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Tesla’s next Gigafactory location unknown, but all signs point toward India
In May, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the electric automaker would likely announce its next Gigafactory location by year’s end.
While there have been rumors of deep talks in Spain, numerous meetings with French government officials, and heavy speculation regarding a relationship with Canada, Indonesia, and South Korea, it is becoming overwhelmingly clear that all signs are pointing toward India, a location where Tesla has mulled a factory for several years.
It all started back in 2015 when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Musk had their first meeting at the Fremont Factory in Northern California.
At the time, Tesla was still a young-and-scrappy car company, pushing out just thousands of units each year as it only offered the Model S and Model X at the time. Electric vehicles were still a far cry from what they are today, and while there were other options on the market, gas-powered options still dominated the overall market.
Fast-forward to 2018, when Tesla decided to open its first vehicle production factory outside of the United States in Shanghai. The Chinese EV production plant quickly became Tesla’s most effective, accumulating thousands of workers and producing a majority of the automaker’s annual volume. It went from a domestic production facility for Chinese customers to an “export hub” that would feed some of the best-selling EVs to the European market.
This all happened before Tesla would commit to building a factory near Berlin in 2019, and then another factory in Mexico in 2023.
In 2021, Tesla seemed primed to announce it would make a substantial investment in India. It had a team of executives lined up, which included David Feinstein, Tesla vet who would be named Director of Global Trade and New Markets. Vaibhav Taneja was assigned as the Chief Accounting Officer for the India plant, and Prashanth R. Menon assumed the role of Director of Tesla India.
The team was even rounded out with Manuj Khurana for Policy and Development, Nishant Nishant for Charging Infrastructure, and Chithra Thomas for Human Resources. Samir Jain was set to take over India’s Service Operations for Tesla after seven years at Porsche, where he headed Aftersales for the German automaker’s operations in India.
However, the team Tesla would put together for India would never get to work in the market, as it was set to establish the plant there.
Tesla had certain demands it needed to fulfill before committing to a Gigafactory there, and India had certain demands it needed to fulfill before giving Tesla what it wanted.
Tesla’s ‘challenges’ with India gov’t halt potential rescue of $27B manufacturing initiative
India has some of the highest import duties on vehicles in the world. The taxes would double the price of any car priced over $40,000 and 60 percent to any car under that threshold. Because of this, Tesla requested import duties be reduced to 40 percent, which would help the company determine if demand for its cars was high enough to move forward.
If Tesla is able to succeed with imported vehicles, then a factory in India is quite likely.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 23, 2021
However, Indian officials were reluctant to oblige to Tesla’s demands, arguing that “company-specific” duty rollbacks would not be possible.
The government has made its stance against company-specific incentives clear,” government officials from India said. “This also applies for one particular company requesting industrywide changes to existing policy. Over the past four years, multiple demands were made by a large US-based firm to open up the market at lower import duties as well. Now, they locally produce in India and are ramping up capacity.”
India has a $27B manufacturing initiative called “Make In India,” which encourages companies from all corners of the globe to develop, produce, and assemble products in India with sizeable investments. This initiative was first introduced in 2014 by Modi.
Because Tesla would be importing vehicles from other countries, most likely China, into India’s marketplace, government officials were unfavorable of the idea of rolling back duties. However, they were willing to do so, only if Tesla would commit to building the factory in the first place, which completely eliminated the purpose of testing demand in the first place.
Two years later, it appears Tesla and India have come to some kind of agreement. Although the terms of a partnership or investment are unknown currently, both Modi and Musk have put forth statements that seem to indicate Tesla’s next factory will be in India.
“I am confident Tesla will be in India, and we’ll do so as soon as humanly possible,” Musk said. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to announce something in the not-too-distant future.”
We don’t want to jump the gun on an announcement,” he added, “but it’s quite likely that there will be a significant investment and relationship in the future.”
#Breaking | ELON MUSK SPEAKS TO REPUBLIC
Elon Musk speaks to Republic after meeting PM Modi, announces he and Tesla are coming to India pic.twitter.com/x2CxFEDM2Z
— Republic (@republic) June 20, 2023
Modi also posted his own photo with Musk on his Twitter account, thanking the Tesla CEO for a “great meeting.”
Great meeting you today @elonmusk! We had multifaceted conversations on issues ranging from energy to spirituality. https://t.co/r0mzwNbTyN pic.twitter.com/IVwOy5SlMV
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 21, 2023
Because of the widespread speculation regarding Tesla’s next factory, we can all speculate on where it will end up. But if there is any indication of what the automaker wants and what the government wants, the long-standing attempts to get a deal done may indicate Tesla is most likely to end up in India.
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Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new rules that the Trump Administration is aiming to enforce on autonomous vehicles. On Thursday, NHTSA, under the Trump Administration’s U.S. Department of Transportation, commenced rulemaking on the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).
This effort aims to eliminate the mandate for manual brake pedals in vehicles that are designed to be driven exclusively by automated driving systems. This would impact the Tesla Cybercab, which the company has stated would operate without a steering wheel or pedals.
Tesla Cybercab launch is imminent after latest sighting at Giga Texas
The Trump Administration is looking to revise FMVSS No. 135, which requires standard braking systems on light-duty vehicles.
Currently, the regulation requires light-duty cars to use traditional manual braking systems that allow operators to slow the vehicle. With the advent of self-driving in the U.S., these regulations need updating, and these are the changes that could come to FMVSS No. 135:
- Removes requirements for hand- or foot-operated brake controls for vehicles designed never to be operated by a human. Existing rules still apply to AVs that retain manual controls.
- All subject vehicles must still meet the same stopping distance performance criteria via alternative testing procedures.
- While this update ensures AVs can physically stop when commanded, NHTSA is separately developing safety performance requirements for AVs in real-world driving scenarios.
- NHTSA will continue to use its broad defect enforcement authority to investigate unsafe ADS behavior and oversee recalls.
As autonomy becomes a greater part of passenger travel, these types of rule adjustments will be more than reasonable. It will give manufacturers the ability to self-certify their vehicles and avoid any red tape that could ultimately delay the deployment of these vehicles.
Administrators are also incredibly excited about the opportunity to play a role in the advancement of self-driving vehicles.
“We are at the cusp of the greatest technological revolution in vehicle technology since the innovation of the Model T,” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said. “If we want America to lead the way, we have to reimagine our regulatory framework. That’s why under Secretary Sean Duffy’s AV Framework, NHTSA is tearing down pointless barriers to innovative designs while strengthening the fundamental safety requirements that matter and holding AV developers accountable for safe performance.”
The Cybercab entered mass production at Gigafactory Texas in April. Tesla ultimately plans to push the vehicle into its Robotaxi fleet, potentially when frameworks like these are established.
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
One of Tesla’s biggest threats just got banned in the U.S.
