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Elon Musk: SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch “highly likely” in Q1 2023
SpaceX’s first Starship orbital launch mount (OLM) appears to have passed a busy week of stress-testing, clearing the way for the company to transport a finished Super Heavy booster to the pad.
Using the same launch mount, that Starship booster is expected to attempt to complete some of the riskiest and most challenging tests SpaceX has ever conducted at its Starbase rocket development facilities. The schedule for that testing is unclear, but after an unusually drawn-out period of qualification testing, Super Heavy Booster 7 (B7) could soon attempt a full static fire test of all 33 of its Raptor 2 engines. Either before or after that crucial test, SpaceX is also expected to install Ship 24 (S24) on top of Super Heavy B7 for Starship’s first full-stack “wet dress rehearsal.”
Ultimately, if that testing produces the results SpaceX wants to see, CEO Elon Musk says that Starship could attempt its first orbital launch as early as late February or March 2023.
We have a real shot at late February. March launch attempt appears highly likely.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2023
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
Booster 7
Super Heavy B7 first left SpaceX’s Starbase factory in March 2022 and has been in a continuous flux of testing, repairs, upgrades, and more testing in the nine months since. The 69-meter-tall (~225 ft), 9-meter-wide (~30 ft) steel rocket was severely damaged at least twice in April and July, requiring weeks of substantial repairs. But neither instance permanently crippled the Starship booster, and Booster 7 testing has been cautious but largely successful since the rocket’s last close call.
Following its return to the OLS in early August, Super Heavy B7 has completed six static fire tests of anywhere from one to fourteen of its 33 Raptor engines. It has almost certainly dethroned Falcon Heavy to become the most powerful SpaceX rocket ever tested. And on January 8th, 2023, SpaceX rolled the rocket back to Starbase’s orbital launch site (OLS) for the seventh time. According to statements made by CEO Elon Musk and a presentation from a NASA official, the last major standalone test between Booster 7 and flight readiness is a full 33-engine static fire. Together, B7’s 33 Raptor 2 engines could produce up to 7600 tons (16.7 million lbf) of thrust at sea level, likely making Starship the most powerful rocket stage in the history of spaceflight.
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Ship 24
Starship prototype S24’s path has been a bit less rocky. The ship has needed some less obvious repairs, particularly right after its first tests in May 2022. Since August 2022, Ship 24 has completed three static fire tests – all seemingly successful. Most importantly, one of those tests ignited all six of S24’s Raptor engines, potentially qualifying it for an orbital launch attempt. Most recently, SpaceX completed a series of mysterious repairs, replaced and static-fired one of S24’s engines, and removed the Starship from its test stand.
With Booster 7 now awaiting installation on Starbase’s orbital launch mount and Ship 24 near-simultaneously removed from its test stand, it appears that SpaceX may attempt a different test before Super Heavy’s full static fire. Instead, SpaceX could start by stacking Ship 24 and Booster 7 and conducting a full-stack wet dress rehearsal (WDR) before shifting focus to Booster 7’s riskier static fire.
A wet dress rehearsal is a routine test conducted before a rocket launch and is generally designed to simulate every aspect of a launch save for engine ignition and liftoff. Most importantly, that involves fully filling the rocket with propellant and passing all of the checks the same rocket would need to pass to be cleared for launch. For Starship, the largest rocket ever built, a full propellant load means filling both stages with an extraordinary ~5000 tons of liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellant. SpaceX also needs to fill the rocket fast enough to keep that propellant supercool, which increases its density and overall performance.
The first full-stack WDR will thus test Starbase’s launch facilities just as much as Booster 7 and Ship 24. SpaceX has conducted many several Starship WDRs, but not with Ship 24. It’s also never fully filled a Super Heavy booster with real propellant, let alone both stages at once. It’s likely that issues will be discovered as SpaceX pushes the envelope, likely requiring multiple attempts.
OLS
In the spirit of caution, SpaceX has even taken the unusual step of stress-testing Starship’s orbital launch mount with a custom jig. In the first week of 2023, SpaceX used that jig to load pairs of the OLM’s 20 hold-down clamps with hundreds of tons of ballast, ensuring that they can withstand the immense weight of a fully-fueled Starship. Proof tests of Super Heavy B4 and B7 have likely subjected the OLM to 2000+ tons of force, but a full Starship will weigh more than double the maximum weight the OLM has experienced to date.
Plenty of risk remains and SpaceX is trading speed for caution, but this extra-cautious step has likely reduced the risk of the launch mount’s structure failing during wet-dress and static fire testing. According to Musk, SpaceX has a “real shot” at preparing Starship for a “late February” orbital launch attempt. Nonetheless, Musk also implied that a full-stack WDR and 33-engine static fire would “probably” be completed “in a few weeks” in September 2022. What is clear is that SpaceX is more committed than ever before to avoiding a catastrophic failure during Starship’s first orbital launch attempt.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares SpaceX’s directive that destroys a prevalent media narrative
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Elon Musk recently shared SpaceX’s standing policy to offer free Starlink service during natural disasters worldwide, highlighting the company’s commitment to pursue aid over profit during times of need.
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Starlink activates free service in Indonesia and Sri Lanka
Starlink recently announced free service for those impacted by severe flooding in Indonesia’s Sumatra region, partnering with the government to deploy terminals rapidly to the hardest-hit areas. The offer extends to new and existing customers through December, restoring connectivity in zones where traditional networks have failed due to infrastructure damage.
Musk quoted the post on X, writing, “SpaceX standard policy is to make Starlink free whenever there is a natural disaster somewhere in the world. It would not be right to profit from misfortune.”
