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TSLA analyst thinks postponing $25k car is a potential risk to Tesla’s yearly sales growth
Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi believes Tesla’s decision to not work on its $25,000 car now is a potential risk, specifically to its sales growth in the future.
At the Q4 and Full Year 2021 earnings call, Elon Musk said that Tesla was not “currently” working on the $25,000 car. He noted that asking about the $25k car’s progress was the wrong question, suggesting that the question now was about autonomy.
“Well, we’re not currently working on the–on a $25,000 car. You know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. It’s sort of the wrong question, really,” Musk said, replying to an investor question.
“Really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don’t know, a factor of four or five,” the CEO added.
In his recent research report, Sacconaghi wrote that he believes the $25K vehicle is “highly unlikely” to reach the market before 2025 since Tesla isn’t working on developing new, lower-priced models right now. He noted that the decision “feels at odds with Tesla’s goal of driving EV adoption as quickly as possible.”
The Bernstein analyst thinks Tesla’s unit sales will be unable to grow at 50%+ per year without the $25k car. Bernstein struggles “to see how Tesla will be able to grow at 50%+ beyond 2023, which implies 3M units in 2024 and nearly 5M in 2025.”
Tesla reported delivering 499,550 vehicles in 2020 and more than doubled its numbers in 2021 with a total of 936,172 vehicle deliveries. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental in Tesla’s delivery number growth and revenue. A recent 10-K SEC filing revealed that Tesla China increased its income by over 100% for two consecutive years.
Compact and subcompact cars account for about 20% of the U.S. auto market. A lower-priced vehicle would expand Tesla’s market, equating to an increase in unit sales.
However, the SUV and crossover market is steadily growing. The Tesla Model Y is rising through the ranks, similar to the Model 3. Elon Musk once said that Tesla wants to make the Model Y the best-selling vehicle in any category globally by 2022 or 2023.
Based on the last earnings call, Tesla is concentrating on Model Y deliveries, which entails focusing on ramping Giga Texas and Giga Berlin production. The Model Y’s from Tesla’s new gigafactories will be equipped with a structural battery pack featuring 4680 cells. Car carriers with Model Ys have already been spotted leaving Giga Texas.
In general, Tesla has a lot on its plate at the moment. Between ramping Model Y production in its new gigafactories, finalizing the Cybertruck’s design and price, and working on the Tesla Bot “Optimus” prototype, Tesla is juggling many balls. Then there is Full Self-Driving which Tesla and Elon Musk are particularly keen on developing and refining by the end of the year.
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Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi safety monitor removal in Austin: here’s when
Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Tuesday at the xAI Hackathon that the company would be removing Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin in just three weeks.
This would meet Musk’s timeline from earlier this year, as he has said on several occasions that Tesla Robotaxis would have no supervision in Austin by the end of 2025.
On Tuesday, Musk said:
“Unsupervised is pretty much solved at this point. So there will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them. Not even anyone in the passenger seat in about three weeks.”
Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.
In September, he said:
“Should be no safety driver by end of year.”
The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe.
Should be no safety driver by end of year.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 4, 2025
On the Q3 Earnings Call in October, he said:
“We are expecting ot have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
Finally, in November, he reiterated the timeline in a public statement at the Shareholder Meeting:
“I expect Robotaxis to operate without safety drivers in large parts of Austin this year.”
Currently, Tesla uses Safety Monitors in Austin in the passenger’s seat on local roads. They will sit in the driver’s seat for highway routes. In the Bay Area ride-hailing operation, there is always a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat.
Three weeks would deliver on the end-of-year promise, cutting it close, beating it by just two days. However, it would be a tremendous leap forward in the Robotaxi program, and would shut the mouths of many skeptics who state the current iteration is no different than having an Uber.
Tesla has also expanded its Robotaxi fleet this year, but the company has not given exact figures. Once it expands its fleet, even more progress will be made in Tesla’s self-driving efforts.
News
SpaceX reportedly mulling IPO, eyeing largest of all time: report
“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock,” Musk said.
