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Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available.

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The $7,500 EV tax credit has officially expired, as it came to its closure at midnight on September 30. Many are wondering what will happen to the EV makers in the United States that had a huge competitive advantage over their competitors, a $7,500 discount that could be applied at the point of sale.

Tesla stands to thrive from the lack of tax credit, and although it is hard to believe, brighter days could be ahead for the company, starting with Q4, which began today.

Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available:

No Tax Credit Means Price Cuts

Tesla has to adjust its pricing strategy now that the $7,500 tax credit is gone, and when it lost the previous tax credit after reaching its cap in 2019, it used a more affordable model to surge sales. At the time, that more affordable model was the Model 3.

Tesla boosted deliveries by over 50 percent that year without any tax credit by simply offering a cheaper model. The credit, in a way, distorts the market, and companies, while attempting to innovate, are able to offer the discount with the help of the government.

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Tesla price cuts push EV market toward affordability with broader influence

Companies will now have to weigh what they can discount their vehicles by to keep profits reasonable, but also stoke demand.

Ultimately, Tesla has the ability to use manufacturing and technological efficiencies to increase affordability. It has more control to fluctuate pricing, and price cuts could be on the way.

The Playing Field Becomes Fairer

Companies like Ford and General Motors have also reaped the benefits of the tax credit, but their situation is much different than Tesla’s.

Ford and GM are not profitable on their EV projects, so the EV tax credit has been relied upon to mask high production costs and dealer markups, which have widely impacted their demand. Ford is among the more popular brands that have dipped their toes into the EV market, but they have been forced to adjust their strategy on several occasions due to a lack of profits.

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Tesla’s vehicles have been profitable for some time, and the company has been able to make money from its offerings faster. Cybertruck was profitable after just one year of production.

Tesla Cybertruck achieves positive gross margin for first time

Removing subsidies will expose the financial weaknesses of those domestic competitors, and we will likely see those companies scale back their EV efforts in the coming months and years. This will help Tesla more than having access to the tax credit would, which is something CEO Elon Musk has said for years:

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Tesla’s Maturity Shows and Investor Confidence Will Boost

Tesla was once dismissed as a subsidy-dependent startup, but that narrative truly died years ago, as it continued to perform well against competitors even after losing the tax credit.

Musk has said himself that the cancellation of these subsidies “will only help Tesla,” as it will highlight the company’s ability to be self-sufficient.

Elon Musk reiterates call for all subsidies on all industries to be removed

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Using things like manufacturing efficiencies and vertical integration, Tesla has been less dependent than others on help to build its cars. If anything, investors will likely see the next few months as a make-or-break period for companies building EVs.

Subsidies Sometimes Can Inhibit True Innovation

Some companies can tend to become complacent when government subsidies are offered on their products. Instead of making things better and trying to find new ways to make cars more affordable, some can lean on the help they’re getting.

After subsidies ended for Tesla in 2019, the company achieved two major breakthroughs: the Cybertruck and its energy storage projects scaled to gigawatt-hours. The argument is not that Tesla becomes complacent with the tax credits, but the company is going to feel more pressure to fight for innovation now that its back is up against the wall.

It already offers a better product from a tech standpoint, so affordability could truly be the next major change we see.

Affordable Models Will Be Even More Sought After

Tesla will launch its affordable models this quarter, and with no more tax credit to lean on, these new cars will be what many consumers go for.

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If Tesla can launch a model that is close to $30,000 without a tax credit, the company stands to regain a significant portion of its market share from competitors that have eroded it over the past few years. This will undercut the vast majority of electric cars that are currently offered.

  • 2025 Nissan Leaf S Trim – $28,140
  • 2025 Fiat 500e Base Trim – $32,500
  • 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV – $33,600

Those are the three most affordable EVs available in the U.S. right now, and those prices are without the EV tax credit. If Tesla can get close to $30,000, it will truly make a mark and there might not be all that much of a change in its yearly delivery figures.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Tesla says texting and driving capability is coming ‘in a month or two’

“In the next month or two, we’re going to look at the safety statistics, but we’re going to allow you to text and drive, essentially.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that within the next month or two, the company will be able to open the ability for people to text and drive because its Full Self-Driving suite will be robust enough to allow drivers to take their attention away from the road.

In its current state, Tesla Full Self-Driving is a supervised driver assistance suite that requires the vehicle operator to maintain control of the vehicle and pay attention to the road surroundings.

