another rocket launch complex.
Unlike other ‘arms’ related to other rocket launch facilities, the pair SpaceX began to install on Starbase’s launch tower were colossal, measuring more than 30m (100+ ft) long and 5-10m (15-30 ft) tall. Built out of heavy-duty steel pipe and affixed to an even sturdier pair of claw-like supports that grab onto the launch tower, the combined assembly likely weighs hundreds of tons. Aside from their sheer scale, Starbase’s main tower arms are also attached to a complex system of cables and an industrial-strength ‘drawworks’ commonly used on giant oil rigs and derricks.
They also feature huge actuators that allow the two arms to open and close, revealing a bit of their purpose. While the main reason they likely exist is to provide SpaceX with an all-weather alternative to cranes for lifting, manipulating, and precisely stacking Starships and Super Heavy boosters at the launch pad, the headline – ever since Musk revealed the idea – has always been plans to use those same arms to literally catch rockets out of mid-air.
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To do so, they’ll need to be able to actuate and move extremely quickly and precisely up and down the Starship launch tower, matching the velocity and autonomously determining the position of landing Super Heavy boosters (and possibly Starships) to avoid major damage or the loss of entire vehicles. While arguably an unnecessary gamble and an attempt to micro-optimize the concept of operations of a rocket that’s yet to attempt a single orbital-class launch, SpaceX’s CEO is clearly committed to the idea and – whether or not the first iteration works – has fully delivered on the first complete lift-and-catch system.
On January 3rd, 2022, after removing a large amount of scaffolding in the days prior, SpaceX briefly and slightly moved the installed arms for the first time, using the drawworks to lift the entire arm-and-carriage assembly a few meters (~6 ft) up and down the tower. Once a few minor additional steps are taken, the chopsticks could be ready for much more extensive testing, beginning with basic lift, descent, and arm actuation tests to calibrate and then proof the first-of-its-kind mechanism. Later, SpaceX will likely simulate catching rockets in a wide range of scenarios. Somewhere before, during, or after that testing, SpaceX may perform another fit test with Starship S20 and Super Heavy B4 – but this time using the arms to lift and install the stages.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
