News
SpaceX will transition all launches to Falcon 9 Block 5 rockets after next mission
SpaceX’s 13th reuse of a Falcon 9 booster marked the second-to-last orbital mission of older boosters before the rocket’s highly reusable Block 5 upgrade takes over all future commercial launches.
If only for the staggering rise of SpaceX’s program of reusable rockets, June 4’s Falcon 9 launch was novel and thrilling in part because its flight-proven booster was intentionally stripped of all reuse-related hardware to bestow as much performance as possible on the mission’s large geostationary communications satellite payload, named SES-12. While this practice of intentionally expending non-Block 5 flight-proven boosters after launch has actually been fairly common over the course of the last seven Falcon 9 reflights, excluding Falcon Heavy – SpaceX is, in essence, betting heavily on the viability and success of the rocket’s quasi-final Block 5 upgrade.
SpaceX’s second to last commercial launch with a non-Block 5 Falcon 9 was completed around 1 am EST June 4. It’s once flight-proven booster ended its life in the Atlantic soon after liftoff. (Tom Cross)
Following June 4’s SES-12 launch, after which Falcon 9 S1 (B1040, previously flown on the September 2017 launch of a classified X-37B spaceplane) arced down its final parabola into the Atlantic, SpaceX has just a single commercial launch of a Block 4 booster scheduled. In fact, that launch happens to be next up on the company’s manifest: currently no earlier than (NET) June 28, CRS-15 will see the same booster (B1045) that launched NASA’s TESS exoplanet observatory scarcely ten weeks prior send a refurbished Cargo Dragon to the International Space Station. After CRS-15, which will also see its booster expended in the Atlantic, just one flightworthy Block 4 rocket will remain in SpaceX’s fleet, and that Falcon 9 booster is understood to be undergoing refurbishment for its final reflight. That mission, however, is a suborbital demonstration designed to prove that SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft can wrest its human passengers out of harm’s way in the event of a launch vehicle failure during flight (SpaceX already proved it can accomplish the same task while the rocket is still on the launch pad in a 2015 demo).
https://twitter.com/_TomCross_/status/1003509362906853376
No turning back now
While a critical path for SpaceX’s future of reliably delivering crew to orbit, its suborbital nature makes categorically distinct from past and future Falcon launches, all of which have been conducted with the intent of placing payload(s) into Earth orbit. Thus we arrive back at B1045 and CRS-15, currently scheduled as both SpaceX’s next launch and the final orbital mission before Falcon 9/Heavy Block 5 becomes the company’s only operational route to space for at least the next two years, give or take half a year. It’s thus somewhat poetic that the booster tasked with CRS-15 will easily smash SpaceX’s previous record for refurbishment (135 days) by almost a factor of two, going from drone ship recovery to reflight in as few as 71 days. Whatever it becomes, that refurbishment record will likely be broken by the first Block 5 reflight, a trend that will almost certainly continue until SpaceX reaches Musk’s fabled 24-hour turnaround, perhaps before the end of next year.
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- A flight-proven Falcon 9, B1040, looking particularly well-done before its second and final launch on June 4. (Tom Cross)
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- SES-12’s Block 4 booster roars into the air on its final flight. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon 9 Block 5 completed its first launch on May 11, carrying the Bangabandhu-1 communications satellite to geostationary transfer orbit. (Tom Cross)
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- It may not immediately look like a major departure from past versions, but Block 5 could theoretically usher in 10-100 reflights of a single rocket booster. (SpaceX)
Extrapolating from the launch company’s recent history, the culmination of CRS-15 will potentially leave SpaceX with as few as two Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters as its entire flight-ready rocket fleet, despite anywhere from 12 to 16 launches remaining on the second half of the company’s 2018 manifest. Currently standing at six boosters produced in 2018, roughly eight to be completed before the end of the year per COO and President Gwynne Shotwell (in this case likely boosters B1048-1056), an achievement that would grow the ranks of the company’s fleet of new Block 5 boosters to ten total. But, assuming a core is delivered from the Hawthorne factory every month, SpaceX will need to reuse Block 5 boosters as early as July to prevent considerable delays to their 2018 manifest, delays that would undoubtedly push multiple missions into 2019.
-->Here’s to hoping that the Block 5 upgrade is as incredible of a success as SpaceX has designed it to be. Follow the Teslarati team for real-time updates, glimpses behind the scenes, and photos from Teslarati’s East and West Coast photographers.
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News
Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota Connected Europe designer Karim Dia Toubajie has highlighted a particular trend that became evident in Waymo’s Q3 2025 occupancy stats. As it turned out, 90% of the trips taken by the driverless taxis carried two or fewer passengers.
These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.
Toyota designer observes a trend
Karim Dia Toubajie, Lead Product Designer (Sustainable Mobility) at Toyota Connected Europe, analyzed Waymo’s latest California Public Utilities Commission filings and posted the results on LinkedIn this week.
“90% of robotaxi trips have 2 or less passengers, so why are we using 5-seater vehicles?” Toubajie asked. He continued: “90% of trips have 2 or less people, 75% of trips have 1 or less people.” He accompanied his comments with a graphic showing Waymo’s occupancy rates, which showed 71% of trips having one passenger, 15% of trips having two passengers, 6% of trips having three passengers, 5% of trips having zero passengers, and only 3% of trips having four passengers.
