Investor's Corner
Tesla’s timeline for Gigafactory 3 in China is actually pretty conservative
Following reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has signed a preliminary agreement with Chinese authorities to build a solely-owned facility in Shanghai, questions have been raised by Wall St. skeptics and investors alike on how the California-based electric carmaker plans to fund development of its overseas factory.
Dubbed Gigafactory 3, the planned facility in China is expected to produce as many as 500,000 electric vehicles per year, doubling the production capacity of Tesla’s current facilities, and begin construction once permits and approvals are completed.
Tesla noted on Tuesday that vehicle production at Gigafactory 3 would start roughly two years after its construction begins, and ramp to a 500,000 vehicle per year production rate within 2-3 years. Such an aggressive timeline is classic Elon Musk, especially considering that components of Gigafactory 3, such as the advanced manufacturing robots and machinery that would be used to build the vehicles, would likely be coming from abroad. In a recent segment of Bloomberg Markets, Consumer Edge Research senior auto analyst James Albertine stated that the timeline of Gigafactory 3’s construction is simply “not feasible.”
While aiming to have its first electric cars roll off Gigafactory 3’s vehicle assembly lines within two years from construction is undoubtedly an ambitious goal, Tesla’s target dates are a lot more conservative than what critics would think. For one, Gigafactory 3 is being built in China, a country with a construction workforce that is optimized for quick, large-scale projects. This is something that Musk had mentioned back in February, when he noted that China’s progress in advanced infrastructure is “more than 100 times faster than the US.”
Musk’s statement on Twitter about China’s advanced infrastructure is reflected by feats of construction from the country’s workforce. Earlier this year, 1,500 workers in Eastern China set up a track replacement for a train station in just 8.5 hours. A time-lapse video of the event became viral, mainly due to the project having been conducted with near-surgical precision. Back in 2015, China also made headlines for its rapid construction after Broad Sustainable Building, a prefab construction firm in the Hunan province, managed to complete a 57-story skyscraper in just 19 days using a modular building method.
Also, if Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory is any indication, the entire facility does not need to be completed before it can start its operations. Tesla started brush clearing and grading the land for Gigafactory 1 in the summer of 2014, and as of date, the expansive battery factory is still less than 30% complete. Despite this, the facility has already stepped up to provide enough battery packs to support the ongoing ramp for the Model 3, which recently managed to exceed a rate of 5,000 vehicles per week.
Drawing parallels to the sequence of events that have taken place at Tesla’s Nevada-based Gigafactory 1 over the years, reaching completion of several key sections in the China factory would be enough for the company to begin manufacturing of its vehicles without prior to full factory buildout. Considering the speed of China’s workforce, these key sections would likely be finished earlier than Tesla’s estimated two-year timeline.

Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Secretary Li Qiang meets with Elon Musk. [Credit: Weibo]
If there is one thing that could put a damper on the rapid development of Tesla’s China factory, it would be the funding needed for the ambitious project. Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, which produces battery packs, motors, and drivetrains, is estimated to cost around $5 billion when complete. Gigafactory 3, which incorporates both battery and vehicle production, would likely be in the same ballpark, if not more expensive.
With the state of Tesla’s finances today, the company has three main options to come up with the money to build Gigafactory 3. Tesla could go back to the equity market to fund the facility’s construction, just as it has done before. The company could also raise “debt” financing, however, its credit rating may have an impact on the company’s ability to negotiate favorable terms. One likely option that would allow Tesla to quickly fund the development of its factory in China is to partner with local investment banks. One of Tesla’s largest shareholders, China-based Tencent, already owns a 5% stake in the company.
There is also a fairly good chance that Tesla would receive major subsidies and tax relief from the Chinese government. The country, after all, is aggressively pushing electric cars as a preferred mode of transportation, with the country aiming to sell 2 million electric vehicles by 2020 and attain an ICE to EV ratio of 1:1 by 2030. With these own goals in mind, it does appear that it would be in China’s best interests to ensure that Tesla manages to build Gigafactory 3 without any difficulty. After all, the faster Tesla can start building its vehicles like the Model Y crossover SUV and some of the Model 3 in China, the better it would be for the country’s electric car market.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus Gen 3 shows off a cleaner, factory-ready design in new app discovery
Renders hidden inside Tesla’s Android app show Optimus Gen 3’s design before any official reveal.
