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Tesla’s battery strategy will be key to Cybertruck and Semi’s market disruption
Elon Musk has remarked that Tesla has arguably the most exciting product roadmap of any company today. With vehicles like the Semi and the Cybertruck coming in the pipeline, this statement rings true. But things will not be as easy as simply setting up production lines for the upcoming vehicles. For Tesla to properly ramp the Semi, for example, the company would have to make sure that it can get enough cells for the vehicle first.
Producing electric cars is no easy task, and a lot of the challenges in EV making are connected in one way or another to vehicles’ batteries. This is something that is being learned by veteran carmakers like Jaguar today, as inadequate supply from battery companies like LG Chem has resulted in a halt of production for premium EVs like the I-PACE. Tesla is certainly aware of the battery supply challenges that EV makers face. This is one of the reasons why Gigafactory Nevada was constructed.
Giga Nevada was built to support the company’s Model 3 ramp. Designed to manufacture the 2170 cells of the Model 3 with battery partner Panasonic, the massive facility forms the backbone of Tesla’s first foray into the mass market. But the story lies far beyond the Model 3 today. Tesla has an even higher-volume vehicle coming, the Model Y. The Cybertruck will likely sell in large volumes too, provided that the market embraces it. Just like the all-electric pickup, the Semi might see sufficient demand from the trucking market once it’s released as well, considering the cost benefits that the vehicle offers.
Tesla is in a constant state of change, and this cannot be represented better than the company’s batteries. President of Automotive Jerome Guillen has noted that Tesla’s batteries are never static since they’re always being improved. Today, it is becoming more and more evident that Tesla’s batteries are among the best in the industry, particularly when it comes to energy density. Coupled with its vertically-integrated software, Tesla’s batteries can give vehicles impressive range even if they are not too large.
The Model 3, for example, can squeeze out over 320 miles of range from a 75 kWh battery, and the Model S Long Range Plus can get 390 miles from a 100 kWh pack. This matters a lot, and it shows just how far ahead the company is when it comes to its batteries and their energy density. And this, ultimately, will likely help the company secure enough battery cells to support the ramp of its upcoming EVs, including the Semi and the Cybertruck, both of which are large vehicles that would usually require a massive pack to hit their target range.
Tesla lists the Semi with a range of 300 to 500 miles. The company never announced the size of the Semi’s battery pack, but considering that the vehicle is a Class 8 truck that can accelerate from 0-60 mph in 20 seconds with a full load, speculations for the vehicle’s battery from the EV community included estimates that were as high as 1 MWh. The same concept applies to the Cybertruck. The vehicle is very heavy, and it is expected to have over 500 miles of range. To get this range, a large battery pack would usually be required.
But with Tesla’s constant innovations on its batteries, this does not necessarily have to be the case. Considering that Tesla is closing in on 400 miles per charge on a 100 kWh pack with the Model S, there is a good chance that its next vehicles like the Cybertruck and Semi will be equipped with fewer, but more energy-dense cells than initially expected. Tesla has pretty much developed the skill of drawing out as much range as possible from every cell in an EV, so it’s not too farfetched to infer that the company will be very efficient with the batteries of its upcoming vehicles.
More energy-dense batteries will be key to lowering production costs as well. Tesla may be drastically reducing its battery costs, but the packs themselves still comprise a huge portion of each of its vehicles’ prices. If Tesla can use slightly smaller packs that are still capable of providing optimum range, Tesla can make sure that its EVs like the Semi and the Cybertruck will be as competitive as possible when they enter the market.
The Tesla Semi and the Cybertruck are competing in the trucking and pickup market, two very lucrative segments in the automotive industry. Interestingly, both segments are also ripe for disruption, with most veterans such as Freightliner and the Ford F-150 sticking to tried and tested strategies to thrive today. Tesla needs a key to ensure that it can have a fighting chance when it enters the trucking and pickup segment with the Semi and Cybertruck. If challenges faced by electric car makers today are any indication, it appears that batteries and their energy density will be the difference-maker. Fortunately, these just happen to be two things that Tesla has been obsessively pursuing since the company was founded less than 17 years ago.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
