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The Tesla Semi’s butterfly effect will change the face of heavy-duty freight routes

Credit: /Graham Carroll

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4 years ago

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In a recent interview, Auke Hoekstra, a researcher at Eindhoven University of Technology and an electric vehicle expert, explained how battery-electric trucks like the Tesla Semi could end up dominating heavy-duty freight routes in regions like Europe. According to the EV expert, weight and range limitations that are usually associated with electric vehicles may very well be quite irrelevant when it comes to the real-world use of the electric long-haulers. 

While addressing questions from Clean Energy Wire, Hoekstra explained that skeptics of vehicles like the Tesla Semi often take the hardest business case that a diesel truck is able to manage. An example of this is a multi-day trip with a team of two drivers who cover thousands of kilometers in one trip. The EV expert explained that while traditional diesels still hold an advantage against their battery-electric competition in this scenario, this edge disappears when one looks at the greater trucking market. 

“My research in the Netherlands has revealed that 80% of trucks – even the really big rigs, the semis – travel 750 kilometers per day at the very most, and many cover far shorter distances. That’s because if you want to cover more kilometers, things become very expensive very quickly, because you have to pay overtime, etcetera. So, in general, you can’t make a driver do more than 750 kilometers per day. Therefore, this is the range you have to hit with about 80 percent of trucks. 

Tesla’s matte black Semi prototype makes a rare appearance at the Kettleman City Supercharger. (Photo: James Douma)

“Additionally, almost all trucks return to base at the end of the day – which creates ideal conditions for charging. We still have this romantic idea that truckers are on the road for weeks on end, away from home. But this scenario has become relatively rare. Most truckers simply move stuff from Rotterdam port to Venlo, halfway to Germany’s Ruhr area, to take an example from home… Many truckers do this sort of trip a couple of times per day, and then return home. So, you can charge the vehicle overnight at a default location. This means you don’t have a chicken and egg problem – you can arrange for the infrastructure and for the truck at the same time,” the EV expert remarked. 

Interestingly enough, Elon Musk has recently remarked that Tesla is looking to release the Semi with a range that falls well within Hoekstra’s numbers. While speaking at the European Battery Conference, Musk stated that he believes it is feasible to achieve 800 kilometers of range for the Semi quite easily, and he also sees a path, over time at least, for the Class 8 truck to achieve an even more impressive 1,000 kilometers per charge. Such numbers can go a long way towards shifting the market’s perception of all-electric long-haulers and their limitations. Hoekstra, for his part, noted that such a scenario has already happened before with the original Tesla Roadster. 

The Tesla Semi visits Yandell Truckaway. (Credit: Arash Malek)

“I do remember that in the car market, things really changed when the Roadster hit the market. That really changed the conversation. It changed the whole perception of electric vehicles. The conventional wisdom back then was that you can only use them on short distances in the city. And suddenly this car appeared, and everything was possible.

“Within the next couple of years, we’ll see the first Tesla semi-trucks on the road. This will have a similarly huge impact on the conversation about electric trucks. You can just point to it and say: “Look, it’s moving there, and it is doing 800 kilometers.” Suddenly, all those people who say ‘it cannot be done’ within truck companies will hear their boss replying: ‘Well, our competitor can do it – so you will have to do it, too.’” Hoekstra said. 

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What’s quite remarkable is that this is not even the most exciting part of the Semi’s butterfly effect on the trucking sector. If the Tesla Semi finds solid footing in the trucking market in the same way the Model 3 found a good niche among premium midsize sedan buyers, a “Tesla Effect” of sorts could happen on the trucking market. This could come in the form of other battery-electric trucks being developed for the long-haul market. This should, in turn, result in a massive innovation push from several truck makers, similar to what is happening now with companies like Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and veterans like Ford and GM in the consumer EV segment. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla could face emissions credit tax in Washington

Tesla could be subject to a tax on its emissions credit sales in Washington, just ahead of the beginning of the state’s phase-out of gas vehicles.

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2 hours ago

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April 21, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla could face a new tax on the emissions credits it sells to other automakers, as introduced this month by legislators in the state of Washington.

As detailed in an op-ed from the Wall Street Journal on Monday, Democrats in Olympia have filed two companion bills proposing a 10 percent tax on the electric vehicle (EV) emissions credits Tesla sells, valued at roughly $1.79 billion globally last year. The emission credits market was created out of regulations requiring automakers to start phasing out gas vehicles, allowing Tesla, which only makes EVs, to sell the credits to gas automakers which aren’t able to meet the upcoming phase-out goals.

“The creation of these tradeable and bankable credits creates the opportunity for a financial windfall accruing to firms that are not burdened by the legacy production of internal combustion engine vehicle,” legislators wrote in the proposal. “It is the intent of the legislature to address this unintended outcome by taxing the windfall profits.”

Olympia Republicans went on to file a counter to the bill, which would effectively prohibit such a tax as well as “any other tax that applies to only one individual, business, or entity.”

READ MORE ON TESLA EMISSIONS CREDITS: Tesla to help automakers comply with the EU’s 2025 CO2 emission rules

Washington joined California in 2020 in setting regulations to phase out gas vehicles by 2035, requiring a maximum of 20 percent plugin hybrid vehicles sold in the year along with making 80 percent of the year’s sales fully electric. The initial phase-out regulations kick off in 2026, requiring automakers to make 35 percent of their new vehicles fully electric or plugin hybrids, before that level increases to 51 percent in 2028, and 68 percent in 2030.

Tesla’s vehicle sales in Washington made up just 10 percent of those sold in the state last year, while the company has about 54 percent of all emissions credits in the state, according to the Washington Policy Center.

