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Tesla’s battery strategy will be key to Cybertruck and Semi’s market disruption
Elon Musk has remarked that Tesla has arguably the most exciting product roadmap of any company today. With vehicles like the Semi and the Cybertruck coming in the pipeline, this statement rings true. But things will not be as easy as simply setting up production lines for the upcoming vehicles. For Tesla to properly ramp the Semi, for example, the company would have to make sure that it can get enough cells for the vehicle first.
Producing electric cars is no easy task, and a lot of the challenges in EV making are connected in one way or another to vehicles’ batteries. This is something that is being learned by veteran carmakers like Jaguar today, as inadequate supply from battery companies like LG Chem has resulted in a halt of production for premium EVs like the I-PACE. Tesla is certainly aware of the battery supply challenges that EV makers face. This is one of the reasons why Gigafactory Nevada was constructed.
Giga Nevada was built to support the company’s Model 3 ramp. Designed to manufacture the 2170 cells of the Model 3 with battery partner Panasonic, the massive facility forms the backbone of Tesla’s first foray into the mass market. But the story lies far beyond the Model 3 today. Tesla has an even higher-volume vehicle coming, the Model Y. The Cybertruck will likely sell in large volumes too, provided that the market embraces it. Just like the all-electric pickup, the Semi might see sufficient demand from the trucking market once it’s released as well, considering the cost benefits that the vehicle offers.
Tesla is in a constant state of change, and this cannot be represented better than the company’s batteries. President of Automotive Jerome Guillen has noted that Tesla’s batteries are never static since they’re always being improved. Today, it is becoming more and more evident that Tesla’s batteries are among the best in the industry, particularly when it comes to energy density. Coupled with its vertically-integrated software, Tesla’s batteries can give vehicles impressive range even if they are not too large.
The Model 3, for example, can squeeze out over 320 miles of range from a 75 kWh battery, and the Model S Long Range Plus can get 390 miles from a 100 kWh pack. This matters a lot, and it shows just how far ahead the company is when it comes to its batteries and their energy density. And this, ultimately, will likely help the company secure enough battery cells to support the ramp of its upcoming EVs, including the Semi and the Cybertruck, both of which are large vehicles that would usually require a massive pack to hit their target range.
Tesla lists the Semi with a range of 300 to 500 miles. The company never announced the size of the Semi’s battery pack, but considering that the vehicle is a Class 8 truck that can accelerate from 0-60 mph in 20 seconds with a full load, speculations for the vehicle’s battery from the EV community included estimates that were as high as 1 MWh. The same concept applies to the Cybertruck. The vehicle is very heavy, and it is expected to have over 500 miles of range. To get this range, a large battery pack would usually be required.
But with Tesla’s constant innovations on its batteries, this does not necessarily have to be the case. Considering that Tesla is closing in on 400 miles per charge on a 100 kWh pack with the Model S, there is a good chance that its next vehicles like the Cybertruck and Semi will be equipped with fewer, but more energy-dense cells than initially expected. Tesla has pretty much developed the skill of drawing out as much range as possible from every cell in an EV, so it’s not too farfetched to infer that the company will be very efficient with the batteries of its upcoming vehicles.
More energy-dense batteries will be key to lowering production costs as well. Tesla may be drastically reducing its battery costs, but the packs themselves still comprise a huge portion of each of its vehicles’ prices. If Tesla can use slightly smaller packs that are still capable of providing optimum range, Tesla can make sure that its EVs like the Semi and the Cybertruck will be as competitive as possible when they enter the market.
The Tesla Semi and the Cybertruck are competing in the trucking and pickup market, two very lucrative segments in the automotive industry. Interestingly, both segments are also ripe for disruption, with most veterans such as Freightliner and the Ford F-150 sticking to tried and tested strategies to thrive today. Tesla needs a key to ensure that it can have a fighting chance when it enters the trucking and pickup segment with the Semi and Cybertruck. If challenges faced by electric car makers today are any indication, it appears that batteries and their energy density will be the difference-maker. Fortunately, these just happen to be two things that Tesla has been obsessively pursuing since the company was founded less than 17 years ago.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas
Fort Bend County approved four incentive agreements Thursday for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar factory.
