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Tesla Stock Soars 16+% in 1 Day
Tesla’s Model S sedan is red hot.
By Silicon Valley standards, 10-year-old Tesla Motors is middle-aged. But in the world of automotive startups, it’s just crossed a threshold few fledgling companies ever get near: profitability. Late last night California time — in time to make it clear this was no April Fools joke — the company announced it has delivered 4750 cars in the first quarter and expected to report an accounting profit when it announces its official results next month. While the company’s vehicles lack engines, in the past 6 months, it’s begun to hit on all cylinders:
- Shipments of the Model S sedan begin late last year with 2400 delivered in the fourth quarter. The company nearly doubled that in the next 3 months.
- Tesla launched its high-speed “Supercharger” charging stations, which allow recharging half the battery pack in about 30 minutes. Last week, it announced plans to expand the network in the Pacific northwest, Texas, Illinois, and Florida, while improving coverage in the initial regions in the northeast and California.
- The company announced a plan to pay back its Department of Energy loan 5 years ahead of schedule, by the end of 2017. This $465 million loan, part of the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Program, was essential to the launch of the Model S and came at a time when Tesla’s future was very much in doubt.
Today, though, that future looks bright enough that the naysayers holding more than 30 million shares short may be wishing they were betting against something else. CEO Elon Musk mentioned on Twitter last week that he had a big announcement to make regarding Tesla (due tomorrow) and clarified last night that this isn’t it: “Also, some may differ, but imo the Tues news is arguably more important,” he wrote. Depending on the nature of that, I may be back with another post.
There was some more interesting news in yesterday’s press release on profitability. The company canceled an option to buy the Model S with the smallest battery, a version that retailed for just around $52,000 after the federal tax credit. Why? Lack of demand. It seems only 4% of buyers were opting for that smallest configuration. They’ll still get it, but instead of producing a battery that small, Tesla will sell them a car with the mid-sized battery and disable part of the capacity in software. If owners — present or future — wish to upgrade to the larger capacity, Tesla will allow them to purchase some software magic to make it happen. The mid-sized battery offers a range of just over 200 miles per the EPA and the smallest battery has about 2/3 the capacity. Given there was a $10,000 gap between the two, it’s noteworthy that people were rejecting the smallest battery so clearly.
This points out the radically different approach Tesla is taking versus Nissan with the Leaf and really everyone else building electric vehicles right now. The two sizes of Tesla people are choosing are 200+ mile vehicle while the other brands are sold as 70-80 mile commuter vehicles. Apparently, a “tweener” that gets around 140 miles wasn’t something Tesla customers wanted and might not be appealing to much of anyone as it doesn’t really address the “go almost anywhere” problem Tesla is solving and doesn’t really do much for commuters. (More than 80% of commutes in the U.S. can be made roundtrip in a Leaf.)
In addition to eliminating the small battery, Tesla also decided to build access to the Supercharger network in every car. It was already standard with the largest battery and is still an option with the smaller one, but now you can decide to add the option after purchase because — again — it’s a software change. The Superchargers are free “fill-ups” along highway corridors, but those with the smaller battery will pay $2000 for the privilege. This software-upgradeable car might not be as much of a milestone as a 200+ mile EV is, but it has already become a hallmark of the way Tesla works and really shows how Silicon Valley DNA can be an important part of this 21st century automaker.
When the company announced its earnings last quarter, the news actually disappointed investors. On some level, that was odd because the quarter inherently represented a transition where production was ramping up and it would be hard to really get a sense of what the business looked like on a steady-state basis. This quarter, however, is going to provide a very real snapshot into Tesla as a business. Through the rest of 2013 and well into next year, the company is likely to look as it does this quarter, with small improvements in unit shipments and gross margin over each quarter until the company begins delivering its Model X crossover late in 2014. None of that is likely exciting to watch, but it is likely to be material financially.
If deliveries do creep into the range of 6000-7000 per quarter — which is expected — and the company hits its gross margin goal of 25% by year end, this quarter’s profit is going to be pretty small compared to the ones set to come. It’s this kind of steady profitable growth upon which you build a company that will be around for a long time to come. And with the focus on larger batteries and more Superchargers, Tesla seems to be saying its cars are going to run long and far as well.
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Tesla FSD (Supervised) could be approved in the Netherlands next month: Musk
Musk shared the update during a recent interview at Giga Berlin.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared that Full Self-Driving (FSD) could receive regulatory approval in the Netherlands as soon as March 20, potentially marking a major step forward for Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance rollout in Europe.
Musk shared the update during a recent interview at Giga Berlin, noting that the date was provided by local authorities.
