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What Tesla has in store for 2017: Model 3, Model Y, Solar Roof and more

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed his vision of the future through the company’s Master Plan Part Deux on July 20, 2016. Filled with predictions about his complex and detailed plan to marry self-driving electric vehicles covering all segments, with solar rooftops and integrated battery storage units, 2017 should be the year when many of them begin to come into focus in a way the public can visualize.

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries

Arguably the most anticipated product on Tesla’s roadmap is its affordable mass market Model 3 mid-size sedan which will see first deliveries take place at the end of 2017. The car has been in “pencils down mode” since summer, meaning the final design has been locked in and the process of getting it ready for production has begun. Elon has hinted that plans call for a volume production date that would begin sometime near the summer of 2017.

Silver Model 3 seen at Tesla’s employee-only Q3 celebration party in San Jose, CA

Goals should always exceed one’s grasp and Musk recognizes that starting volume production on Model 3 by the end of July is going to be next to impossible. He was chastened a bit by the roll out of the Model X, which began in September, 2015. A number of production glitches delayed full production of that car until well into the second quarter of 2016.

That experience tempered Elon’s irrepressible optimism with a dose of real world experience. Even assuming production did begin next summer, it would result in relatively few cars being produced. Those would get into the hands of customers living near the factory in Fremont, California so that any post-production issues can be addressed quickly and efficiently. The lessons learned would then be used to improve the quality of the cars to come.

Machines That Builds Machines, Come to Life

A main area of focus for Musk and Tesla’s production arm is devising ways to reap significant benefits from a total rethinking of the manufacturing process by “building the machine that builds the machine”. Having recently acquired a leading engineering firm in Germany focused on building advanced automation tools, Tesla believes that a properly designed factory could operate at 5 to 10 times the speed of today’s production facilities.

Drone video of Tesla’s Gigafactory shows the battery factory more than doubling in size

“Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine — turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle.”, said Musk at the Tesla Gigafactory Grand Opening celebration.

Plans to nearly double the size of Tesla’s Fremont, Calif. factory were recently approved by the city. Tesla plans to build as many as 500,000 cars a year, most of them Model 3s, by the end of 2018.

Tesla Model Y Compact SUV and Tesla Pickup Truck Unveiling

An electric compact SUV based on the Model 3 chassis, dubbed Model Y, will round out Tesla’s S-E-X-Y range of vehicles. That, along with a Tesla pickup and a Tesla ‘minibus’, will fulfill the major automotive segments the Silicon Valley automaker and energy company aims to cover with its upcoming fleet of electric cars. Expect prototypes to be unveiled sometime in 2017

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“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”, reads Tesla’s blog post.

Tesla Model Y Compact SUV rendering [Source: RM Car Design]

Musk also says Tesla is already working on a semi-truck for hauling. Heavy trucks account for about 50% of the emissions from transportation. With Musk’s focus on creating a sustainable society, trucks will need to be big part of the picture. Both  the pickup truck and the Tesla Semi are expected to be revealed in concept form during the coming year.

In addition, Tesla is thinking about creating a self driving minibus that could transport up to 10 passengers, according to Musk’s Master Plan Part Deux. It would be based on the Model X chassis. Passengers could summon the bus to their location and it would deliver them to their destination with little or no walking required — something traditional public transportation vehicles cannot do.

Tesla job openings reveal that developments for future vehicles are already being planned for.

Roll Out of Autopilot 2.0 and Self-Driving Features

2017 is also the year when Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot should become fully operational. All cars produced after October 19 are equipped with the hardware 2 package of cameras, radar, and advanced ultrasound sensors that will allow them to operate without human input. All that remains to be done is accumulate enough human logged driving miles to flush out the confidence level for the company’s self-driving algorithms.

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Tesla has already accumulated more than 1.2 billion miles of driving history and is adding 3 million more miles every day. Elon believes it will require a total of 6 billion miles of driving experience before autonomous driving is reliable enough to convince regulators to allow self-driving cars to be allowed on public roads. He is also aware that approval will vary widely from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, both within the United States and in other countries.

Tesla demonstrates the capabilities of a Full Self-Driving Model X

Musk plans to showcase a fully autonomous trip from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017. According to Musk, the cross country journey in a Full Self-Driving Tesla would take place “without the need for a single touch” from a human driver, including recharging the car’s battery.

“Our goal is, we’ll to be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York,” According to Musk, the trip would be “from home in LA, to dropping you off in Times Square, and then the car will go park itself.”

