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What Tesla has in store for 2017: Model 3, Model Y, Solar Roof and more
Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed his vision of the future through the company’s Master Plan Part Deux on July 20, 2016. Filled with predictions about his complex and detailed plan to marry self-driving electric vehicles covering all segments, with solar rooftops and integrated battery storage units, 2017 should be the year when many of them begin to come into focus in a way the public can visualize.
Tesla Model 3 Deliveries
Arguably the most anticipated product on Tesla’s roadmap is its affordable mass market Model 3 mid-size sedan which will see first deliveries take place at the end of 2017. The car has been in “pencils down mode” since summer, meaning the final design has been locked in and the process of getting it ready for production has begun. Elon has hinted that plans call for a volume production date that would begin sometime near the summer of 2017.
Silver Model 3 seen at Tesla’s employee-only Q3 celebration party in San Jose, CA
Goals should always exceed one’s grasp and Musk recognizes that starting volume production on Model 3 by the end of July is going to be next to impossible. He was chastened a bit by the roll out of the Model X, which began in September, 2015. A number of production glitches delayed full production of that car until well into the second quarter of 2016.
That experience tempered Elon’s irrepressible optimism with a dose of real world experience. Even assuming production did begin next summer, it would result in relatively few cars being produced. Those would get into the hands of customers living near the factory in Fremont, California so that any post-production issues can be addressed quickly and efficiently. The lessons learned would then be used to improve the quality of the cars to come.
Machines That Builds Machines, Come to Life
A main area of focus for Musk and Tesla’s production arm is devising ways to reap significant benefits from a total rethinking of the manufacturing process by “building the machine that builds the machine”. Having recently acquired a leading engineering firm in Germany focused on building advanced automation tools, Tesla believes that a properly designed factory could operate at 5 to 10 times the speed of today’s production facilities.
Drone video of Tesla’s Gigafactory shows the battery factory more than doubling in size
“Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine — turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle.”, said Musk at the Tesla Gigafactory Grand Opening celebration.
Plans to nearly double the size of Tesla’s Fremont, Calif. factory were recently approved by the city. Tesla plans to build as many as 500,000 cars a year, most of them Model 3s, by the end of 2018.
Tesla Model Y Compact SUV and Tesla Pickup Truck Unveiling
An electric compact SUV based on the Model 3 chassis, dubbed Model Y, will round out Tesla’s S-E-X-Y range of vehicles. That, along with a Tesla pickup and a Tesla ‘minibus’, will fulfill the major automotive segments the Silicon Valley automaker and energy company aims to cover with its upcoming fleet of electric cars. Expect prototypes to be unveiled sometime in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”, reads Tesla’s blog post.
Tesla Model Y Compact SUV rendering [Source: RM Car Design]
Model Y (compact SUV) off Model 3 chassis. Tesla Bus/Minibus/Spacebus off Model X.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2016
In addition, Tesla is thinking about creating a self driving minibus that could transport up to 10 passengers, according to Musk’s Master Plan Part Deux. It would be based on the Model X chassis. Passengers could summon the bus to their location and it would deliver them to their destination with little or no walking required — something traditional public transportation vehicles cannot do.
Tesla job openings reveal that developments for future vehicles are already being planned for.
Roll Out of Autopilot 2.0 and Self-Driving Features
2017 is also the year when Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot should become fully operational. All cars produced after October 19 are equipped with the hardware 2 package of cameras, radar, and advanced ultrasound sensors that will allow them to operate without human input. All that remains to be done is accumulate enough human logged driving miles to flush out the confidence level for the company’s self-driving algorithms.
Tesla has already accumulated more than 1.2 billion miles of driving history and is adding 3 million more miles every day. Elon believes it will require a total of 6 billion miles of driving experience before autonomous driving is reliable enough to convince regulators to allow self-driving cars to be allowed on public roads. He is also aware that approval will vary widely from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, both within the United States and in other countries.
Tesla demonstrates the capabilities of a Full Self-Driving Model X
Musk plans to showcase a fully autonomous trip from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017. According to Musk, the cross country journey in a Full Self-Driving Tesla would take place “without the need for a single touch” from a human driver, including recharging the car’s battery.
“Our goal is, we’ll to be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York,” According to Musk, the trip would be “from home in LA, to dropping you off in Times Square, and then the car will go park itself.”
