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TSLA analyst thinks postponing $25k car is a potential risk to Tesla’s yearly sales growth

Credit: Andy Slye/YouTube

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Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi believes Tesla’s decision to not work on its $25,000 car now is a potential risk, specifically to its sales growth in the future. 

At the Q4 and Full Year 2021 earnings call, Elon Musk said that Tesla was not “currently” working on the $25,000 car. He noted that asking about the $25k car’s progress was the wrong question, suggesting that the question now was about autonomy. 

“Well, we’re not currently working on the–on a $25,000 car. You know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. It’s sort of the wrong question, really,” Musk said, replying to an investor question.

“Really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don’t know, a factor of four or five,” the CEO added.

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In his recent research report, Sacconaghi wrote that he believes the $25K vehicle is “highly unlikely” to reach the market before 2025 since Tesla isn’t working on developing new, lower-priced models right now. He noted that the decision “feels at odds with Tesla’s goal of driving EV adoption as quickly as possible.” 

The Bernstein analyst thinks Tesla’s unit sales will be unable to grow at 50%+ per year without the $25k car. Bernstein struggles “to see how Tesla will be able to grow at 50%+ beyond 2023, which implies 3M units in 2024 and nearly 5M in 2025.”

Tesla reported delivering 499,550 vehicles in 2020 and more than doubled its numbers in 2021 with a total of 936,172 vehicle deliveries. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental in Tesla’s delivery number growth and revenue. A recent 10-K SEC filing revealed that Tesla China increased its income by over 100% for two consecutive years. 

Compact and subcompact cars account for about 20% of the U.S. auto market. A lower-priced vehicle would expand Tesla’s market, equating to an increase in unit sales. 

However, the SUV and crossover market is steadily growing. The Tesla Model Y is rising through the ranks, similar to the Model 3. Elon Musk once said that Tesla wants to make the Model Y the best-selling vehicle in any category globally by 2022 or 2023. 

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Based on the last earnings call, Tesla is concentrating on Model Y deliveries, which entails focusing on ramping Giga Texas and Giga Berlin production. The Model Y’s from Tesla’s new gigafactories will be equipped with a structural battery pack featuring 4680 cells. Car carriers with Model Ys have already been spotted leaving Giga Texas.

In general, Tesla has a lot on its plate at the moment. Between ramping Model Y production in its new gigafactories, finalizing the Cybertruck’s design and price, and working on the Tesla Bot “Optimus” prototype, Tesla is juggling many balls. Then there is Full Self-Driving which Tesla and Elon Musk are particularly keen on developing and refining by the end of the year. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Cybertruck

Tesla set to activate long-awaited Cybertruck feature

Tesla will officially activate the Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) feature on Cybertruck soon, as the company has officially added the feature to its list of features by trim on its website.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is set to activate a long-awaited Cybertruck feature, and no matter when you bought your all-electric pickup, it has the hardware capable of achieving what it is designed to do.

Tesla simply has to flip the switch, and it plans to do so in the near future.

Tesla will officially activate the Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) feature on Cybertruck soon, according to Not a Tesla App, as the company has officially added the feature to its list of features by trim on its website.

Tesla rolls out Active Road Noise Reduction for new Model S and Model X

The ANC feature suddenly appeared on the spec sheet for the Premium All-Wheel-Drive and Cyberbeast trims, which are the two configurations that have been delivered since November 2023.

However, those trims have both had the ANC disabled, and although they are found in the Model S and Model X, and are active in those vehicles, Tesla is planning to activate them.

In Tesla’s Service Toolbox, it wrote:

ANC software is not enabled on Cybertruck even though the hardware is installed.”

Tesla has utilized an ANC system in the Model S and Model X since 2021. The system uses microphones embedded in the front seat headrests to detect low-frequency road noise entering the cabin. It then generates anti-noise through phase-inverted sound waves to cancel out or reduce that noise, creating quieter zones, particularly around the vehicle’s front occupants.

The Model S and Model X utilize six microphones to achieve this noise cancellation, while the Cybertruck has just four.

Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD estimated delivery slips to early fall 2026

As previously mentioned, this will be activated through a software update, as the hardware is already available within Cybertruck and can simply be activated at Tesla’s leisure.

The delays in activating the system are likely due to Tesla Cybertruck’s unique design, which is unlike anything before. In the Model S and Model X, Tesla did not have to do too much, but the Cybertruck has heavier all-terrain tires and potentially issues from the aluminum castings that make up the vehicle’s chassis, which are probably presenting some challenges.

Unfortunately, this feature will not be available on the new Dual Motor All-Wheel-Drive configuration, which was released last week.

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Tesla Model S and X customization options begin to thin as their closure nears

Tesla’s Online Design Studio for both vehicles now shows the first color option to be listed as “Sold Out,” as Lunar Silver is officially no longer available for the Model S or Model X. This color is exclusive to these cars and not available on the Model S or Model X.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Model S and Model X customization options are beginning to thin for the first time as the closure of the two “sentimental” vehicles nears.

We are officially seeing the first options disappear as Tesla begins to work toward ending production of the two cars and the options that are available to those vehicles specifically.

Tesla’s Online Design Studio for both vehicles now shows the first color option to be listed as “Sold Out,” as Lunar Silver is officially no longer available for the Model S or Model X. This color is exclusive to these cars and not available on the Model S or Model X.

Tesla is making way for the Optimus humanoid robot project at the Fremont Factory, where the Model S and Model X are produced. The two cars are low-volume models and do not contribute more than a few percent to Tesla’s yearly delivery figures.

With CEO Elon Musk confirming that the Model S and Model X would officially be phased out at the end of the quarter, some of the options are being thinned out.

This is an expected move considering Tesla’s plans for the two vehicles, as it will make for an easier process of transitioning that portion of the Fremont plant to cater to Optimus manufacturing. Additionally, this is likely one of the least popular colors, and Tesla is choosing to only keep around what it is seeing routine demand for.

During the Q4 Earnings Call in January, Musk confirmed the end of the Model S and Model X:

“It is time to bring the Model S and Model X programs to an end with an honorable discharge. It is time to bring the S/X programs to an end. It’s part of our overall shift to an autonomous future.”

Fremont will now build one million Optimus units per year as production is ramped.

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Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD estimated delivery slips to early fall 2026

Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla’s estimated delivery window for new Cybertruck Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive (AWD) orders in the United States has shifted to September–October 2026. This suggests that the vehicle’s sub-$60,000 variant is now effectively sold out until then.

The updated timeline was highlighted in a post on X by Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt, who noted that the estimated delivery window had moved from June 2026 to September-October 2026, “presumably due to strong demand.”

The Dual Motor AWD currently starts at $59,990 before incentives. Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.

If demand remains steady, the combination of a later delivery window and a pending price increase suggests Tesla is seeing sustained interest in the newly-introduced Cybertruck configuration. This was highlighted by Elon Musk on X, when he noted that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD’s introductory price will only be available for a limited time.

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When the Cybertruck was first unveiled in November 2019, Tesla listed the Dual Motor AWD variant at $49,990. Adjusted for inflation, that figure equates to roughly $63,000 in 2026 dollars, based on cumulative U.S. inflation since 2019.

That context makes a potential post-February price in the $64,000 to $65,000 range less surprising, especially as material, labor, and manufacturing costs have shifted significantly over the past several years.

While Tesla has not announced a specific new MSRP, the updated delivery timeline and pricing note together suggest that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD could very well be the variant that takes the all-electric full-sized pickup truck to more widespread adoption.

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