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Tesla receives a $1 PT increase from RBC Capital: Report

Credit: Tesla North America | X

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RBC Capital raised Tesla’s price target by $1 from $297 to $298 and maintained its Outperform rating, reported The Street.

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan included Tesla’s Megapack business in his price point estimate. RBC Capital sees potential in Tesla’s Megapack business, including $117 billion in extra value for the energy storage systems in the company’s valuation. 

Tesla Megapacks represent 11% of Tesla’s overall price point from RBC Capital, assuming it stays at a flat market share of 15% despite having a 30% cost advantage versus its peers. The investment bank also predicts 25% EBITDA margins despite decreasing battery costs. 

“Given conservatism embedded in our base case, we believe the [Megapack] business is probably worth between $100 to $200 billion.”

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The investment bank’s upside scenario for Tesla’s Megapack business is a 20% market share and 30% EBITDA margins with a $212 billion valuation. 

RBC Capital has a conservative outlook for Tesla’s car business. It lowered Tesla’s Autonomy valuation due to reduced licensing penetration expectations. 

By 2035, the investment bank forecasts that Tesla will sell ~2.5 million vehicles per year in North America, ~800,000 in Western Europe, and ~1.7 million in China. It predicts that the Model 3 and Model Y will account for ~2.3 million units sold yearly, while the upcoming Model 2 will account for ~3 million per year at maturity. 

“Given our expectation that management’s goal is to increase volumes in order to sell autonomy, we have gross margins falling from 18% in 2023 to 11% by 2035

“This conservatively assumes Model 2 at breakeven despite management expecting the car to cost $20K to make and be priced at $25K (ex-$7,500 to the consumer for the IRA credit). We value Cars at $78B using a 2.5x mass market OEM multiple (up from 2.0x) on 2024E EBITDA. Lowering Licensing but Autonomy [is] still key. OEMs have been pulling back on organic investments, and ordinarily, this should be viewed constructively for FSD licensing,” noted the investment bank.  

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Elon Musk discussed the state of Full Self-Driving licenses during the TSLA Q4 and Full Year 2023 earnings call. 

“I really think lots of car companies should be asking for FSD licenses. And we’ve has some tentative conversations, but I think they don’t believe it’s real quite yet,” said Musk. 

Meanwhile, Ford CEO Jim Farley advises people to stop looking at FSD and Tesla when it comes to the future of the automotive industry. 

If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk announces disappointing Tesla Optimus update

In a post on X on March 31, Musk stated that Optimus 3 is mobile but requires some finishing touches before it is ready to be shown to the world. This update comes on the final day of the first quarter, a period when Tesla had previously signaled expectations for a Gen 3 reveal.

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Credit: Tesla China

Elon Musk announced a disappointing update to the unveiling of Tesla Optimus and its third-generation iteration, missing a timeline it aimed to hit in the first quarter of the year.

Musk has confirmed that the highly anticipated Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot is already walking around and operational, yet the public unveiling will face a short delay as the company applies final refinements.

In a post on X on March 31, Musk stated that Optimus 3 is mobile but requires some finishing touches before it is ready to be shown to the world. This update comes on the final day of the first quarter, a period when Tesla had previously signaled expectations for a Gen 3 reveal.

The announcement follows reports of Optimus Gen 3 appearing at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles, where it was observed serving and moving about until sunset. Images and videos shared by observers captured the robot in action, highlighting its progress in real-world mobility.

Tesla had aimed to showcase the production intent version of Optimus Gen 3 during the first quarter of 2026, positioning it as a major step toward factory deployment and eventual commercial availability. Musk has described the robot as featuring advanced capabilities, including highly dexterous hands with significant degrees of freedom, powered by Tesla’s AI systems for complex tasks.

This minor postponement aligns with Tesla’s iterative approach to development. Earlier statements from Musk indicated that Gen 3 would represent the most advanced humanoid robot yet, designed primarily for internal factory use before scaling to external customers.

Elon Musk’s $10 Trillion robot: Inside Tesla’s push to mass produce Optimus

Production timelines point toward low-volume output starting in the summer of 2026, with volume ramp-up targeted for 2027. The delay underscores the company’s commitment to quality over speed, ensuring the robot meets rigorous standards for safety and performance in practical environments.

Optimus represents a cornerstone of Tesla’s long-term vision beyond electric vehicles. Musk has repeatedly emphasized that successful humanoid robotics could transform industries by addressing labor shortages and enabling new forms of productivity.

Competitors in the space continue to advance their own platforms, yet Tesla’s vertical integration, from custom actuators to end-to-end AI training, positions Optimus as a potential leader. Community reactions on social media range from excitement over visible progress to impatience with shifting timelines, a familiar pattern in Tesla’s innovation journey.

Investors and enthusiasts view Optimus as critical to Tesla’s valuation, potentially surpassing its automotive business in scale. With the robot already demonstrating walking and basic interactions, the finishing touches likely involve software polishing, hardware fine-tuning, and reliability enhancements.

Musk’s update suggests the reveal could arrive in the coming weeks or months, maintaining momentum toward broader deployment.

As Tesla pushes the boundaries of physical artificial intelligence, this latest development keeps Optimus in the spotlight. The company continues to prioritize rapid iteration while delivering on its promises to shareholders and customers. The robotics revolution at Tesla appears closer than ever, promising profound impacts on manufacturing, services, and daily life in the years ahead.

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Elon Musk

Countdown: America is going back to the Moon and SpaceX holds the key to what comes after

NASA’s Artemis II launches Wednesday, sending humans near the Moon for the first time since 1972.