Tesla Will Begin Solar Roof Sales
Now that SolarCity has officially become part of Tesla Motors, the Solar Roof products introduced in October will become available next year to customers throughout the US. Tesla is revamping its retail stores to include information about its solar products and the Powerwall 2, its latest residential energy storage product. Musk envisions a seamless, pain-free process that will allow solar customers to order a Solar Roof and all the details are handled completely by Tesla.
Combining energy production with local energy storage will permit more homeowners to reduce their reliance on the local utility company, which will insulate them against future rate hikes. It will also mean fewer carbon emissions from generating electricity, reinforcing Musk’s goal of a sustainable future.
The Solar Roof will be offered in four styles and the anticipated to go on sale during the summer of 2017, starting with the most popular style first. Other styles will become available at the rate of one additional style every three months.
Tesla has expanded its branded ‘For Business’ Supercharger program that it launched last year, as yet another company is using the platform to attract EV owners to its business and utilize a unique advertising opportunity.
Francis Energy of Oklahoma is launching four Superchargers in Norman, where the University of Oklahoma is located. The Superchargers, which are fitted with branding for Francis Energy, will officially open tomorrow.
It will not be the final Supercharger location that Francis Energy plans to open, the company confirmed to EVWire.
Back in early September, Tesla launched the new “Supercharger for Business” program in an effort to give businesses the ability to offer EV charging at custom rates. It would give their businesses visibility and would also cater to employees or customers.
“Purchase and install Superchargers at your business,” Tesla wrote on a page on its website for the new program. “Superchargers are compatible with all electric vehicles, bringing EV drivers to your business by offering convenient, reliable charging.”
The first site opened in Land O’ Lakes, Florida, which is Northeast of Tampa, as a company called Suncoast launched the Superchargers for local EV owners.
Tesla launches its new branded Supercharger for Business with first active station
The program also does a great job at expanding infrastructure for EV owners, which is something that needs to be done to encourage more people to purchase Teslas and other electric cars.
Francis Energy operates at least 14 EV charging locations in Oklahoma, spanning from Durant to Oklahoma City and nearly everywhere in between. Filings from the company, listed by Supercharge.info, show the company’s plans to convert some of them to Tesla Superchargers, potentially utilizing the new Supercharger for Business program to advertise.
Moving forward, more companies will likely utilize Tesla’s Supercharger for Business program as it presents major advantages in a variety of ways, especially with advertising and creating a place for EV drivers to gain range in their cars.
Tesla Cybercab is perhaps the most highly-anticipated project that the company plans to roll out this year, and as it is undergoing its testing phase in pre-production currently, there are some things to work through with it.
Over the weekend, an image of the Cybercab being loaded onto a tow truck started circulating on the internet, and people began to speculate as to what the issue could be.
Hmmmmmm… https://t.co/L5hWcOXQkb pic.twitter.com/OJBDyHNTMj
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 11, 2026
The Cybercab can clearly be seen with a Police Officer and perhaps the tow truck driver by its side, being loaded onto, or even potentially unloaded from, the truck.
However, it seems unlikely it was being offloaded, as its operation would get it to this point for testing to begin with.
It appears, at first glance, that it needs assistance getting back to wherever it came from; likely Gigafactory Texas or potentially a Bay Area facility.
The Cybercab was also spotted in Buffalo, New York, last week, potentially undergoing cold-weather testing, but it doesn’t appear that’s where this incident took place.
It is important to remember that the Cybercab is currently undergoing some rigorous testing scenarios, which include range tests and routine public road operation. These things help Tesla assess any potential issue the vehicle could run into after it starts routine production and heads to customers, or for the Robotaxi platform operation.
This is not a one-off issue, either. Tesla had some instances with the Semi where it was seen broken down on the side of a highway three years ago. The all-electric Semi has gone on to be successful in its early pilot program, as companies like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo. have had very positive remarks.
The Cybercab’s future is bright, and it is important to note that no vehicle model has ever gone its full life without a breakdown. It happens, it’s a car.
Nevertheless, it is important to note that there has been no official word on what happened with this particular Cybercab unit, but it is crucial to remember that this is the pre-production testing phase, and these things are more constructive than anything.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla expands its branded ‘For Business’ Superchargers
Tesla Cybercab ‘breakdown’ image likely is not what it seems