Tesla may have accidentally given a first look at its newest Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot when photos were found in the Tesla smartphone app.
Design files tucked inside a recent Android version of the Tesla app appear to show the third generation humanoid robot next to the older Gen 2.5 prototype. The assets were extracted from the app package by Tesla community member @wholemars, who posted the renders on X late Tuesday night before deleting them. The Tesla Newswire reshared the side by side comparison on Wednesday, and the images have circulated widely since.

Tesla Optimus Gen 2.5 vs Gen 3 comparison via @WholeMars on X
The files are labeled “gen3” and were built as models for Tesla app’s own interface, as validated directly by Grok to be official.
The comparison shows a robot that looks built for a factory line rather than a lab bench. Gen 2.5’s exposed mechanical linkages and gold plating on the knees and shins are gone. In their place, Gen 3 uses matte black fairings on the lower legs, paired with a more contoured champagne gold body. Flexible covers now seal the joint where the torso meets the upper thighs, keeping bearings and moving parts sealed from debris and unnecessary contact.
The body panels fit more tightly, and the hands, which Tesla has said carry 22 degrees of freedom, look far more refined than those on earlier units.
This most recent leak fills a gap Tesla has left open for most of the year. Elon Musk said on March 31 that Optimus 3 was walking around but needed “some finishing touches” before it could be shown, a delay Teslarati covered when Tesla missed its first quarter reveal target. Musk later said Tesla would hold the design back until closer to production, partly to keep competitors from copying it. No reveal date has been announced.
The app itself has been preparing for Optimus for months. In July, code in the Tesla app pointed to a dedicated robot phone key, a consent screen for collecting video and spatial data while Optimus works inside a home, and an alert system for low battery and mechanical faults. Finished 3D models of Gen 3 suggest the interface owners will eventually use is moving past placeholder code toward something Tesla intends to ship.
Manufacturing is moving in parallel. Tesla tore out the original Model S and Model X lines at Fremont this summer to make room for Optimus production, with a planned capacity of one million robots a year. At Giga Texas, the steel frame of a dedicated Optimus factory is nearing completion ahead of a targeted 2027 start, with Musk pointing to an eventual output of 10 million units annually.
Elon Musk
X changed how everyone gets paid, and this lawsuit shows why
X sued a Bitcoin account network over fake payouts as its creator pay model shifts
Elon Musk’s X has taken a Bitcoin-focused engagement ring to court, and the case doubles as a receipt for how differently the platform pays creators today. The company filed suit in the High Court of England and Wales against Vivek Kumar Sen and Zamyang Sherpa, alleging the pair ran six accounts, including @Vivek4real_, @Bitcoin_Teddy and @TrendingBitcoin, as one coordinated operation to fake the kind of engagement that used to translate directly into money.
According to the filing, first reported by Gizmodo, the accounts posted near identical “BREAKING” crypto headlines seconds apart, in one case 11 seconds, then had three more handles like, reply to and repost the material to manufacture what X called “a false appearance of genuine, human communication and interaction.” X says the scheme pulled in at least £207,384, about $278,000, and pegs its own investigation and remediation costs at another £75,000. The accounts were suspended August 18. X general counsel James Burnham announced the case on X last weekend, writing that the company “will act forcefully to protect our platform and the earnings of genuine creators.” Musk’s own reaction, posted shortly after, was three words: “Don’t mess with 𝕏.”
Don’t mess with 𝕏 https://t.co/HSmd5hL6aQ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 21, 2026
The timing lines up with a a recent update to how X pays its creators. The program these accounts allegedly gamed, Creator Revenue Sharing, launched in mid 2023 and paid out based on how much a post got engaged with. Originality was never part of the formula, which is exactly how the platform ended up flooded with recycled clips, copy pasted “BREAKING” posts and replies engineered purely to farm reactions from paying subscribers.