Fort Bend County commissioners on Thursday approved a package of tax incentives for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar cell factory near Needville, Texas, giving the company one of the last local approvals it needs before it decides where to build. All four Tesla agreements passed 4 to 0.
The votes covered a property tax abatement inside Reinvestment Zone No. 34, a Chapter 381 economic development agreement, a foreign trade zone non-objection paired with payments in lieu of certain taxes, and a separate payment in lieu of taxes “true up” agreement, according to agenda notes from the Fort Bend Commissioners Court meeting.
The project, known internally as “Project Crystal Sun,” would make solar cells and finished modules on roughly 3,000 acres near FM 762 and FM 1994, south of the Brazos River. As Teslarati reported when the filing first surfaced in August, Tesla’s application under the state’s JETI Act splits the investment into $1.5 billion in real property and $8.6 billion in equipment, with 9,712 permanent jobs projected by 2033 and commercial operations targeted for the first quarter of 2029. The plant would handle the full chain from ingot and wafer production through cell testing.
Inside Tesla’s secretive $10 Billion “Project Crystal Sun” filing
Thursday’s approval does not lock in the site. Tesla has told the Texas Comptroller it is still weighing other locations, and site selection adviser David Dennison told Lamar Consolidated ISD trustees in September that the race had narrowed to Fort Bend and one out of state rival with a “very compelling package,” according to the Houston Chronicle. Tesla hopes to decide before the end of 2026, and the incentives still need sign off from the Comptroller and the Governor’s office.
Local officials have now done nearly everything within their control. Commissioners created the reinvestment zone in an August 24 special meeting, with Interim County Judge Daniel Wong formally withdrawing himself over his engineering firm’s past work with Tesla. Lamar CISD trustees voted 7 to 0 on September 15 to advance a JETI agreement that would tax Tesla’s qualifying property at 50 percent of its value for maintenance and operations from 2029 through 2038.
The plant lines up with a target Elon Musk set on Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call in January, when he said the company would “work toward getting 100 GW a year of solar cell production, integrating across the entire supply chain from raw materials all the way to finished solar panels.” In March, Tesla was reported to be negotiating a $2.9 billion purchase of Chinese solar manufacturing equipment bound for Texas. The Houston area already hosts Tesla’s Megafactory in Brookshire, where Megapack 3 production has started. Tesla said on its Q3 call that Megapack supply for 2027 is nearly sold out, and Musk wrote on X Thursday that the company is “increasing production of Megapacks as much as possible,” as demand from data centers climbs.
Tesla revealed plans to develop its own maps internally to fix Navigation issues and give owners more control over their routing.
On the company’s Q3 2026 Earnings Call, a question was asked about FSD Navigation issues, particularly speed limit recognition, parking, and routing. These are issues that surface from version to version and seem to be seriously challenging for Tesla’s AI team to resolve.
Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said in response to the question:
“You’re totally right that we shouldn’t be depending on external people’s maps. So we are building our own maps, but not like the same way as OneMoreMap. We are building an entirely new architecture with essentially AI-based mapping and navigation.”
He continued:
“It’s going to be super awesome. It’s going to be integrated with voice. You can talk to it, ask for different routes. It’s going to learn your personalized preferences, plus the fleet preferences. The collective intelligence of all the cars is going to flow into making the maps and navigation super cool.”
Elluswamy said this issue should be confronted, and the mapping should be available for people by the time the v15 release starts deploying to customers.
“And over the next several months,” he added, “it’s just going to take over all of the navigation functions, parking, destination handling. And it will know you better than you know yourself in some regard for the driving task, and then handle it fully.”
Tesla Summon got insanely good in FSD v14.3.2 — Navigation? Not so much
Navigation is perhaps the most notable complaint with FSD, and although it has gotten better, it is still flawed. Much of the time, FSD will take people on routes that are not preferred by the driver, but Tesla tried to combat this with a routing feature in the Summer 2026 Update.
Tesla currently relies on Google for map data, but it is sort of counterintuitive to believe the company would rely on a third party for this. These improvements will be welcome, as routing and navigation have been such a pain point for so many owners for so long.
Quotes via Motley Fool
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas
Tesla is building its own maps to fix Navigation issues
