News
Tesla’s next Gigafactory location unknown, but all signs point toward India
In May, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the electric automaker would likely announce its next Gigafactory location by year’s end.
While there have been rumors of deep talks in Spain, numerous meetings with French government officials, and heavy speculation regarding a relationship with Canada, Indonesia, and South Korea, it is becoming overwhelmingly clear that all signs are pointing toward India, a location where Tesla has mulled a factory for several years.
It all started back in 2015 when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Musk had their first meeting at the Fremont Factory in Northern California.
At the time, Tesla was still a young-and-scrappy car company, pushing out just thousands of units each year as it only offered the Model S and Model X at the time. Electric vehicles were still a far cry from what they are today, and while there were other options on the market, gas-powered options still dominated the overall market.
Fast-forward to 2018, when Tesla decided to open its first vehicle production factory outside of the United States in Shanghai. The Chinese EV production plant quickly became Tesla’s most effective, accumulating thousands of workers and producing a majority of the automaker’s annual volume. It went from a domestic production facility for Chinese customers to an “export hub” that would feed some of the best-selling EVs to the European market.
This all happened before Tesla would commit to building a factory near Berlin in 2019, and then another factory in Mexico in 2023.
In 2021, Tesla seemed primed to announce it would make a substantial investment in India. It had a team of executives lined up, which included David Feinstein, Tesla vet who would be named Director of Global Trade and New Markets. Vaibhav Taneja was assigned as the Chief Accounting Officer for the India plant, and Prashanth R. Menon assumed the role of Director of Tesla India.
The team was even rounded out with Manuj Khurana for Policy and Development, Nishant Nishant for Charging Infrastructure, and Chithra Thomas for Human Resources. Samir Jain was set to take over India’s Service Operations for Tesla after seven years at Porsche, where he headed Aftersales for the German automaker’s operations in India.
However, the team Tesla would put together for India would never get to work in the market, as it was set to establish the plant there.
Tesla had certain demands it needed to fulfill before committing to a Gigafactory there, and India had certain demands it needed to fulfill before giving Tesla what it wanted.
Tesla’s ‘challenges’ with India gov’t halt potential rescue of $27B manufacturing initiative
India has some of the highest import duties on vehicles in the world. The taxes would double the price of any car priced over $40,000 and 60 percent to any car under that threshold. Because of this, Tesla requested import duties be reduced to 40 percent, which would help the company determine if demand for its cars was high enough to move forward.
If Tesla is able to succeed with imported vehicles, then a factory in India is quite likely.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 23, 2021
However, Indian officials were reluctant to oblige to Tesla’s demands, arguing that “company-specific” duty rollbacks would not be possible.
The government has made its stance against company-specific incentives clear,” government officials from India said. “This also applies for one particular company requesting industrywide changes to existing policy. Over the past four years, multiple demands were made by a large US-based firm to open up the market at lower import duties as well. Now, they locally produce in India and are ramping up capacity.”
India has a $27B manufacturing initiative called “Make In India,” which encourages companies from all corners of the globe to develop, produce, and assemble products in India with sizeable investments. This initiative was first introduced in 2014 by Modi.
Because Tesla would be importing vehicles from other countries, most likely China, into India’s marketplace, government officials were unfavorable of the idea of rolling back duties. However, they were willing to do so, only if Tesla would commit to building the factory in the first place, which completely eliminated the purpose of testing demand in the first place.
Two years later, it appears Tesla and India have come to some kind of agreement. Although the terms of a partnership or investment are unknown currently, both Modi and Musk have put forth statements that seem to indicate Tesla’s next factory will be in India.
“I am confident Tesla will be in India, and we’ll do so as soon as humanly possible,” Musk said. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to announce something in the not-too-distant future.”
We don’t want to jump the gun on an announcement,” he added, “but it’s quite likely that there will be a significant investment and relationship in the future.”
#Breaking | ELON MUSK SPEAKS TO REPUBLIC
Elon Musk speaks to Republic after meeting PM Modi, announces he and Tesla are coming to India pic.twitter.com/x2CxFEDM2Z
— Republic (@republic) June 20, 2023
Modi also posted his own photo with Musk on his Twitter account, thanking the Tesla CEO for a “great meeting.”
Great meeting you today @elonmusk! We had multifaceted conversations on issues ranging from energy to spirituality. https://t.co/r0mzwNbTyN pic.twitter.com/IVwOy5SlMV
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 21, 2023
Because of the widespread speculation regarding Tesla’s next factory, we can all speculate on where it will end up. But if there is any indication of what the automaker wants and what the government wants, the long-standing attempts to get a deal done may indicate Tesla is most likely to end up in India.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025.
The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
Cybertruck’s IIHS rating
As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.
The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.
Safest and most autonomous pickup
The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.
Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales.
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
