Elon Musk
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available.
The $7,500 EV tax credit has officially expired, as it came to its closure at midnight on September 30. Many are wondering what will happen to the EV makers in the United States that had a huge competitive advantage over their competitors, a $7,500 discount that could be applied at the point of sale.
Tesla stands to thrive from the lack of tax credit, and although it is hard to believe, brighter days could be ahead for the company, starting with Q4, which began today.
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available:
No Tax Credit Means Price Cuts
Tesla has to adjust its pricing strategy now that the $7,500 tax credit is gone, and when it lost the previous tax credit after reaching its cap in 2019, it used a more affordable model to surge sales. At the time, that more affordable model was the Model 3.
Tesla boosted deliveries by over 50 percent that year without any tax credit by simply offering a cheaper model. The credit, in a way, distorts the market, and companies, while attempting to innovate, are able to offer the discount with the help of the government.
Tesla price cuts push EV market toward affordability with broader influence
Companies will now have to weigh what they can discount their vehicles by to keep profits reasonable, but also stoke demand.
Ultimately, Tesla has the ability to use manufacturing and technological efficiencies to increase affordability. It has more control to fluctuate pricing, and price cuts could be on the way.
The Playing Field Becomes Fairer
Companies like Ford and General Motors have also reaped the benefits of the tax credit, but their situation is much different than Tesla’s.
Ford and GM are not profitable on their EV projects, so the EV tax credit has been relied upon to mask high production costs and dealer markups, which have widely impacted their demand. Ford is among the more popular brands that have dipped their toes into the EV market, but they have been forced to adjust their strategy on several occasions due to a lack of profits.
Tesla’s vehicles have been profitable for some time, and the company has been able to make money from its offerings faster. Cybertruck was profitable after just one year of production.
Tesla Cybertruck achieves positive gross margin for first time
Removing subsidies will expose the financial weaknesses of those domestic competitors, and we will likely see those companies scale back their EV efforts in the coming months and years. This will help Tesla more than having access to the tax credit would, which is something CEO Elon Musk has said for years:
First of all, Tesla hasn’t had that consumer tax credit for years & we didn’t ask for this one – GM & Ford did
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 6, 2022
In my view, we should end all government subsidies, including those for EVs, oil and gas
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 14, 2024
Tesla’s Maturity Shows and Investor Confidence Will Boost
Tesla was once dismissed as a subsidy-dependent startup, but that narrative truly died years ago, as it continued to perform well against competitors even after losing the tax credit.
Musk has said himself that the cancellation of these subsidies “will only help Tesla,” as it will highlight the company’s ability to be self-sufficient.
Elon Musk reiterates call for all subsidies on all industries to be removed
Using things like manufacturing efficiencies and vertical integration, Tesla has been less dependent than others on help to build its cars. If anything, investors will likely see the next few months as a make-or-break period for companies building EVs.
Subsidies Sometimes Can Inhibit True Innovation
Some companies can tend to become complacent when government subsidies are offered on their products. Instead of making things better and trying to find new ways to make cars more affordable, some can lean on the help they’re getting.
After subsidies ended for Tesla in 2019, the company achieved two major breakthroughs: the Cybertruck and its energy storage projects scaled to gigawatt-hours. The argument is not that Tesla becomes complacent with the tax credits, but the company is going to feel more pressure to fight for innovation now that its back is up against the wall.
It already offers a better product from a tech standpoint, so affordability could truly be the next major change we see.
Affordable Models Will Be Even More Sought After
Tesla will launch its affordable models this quarter, and with no more tax credit to lean on, these new cars will be what many consumers go for.
If Tesla can launch a model that is close to $30,000 without a tax credit, the company stands to regain a significant portion of its market share from competitors that have eroded it over the past few years. This will undercut the vast majority of electric cars that are currently offered.
- 2025 Nissan Leaf S Trim – $28,140
- 2025 Fiat 500e Base Trim – $32,500
- 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV – $33,600
Those are the three most affordable EVs available in the U.S. right now, and those prices are without the EV tax credit. If Tesla can get close to $30,000, it will truly make a mark and there might not be all that much of a change in its yearly delivery figures.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s X will start using a Tesla-like software update strategy
The initiative seems designed to accelerate updates to the social media platform, while maintaining maximum transparency.
Elon Musk’s social media platform X will adopt a Tesla-esque approach to software updates for its algorithm.
The initiative seems designed to accelerate updates to the social media platform, while maintaining maximum transparency.
X’s updates to its updates
As per Musk in a post on X, the social media company will be making a new algorithm to determine what organic and advertising posts are recommended to users. These updates would then be repeated every four weeks.
“We will make the new 𝕏 algorithm, including all code used to determine what organic and advertising posts are recommended to users, open source in 7 days. This will be repeated every 4 weeks, with comprehensive developer notes, to help you understand what changed,” Musk wrote in his post.
