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Tesla 3D labeling is the next big leap for Autopilot
Tesla’s 3D labeling efforts are integral to the development of its Full Self-Driving suite. Using over 2.2 billion miles of real-world driving data from its electric vehicle fleet, the electric car maker has a treasure trove of information about how human drivers behave.
Elon Musk recently confirmed that Tesla is finishing work on Autopilot core foundation code and 3D labeling, and once these are done, users can expect the electric carmaker to roll out more functionalities in a potentially more efficient manner. More advanced features such as Reverse Summon will also be rolled out.
Tesla 3D Labeling: The Next Big Thing
The Tesla CEO has tagged 3D labeling as the next big thing for the company’s efforts to achieve full self-driving. “In terms of labeling, labeling with video in all eight cameras simultaneously. This is a really, I mean in terms of labeling efficiency, arguably like a three order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency where Tesla vehicles use all of its eight cameras simultaneously, and that the company has improved significantly in terms of labeling efficiency,” Musk said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.
During Autonomy Day last year, Tesla’s AI head Andrej Karpathy gave the electric vehicle community an idea of how labeling is done. He said annotating data is a very expensive process that initially involved people processing data, but Tesla has also been using information from its fleet to automate the process of labeling using different mechanisms.
For example, in predicting cut-ins, Tesla taps into its fleet for data on such incidents. This information is then automatically annotated and used to train the neural network, which in turn learns from recognizable patterns. This information is then spun until the neural network is trained enough. Improvements in the neural network can then be rolled out as an update for Autopilot.
The same is true according to Karpathy when it comes to object detection. Tesla sources data from its fleet to learn more about different objects and anomalies on the road. With automated 3D labeling, the neural network can more efficiently process the information and learn even about the rarest things one can encounter on the road.
Karpathy and Musk explained how annotations from its fleet help with path prediction. Using trajectories collected from the real-world, the neural network can improve its driving behavior, say while approaching a corner that it doesn’t actively see. This smarter neural network is perfectly demonstrated by an older Model X with early-gen Autopilot negotiating a muddy rural backroad recently, after a storm in the United Kingdom.
All of these things form part of the equation to achieve Full Self-Driving capabilities. Likely through 3D labeling improvements in the past year or so, Tesla has immensely improved driving visualizations in vehicles equipped with Hardware 3, which now identify traffic lights, garbage cans, and detailed road markings, among others. Thus, Elon Musk’s explanation about rewriting the Autopilot foundational code and 3D labeling could be a way of emphasizing that Tesla owners’ investment in the company’s Full Self-Driving suite would be proven worth it and more soon.
Tesla’s FSD computer and autonomy software will transform how humans travel. The company’s vehicles will be smart enough to drive like humans and eventually make the roads a few times safer for everyone. This may also pave the way for Robotaxis and help achieve Musk’s vision of Teslas earning for their owners while they are busy with work or even while relaxing at home. Tesla Robotaxis would be an attractive form of transportation as they will be more cost-efficient compared to driving personal cars, as predicted by ARK Invest.
Autonomy As Key To Profitability
Autonomy will spell profits for Tesla, as Elon Musk explained during the company’s Q4 2019 earnings call. In order to achieve sustained profitability, Tesla needs to produce high volume units with high margins. Musk appears to consider autonomy as key to Tesla’s high margins as well.
“As we’re close to Full Self-Driving, that is just going to become more and more compelling. So that’s for our financial standpoint, that’s the real mind-blowing situation is high-volume, high-margin because of autonomy,” Musk said.
With FSD capabilities, Tesla adds more value proposition that can help sway even more customers to purchase its electric vehicles from the Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, or the Cybertruck. Depending on regulations in specific regions, Tesla can tap into most of its earnings potential, which bodes well since the company has current plans to expand its presence worldwide with Gigafactories in multiple regions.
Tesla’s path to autonomy is only one of the aspects that make it the leader in the electric vehicle industry. Add to that its advancements on car connectivity and battery technology and one will complete the equation why legacy carmakers with the deepest of pockets can only watch in amazement as a relatively young electric car maker dominates the emerging EV industry.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