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For the first time since Apollo 17 touched down on the lunar surface in December 1972, the United States is sending humans back toward the Moon. NASA’s Artemis II mission is set to launch as early as this week from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying four astronauts on a 10-day journey around the Moon and back to Earth. It will not land anyone on the surface this time, but it is the first crewed flight in over half a century to travel beyond low Earth orbit, and it sets the stage for Elon Musk’s SpaceX missions to follow.

The mission uses NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and the Orion spacecraft, which will fly around the Moon before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean around April 10. For context, an uncrewed Artemis I flew the same path in 2022, proving the hardware worked. Artemis II now tests it with people aboard.

According to NASA’s official countdown blog, launch preparations are on track with an 80 percent chance of favorable weather. “Hey, let’s go to the moon!” Commander Wiseman told reporters upon arriving at Kennedy Space Center.

Source: NASA

Beyond Artemis II lies the lander question, and that is where SpaceX enters directly. In 2021, NASA awarded SpaceX a $2.89 billion contract to develop the Starship Human Landing System, a modified version of Starship designed to ferry astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface. The original plan called for SpaceX to deliver that lander for Artemis III, which was to be the first crewed lunar landing. Timing for Starship development, however, caused NASA to restructure the mission sequence entirely.

Before SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System (HLS) can put anyone on the Moon, it has to solve a problem no rocket has demonstrated at scale, which is refueling in orbit. Because the Starship HLS requires approximately ten tanker launches worth of propellant loaded into a depot in low Earth orbit before it has enough fuel to reach the lunar surface, SpaceX plans to conduct this refueling process using its upgraded V3 Starship. And until that demonstration flies and succeeds, the Starship moon lander remains a question mark.

SpaceX’s Starship V3 is almost ready and it will change space travel forever

In February 2026, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman confirmed that Artemis III, now planned for mid-2027, and will instead test lunar landers in low Earth orbit, with the actual landing pushed to Artemis IV that’s targeted for 2028.

Musk responded to earlier criticism of SpaceX’s schedule by posting on X that his company is “moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry,” and added that “Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission.” The contract competition was also reopened in October 2025 by then NASA chief Sean Duffy, who cited Starship’s delays and said the agency needed speed given China’s own stated goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030.


Artemis came from the first Trump administration’s 2017 Space Policy Directive 1, which directed NASA to return humans to the Moon. The program picked up pace through the 2020s, with the Orion spacecraft and SLS taking years to develop at enormous costs. SpaceX entered the picture in 2021 as the chosen lander contractor, tying the commercial space sector into what had historically been an all government undertaking.

Whether SpaceX’s Starship ultimately carries astronauts to the lunar surface or shares that role with Blue Origin’s competing lander, this week’s Artemis II launch is the necessary first step. Getting four humans to the Moon’s vicinity and back safely is the proof of concept everything else depends on.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk debunks latest rumors about SpaceX IPO

Musk has swiftly put to rest circulating reports suggesting that SpaceX would exclude popular retail brokerages Robinhood and SoFi from its highly anticipated initial public offering. In a direct response posted on X on March 31, Musk stated simply, “These reports are false,” addressing widespread speculation fueled by a Reuters article.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk debunked the latest rumors about the space exploration company’s initial public offering (IPO), which has been the subject of a wide array of speculation over the last few weeks.

With SpaceX likely heading to Wall Street to become a publicly-traded stock in the coming months, there is a lot of speculation surrounding how it will happen, whether the company will potentially combine with Tesla, and more.

Tesla and SpaceX to merge in 2027, Wall Street analyst predicts

But the latest rumors have to do with where SpaceX will list the stock.

Musk has swiftly put to rest circulating reports suggesting that SpaceX would exclude popular retail brokerages Robinhood and SoFi from its highly anticipated initial public offering.

In a direct response posted on X on March 31, Musk stated simply, “These reports are false,” addressing widespread speculation fueled by a Reuters article.

The Reuters report, published March 30, claimed that Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade was in talks to lead the sale of SpaceX shares to small U.S. investors.

Sources indicated that Robinhood and SoFi, despite pitching for roles, faced potential exclusion from the retail allocation, with Fidelity also competing for a piece of the action. The story quickly spread across financial media, raising concerns among retail investors eager to participate in what could be one of the largest IPOs in history.

SpaceX has a reported valuation nearing $1.75 trillion, and Musk’s plan to allocate up to 30 percent of shares to individual investors — far above the typical 5-10% — had generated massive excitement.

Musk’s concise denial immediately calmed the narrative. The original X post quoting the rumor garnered significant engagement, with users expressing relief that everyday investors would not be sidelined.

This episode reflects Musk’s hands-on approach to SpaceX’s public debut.

Earlier reporting revealed plans for an unusually large retail slice to leverage Musk’s dedicated fan base and stabilize post-IPO trading. SpaceX aims to file potentially as early as this period, building on momentum from its Starship program and Starlink growth.

The IPO could mark a transformative moment, potentially elevating Musk’s status further while democratizing access to a company long reserved for accredited investors and institutions.

The rumor’s quick debunking also revives debates about retail access in high-profile listings. Robinhood gained popularity during the 2021 meme-stock surge but faced criticism for past trading restrictions.

SoFi has positioned itself as a modern financial platform for younger investors. Excluding them could have limited participation from tech-savvy retail traders who form a core part of Musk’s supporter base across Tesla and SpaceX.

While details remain fluid, Musk’s intervention reinforces commitment to broad accessibility. As preparations advance, investors await official filings. For now, the message is clear: rumors of restricted retail access were overstated, keeping the door open for widespread participation in SpaceX’s public chapter.

This development comes amid broader market enthusiasm for space and technology stocks. Musk’s transparency through X continues to shape public perception, distinguishing SpaceX’s path from traditional Wall Street norms. With retail allocation potentially reaching 30 percent, the IPO promises to be both commercially massive and culturally significant.

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