The initiative somewhat mirrors Tesla’s over-the-air update model, where vehicle software is regularly refined and pushed to users with detailed release notes. This should allow users to better understand the details of X’s every update and foster a healthy feedback loop for the social media platform.
xAI and X
X, formerly Twitter, has been acquired by Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI last year. Since then, xAI has seen a rapid rise in valuation. Following the company’s the company’s upsized $20 billion Series E funding round, estimates now suggest that xAI is worth tens about $230 to $235 billion. That’s several times larger than Tesla when Elon Musk received his controversial 2018 CEO Performance Award.
As per xAI, the Series E funding round attracted a diverse group of investors, including Valor Equity Partners, Stepstone Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company, Qatar Investment Authority, MGX, and Baron Capital Group, among others. Strategic partners NVIDIA and Cisco Investments also continued support for building the world’s largest GPU clusters.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI bets $20B on Mississippi with 2GW AI data center project
The project is expected to create hundreds of permanent jobs, dramatically expand xAI’s computing capacity, and further cement the Mid-South as a growing hub for AI infrastructure.
Elon Musk’s xAI plans to pour more than $20 billion into a massive new data center campus in Southaven, Mississippi, marking the largest single economic development project in the state’s history.
The project is expected to create hundreds of permanent jobs, dramatically expand xAI’s computing capacity, and further cement the Mid-South as a growing hub for AI infrastructure.
xAI goes MACROHARDRR in Mississippi
xAI has acquired and is retrofitting an existing facility in Southaven to serve as a new data center, which will be known as “MACROHARDRR.” The site sits near a recently acquired power plant and close to one of xAI’s existing data centers in Tennessee, creating a regional cluster designed to support large-scale AI training and inference.
Once completed, the Southaven facility is expected to push the company’s total computing capacity to nearly 2 GW, placing it among the most powerful AI compute installations globally. The data center is scheduled to begin operations in February 2026.
Gov. Tate Reeves shared his optimism about the project in a press release. “This record-shattering $20 billion investment is an amazing start to what is sure to be another incredible year for economic development in Mississippi. Today, Elon Musk is bringing xAI to DeSoto County, a project that will transform the region and bring amazing opportunities to its residents for generations. This is the largest economic development project in Mississippi’s history,” he said.
xAI’s broader AI ambitions
To secure the investment, the Mississippi Development Authority approved xAI for its Data Center Incentive program, which provides sales and use tax exemptions on eligible computing hardware and software. The City of Southaven and DeSoto County are also supporting the project through fee-in-lieu agreements aimed at accelerating development timelines and reducing upfront costs.
Founded in 2023 by Elon Musk, xAI develops advanced artificial intelligence systems focused on large-scale reasoning and generative applications. Its flagship product, Grok, is integrated with the social media platform X, alongside a growing suite of APIs for image generation, voice, and autonomous agents, including offerings tailored for government use.
Elon Musk highlighted xAi’s growth and momentum in a comment about the matter. “xAI is scaling at an immeasurable pace — we are building our third massive data center in the greater Memphis area. MACROHARDRR pushes our Colossus training compute to ~2GW – by far the most powerful AI system on Earth. This is insane execution speed by xAI and the state of Mississippi. We are grateful to Governor Reeves for his support of building xAI at warp speed,” Musk said.
Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, says that something that was expected with version 14.3 of the company’s Full Self-Driving platform has already partially shipped with the current build of version 14.2.
Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have teased on several occasions that reasoning will be a big piece of future Full Self-Driving builds, helping bring forth the “sentient” narrative that the company has pushed for these more advanced FSD versions.
Back in October on the Q3 Earnings Call, Musk said:
“With reasoning, it’s literally going to think about which parking spot to pick. It’ll drop you off at the entrance of the store, then go find a parking spot. It’s going to spot empty spots much better than a human. It’s going to use reasoning to solve things.”
Musk said in the same month:
“By v14.3, your car will feel like it is sentient.”
Amazingly, Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.2.2, which is the most recent iteration released, is very close to this sentient feeling. However, there are more things that need to be improved, and logic appears to be in the future plans to help with decision-making in general, alongside other refinements and features.
On Thursday evening, Elluswamy revealed that some of the reasoning features have already been rolled out, confirming that it has been added to navigation route changes during construction, as well as with parking options.
He added that “more and more reasoning will ship in Q1.”
🚨 Tesla’s Ashok Elluswamy reveals Nav decisions when encountering construction and parking options contain “some elements of reasoning”
More uses of reasoning will be shipped later this quarter, a big tidbit of info as we wait v14.3 https://t.co/jty8llgsKM
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 9, 2026
Interestingly, parking improvements were hinted at being added in the initial rollout of v14.2 several months ago. These had not rolled out to vehicles quite yet, as they were listed under the future improvements portion of the release notes, but it appears things have already started to make their way to cars in a limited fashion.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
As reasoning is more involved in more of the Full Self-Driving suite, it is likely we will see cars make better decisions in terms of routing and navigation, which is a big complaint of many owners (including me).
Additionally, the operation as a whole should be smoother and more comfortable to owners, which is hard to believe considering how good it is already. Nevertheless, there are absolutely improvements that need to be made before Tesla can introduce completely unsupervised FSD.
Elon Musk’s X will start using a Tesla-like software update strategy
Tesla FSD Supervised wins MotorTrend’s Best Driver Assistance Award
