RBC Capital raised Tesla’s price target by $1 from $297 to $298 and maintained its Outperform rating, reported The Street.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan included Tesla’s Megapack business in his price point estimate. RBC Capital sees potential in Tesla’s Megapack business, including $117 billion in extra value for the energy storage systems in the company’s valuation.
Tesla Megapacks represent 11% of Tesla’s overall price point from RBC Capital, assuming it stays at a flat market share of 15% despite having a 30% cost advantage versus its peers. The investment bank also predicts 25% EBITDA margins despite decreasing battery costs.
“Given conservatism embedded in our base case, we believe the [Megapack] business is probably worth between $100 to $200 billion.”
The investment bank’s upside scenario for Tesla’s Megapack business is a 20% market share and 30% EBITDA margins with a $212 billion valuation.
RBC Capital has a conservative outlook for Tesla’s car business. It lowered Tesla’s Autonomy valuation due to reduced licensing penetration expectations.
By 2035, the investment bank forecasts that Tesla will sell ~2.5 million vehicles per year in North America, ~800,000 in Western Europe, and ~1.7 million in China. It predicts that the Model 3 and Model Y will account for ~2.3 million units sold yearly, while the upcoming Model 2 will account for ~3 million per year at maturity.
“Given our expectation that management’s goal is to increase volumes in order to sell autonomy, we have gross margins falling from 18% in 2023 to 11% by 2035
“This conservatively assumes Model 2 at breakeven despite management expecting the car to cost $20K to make and be priced at $25K (ex-$7,500 to the consumer for the IRA credit). We value Cars at $78B using a 2.5x mass market OEM multiple (up from 2.0x) on 2024E EBITDA. Lowering Licensing but Autonomy [is] still key. OEMs have been pulling back on organic investments, and ordinarily, this should be viewed constructively for FSD licensing,” noted the investment bank.
Elon Musk discussed the state of Full Self-Driving licenses during the TSLA Q4 and Full Year 2023 earnings call.
“I really think lots of car companies should be asking for FSD licenses. And we’ve has some tentative conversations, but I think they don’t believe it’s real quite yet,” said Musk.
Meanwhile, Ford CEO Jim Farley advises people to stop looking at FSD and Tesla when it comes to the future of the automotive industry.
If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_01001101.
Elon Musk
Tesla bull sees odds rising of Tesla merger after Musk confirms SpaceX-xAI deal
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote on Tuesday that there is a growing chance Tesla could be merged in some form with SpaceX and xAI over the next 12 to 18 months.
A prominent Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull has stated that the odds are rising that Tesla could eventually merge with SpaceX and xAI, following Elon Musk’s confirmation that the private space company has combined with his artificial intelligence startup.
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote on Tuesday that there is a growing chance Tesla could be merged in some form with SpaceX and xAI over the next 12 to 18 months.
“In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces,” Ives wrote in a post on X.
Ives’ comments followed confirmation from Elon Musk late Monday that SpaceX has merged with xAI. Musk stated that the merger creates a vertically integrated platform that combines AI, rockets, satellite internet, communications, and real-time data.
In a post on SpaceX’s official website, Elon Musk added that the combined company is aimed at enabling space-based AI compute, stating that within two to three years, space could become the lowest-cost environment for generating AI processing power. The transaction reportedly values the combined SpaceX-xAI entity at roughly $1.25 trillion.
Tesla, for its part, has already increased its exposure to xAI, announcing a $2 billion investment in the startup last week in its Q4 and FY 2025 update letter.
While merger speculation has intensified, notable complications could emerge if SpaceX/xAI does merge with Tesla, as noted in a report from Investors Business Daily.
SpaceX holds major U.S. government contracts, including with the Department of Defense and NASA, and xAI’s Grok is being used by the U.S. Department of War. Tesla, for its part, maintains extensive operations in China through Gigafactory Shanghai and its Megapack facility.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk and xAI donate generators to TN amid historic power outages
The donation comes as thousands of households have gone days without electricity amid freezing temperatures.
Elon Musk has donated hundreds of generators to Tennessee residents still without power following a historic winter storm, as per an update from Governor Bill Lee.
The donation comes as thousands of households have gone days without electricity amid freezing temperatures.
Musk donates generators
As noted in a report from WSMV4, the historic storm that hit Tennessee resulted in hundreds of thousands of residents experiencing a power outage at the end of January. Thousands are still living without power or heat in freezing temperatures for up to nine days.
As per TN Gov. Bill Lee in a post on X, Elon Musk and xAI have donated hundreds of generators to assist residents in affected areas. “Tennesseans without power need immediate help. I’m deeply grateful to @elonmusk & @xAI for going above & beyond to support Tennesseans by donating hundreds of generators to fill the gap, & I value their continued partnership to solve problems & support communities across our state,” he wrote in his post.
Tennessee officials have stated that recovery efforts remain ongoing as crews work to restore power and address damage caused by the winter storm. The generators are expected to provide temporary relief for residents facing power outages during freezing conditions.
Tesla Powerwalls may follow
Musk publicly responded to the governor’s post while hinting that additional help may be on the way. This time, the additional support would be coming from Musk’s electric vehicle company, Tesla.
“You’re most welcome. We’re working on providing Tesla Powerwalls too,” Musk wrote in his response to the official.
Even before Elon Musk’s comment, Tesla had already extended help to affected customers in Mississippi and Tennessee. In a post on X, the official Tesla Charging account noted that all Superchargers in the two states are online, and free Supercharging has been enabled to help those in areas that are affected by persistent power outages.
These include Grenada, Tupelo, Corinth, Southhaven, and Horn Lake in Mississippi and several Supercharging sites in Memphis, Tennessee.
News
Tesla-inspired door handles prohibited under China’s new safety standard
The rule effectively ends a design trend pioneered by Tesla and widely adopted across China’s electric vehicle market.
China will ban hidden door handles on electric vehicles starting 2027 under a new national safety standard, forcing automakers to equip their cars with mechanical exterior and interior handles.
The rule effectively ends a design trend pioneered by Tesla and widely adopted across China’s electric vehicle market.
China bans hidden door handles
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) noted that the new mandatory national auto safety standard on EV door handles will take effect on January 1, 2027. For models that have already received approval and are scheduled for launch, automakers will be allowed to complete required design changes by January 2029.
Under the new rules, exterior door handles must remain operable even in scenarios involving irreversible restraint system failures or thermal runaway incidents in the battery pack. Doors must also be capable of opening even if the vehicle loses electrical power. Interior doors must include at least one independent mechanical release handle per door as well.
Safety concerns drive rollback
Hidden and electrically actuated door handles have become mainstream in recent years as EV makers pursued cleaner styling and improved aerodynamics. Tesla pioneered the hidden handle design, and it was adopted by most Chinese EV manufacturers in either fully hidden or semi-hidden forms, as noted in a CNEV Post report. Today, about 60% of top-selling EVs in China use the design.
Chinese regulators have stated that the designs pose safety risks, particularly in crashes or power failures where doors may not open from the inside or outside. Authorities cited multiple fatal incidents in which occupants or rescuers were unable to open vehicle doors after collisions.
One high-profile case occurred last October, when a Xiaomi SU7, a vehicle designed to be a competitor to the Tesla Model 3, caught fire following a crash in Chengdu in southwest China. The driver died after bystanders were unable to open the doors. The incident sparked intense scrutiny over the SU7’s Tesla-inspired door handles.