The data excludes operational trips like depot runs or charging, though Toubajie pointed out that most of the time, Waymo’s massive self-driving taxis are really just transporting 1 or 2 people, at times even no passengers at all. “This means that most of the time, the vehicle being used significantly outweighs the needs of the trip,” the Toyota designer wrote in his post.
-->Cybercab suddenly looks perfectly sized
Toubajie gave a nod to Tesla’s approach. “The Tesla Cybercab announced in 2024, is a 2-seater robotaxi with a 50kWh battery but I still believe this is on the larger side of what’s required for most trips,” he wrote.
With Waymo’s own numbers now proving 90% of demand fits two seats or fewer, the wheel-less, lidar-free Cybercab now looks like the smartest play in the room. The Cybercab is designed to be easy to produce, with CEO Elon Musk commenting that its product line would resemble a consumer electronics factory more than an automotive plant. This means that the Cybercab could saturate the roads quickly once it is deployed.
While the Cybercab will likely take the lion’s share of Tesla’s ride-hailing passengers, the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover would be perfect for the remaining 9% of riders who require larger vehicles. This should be easy to implement for Tesla, as the Model Y and Model 3 are both mass-market vehicles.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk and James Cameron find middle ground in space and AI despite political differences
Musk responded with some positive words for the director on X.
Avatar director James Cameron has stated that he can still agree with Elon Musk on space exploration and AI safety despite their stark political differences.
In an interview with Puck’s The Town podcast, the liberal director praised Musk’s SpaceX achievements and said higher priorities must unite them, such as space travel and artificial intelligence. Musk responded with some positive words for the director on X.
A longtime mutual respect
Cameron and Musk have bonded over technology for years. As far back as 2011, Cameron told NBC News that “Elon is making very strong strides. I think he’s the likeliest person to step into the shoes of the shuttle program and actually provide human access to low Earth orbit. So… go, Elon.” Cameron was right, as SpaceX would go on to become the dominant force in spaceflight over the years.
Even after Musk’s embrace of conservative politics and his roles as senior advisor and former DOGE head, Cameron refused to cancel his relationship with the CEO. “I can separate a person and their politics from the things that they want to accomplish if they’re aligned with what I think are good goals,” Cameron said. Musk appreciated the director’s comments, stating that “Jim understands physics, which is rare in Hollywood.”
Shared AI warnings
Both men have stated that artificial intelligence could be an existential threat to humanity, though Musk has noted that Tesla’s products such as Optimus could usher in an era of sustainable abundance. Musk recently predicted that money and jobs could become irrelevant with advancing AI, while Cameron warned of a deeper crisis, as noted in a Fox News report.
-->“Because the overall risk of AI in general… is that we lose purpose as people. We lose jobs. We lose a sense of, ‘Well, what are we here for?’” Cameron said. “We are these flawed biological machines, and a computer can be theoretically more precise, more correct, faster, all of those things. And that’s going to be a threshold existential issue.”
He concluded: “I just think it’s important for us as a human civilization to prioritize. We’ve got to make this Earth our spaceship. That’s really what we need to be thinking.”
News
Blue Origin announces Super-Heavy New Glenn 9×4 to Rival SpaceX Starship
The announcement followed the company’s successful NG-2 launch on November 13.
Blue Origin has revealed plans to develop New Glenn 9×4, a “super heavy” rocket designed to deliver 70 metric tons to low-Earth orbit and directly compete with SpaceX’s Starship.
The announcement followed the company’s successful NG-2 launch on November 13, which deployed NASA’s ESCAPADE (Escape and Plasma Acceleration Dynamics Explorers) Mars mission and landed the first stage.
Upgraded engines and reusability
As noted in a Universe Today report, Blue Origin will roll out upgraded BE-4 engines producing 640,000 lbf each, up from 550,000 lbf, starting with NG-3. This should boost the New Glenn rocket’s total first-stage thrust to 4.5 million pounds. Upper-stage BE-3U engines are expected to improve from 320,000 lbf to 400,000 lbf over the next few flights as well.
“These enhancements will immediately benefit customers already manifested on New Glenn to fly to destinations including low-Earth orbit, the Moon, and beyond. Additional vehicle upgrades include a reusable fairing to support increased flight rates, an updated lower-cost tank design, and a higher-performing and reusable thermal protection system to improve turnaround time,” Blue Origin noted.
New Glenn “Super Heavy” 9×4
The super-heavy New Glenn 9×4, with nine BE-4s on the booster, four BE-3Us on the upper stage, will feature an 8.7-meter payload fairing. Blue Origin expects New Glenn 9×4 to be capable of transporting 70 metric tons to LEO, 14 tons to GSO, and 20 tons to trans-lunar injection, as noted by the company in a blog post. This is very impressive, as New Glenn 9×4’s capacity exceeds Falcon Heavy, SpaceX’s largest rocket available to consumers today. Falcon Heavy is capable of carrying up to 64 metric tons to low Earth orbit in a fully expendable configuration.
-->That being said, SpaceX’s Starship’s capacity is extremely impressive. As per SpaceX, Starship is designed to be capable of carrying up to 100-150 metric tonnes to orbit in its fully reusable configuration. At its expendable configuration, Starship’s capacity enters unheard-of territory, with SpaceX stating that the vehicle could transport 250 metric tonnes of cargo.
Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all
Elon Musk and James Cameron find middle ground in space and AI despite political differences