However, the company has been aiming to release a fully autonomous version of the Full Self-Driving suite for years, teasing its future potential and aiming to release a Level 5 suite as soon as possible.

CEO Elon Musk believes the company is on the cusp of something drastic, according to what he said at yesterday’s Annual Shareholder Meeting.

One thing Musk hinted at was that the company should be able to allow those sitting in the driver’s seat of their cars to text and drive “in the next month or two,” as long as the statistics look good.

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He said:

“In the next month or two, we’re going to look at the safety statistics, but we’re going to allow you to text and drive, essentially.”

The company recently transitioned to its v14 Full Self-Driving suite, which is its most robust to date, and recently expanded to Cybertruck, completing its rollout across the vehicle lineup.

Currently, Tesla is running v14.1.5, and when major improvements are made, that second number will increase, meaning v14.2 will be the next substantial improvement.

Musk said that v14.3 will be when you can “pretty much fall asleep and wake up at your destination.”

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We’ve heard a considerable amount of similar statements in the past, and Tesla owners have been conditioned to take some of these timeframes with autonomous driving with a grain of salt.

However, with the upgrades in FSD over the past few months, especially with the rollout of Robotaxi in Austin, which does not utilize anyone in the driver’s seat for local roads, it does not seem as if autonomy is that far off for Tesla.

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Tesla Optimus’ pilot line will already have an incredible annual output

And this would just be the beginning. In the future, Musk mused that Optimus’ production could literally be out of this world.

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(Credit: Tesla)

During the 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elon Musk provided a teaser of the company’s targets for Optimus’s annual production. As per the CEO, Optimus’ pilot line will be capable of producing up to one million units annually. 

And this would just be the beginning. In the future, Musk mused that Optimus’ production could literally be out of this world.

Musk targets world’s fastest production ramp for Optimus robots

Tesla’s first Optimus line will be built in Fremont, California, and is projected to produce around one million robots per year. Other facilities like Gigafactory Texas could scale Optimus production to 10 million units annually. Musk even joked that a 100-million-unit line might one day be built “on Mars.” With Optimus, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to achieve a historic production ramp. 

“So we’re going to launch on the fastest production ramp of any product of any large complex manufactured product ever, starting with building a one million unit production line in Fremont. And that’s Line One. And then a 10-million-unit-per-year production line here (at Giga Texas). I don’t know where we’re going to put the one hundred million unit production line, maybe on Mars. But I think it’s going to literally get to one hundred million a year, maybe even a billion a year,” Musk said.

Optimus and sustainable abundance

Tesla’s Master Plan Part IV is all about sustainable abundance, and Musk highlighted that the humanoid robot will play a huge role in his vision for the future. He noted that Optimus’ mass production could redefine economic and social systems worldwide and open up premium services for everyone across the globe. 

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“People often talk about eliminating poverty or giving everyone amazing medical care. There’s only one way to do that, and that’s with the Optimus robot,” Musk said. “With humanoid robots, you can actually give everyone amazing medical care. In terms of Optimus will be more precise. Optimus will ultimately be better than the best human surgeon with a level of precision that is beyond human… People always talked about eliminating poverty, but actually, Optimus will actually eliminate poverty,” Musk said.

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Tesla schedules Roadster unveiling event, and you won’t believe when it is

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Tesla has tentatively scheduled its unveiling event for the Roadster’s next-generation iteration, and you will not believe the date the company picked for it.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during the 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting that the company is aiming for an April 1 demo event.

Yes, April Fools’ Day.

Tesla originally aimed for its “most epic demo” to take place at the end of this year. However, the writing on the wall as 2025 winds down seemed to indicate the company was not quite ready to show off everything it plans to implement into the Roadster.

Its capabilities have been teased quite heavily throughout most of the year, but the biggest hints came last week when Musk appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast.

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

The Roadster has been somewhat of a letdown, at least in its newest version, thus far. Tesla has routinely delayed the project, putting those who put lofty down payments on the car in a weird limbo, lost at what to do.

One notable pre-orderer cancelled his reservation last week and got in a spat with Musk about it.

Now that there is a definitive date for the Roadster unveiling, Musk and Co. should have a more definitive cutoff date for features and capabilities. Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen said earlier this year that when they showed Musk what they had done with the Roadster, the CEO encouraged them to do even more with it.

This delayed things further.

Musk also said he believes production would begin between 12 and 18 months after the unveiling, putting it out sometime in 2027.

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