SpaceX is reportedly mulling an initial public offering, eyeing what would be the largest valuation at the time of availability of all time, a new report from Bloomberg said on Tuesday.
It is one of many reports involving one of Elon Musk’s companies and a massive market move, as this is not the first time we have seen reports of an IPO by SpaceX. Musk himself has also dispelled other reports in the past of a similar nature, including an xAI funding round.
SpaceX and Musk have yet to comment on the report. In the past, untrue reports were promptly replied to by the CEO; this has not yet gained any response, which is a good sign in terms of credibility.
However, he said just a few days ago that stories of this nature are inaccurate:
“There has been a lot of press claiming SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate. SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors. Valuation increments are a function of progress with Starship and Starlink and securing global direct-to-cell spectrum that greatly increases our addressable market. And one other thing that is arguably most significant by far.”
There has been a lot of press claiming @SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate.
SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors.
Valuation increments are a…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 6, 2025
Musk has discussed a potential IPO for SpaceX in recent months, as the November 6 shareholder meeting, as he commented on the “downsides” of having a public company, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
Nevertheless, Musk has also said he wants there to be a way for Tesla shareholders to get in on the action. At the meeting in early November, he said:
“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock.”
Additionally, he added:
“Maybe at some point., SpaceX should become a public company despite all the downsides of being public.”
Musk has been historically reluctant to take SpaceX public, at times stating it could become a barrier to colonizing Mars. That does not mean it will not happen.
Bloomberg’s report cites multiple unidentified sources who are familiar with the matter. They indicate to the publication that SpaceX wants to go public in mid-to-late 2026, and it wants to raise $30 billion at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion.
This is not the first time SpaceX has discussed an IPO; we reported on it nine years ago. We hope it is true, as the community has spoken for a long time about having access to SpaceX stock. Legendary investor Ron Baron is one of the lucky few to be a SpaceX investor, and said it, along with Tesla, is a “lifetime investment.”
Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA
The primary driver of SpaceX’s value is Starlink, the company’s satellite internet service. Starlink contributes 60-70 percent of SpaceX’s revenue, meaning it is the primary value engine. Launch services, like Falcon 9 contracts, and the development of Starship, also play supporting roles.
SpaceX reached an incredible milestone with its Starlink program with a launch last night, as the 3,000th satellite of the year was launched into low Earth orbit.
On Monday, SpaceX also achieved its 32nd flight with a single Falcon 9 rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center.
The mission was Starlink 6-92, and it utilized the Falcon 9 B1067 for the 32nd time this year, the most-used Falcon booster. The flight delivered SpaceX’s 3000th Starlink satellite of the year, a massive achievement.
There were 29 Starlink satellites launched and deployed into LEO during this particular mission:
Falcon 9 launches 29 @Starlink satellites from Florida pic.twitter.com/utKrXjHzPN
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) December 9, 2025
SpaceX has a current goal of certifying its Falcon boosters for 40 missions apiece, according to Spaceflight Now.
The flight was the 350th orbital launch from the nearby SLC-40, and the 3,000 satellites that have been successfully launched this year continue to contribute to the company’s goal of having 12,000 satellites contributing to global internet coverage.
There are over five million users of Starlink, the latest data shows.
Following the launch and stage separation, the Falcon 9 booster completed its mission with a perfect landing on the ‘Just Read the Instructions’ droneship.
The mission was the 575th overall Falcon 9 launch, highlighting SpaceX’s operational tempo, which continues to be accelerated. The company averages two missions per week, and underscores CEO Elon Musk’s vision of a multi-planetary future, where reliable connectivity is crucial for remote work, education, and emergency response.
As Starlink expands and works toward that elusive and crucial 12,000 satellite goal, missions like 6-92 pave the way for innovations in telecommunications and enable more internet access to people across the globe.
With regulatory approvals in over 100 countries and millions of current subscribers, SpaceX continues to democratize space, proving that reusability is not just feasible, but it’s also revolutionary.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi safety monitor removal in Austin: here’s when
SpaceX reportedly mulling IPO, eyeing largest of all time: report