X tried patching the model more than once, including an April cut to aggregator payouts and a March regional weighting change that Musk personally paused hours after it was announced. X retired Creator Revenue Sharing for good on September 7 and opened its replacement, Original Content Rewards, the next day.
Today, we’re launching Original Content Rewards.
The reality is that Revenue Sharing had reached a point where its incentives were misaligned. Creators should be focused on bringing net new content to the platform instead of maximizing payouts. We could have kept adding more… pic.twitter.com/VJIxqlPrjm
— Allegra Jacchia (@allegrajacchia) August 7, 2026
The new math is stricter. Payouts now come only from qualified impressions, meaning unique Home Timeline views from Premium subscribers where at least half the post is visible, and replies no longer count toward eligibility at all. Copied posts, reuploaded media and reposts without meaningful changes are explicitly excluded. Allegra Jacchia, senior product manager for Creators at SpaceXAI, which now runs X’s product and AI work following xAI’s acquisition of the platform, put it bluntly, saying the goal is to reward creators who bring original ideas and perspective, “not those who have become best at gaming the system.”
Read that way, the lawsuit isn’t really about six crypto accounts. It’s X putting a dollar figure on what the old incentive structure cost, then suing to collect it right as the new one goes live. For live updates on how the case and the new rewards program shake out, follow @Teslarati on X.
Elon Musk
Why automakers keep turning down Elon Musk’s Tesla Full Self-Driving offer
Elon Musk confirms no automaker has ever accepted Tesla’s offer to license Full Self-Driving software.
Elon Musk gave a brief answer on X Monday that confirmed that Tesla’s standing offer to license Full Self-Driving to other automakers still has zero takers. Sawyer Merritt wrote that “Tesla has for years openly invited other automakers to license FSD. None of them have accepted,” responding to a prediction from Boom Supersonic founder Blake Scholl that Tesla would eventually open FSD the way it opened its Supercharger network to rival brands. Musk’s reply to Merritt was one word: “Exactly.”
It is not the first time Musk has made this point. He said something similar in November, when he called legacy automakers reluctance to adopt FSD “crazy,” and Tesla has floated the offer publicly since at least 2021. Scholl’s prediction touches on something real. Once NACS became the de facto charging standard, adoption from Ford, GM, Rivian and others followed within about a year. FSD licensing was supposed to work the same way once Tesla built enough of a lead that switching made sense for everyone.
Tesla has for years openly invited other automakers to license FSD. None of them have accepted. https://t.co/kgz4idpoUM
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2026
The case for licensing now is stronger than it was two years ago. Waymo and Zoox are logging hundreds of thousands of unsupervised autonomous miles, along with Tesla’s own Robotaxi fleet. Every automaker still selling driver assist systems that lag FSD has given the robotaxi conversation to Tesla, Waymo and Zoox by default. Licensing FSD would let a GM or a Ford compete on the same field without spending a decade and billions of dollars building a stack from scratch, the same argument Tesla made when it opened the Supercharger network to bring more EVs onto its chargers.
But FSD is not a connector standard. As one reply to Musk’s post pointed out, licensing FSD is not a software license the way NACS was a plug spec. It requires adopting Tesla’s eight camera layout and its onboard compute architecture, meaning a licensee’s cars would effectively become Tesla hardware wearing someone else’s badge. That is the visible obstacle. The less visible one is data. A licensed FSD stack would report back the same telemetry Tesla collects from its own fleet, giving Tesla a continuous read on how a competitor’s cars are actually driven, where they struggle, and how often drivers intervene. For an automaker trying to build its own autonomy program, or simply trying to keep its build quality and safety record private, handing Tesla that visibility could be a bigger cost than the hardware bill. It is the reason the Supercharger comparison only goes so far. Opening a charging plug cost Tesla very little. Opening FSD would cost a rival something it cannot get back.