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Tesla bull ARK Invest estimates robotaxi fleet launch dates

(Credit: Tesla)

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TSLA bull ARK Invest shared predictions for the potential launch date for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. 

The global asset manager used its updated Monte Carlo model to provide a range of potential launch dates for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. ARK Invest believes in the best-case scenario, Tesla’s robotaxi fleet will launch by Q4 2023. The worst-case scenario is that the Tesla robotaxi fleet will be launched in 2030. The long-time TSLA bull predicted that the first year of Tesla’s robotaxi commercialization would also likely happen in late 2024, depending on certain variables. 

To sum everything up, ARK Invest predicts the earliest the Tesla robotaxi fleet could launch is later this year. If the EV automaker doesn’t launch its robotaxi fleet this year, the next most likely launch date is late 2024. In the unlikely event that Murphy’s law hits and everything that can go wrong does go wrong, the Tesla robotaxi fleet could launch in 2030. 

ARK Invest strongly believes that Tesla’s robotaxi business has far more potential than its automotive sales business. 

“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 67% of expected enterprise value and 64% of expected EBITDA in 2027,” noted ARK in its recently published report. “Across our simulation set, electric vehicles account for 47% of revenues in 2027, at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue. The chart below breaks down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and value by business line.”

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk holds a similar view. During the last earnings call, Musk emphasized the critical role autonomy will play in Tesla’s profits. 

“We’ve taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles, over time, will be able to generate significant profit through autonomy,” Musk said.

“So we do believe we’re like laying the groundwork here, and then it’s better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin and, subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy. This is an extremely important point.”

Despite his past predictions, Musk is optimistic that Tesla will reach full autonomy this year. The EV automaker’s recent actions hint that it is closer to autonomy than ever before, considering increased talk about Tesla’s next-generation vehicles. Tesla has teased a robotaxi car over the years, but 2023 seems different. The company has shown a clear path toward a ride-hailing car in Master Plan Part 3 and the announcement of Gigafactory Mexico. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Cybertruck

Tesla reveals its Cybertruck light bar installation fix

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u/Kruzat, see page for license, via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla has revealed its Cybertruck light bar installation fix after a recall exposed a serious issue with the accessory.

Tesla and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated a recall of 6,197 Cybertrucks back in October to resolve an issue with the Cybertruck light bar accessory. It was an issue with the adhesive that was provided by a Romanian company called Hella Romania S.R.L.

Tesla recalls 6,197 Cybertrucks for light bar adhesive issue

The issue was with the primer quality, as the recall report from the NHTSA had stated the light bar had “inadvertently attached to the windshield using the incorrect surface primer.”

Instead of trying to adhere the light bar to the Cybertruck with an adhesive, Tesla is now going to attach it with a bracketing system, which will physically mount it to the vehicle instead of relying on adhesive strips or glue.

Tesla outlines this in its new Service Bulletin, labeled SB-25-90-001, (spotted by Not a Tesla App) where it shows the light bar will be remounted more securely:

The entire process will take a few hours, but it can be completed by the Mobile Service techs, so if you have a Cybertruck that needs a light bar adjustment, it can be done without taking the vehicle to the Service Center for repair.

However, the repair will only happen if there is no delamination or damage present; then Tesla could “retrofit the service-installed optional off-road light bar accessory with a positive mechanical attachment.”

The company said it would repair the light bar at no charge to customers. The light bar issue was one that did not result in any accidents or injuries, according to the NHTSA’s report.

This was the third recall on Cybertruck this year, as one was highlighted in March for exterior trim panels detaching during operation. Another had to do with front parking lights being too bright, which was fixed with an Over-the-Air update last month.

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Tesla is already expanding its Rental program aggressively

The program has already launched in a handful of locations, specifically, it has been confined to California for now. However, it does not seem like Tesla has any interest in keeping it restricted to the Golden State.

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Credit: Grok

Tesla is looking to expand its Rental Program aggressively, just weeks after the program was first spotted on its Careers website.

Earlier this month, we reported on Tesla’s intention to launch a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates, which would give people in various locations the opportunity to borrow a vehicle in the company’s lineup with some outrageous perks.

Along with the cheap rates that start at about $60 per day, Tesla also provides free Full Self-Driving operation and free Supercharging for the duration of the rental. There are also no limits on mileage or charging, but the terms do not allow the renter to leave the state from which they are renting.

The program has already launched in a handful of locations, specifically, it has been confined to California for now. However, it does not seem like Tesla has any interest in keeping it restricted to the Golden State.

Job postings from Tesla now show it is planning to launch the Rental program in at least three new states: Texas, Tennessee, and Massachusetts.

The jobs specifically are listed as a Rental Readiness Specialist, which lists the following job description:

“The Tesla Rental Program is looking for a Rental Readiness Specialist to work on one of the most progressive vehicle brands in the world. The Rental Readiness Specialist is a key contributor to the Tesla experience by coordinating the receipt of incoming new and used vehicle inventory. This position is responsible for fleet/lot management, movement of vehicles, vehicle readiness, rental invoicing, and customer hand-off. Candidates must have a high level of accountability, and personal satisfaction in doing a great job.”

It also says that those who take the position will have to charge and clean the cars, work with clients on scheduling pickups and drop-offs, and prepare the paperwork necessary to initiate the rental.

The establishment of a Rental program is big for Tesla because it not only gives people the opportunity to experience the vehicles, but it is also a new way to rent a car.

Just as the Tesla purchasing process is more streamlined and more efficient than the traditional car-buying experience, it seems this could be less painful and a new way to borrow a car for a trip instead of using your own.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s xAI gains first access to Saudi supercluster with 600k Nvidia GPUs

The facility will deploy roughly 600,000 Nvidia GPUs, making it one of the world’s most notable superclusters.

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A Saudi-backed developer is moving forward with one of the world’s largest AI data centers, and Elon Musk’s xAI will be its first customer. The project, unveiled at the U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C., is being built by Humain, a company supported by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. 

The facility will deploy roughly 600,000 Nvidia GPUs, making it one of the world’s most notable superclusters.

xAI secures priority access

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that the planned data center marks a major leap not just for the region but for the global AI ecosystem as a whole. Huang joked about the sheer capacity of the build, emphasizing how unusual it is for a startup to receive infrastructure of such magnitude. The facility is designed to deliver 500 megawatts of Nvidia GPU power, placing it among the world’s largest AI-focused installations, as noted in a Benzinga report.

“We worked together to get this company started and off the ground and just got an incredible customer with Elon. Could you imagine a startup company, approximately $0 billion in revenues, now going to build a data center for Elon? 500 megawatts is gigantic. This company is off the charts right away,” Huang said.

Global Chipmakers Join Multi-Vendor Buildout To Enhance Compute Diversity

While Nvidia GPUs serve as the backbone of the first phase, Humain is preparing a diversified hardware stack. AMD will supply its Instinct MI450 accelerators, which could draw up to 1 gigawatt of power by 2030 as deployments ramp. Qualcomm will also contribute AI200 and AI250 data center processors, accounting for an additional 200 megawatts of compute capacity. Cisco will support the networking and infrastructure layer, helping knit the multi-chip architecture together.

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Apart from confirming that xAI will be the upcoming supercluster’s first customer, Musk also joked about the rapid scaling needed to train increasingly large AI models. He joked that a theoretical expansion one thousand times larger of the upcoming supercluster “would be 8 bazillion, trillion dollars,” highlighting the playful exaggeration he often brings to discussions around extreme compute demand.

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