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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

Published

4 weeks ago

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

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The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla confirms rollout of critical feature, but Cybertruck misses out

Tesla’s S3XY lineup will get the Adaptive Headlights, but Cybertruck will not.

Published

11 hours ago

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April 17, 2025

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Credit: @jojje167 on X

Tesla has confirmed the rollout of a new, critical feature that is coming to the United States for the first time.

However, the Cybertruck will unfortunately miss out on it.

Tesla has a distinct advantage among many automakers as their Over-the-Air updates make their vehicles better over time. While many automakers have the ability to roll out new features through these updates, Tesla has been shown to be one of the companies that can truly make things significantly better with their cars.

A new feature coming to the United States and now rolling out is Adaptive Headlights. This feature will be applied to Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y vehicles with the proper hardware.

Adaptive Headlights are different than your typical auto highbeams in the way that they can dim certain pixels of the bulb to keep visibility for the Tesla driver high, while eliminating glare for those who are in oncoming cars:

For the first time, Tesla is rolling out the feature to these vehicles in the United States. European Tesla owners were able to use the function several months back, but it was pending approval in the U.S.

At first, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, said that the Cybertruck would have this feature. However, in late February, he confirmed that he was incorrect and the all-electric pickup will not have the ability to get Adaptive Headlights, as the company could not fit the correct hardware in the Cybertruck’s module:

The feature certainly makes visibility better for everyone on the road and will improve overall safety while eliminating the pesky and annoying feeling of being blinded by high beams.

The Adaptive Headlight feature for Tesla is part of the company’s Spring Update for 2025.

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Tesla Model 3 wins ‘most economical EV to own’ title in new study

The Tesla Model 3 has captured another crown in a recent study showing the most cost-effective EVs

Published

15 hours ago

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April 17, 2025

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tesla model 3 driving on a wet road
(Credit: Tesla)

The Tesla Model 3 recently captured the title of “most economical electric vehicle to own” in a new study performed by research firm Zutobi.

Perhaps one of the biggest and most popular reasons people are switching to EVs is the cost savings. Combining home charging, lower maintenance costs, and tax credits has all enabled consumers to consider EVs as a way to save money on their daily drivers. However, there are some EVs that are more efficient and cost-effective than others.

Tesla police fleet saves nearly half a million in upkeep and repair costs

Zutobi‘s new study shows that EV cost-effectiveness comes at different levels. For example, some cars are simply better than others on a cost-per-mile basis. The study used a simple process to determine which EVs are more cost-effective than others by showing how much it would cost to drive 100 miles.

National averages for energy rates have been used to calculate the cost as they widely vary from state to state.

The Rear-Wheel Drive Tesla Model 3 was listed as the most economical vehicle in the study:

“The standard Tesla Model 3 is the most economical electric vehicle to drive in 2025. With a usable battery capacity of 57.5 kWh and a real-world range of 260 miles, it costs just $3.60 to drive 100 miles. That translates to an impressive 2,781 miles per $100 of electricity—making it the most efficient choice for EV owners nationwide.”

It had an estimated cost of just $3.60 to drive 100 miles.

The Tesla Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel Drive was second, the study showed:

“Next is the Long Range version of the Model 3, which offers extended range and dual-motor all-wheel drive. With a larger 75 kWh battery and 325 miles of range, the cost to drive 100 miles is slightly higher at $3.75, still equating to a strong 2,665 miles per $100.”

This version of the Model 3 had a price of just $3.75 to drive 100 miles.

In third, the BMW i4 eDrive35 surprised us with a cost of just $4.12 to drive 100 miles:

“Rounding out the top three is the BMW i4 eDrive35, with a 67.1 kWh battery and a real-world range of 265 miles. Drivers can expect to pay $4.12 per 100 miles, which still allows for 2,429 miles per $100—a solid choice for those seeking luxury and efficiency.”

Several other Teslas made the list as well. The Model 3 Performance ($4.34 per 100 miles) was sixth and tied with the Volkswagen ID.3 Pure, the Tesla Model S Long Range ($4.35 per 100 miles) was 8th, and the Tesla Model Y Long Range was ninth ($4.36 per 100 miles).

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Tesla offers new discounts on Cybertruck inventory

Tesla is knocking up to $10,550 off of Cybertruck units in inventory

Published

16 hours ago

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April 17, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is offering new discounts on Cybertruck units in inventory, giving customers a chance to snag a unit of the all-electric pickup for a slight reduction in price. Some are even coming with additional perks to make the offer even sweeter.

Tesla is now offering up to $10,550 off of Cybertruck inventory units across the United States. This is up from previous discounts of $6,000 on inventory Cybertrucks, and it will apply to 2024 model year vehicles.

Non-Foundation Series Cybertrucks are getting up to $10,550 off of their original prices, while Foundation Series pickups are getting up to $10,000 off. These are great deals and should help clear out some inventory from last year’s models.

Additionally, Foundation Series Cybertrucks purchased will receive free lifetime Supercharging, another great addition to make the deal even better than the $10,000 off.

The move comes as Tesla is still ramping Cybertruck production and is hoping to stimulate some additional demand for the vehicle, as it is holding on to these units. These are not Demo Drive units that have been driven by any number of people who were looking for a quick test drive.

Tesla launched a new configuration of the Cybertruck just last week with the Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive, which undercuts the All-Wheel-Drive option by roughly $10,000.

Tesla released the Cybertruck RWD to make the AWD look like a deal

However, Tesla stripped the vehicle of several features, including Air Suspension, a tonneau cover, and interior features. For example, the Rear-Wheel-Drive trim of the Cybertruck has textile seats and no rear touchscreen, two things that come standard in the other trim levels.

The Cybertruck is the best-selling electric pickup in the United States, outperforming formidable competitors like the Ford F-150 Lightning and Chevrolet Silverado EV. However, Tesla is still working to get the vehicle to a lower price point that makes it more accessible to consumers, as its current pricing is a far cry from what was intended.

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