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Investor's Corner

Tesla set to access up to $20B in revenues from Supercharger deals, Dan Ives says

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to access up to $20 billion in revenues from its recent Supercharger deals with Ford, General Motors, and various other automakers, Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note this morning.

Tesla’s Supercharger Network is the most robust and expansive on the planet, and earlier this Summer, it gained massive attention when it struck deals with various OEMs to allow their EVs to access the charging infrastructure starting in Spring 2024.

While Aptera was the first to have access by adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, or NACS, connector, Ford and General Motors followed suit in two announcements that shook the EV industry.

These partnerships then catalyzed various other automakers, including Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, and others, to make the same move. The adoption of NACS is set to bring Tesla major revenue increases through the rest of the decade, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who is a top analyst covering the automaker and the sector as a whole.

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Tesla’s NACS Contributing to Revenue

Ives wrote in a note this morning to investors:

“To dive deeper into this sum-of-the-parts valuation, we modeled & projected out Tesla’s supercharger network, taking into account access & revenues from other OEMs using stations across the United States. Ultimately, we estimate that Tesla’s supercharger business will be roughly 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.”

Ives wrote in the note that while the Supercharger Network opening to OEMs is a major part of the Tesla story, it is just that: one part.

(Credit: Tesla)

Strong production figures, a thriving energy business, continuous improvement on the side of the development of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, an “unmatched battery ecosystem,” and increased production and scale scope are all contributing to a strong financial sheet for Tesla.

“…we believe Tesla is in a prime position to further capitalize on the EV transformation taking place as part of the government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050,” Ives wrote.

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Cybertruck Deliveries ‘Highly Anticipated’

In addition to the strong revenue stream that will come with the opening of Superchargers to OEMs, other Tesla projects are also set to drive profitability, notably the Cybertruck.

“With the delivery numbers representing its flagship model fleet, the much-anticipated Cybertruck remains a hot commodity in the market with the company taking in 1.5 – 1.8 million reservations,” Ives writes.

Elon Musk teases a ‘production candidate’ Cybertruck at Giga Texas

However, recent figures show over 1.9 million reservations held for the Cybertruck currently.

“While preparing for the launch in FY3Q23, the Cybertruck puts TSLA in a great position to capitalize on the growing need for electric pickups with the electric truck market growing at a 31% CAGR through 2032.”

Full Self-Driving and Its Contributions to Profits

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is another major contributor to the automaker’s growing profitability and will drive the automaker’s total addressable market upward. Continuing to refine the suite’s performance through neural network training, the suite, along with Autopilot, has already contributed over 150 million miles of data.

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There are more improvements on the way.

“Last week, the company announced its V12 update, an FSD package with end-to-end AI for improved driving smoothness through turns while enhancing both decision-making and detection in TSLA’s journey with the aim of achieving full autonomy this year,” Ives writes.

Ives holds a $350 price target and an “Outperform” rating on Tesla stock.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

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I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’

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Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.

In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.

In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:

“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”

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This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.

The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.

The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building

Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.

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The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.

This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull

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SpaceX Starship V3 flight 12
SpaceX Starship V3 flight 12 (Credit: SpaceX)

Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.

“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”

Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12

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Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.

It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”

Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.

There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:

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“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”

SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.

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Elon Musk

Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst

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elon musk phone
Photo: Boss Hunting.com.au

For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.

Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.

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It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.

Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.

The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.

Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.

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The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.

SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.

There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.

The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.

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