Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 ramp shows encouraging signs with 16k new VIN registrations in 7 days
Tesla has filed more than 16,000 new Model 3 VIN registrations in the past seven days, in what is yet another encouraging sign that the company is hitting its stride with the production of the electric car. Tesla has been working on sustaining the pace it displayed during its “burst production week” in the last seven days of June, when it manufactured 5,000 Model 3 in one week. These latest VIN registrations, together with updates from Tesla’s executives during the Q2 earnings call, indicate that Tesla is doing just that.
VIN registrations monitored by Twitter group @Model3VINs indicate that Tesla has filed multiple batches equaling more than 16,000 new Model 3 from August 5 to August 12. With the addition of small batches of new VINs this Sunday, Tesla has now registered a total of 98,254 Model 3 since the vehicle’s production started. Together with this notable ramp was an increase in filings corresponding to Dual Motor vehicles, which started picking up in July. Following is a graph showing the rise in Dual Motor VIN registrations as of August 1, 2018.
The Model 3 started production in mid-2017, but its ramp has been nothing but encouraging. When Elon Musk handed over the first 30 vehicles to employees in last year’s Model 3 Handover Party, Musk stated that Tesla would likely hit a production rate equal to 5,000 cars per week by the end of December 2017. Tesla was only able to attain this target on the final week of June 2018, and only by adopting unorthodox strategies such as air-freighting robots from Europe to the United States and building an entirely new assembly line inside a sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory.
Since hitting its 5,000/week goal at the end of Q2, Tesla appears to have attained a breakthrough in the production of the Model 3. This week’s more than 16,000 new Model 3 VIN filings, for example, is roughly equal to the total VIN registrations in the first eight months of the vehicle’s production. VIN registrations over the past few months indicate that Tesla only breached the 16,000-vehicle mark near the end of March 2018.
Even Bloomberg‘s Model 3 production tracker, which has progressively increased its accuracy over the past few months (it was only 2% off Tesla’s actual numbers in Q2), now shows that the company is steadily approaching the 6,000 Model 3 per week mark. As of writing, the publication’s tracker estimates that Tesla is producing 5,824 Model 3 per week.
In Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk stated that the company was able to sustain its optimum production pace during multiple weeks in July. Musk’s statement confirmed speculations last month that Tesla did not let up its push to manufacture the Model 3 at scale since hitting its production milestone at the end of June. These speculations were fueled by initiatives such as the start of test drive programs for the Model 3, a 5-Minute Sign & Drive program, and a ramp in the hiring of employees. The company also registered more than 19,000 new Model 3 VINs in the first two weeks of July.
The news coverage surrounding Tesla over the past week has been dominated by the possibility of the company going private when the stock hits $420 per share. But behind all this is one encouraging sign — the Model 3’s production ramp, which took almost a whole year to hit 5,000/week, finally seems to be going as planned.
Tesla has only released three versions of the Model 3 — the Performance, Dual Motor AWD, and the Long Range RWD variants — but the electric sedan has already made an impact in the US auto market. In July alone, the Model 3 ranked 7th overall in GoodCarBadCar‘s list of America’s Top 20 best-selling vehicles list, which includes popular gas-powered cars like the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
