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TSLA analyst thinks postponing $25k car is a potential risk to Tesla’s yearly sales growth

Credit: Andy Slye/YouTube

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Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi believes Tesla’s decision to not work on its $25,000 car now is a potential risk, specifically to its sales growth in the future. 

At the Q4 and Full Year 2021 earnings call, Elon Musk said that Tesla was not “currently” working on the $25,000 car. He noted that asking about the $25k car’s progress was the wrong question, suggesting that the question now was about autonomy. 

“Well, we’re not currently working on the–on a $25,000 car. You know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. It’s sort of the wrong question, really,” Musk said, replying to an investor question.

“Really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don’t know, a factor of four or five,” the CEO added.

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In his recent research report, Sacconaghi wrote that he believes the $25K vehicle is “highly unlikely” to reach the market before 2025 since Tesla isn’t working on developing new, lower-priced models right now. He noted that the decision “feels at odds with Tesla’s goal of driving EV adoption as quickly as possible.” 

The Bernstein analyst thinks Tesla’s unit sales will be unable to grow at 50%+ per year without the $25k car. Bernstein struggles “to see how Tesla will be able to grow at 50%+ beyond 2023, which implies 3M units in 2024 and nearly 5M in 2025.”

Tesla reported delivering 499,550 vehicles in 2020 and more than doubled its numbers in 2021 with a total of 936,172 vehicle deliveries. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental in Tesla’s delivery number growth and revenue. A recent 10-K SEC filing revealed that Tesla China increased its income by over 100% for two consecutive years. 

Compact and subcompact cars account for about 20% of the U.S. auto market. A lower-priced vehicle would expand Tesla’s market, equating to an increase in unit sales. 

However, the SUV and crossover market is steadily growing. The Tesla Model Y is rising through the ranks, similar to the Model 3. Elon Musk once said that Tesla wants to make the Model Y the best-selling vehicle in any category globally by 2022 or 2023. 

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Based on the last earnings call, Tesla is concentrating on Model Y deliveries, which entails focusing on ramping Giga Texas and Giga Berlin production. The Model Y’s from Tesla’s new gigafactories will be equipped with a structural battery pack featuring 4680 cells. Car carriers with Model Ys have already been spotted leaving Giga Texas.

In general, Tesla has a lot on its plate at the moment. Between ramping Model Y production in its new gigafactories, finalizing the Cybertruck’s design and price, and working on the Tesla Bot “Optimus” prototype, Tesla is juggling many balls. Then there is Full Self-Driving which Tesla and Elon Musk are particularly keen on developing and refining by the end of the year. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla tops American-Made Index for sixth-consecutive year

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is atop the American-Made Index from Cars.com for the sixth-straight year, as the Model 3 and Model Y took the top two spots, respectively.

Last year, the Model 3, Model Y, Model S, and Model X took the top four spots, respectively. The company has routinely performed well in the Index. However, Tesla discontinued its flagship Model S and Model X earlier this year, which took the two cars out of the ranking.

Cybertruck is not considered due to its curb weight being above the 8,500-pound threshold, which eliminates it from being required to have more detailed assembly information.

Cars.com uses five main categories to develop its rankings:

  • Location(s) of final assembly
  • Percentage of U.S. and Canadian parts
  • Countries of origin for all available engines
  • Countries of origin for all available transmissions
  • U.S. manufacturing workforce

These five major factors are then put into a 100-point scale. The vehicles with the highest scores sit atop the list. The Model 3 edged out the Model Y.

Tesla uses a strong domestic strategy to build its cars and parts domestically. It relies on intense vertical integration that reduces its dependence on global suppliers, keeping more value and jobs in the United States.

This strategy has helped Tesla gain a strong reputation for domestically produced vehicles and parts. However, it helps it with more than just awards like this one. Keeping a supply chain local has also helped insulate Tesla more than others from tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

This year’s American-Made Index from Cars.com studied nearly 400 vehicles from the 2026 model year. Tesla was the only manufacturer to have an EV inside the Top 10. The Kia EV9 was the next EV to make the list, scoring the 17th position.