Starlink extended the same relief to Sri Lanka amid Cyclone Ditwah, coordinating with local authorities for additional support. The cyclone battered the island nation with heavy rains and winds, disrupting communications for thousands. Free access also lasts until year-end, emphasizing Starlink’s role in bridging gaps during crises.
-->“For those affected by the severe flooding in Indonesia and Sri Lanka in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, Starlink is providing free service to new and existing customers through the end of December 2025. We’re also working with the Indonesian government to rapidly deploy terminals and restore connectivity to the hardest-hit areas on Sumatra, as well as with the Sri Lankan government to provide additional assistance,” Starlink wrote in a post on its official website.
Musk’s companies routinely provide aid
Musk’s firms have a track record of providing critical support in crises, often without fanfare, challenging portrayals of him as a comic book villain intent on enriching himself on the backs of a suffering populace. In January 2024 alone, Tesla opened Superchargers for free in Japan’s Hokuriku region after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake killed at least 55 and injured hundreds.
Similar efforts include Starlink deployments for the 2023 Maui wildfires, 2024 Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and floods in Texas, where the service was used to help facilitate emergency coordination. These actions, which total millions in waived fees and logistics, demonstrate a proactive ethos among Musk’s companies, with Musk noting in past interviews that such aid stems from engineering solutions over optics.
The initiatives also provide a direct rebuttal of Musk’s characterization on mainstream media, which tends to lean negatively. This has become much more notable in recent years as Musk adopted more conservative policies. These negative sentiments came to a head earlier this year when Tesla stores, vehicles, and even some owners, were attacked during waves of anti-Tesla protests.
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Tesla Cybertruck welcomed with open arms in South Korea
The event featured interactive demos, a light show with the full Tesla lineup, and announcements including FSD Supervised’s planned rollout to Cybertruck by the end of 2025.
Tesla Korea handed over its first 30 Cybertrucks to owners on Thursday during a ceremonial event at the Cultural Reserve Base in Seoul, marking the all-electric pickup truck’s official debut outside North America.
The event featured interactive demos, a light show with the full Tesla lineup, and announcements including FSD Supervised’s planned rollout to Cybertruck by the end of 2025.
A historic delivery event
The November 27 event transformed a former oil reserve warehouse into a symbolic launchpad for electric mobility. Attended by 30 new owners, the event included hands-on activities such as hammer-strike durability tests, accessory sales, a lucky draw, and group photos. It culminated in a synchronized light show featuring the 30 Cybertrucks alongside Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y vehicles, which drew cheers from attendees.
Yvonne Chan, Tesla APAC Regional Director, joined as a special guest to celebrate the delivery milestone. Tesla Korea President Seo Young-deuk was also in attendance, and shared his optimism for the company’s momentum in the country.
“Korea is currently the third-largest market for Tesla sales worldwide, and this year, for the first time, it has achieved the No. 1 spot in imported car brand sales volume, Tesla Korea is growing at an incredibly rapid pace,” he said. “To repay this love from our customers, Tesla plans to continue investing in the Korean market and enhancing the customer experience.”
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Seo announced the official introduction of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Korea, with Cybertrucks slated for inclusion by the end of 2025, which promoted applause from the event’s attendees. With even the Cybertruck expected to receive FSD this year, Tesla Korea’s fleet could very well become the country’s most advanced vehicles overnight.
Infrastructure growth remains a priority to support Tesla Korea’s expanding fleet. Tesla Korea’s Supercharger network currently includes 166 sites with 1,133 stalls, with V4 units planned for nationwide highway rest areas to boost long-distance travel. The company also operates seven stores and 15 service centers, though plans are underway to double both by 2027. A new store in Incheon’s Songdo district is scheduled to open by December 2025, enhancing accessibility for western Seoul-area customers.
Seo concluded, “Through all-encompassing investments spanning products, charging infrastructure, and service networks, Tesla Korea will deliver the most refined electric vehicle experience to Korean customers.”
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Tesla China delivery centers packed as Q4 2025 enters its final month
Fresh photos from delivery centers in the country show rows upon rows of Model Ys and Model 3s.
Tesla’s delivery centers in China are filled with vehicles as the company ramps up for its final push in Q4 2025. Fresh photos from delivery centers in the country show rows upon rows of Model Ys and Model 3s, signaling strong end-of-quarter momentum.
A delivery push for Q4 2025
A recent aerial shot from a Tesla delivery center in China captures the company’s efforts to deliver as many vehicles as possible as the year comes to a close. As could be seen in the image, which was posted by on X by Tesla enthusiast Nic Cruz Patane, the facility was filled with numerous Model Y and Model 3 units, each vehicle seemingly ready to be handed over to customers.
Echoing the scene, another post, reportedly from two weeks prior, showed a similar scene in a Shanghai location, which was packed with Model Y units. X user Roberto Nores shared the photo, noting that the image also shows multiple Model Y Ls, a six-seat extended wheelbase version of the popular all-electric crossover.
Towards a strong Q4 finish
China remains Tesla’s volume powerhouse, accounting for a good portion of the company’s global deliveries in recent quarters. That being said, reports did emerge in early November stating that the company only reached 26,006 retail sales during October, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The reasons for this remain to be seen, though a focus on exports could have been a contributing factor.
Tesla China does seem to be hinting at some momentum this November. Just recently, Tesla watchers observed that the order page for the Model Y in China shows a message informing customers that those who wish to guarantee delivery by the end of the year should purchase an inventory unit. This was despite the Model Y RWD and Model Y L showing an estimated delivery timeline of 4-8 weeks, and the Model Y Long Range RWD and Model Y Long Range AWD showing 4-13 weeks.
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Elon Musk shares SpaceX’s directive that destroys a prevalent media narrative
Tesla Cybertruck welcomed with open arms in South Korea
