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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

Published

4 months ago

March 20, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

News

Tesla debuts hands-free Grok AI with update 2025.26: What you need to know

All new Tesla vehicles delivered on or after July 12, 2025, will include Grok AI out of the box

Published

1 hour ago

July 12, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla has begun rolling out Grok, an in-car conversational AI assistant developed by xAI, to eligible vehicles starting July 12. The feature marks the most direct integration yet between Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup and Tesla’s consumer product lineup, offering drivers hands-free access to a chat-style companion while on the road.

Grok comes pre-installed on new vehicles

According to Tesla’s FAQ page for the feature, all new vehicles delivered on or after July 12, 2025, will include Grok AI out of the box. Owners of older vehicles may gain access through an over-the-air update, provided their vehicle meets a few hardware and software requirements.

Specifically, Grok is currently only supported on Tesla models equipped with an AMD infotainment processor and running vehicle software version 2025.26 and higher. Compatible models include the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Cybertruck. A Premium Connectivity subscription or active Wi-Fi connection is also required.

To enable & use Grok, tap App Launcher > Grok

Or press & hold voice button on your steering wheel— Tesla (@Tesla) July 12, 2025

Tesla notes that additional vehicle compatibility may arrive in future software updates.

Grok’s features and limitations for now

Drivers can engage with Grok using the App Launcher or by pressing and holding the voice command button on the steering wheel. Grok is designed to answer questions and hold conversations using natural language, offering responses tailored to its chosen personality—ranging from “Storyteller” to the more eccentric “Unhinged.”

For fun, Tesla posted a demonstration of Grok likely running on “Unhinged” talking about what it would do to Optimus when they are on a date, much to the shock of the humanoid robot’s official social media account.

1) What— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) July 12, 2025

It should be noted, however, that Grok cannot currently issue commands to the vehicle itself, at least for now. Traditional voice commands for tasks like climate control, navigation, or media remain separate from Grok as of writing.

The feature is being released in Beta and does not require a Grok account or xAI subscription to activate, although that policy may change over time.

Grok privacy and in-car experience

Tesla emphasizes that interactions with Grok are securely processed by xAI and not linked to a user’s Tesla account or vehicle. Conversations remain anonymous unless a user signs into Grok separately to sync their history across devices.

Tesla has also begun promoting Grok directly on its official vehicle webpages, showcasing the feature as part of its in-car experience, further highlighting the company’s increasing focus on AI and infotainment features on its all-electric vehicles.

News

Tesla cleared in Canada EV rebate investigation

Tesla has been cleared in an investigation into the company’s staggering number of EV rebate claims in Canada in January.

Published

22 hours ago

July 11, 2025

Zachary Visconti

Credit: Tesla

Canadian officials have cleared Tesla following an investigation into a large number of claims submitted to the country’s electric vehicle (EV) rebates earlier this year.

Transport Canada has ruled that there was no evidence of fraud after Tesla submitted 8,653 EV rebate claims for the country’s Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) program, as detailed in a report on Friday from The Globe and Mail. Despite the huge number of claims, Canadian authorities have found that the figure represented vehicles that had been delivered prior to the submission deadline for the program.

According to Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland, the claims “were determined to legitimately represent cars sold before January 12,” which was the final day for OEMs to submit these claims before the government suspended the program.

Upon initial reporting of the Tesla claims submitted in January, it was estimated that they were valued at around $43 million. In March, Freeland and Transport Canada opened the investigation into Tesla, noting that they would be freezing the rebate payments until the claims were found to be valid.

READ MORE ON ELECTRIC VEHICLES: EVs getting cleaner more quickly than expected in Europe: study

Huw Williams, Canadian Automobile Dealers Association Public Affairs Director, accepted the results of the investigation, while also questioning how Tesla knew to submit the claims that weekend, just before the program ran out.

“I think there’s a larger question as to how Tesla knew to run those through on that weekend,” Williams said. “It doesn’t appear to me that we have an investigation into any communication between Transport Canada and Tesla, between officials who may have shared information inappropriately.”

Tesla sales have been down in Canada for the first half of this year, amidst turmoil between the country and the Trump administration’s tariffs. Although Elon Musk has since stepped back from his role with the administration, a number of companies and officials in Canada were calling for a boycott of Tesla’s vehicles earlier this year, due in part to his association with Trump.

Tesla excluded from incentives in Canada over Trump tariffs

News

Tesla Semis to get 18 new Megachargers at this PepsiCo plant

PepsiCo is set to add more Tesla Semi Megachargers, this time at a facility in North Carolina.

Published

22 hours ago

July 11, 2025

Zachary Visconti

Credit: Tesla

Tesla partner PepsiCo is set to build new Semi charging stations at one of its manufacturing sites, as revealed in new permitting plans shared this week.

On Friday, Tesla charging station scout MarcoRP shared plans on X for 18 Semi Megacharging stalls at PepsiCo’s facility in Charlotte, North Carolina, coming as the latest update plans for the company’s increasingly electrified fleet. The stalls are set to be built side by side, along with three Tesla Megapack grid-scale battery systems.

The plans also note the faster charging speeds for the chargers, which can charge the Class 8 Semi at speeds of up to 1MW. Tesla says that the speed can charge the Semi back to roughly 70 percent in around 30 minutes.

You can see the site plans for the PepsiCo North Carolina Megacharger below.

Credit: PepsiCo (via MarcoRPi1 on X)

Credit: PepsiCo (via MarcoRPi1 on X)

READ MORE ON THE TESLA SEMI: Tesla to build Semi Megacharger station in Southern California

PepsiCo’s Tesla Semi fleet, other Megachargers, and initial tests and deliveries

PepsiCo was the first external customer to take delivery of Tesla’s Semis back in 2023, starting with just an initial order of 15. Since then, the company has continued to expand the fleet, recently taking delivery of an additional 50 units in California. The PepsiCo fleet was up to around 86 units as of last year, according to statements from Semi Senior Manager Dan Priestley.

Additionally, the company has similar Megachargers at its facilities in Modesto, Sacramento, and Fresno, California, and Tesla also submitted plans for approval to build 12 new Megacharging stalls in Los Angeles County.

Over the past couple of years, Tesla has also been delivering the electric Class 8 units to a number of other companies for pilot programs, and Priestley shared some results from PepsiCo’s initial Semi tests last year. Notably, the executive spoke with a handful of PepsiCo workers who said they really liked the Semi and wouldn’t plan on going back to diesel trucks.

The company is also nearing completion of a higher-volume Semi plant at its Gigafactory in Nevada, which is expected to eventually have an annual production capacity of 50,000 Semi units.