The Hyundai IONIQ 5 was 21st, and the final EV to make the list was the Cadillac LYRIQ in 77th.

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Elon Musk

Tesla finally clarifies fatal Texas crash, confirms driver manually overrode acceleration

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Credit: CNBC

Tesla has finally clarified the situation regarding the viral crash in Texas where a Model 3 slammed into a home.

CEO Elon Musk replied to reports on Monday that stated the crash was due to the company’s Full Self-Driving or Autopilot suite, which seemed unlikely to those who are familiar with it. Video showed the car slamming into a house at an excessive rate of speed, making it highly unlikely the crash was due to the suite’s operation, as it does not travel at those speeds in residential areas.

Musk said:

“This makes no sense. FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets, and this was a high-speed crash!”

Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, added context, revealing that the company’s data shows the driver “manually overrode self-driving by pressing the accelerator all the way to 100%.”

He revealed the speed reached by the car was 73 MPH, and the accelerator was still pressed “even after the crash.”

Authorities are reportedly investigating “whether Tesla’s Autopilot system played a role after a Model 3 left the roadway…slammed through a brick house at high speed and fatally struck Matha Avila as she sat inside,” the New York Post reported.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is now investigating the crash. Tesla will work with the agency to provide them with whatever information they need in order to clarify the cause of the crash.

Similarly, Tesla had claims of a fatal accident in Harris County, Texas, a few years ago. Early reports indicated that Full Self-Driving was the cause of the crash. After the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) worked with Tesla, the agency proved there was “no use of the Autopilot system at any time during this ownership period of the vehicle, including the time frame up to the last transmitted timestamp on April 17, 2021.”

Tesla alleged “driverless” crash in Texas: What is known so far

“Application of the accelerator pedal was found to be as high as 98.8 percent,” the NTSB said in their findings. The highest recorded speed in the five seconds leading up to the impact was 67 miles per hour. The area where the crash occurred is residential, and Texas State laws have default speed limits of 30 MPH in residential streets.

This appears to be a similar situation. However, an investigation will prove what happened for sure.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX makes $20 billion move to optimize its balance sheet

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX announced today that it commenced its first-ever public bond offering, marking a significant step in the newly public company’s capital markets strategy.

The company announced an offering of senior unsecured notes expected to raise at least $20 billion.

The move comes just a short time after SpaceX completed one of the largest initial public offerings in history. In mid-June, the company priced shares at $135 and raised more than $85 billion, propelling founder Elon Musk’s net worth past the trillion-dollar mark and giving the firm substantial liquidity.

According to the company’s SEC filing, the net proceeds from the notes will be used primarily to repay in full the outstanding borrowings under its existing bridge loan facility, cover related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes. The offering is being conducted under Rule 144A, as well as Regulation S, targeting qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. Notes will be unsecured obligations ranking equally with other unsubordinated debt.

The $20 billion bridge loan was used to refinance approximately $17.5 billion in higher-cost “junk” debt tied to X and xAI. SpaceX had merged with xAI in February 2026 in an all-stock deal. The bridge facility, which matures in September 2027, had represented the bulk of SpaceX’s long-term debt.

SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise

In connection with the bond launch, SpaceX disclosed it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. Investor calls began on the announcement date, with pricing and launch expected shortly thereafter. Rating agencies have assigned investment-grade ratings to the proposed bonds, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s dominant position in commercial launches and the growth trajectory of its Starlink internet offering.

The debt raise also allows SpaceX to optimize its balance sheet by replacing short-term, higher-cost bridge financing with longer-date, lower-cost fixed-income securities. This provides greater financial flexibility to support capital-intensive initiatives, including the development of Starship, the expansion of the Starlink constellation, and the integration of AI capabilities following the xAI combination.

SpaceX shares (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell sharply on the news, dropping over 16 percent overall on the market on Monday. The stock had surged initially after debuting but pulled back amid profit-taking and broader market dynamics.

Overall, the bond offering underscores SpaceX’s transition to a mature public company with access to diverse funding sources. It positions the firm to pursue its long-term vision of multiplanetary expansion and AI infrastructure, while maintaining a disciplined approach to its capital structure in a high-growth but capital-heavy industry.

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