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Tesla’s $40M loan that kept the lights on, and what it teaches all of us
Oftentimes, many of us forget to look around and realize how fortunate we are to have what we have. In times where tensions are relatively high based on the current election, a pandemic, and a string of bad luck that we have all seemed to adopt throughout 2020, there are a few appropriate moments that allow us to look back and realize how truly grateful we should be, even when things aren’t looking very promising.
A perfect example of this came earlier this week on November 3rd. On that day, just twelve short years ago, we were reminded that Tesla secured a $40 million loan that kept the lights on and gave the small and unlikely-successful automaker a chance to succeed. It was “the last hour of the last day possible,” CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter. “We were 3 days away from bankruptcy.”
The story of Musk and Tesla’s near destruction twelve years ago puts a lot into perspective. For me, it is reminiscent of an old saying, “It ain’t over until the fat lady sings.” While comical, it is true, and it shows that anything can happen while there is still time.
Musk and Tesla were trying to build a car company in arguably the most challenging time for American auto in the country’s history. Numerous companies were seeking government assistance to keep their doors open, jobs were disappearing, and the once-roaring American economy was crippled by the Financial Crisis of 2008.
Not only was it one of the worst times financially to start a car company, but Tesla wasn’t aiming to build a run-of-the-mill gas car. It wanted to completely change the tune of what a car was in the United States. Battery-powered cars were not popular, nor were they widely accepted. They were a dream of many, but never did anyone think they would be a successful passenger transportation source shortly.
Well, everyone but Elon Musk and his team of engineers at Tesla.
Musk acknowledges the hardships of the time head-on. “Extremely difficult to raise money for an electric car startup (considered super quirky back then), while stalwarts like GM & Chrysler were going bankrupt,” he added to his chain of Tweets regarding the situation. And while he was suffering to keep Tesla’s lights on, Musk concluded that the only way would be to put the last of his money into the failing company. “I put in my last money, even though I thought we would still fail. But, it was either that or certain death for Tesla.”
Fast forward a few years to 2017. Tesla is doing well, but it’s working to ramp up the mass-production efforts of the Model 3. Finally, an EV that can fit the budgets of many people worldwide, Tesla was working to create a battery-powered car that had good performance and acceptable range ratings. But it wasn’t easy, and it almost resulted in the company going bankrupt.
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When asked about the Model 3 ramp, Musk said that Tesla was “about a month” away from going broke once again. “The Model 3 ramp was extreme stress & pain for a long time — from mid-2017 to mid-2019. Production & logistics hell,” Musk added.
A few more years forward: let’s look at 2020.
Tesla is the most valuable car company in the world. It has recorded five straight profitable quarters. It is coming off of the most deliveries and production numbers for a quarter ever. It is building more Gigafactories.
Most importantly, Tesla is influencing the automotive industry. Companies that never believed in EVs are being forced to develop them. If they don’t, they’ll inevitably fall behind.
Through all the tough times and adversity that Tesla faced, it always came through. An unlikely competitor entering a market with new technology in a time when companies were hellbent on keeping their doors open by any means necessary, Tesla somehow survived.
In times where the country is almost equally divided on who they would like to run the United States for the next four years, conflicting opinions on a global pandemic are voiced regularly, and other social issues are talked about daily, it is always important to remember stories like these. With almost a negative chance of winning, Tesla somehow pulled through on two separate occasions. Patience, hard work, and a little bit of luck took the unlikely car company from the depths of Chapter 11 to superstardom in the car industry.
If this is the only bit of positivity you read this week, I truly hope it helps you realize how grateful you should be in the grand scheme of things. Sometimes, the cards just aren’t in your favor, and you have a few downswings that make you question whether what you are doing is the right thing. The dark times certainly are tough, but without darkness, then the light would mean nothing to us.
I use this newsletter to share my thoughts on what is going on in the Tesla world. If you want to talk to me directly, you can email me or reach me on Twitter. I don’t bite, be sure to reach out!
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
