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Apple’s electric car launch could be postponed to ‘2028 or later,’ estimates analyst

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In a recent research note, reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote that the tech giant could postpone the launch of its electric car to 2028 or later. Kuo has been dubbed the “most accurate Apple analyst in the world,” and may have more insight into the Apple Car project.

As per MacRumors, Kuo from TF Securities noted that it is far too early to be excited about the Apple Car. He estimated that the Apple’s electric vehicle could launch by 2025 to 2027 at the earliest, only if everything goes well. Otherwise, a launch of 2028 or later may be more feasible.

“We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that the current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear, and if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple’s high-quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car’s launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later,” Kuo wrote.

He observed that Apple has competitive advantages, but has had difficulty launching successful new businesses before. Kuo cited examples of Apple products that have failed to become massive successes so far, such as the HomePod and HomePod mini. He also explained that the company has a lot of catching up to do when it comes to autonomous driving data.

“The market has high expectations for Apple Car. Still, we remind investors that although Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new business. For example, Apple failed to enter the smart speaker market. The demand for HomePod and HomePod mini were lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models had been temporarily suspended. The competition in the EV/self-driving car market is fiercer than that for smart speakers, so we think it’s perilous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed,” he wrote.

If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the key success factor is big data/AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about Apple Car is that when Apple Car is launched, the current self-driving car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and be conducive to deep learning/AI. How does Apple, a latecomer, overcome this lagging gap?”

The Apple analyst believes the market is “overly bullish” about the Apple Car’s schedule and advised investors to avoid buying stocks related to the company’s electric passenger car project. Kuo is regarded as a reliable Apple analyst due to his close ties with the tech giant’s supply chain. So far, he has accurately predicted the 11-inch MacBook Air, the iPhone 6S’ 3D Touch feature, the iPhone X’s size, display, and glass back, and the variants of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro lineup, among others.

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Apple’s electric car launch could be postponed to ‘2028 or later,’ estimates analyst
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