Tesla Will Begin Solar Roof Sales

Now that SolarCity has officially become part of Tesla Motors, the Solar Roof products introduced in October will become available next year to customers throughout the US. Tesla is revamping its retail stores to include information about its solar products and the Powerwall 2, its latest residential energy storage product. Musk envisions a seamless, pain-free process that will allow solar customers to order a Solar Roof and all the details are handled completely by Tesla.

Combining energy production with local energy storage will permit more homeowners to reduce their reliance on the local utility company, which will insulate them against future rate hikes. It will also mean fewer carbon emissions from generating electricity, reinforcing Musk’s goal of a sustainable future.

The Solar Roof will be offered in four styles and the anticipated to go on sale during the summer of 2017, starting with the most popular style first. Other styles will become available at the rate of one additional style every three months.

 

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s next Uranium in Uranus merch is Boring Company’s weirdest tease yet

Elon Musk teased a glowing new Boring Company merch idea, complete with a Geiger counter.

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Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok
Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok

Elon Musk teased the next piece of Boring Company merchandise on X Saturday, and it is exactly as unserious as fans of the company’s product history have come to expect. “The next @boringcompany merch will put Uranium in Uranus,” Musk wrote in a thread posted early Saturday morning. He followed up by explaining that the item would glow in the dark, “because otherwise how could you find it,” and that a Geiger counter would be sold separately as “an optional strap-on.”

Musk closed the thread with a line that doubles as a mission statement for the tunneling company’s merchandise arm: “It’s not easy coming up with something that is both outrageously unsellable and yet extremely popular.”

The Boring Company has built a small but consistent side business out of novelty items that start as jokes and end up selling out. The company’s Not-a-Flamethrower raised roughly $10 million in a few days back in 2018, moving all 20,000 units it produced. Its Burnt Hair perfume, priced around $100 a bottle, sold out fast enough that scalpers were flipping units on eBay for ten times the retail price. Boring Bricks, made from tunneling spoil, followed the same playbook of teasing a product on X months before it became real.

Musk has not said what the actual item will be, only that it involves uranium and glows in the dark. Given the pattern, that vagueness is probably intentional. Past merch announcements have started as one-line jokes and taken weeks or months to turn into an actual product listing on the company’s site, and there is no guarantee this one follows through at all.

The timing lines up with a period of real momentum for the Boring Company outside of the joke merchandise. The company said last week it plans to double the number of operational stations on its Vegas Loop by the end of the year, a target tied to a hiring push for drivers and operations managers. Prufrock-5, one of the company’s tunnel boring machines, also just wrapped a test tunnel in Bastrop, Texas, and is expected to relaunch on its next assignment in November.

Whether the uranium joke turns into an actual product remains to be seen. Musk’s post did not include a price, a shipping date, or even a name for the item, which has historically meant a Boring Company website page goes up quietly, password protected, sometime before an announcement.

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NASA taps SpaceX for more astronaut missions as Boeing Starliner remains grounded

NASA just gave SpaceX a $946 million contract for three more astronaut missions through 2030.

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NASA has awarded SpaceX a $946 million contract modification covering three more astronaut missions to the International Space Station, according to an announcement the agency published Friday. The award adds Crew-15, Crew-16, and Crew-17 to SpaceX’s existing Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contract, bringing the agreement’s total value to $5.92 billion across 17 flights.

SpaceX confirmed the award on X, writing that it was excited for Falcon 9 and Dragon to launch NASA’s Crew-15, 16, and 17 missions to the Space Station from Florida. The new missions cover ground, launch, in orbit, and return operations, along with cargo transport and a lifeboat capability while docked at the station, and the period of performance runs through 2030.

The award follows a notice of intent NASA issued in May, when the agency first signaled it would purchase up to six additional post certification missions from SpaceX. Teslarati covered that filing at the time, noting NASA cited technical issues and schedule delays encountered by Boeing as a driving factor. Friday’s contract modification locks in three of those six missions, with the remaining three left open for NASA to award later, potentially to Boeing if Starliner clears certification.

Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner has still not flown an operational crew rotation mission for NASA. The spacecraft’s most recent crewed test flight in 2024 ended without the astronauts returning aboard Starliner, and the company has spent the time since working through thruster problems. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said this week that SpaceX is not retiring Crew Dragon today, for sure, while stopping short of committing to fly it past 2030.

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Crew-12 is currently docked at the space station, and NASA has said Crew-13 is targeting a launch in the coming weeks. The newly awarded Crew-15 through Crew-17 missions extend SpaceX’s role as NASA’s primary way of getting astronauts to and from orbit well into the back half of the decade, regardless of what happens with Starliner or Starship in the meantime.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

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Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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