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SpaceX rolls out first new Starship prototype in nine months
For the first time in more than nine months, SpaceX has rolled a new Starship prototype to its Starbase, Texas launch facilities in the hopes of kicking off qualification testing in the near future.
The new activity exemplifies just how different – and more subdued – Starbase’s last year has been compared to the year prior. However, it also signals new hope for a significantly more eventful 2022 as SpaceX once again finds itself preparing for Starship’s first orbital launch attempt – albeit with an entirely different rocket.
The last time SpaceX rolled a new and functional Starship prototype from the factory to the test stand was on August 13th, 2021, when Starship S20 was transported back to the pad for the second time that month. On August 5th, the same unfinished Starship was stacked on top of Super Heavy booster B4, briefly assembling the largest rocket ever built. With the luxury of hindsight, it’s now clear that that particular milestone was more of a photo-op than a technical achievement. Nonetheless, Ship 20’s path was far more productive than Booster 4’s. The Starship returned to the Starbase factory for a few days of finishing touches before arriving back at the pad on August 13th. Only in the last week of September did Ship 20 finally begin its first significant tests, followed by its first Raptor static fire in mid-October. In mid-November, Ship 20 completed the first of several successful six-Raptor static fires.
Ultimately, by the time Ship 20 was retired in May 2022, the Starship was arguably fully ready to attempt to reach orbit or at least perform some kind of ambitious hypersonic test flight. However, Super Heavy Booster 4 never made it even a fraction of the way to a similar level of flight readiness and SpaceX never received the FAA environmental approval or launch license needed for an orbital launch attempt.
Only now, in May 2022, does it finally look likely that SpaceX will finally receive the necessary permissions for a limited orbital test flight campaign in the near future. While it’s hard to say if Booster 4 and Ship 20 could have supported some kind of launch campaign if permission had been granted months ago, what’s clear is that all aspects – flight hardware, pad hardware, and bureaucracy – have been chronically delayed to the point that Booster 4 and Ship 20 are now heavily outdated.
In their place, now, stand Super Heavy B7 and Starship S24 – the new ‘chosen ones’ assigned to Starship’s orbital launch debut. Both feature extensive design changes and account for an upgraded version of the Raptor engine and countless lessons learned over the better part of a year spent troubleshooting and testing their predecessors. While it did get off to a rocky start, Booster 7 has already completed several cryogenic proof tests and is in the middle of being outfitted with 33 new Raptor engines.
On the other hand, perhaps indicating SpaceX’s satisfaction with Ship 20’s performance, Starship S24 has been on the back burner in comparison. Only on May 26th, 2022 did SpaceX finally finish the prototype to the point that it was ready to begin qualification testing. Missing hundreds of TPS tiles and an aerocover cap, Ship 24 was quickly moved into position at a sort of drive-by test stand where it appears the prototype will first need to pass basic pressure and cryogenic proof tests.
If it passes those tests, SpaceX will then install Ship 24 on a suborbital launch and test stand (Suborbital Pad A) that has been significantly modified for qualification testing. Rather than leaping straight into static fires, SpaceX will minimize the risk of catastrophic failure by first using hydraulic rams to simulate the thrust of six Raptor V2 engines while Starship’s steel tanks and plumbing are chilled to cryogenic temperatures. Only after Ship 24 completes stress testing will SpaceX install new Raptor engines and prepare to replicate Ship 20’s success with several static fires.
Thanks to Raptor V2’s improvements, Ship 24 will likely need to withstand around 1400 tons (~3.1M lbf) of thrust at liftoff – almost 25% more than Ship 20 ever experienced. Beyond a sturdier thrust section, Ship 24 is also the first Starship SpaceX has outfitted with a next-generation nose; the first with a significant landing propellant (‘header’) tank redesign; and the first with a potentially functional payload bay and door.
Assuming Ship 24 passes all planned cryoproof and thrust simulation tests, it remains to be seen if SpaceX will return the Starship to Starbase factory facilities or – like with Ship 20 – install Raptors and finish its heat shield and thermal protection while sitting on the test stand. SpaceX has two test windows currently scheduled: one from 6am to 12pm CDT on Friday, May 27th and the other from 10am to 10pm CDT on Tuesday, May 31st.
Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