The Wall Street Journal editorial calls the new proposals “abusive lawmaking,” saying that targeting a single company would be strongly opposed by progressives if it were suggested by the Trump administration. Additionally, the op-ed highlights that Tesla and CEO Elon Musk set the price for the emissions credits, meaning that they could simply charge automakers more for them to make up for money lost on the tax.

U.S. Supreme Court to hear challenge on California emission rule waiver

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Tesla’s Hollywood Diner is finally getting close to opening

Tesla’s construction of the Southern California diner, drive-in, and Supercharger hasn’t exactly been quick, but it appears to be getting close to opening.

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5 hours ago

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April 21, 2025

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Credit: HowardModels | Twitter

Tesla looks to be getting closer to opening its highly anticipated diner, drive-in movie theater, and Supercharger location in Southern California, after the company began construction on the project in the latter part of 2023.

On Sunday, X user BLKMDL3 stopped by the Hollywood Tesla Diner location and shared photos of the site, noting that Superchargers are now lit up, parking lots are fully paved, and construction generally appears to be nearing completion. The news comes after Tesla has been building out the site for around 18 months, which many have pointed out is longer than some of the company’s latest production facilities have taken.

Tesla has yet to disclose when it plans to open the Supercharger location, though it appears to be getting closer than ever, at least as far as construction is concerned. The company also included some code related to integration with the diner in its latest version of the Tesla mobile app in January, along with posting its first job listings for the site in August.

You can see the latest progress on the Tesla Diner below, courtesy of X user BLKMDL3.

Credit: BLKMDL3 | X

Credit: BLKMDL3 | X

Credit: BLKMDL3 | X

READ MORE ON TESLA SUPERCHARGERS: Tesla is building a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country

The user also notes that the adjacent parking lot is being built out to include additional Supercharger stalls, with the actual lots for the diner including around 28 to 32 stalls total, consistent with permits for the project. Next door, the user says the company is building roughly an additional 50 or so stalls, though these aren’t likely to be open when the diner initially opens.

The site is located at 7001 West Santa Monica Boulevard, and according to Elon Musk’s original concepts for the Supercharger discussed on what was then Twitter in 2018, the unique charger is set to include a 1950s-style diner with rock and roll and waiters on roller skates, in addition to drive-in theater screens playing scenes from the best movies in history.

Tesla gained a series of construction permits for the project throughout 2023, before officially beginning construction in September 2023. You can see photos from the site below, taken just weeks after groundbreaking, as well as in January and April of last year.

Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in November 2023

Credit: Ed Howard | X

Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in January 2024

Credit: Fox 11 Los Angeles

Credit: ShorealoneFilms | X

Tesla’s LA Diner and Supercharger in April 2024

Credit: 247Tesla | YouTube

Credit: 247Tesla | YouTube

Tesla exec highlights advantages of prefabricated Superchargers

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Tesla building apparent Cybercab castings ahead of launch

Tesla has been producing what look like some Cybercab castings at Giga Texas, as spotted this week ahead of the vehicle’s upcoming launch.

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6 hours ago

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April 21, 2025

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Tesla’s Gigafactory in Texas is building what appear to be castings for the upcoming Cybercab, ahead of the vehicle’s launch and the highly anticipated debut of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD).

On Monday, Tesla Giga Texas site observer Joe Tegtmeyer shared photos on X of some unique castings out beside the factory. Notably, Tegtmeyer points out that the castings are quite different from those of the Model Y and Cybertruck, which are currently the only two vehicles being produced at the Austin, Texas plant—at least publicly.

Some viewers noted that the castings appear to have a similar shape to the Cybercab, along with being one single casting, compared to the two-piece Giga casts the factory produces for the Model Y and Cybertruck. The shape appears to be consistent with Tesla’s unboxed production process, which is expected to build single-piece castings and will be used for the upcoming Cybercab.

You can see Tegtmeyer’s photos of the castings below, in comparison with the Cybercab body and castings for the Model Y and Cybertruck.

Giga Texas castings April 21, 2025, compared to Cybercab

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Giga Texas Model Y rear casting

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Giga Texas Cybertruck castings

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

READ MORE ON TESLA’S GIGA TEXAS: Tesla Cybercab no longer using chase vehicles in Giga Texas

In March, Tesla Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy confirmed in an interview with manufacturing expert Sandy Munro that Cybercab production would be starting prototype builds this summer, while the automaker is aiming to ramp for volume production in 2026.

While it isn’t summer yet, executives also confirmed in January that Cybercab production lines were already being prepared at Giga Texas, so it’s not unlikely that these castings are some of the upcoming vehicle’s first prototype builds.

The unboxed production process is also expected to revolutionize the automotive manufacturing industry, with CEO Elon Musk emphasizing how different the production line looks compared to its past vehicles during the Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting. Instead, Musk says the production line appears more like a high-speed consumer electronics line, and it’s expected to push Cybercab builds out in less than five seconds.

In a post on X earlier this month, Musk also reiterated that the Cybercab production line and the factory in general are essentially the products on their own, rather than just the cars themselves.

“The Tesla factory, especially our next gen Cybercab line, is the product,” Musk said. “That, autonomy and Optimus, are what matter.”

Tesla is also aiming to launch its first commercial robotaxi services around Austin, Texas this summer, along with launching its first iterations of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised. The company is also holding its Q1 earnings call on Tuesday, during which executives are expected to address questions about the Cybercab and the upcoming commercial robotaxi service.

Tesla’s Giga Texas vehicles now drive themselves to outbound lot

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