“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully, it will be approved soon in Europe. We’re told by the authorities that March 20th, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands,’ what I was told,” Musk stated.
“Hopefully, that date remains the same. But I think people in Europe are going to be pretty blown away by how good the Tesla car AI is in being able to drive.”
Tesla’s FSD system relies on vision-based neural networks trained on real-world driving data, allowing vehicles to navigate using cameras and AI rather than traditional sensor-heavy solutions.
The performance of FSD Supervised has so far been impressive. As per Tesla’s safety report, Full Self-Driving Supervised has already traveled 8.3 billion miles. So far, vehicles operating with FSD Supervised engaged recorded one major collision every 5,300,676 miles.
In comparison, Teslas driven manually with Active Safety systems recorded one major collision every 2,175,763 miles, while Teslas driven manually without Active Safety recorded one major collision every 855,132 miles. The U.S. average during the same period was one major collision every 660,164 miles.
If approval is granted on March 20, the Netherlands could become the first European market to greenlight Tesla’s latest supervised FSD (Supervised) software under updated regulatory frameworks. Tesla has been working to secure expanded FSD access across Europe, where regulatory standards differ significantly from those in the United States. Approval in the Netherlands would likely serve as a foundation for broader EU adoption, though additional country-level clearances may still be required.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk estimates Tesla Semi could reach Europe next year
“We’ve got the Tesla Semi coming out, the heavy truck, and that’ll be going to Europe hopefully next year,” Musk said.
Tesla is preparing to expand its all-electric Semi truck program to Europe, with CEO Elon Musk indicating that the Class 8 vehicle could arrive in the region 2027.
Musk shared his update during an interview about Giga Berlin with plant manager André Thierig, which was posted on X by the official Tesla Manufacturing account.
“We’ve got the Tesla Semi coming out, the heavy truck, and that’ll be going to Europe hopefully next year,” he said.
Tesla has already begun limited production and customer deployments of the Tesla Semi in the United States, with the company working to scale output through the Semi factory near Giga Nevada. Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that a European rollout would be the next phase of the vehicle’s expansion beyond North America.
Musk’s use of the word “hopefully” leaves room for flexibility, but the remark signals that Europe is next in Tesla’s commercial expansion plans.
Musk has consistently argued that electrification should extend beyond passenger vehicles. During the same interview, he reiterated his view that “all ground transport should be electric,” adding that ships, and eventually aircraft, would follow.
The Semi plays a central role in that strategy. Heavy-duty freight remains one of the most emissions-intensive segments of road transport, and European regulators have increasingly pushed for lower-emission commercial fleets.
Tesla recently refreshed the Semi lineup on its official website, listing two variants: Standard and Long Range. The Standard trim offers up to 325 miles of range with an energy consumption rating of 1.7 kWh per mile, while the Long Range version provides up to 500 miles, which should be more than ample for European routes.
Elon Musk
Tesla Cybercab coming next to Giga Berlin, Optimus possibly after
“From a next major product standpoint, I think most likely is the Tesla Cybercab,” Musk said.
Tesla could add the Cybercab and Optimus humanoid robot to the production lineup at Giga Berlin, as per recent comments from CEO Elon Musk.
During a recent interview with Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig, Musk identified the Cybercab as the most likely next major product for the German factory, with Optimus potentially following after.
“From a next major product standpoint, I think most likely is the Tesla Cybercab,” Musk said. He added that there are also “possibilities of Tesla Optimus” being produced in the facility.
Tesla has already begun production of the Cybercab in Giga Texas, with volume production expected to ramp this year. Based on Musk’s comments, it appears that if conditions align in Europe, Giga Berlin could eventually join that effort.
The CEO’s comments about Optimus coming to Gigafactory Berlin are quite unsurprising too considering that Musk has mentioned in the past that the humanoid robot will likely be Tesla’s highest volume product in the long run.
Giga Berlin will likely be able to produce mass volumes of Optimus, as the Model S and Model X lines being converted to an Optimus line in the Fremont Factory are already expected to produce 1 million units of the humanoid robot annually.
Apart from his comments about the Cybercab and Optimus, Elon Musk also confirmed that Giga Berlin has started ramping battery cell production and will continue expanding Model Y output, particularly as supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) gains regulatory approvals in Europe.
Taken together, the remarks suggest Berlin’s role could evolve beyond vehicle assembly into a broader multi-product manufacturing hub, not just a regional Model Y plant.
Tesla FSD (Supervised) could be approved in the Netherlands next month: Musk
Elon Musk estimates Tesla Semi could reach Europe next year
