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TSLA analyst thinks postponing $25k car is a potential risk to Tesla’s yearly sales growth
Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi believes Tesla’s decision to not work on its $25,000 car now is a potential risk, specifically to its sales growth in the future.
At the Q4 and Full Year 2021 earnings call, Elon Musk said that Tesla was not “currently” working on the $25,000 car. He noted that asking about the $25k car’s progress was the wrong question, suggesting that the question now was about autonomy.
“Well, we’re not currently working on the–on a $25,000 car. You know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. It’s sort of the wrong question, really,” Musk said, replying to an investor question.
“Really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don’t know, a factor of four or five,” the CEO added.
In his recent research report, Sacconaghi wrote that he believes the $25K vehicle is “highly unlikely” to reach the market before 2025 since Tesla isn’t working on developing new, lower-priced models right now. He noted that the decision “feels at odds with Tesla’s goal of driving EV adoption as quickly as possible.”
The Bernstein analyst thinks Tesla’s unit sales will be unable to grow at 50%+ per year without the $25k car. Bernstein struggles “to see how Tesla will be able to grow at 50%+ beyond 2023, which implies 3M units in 2024 and nearly 5M in 2025.”
Tesla reported delivering 499,550 vehicles in 2020 and more than doubled its numbers in 2021 with a total of 936,172 vehicle deliveries. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental in Tesla’s delivery number growth and revenue. A recent 10-K SEC filing revealed that Tesla China increased its income by over 100% for two consecutive years.
Compact and subcompact cars account for about 20% of the U.S. auto market. A lower-priced vehicle would expand Tesla’s market, equating to an increase in unit sales.
However, the SUV and crossover market is steadily growing. The Tesla Model Y is rising through the ranks, similar to the Model 3. Elon Musk once said that Tesla wants to make the Model Y the best-selling vehicle in any category globally by 2022 or 2023.
Based on the last earnings call, Tesla is concentrating on Model Y deliveries, which entails focusing on ramping Giga Texas and Giga Berlin production. The Model Y’s from Tesla’s new gigafactories will be equipped with a structural battery pack featuring 4680 cells. Car carriers with Model Ys have already been spotted leaving Giga Texas.
In general, Tesla has a lot on its plate at the moment. Between ramping Model Y production in its new gigafactories, finalizing the Cybertruck’s design and price, and working on the Tesla Bot “Optimus” prototype, Tesla is juggling many balls. Then there is Full Self-Driving which Tesla and Elon Musk are particularly keen on developing and refining by the end of the year.
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Tesla Cybercab, the all-electric ride-hailing-geared vehicle void of a steering wheel and pedals, has achieved a significant regulatory milestone. The vehicle has officially secured an EPA Certificate of Conformity for the 2026 Cybercab, classifying it as a battery electric Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV).
This certification confirms full compliance with federal Clean Air Act emission standards, paving the way for legal sales and operation across the United States.
A Certificate of Conformity (CoC) is a critical document issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to vehicle manufacturers. It certifies that a specific class of vehicles meets all applicable federal emission requirements for the model year.
We have reported on several of them in the past, and it’s a good sign that a vehicle is close to being available to the public.
Every vehicle sold in the U.S. must carry this approval, which covers exhaust emissions, evaporative emissions, and refueling standards. For battery electric vehicles like the Cybercab, it verifies zero tailpipe emissions and compliance with stringent testing protocols. The certificate, issued and effective May 26, 2026, was part of the EPA’s recent bi-weekly upload, detailing the Cybercab’s evaporative/refueling family and exhaust compliance.
It also revealed some other very important information, as the Cybercab’s “Charge Depleting Range” was rated at just over 418 miles. This was for city driving, while the highway range depletion test revealed just over 375 miles of range:
Highway miles for Charge Depleting Range was just over 375 miles
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 15, 2026
This EPA approval is a foundational step for Tesla’s autonomous ambitions. While emission certification is standard for any new EV, it signals that the Cybercab is progressing through the full federal compliance process.
Tesla has already equipped prototypes with federal compliance stickers affirming adherence to safety, bumper, and theft-prevention standards via self-certification under FMVSS rules. This bypasses the traditional 2,500-vehicle exemption cap that previously constrained low-volume autonomous testing.
Production of the Cybercab ramped up at Giga Texas starting in early 2026, with volume targets aiming for hundreds of units per week and long-term ambitions of millions annually. The two-seater, steer-by-wire vehicle, lacking a steering wheel and pedals, features a sleek, minimalist design optimized for Robotaxi service.
Priced under $30,000 at unveiling, it promises operating costs as low as $0.20–$0.40 per mile once scaled. Tesla has routinely flexed it as one of the most efficient vehicles of all time.
Regulatory progress extends beyond the EPA. The NHTSA has streamlined approvals for control-free vehicles, benefiting the Cybercab. Tesla operates supervised and unsupervised Robotaxi services in Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston using its fleet. California recently updated rules for driverless operations, including enforcement mechanisms for violations. Additional state-by-state approvals will be needed for nationwide rollout.
This EPA green light reduces a key barrier, building confidence among regulators, partners, and investors.
It underscores Tesla’s strategy of designing the Cybercab from the ground up for full compliance rather than retrofitting existing platforms. Challenges remain in scaling unsupervised autonomy, mapping approvals, and public acceptance, but the certification marks tangible momentum toward transforming urban mobility.
With prototypes already testing on public roads and production accelerating, the Cybercab edges closer to redefining transportation. Tesla’s integrated approach—combining hardware simplicity, software prowess, and regulatory diligence—positions it uniquely in the robotaxi race.
SpaceX executed its first Falcon 9 launch since going public on June 15, a routine yet symbolically powerful Starlink mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
Liftoff of the Falcon 9 booster B1093, on its 14th flight, occurred at approximately 8:34 a.m. PDT from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E), deploying 24 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites into low-Earth orbit.
The first stage successfully landed on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You” in the Pacific Ocean, underscoring the company’s unmatched reusability track record.
Watch Falcon 9 launch 24 @Starlink satellites to orbit from California https://t.co/meDwb05qOE
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) June 15, 2026
This mission comes just three days after SpaceX’s historic IPO on June 12, which shattered records as the largest ever. The company raised $75 billion by pricing shares at $135, with trading under ticker SPCX on Nasdaq opening at $150 and closing at $160.95—a 19 percent gain—valuing SpaceX at over $2.1 trillion.
The launch highlights the seamless transition from private innovator to public powerhouse. SpaceX, founded in 2002, has revolutionized access to space with over 650 Falcon 9 flights and a massive Starlink constellation now serving millions globally.
As a public company, it faces new pressures: quarterly earnings, shareholder scrutiny, and expectations to accelerate Starship development for Mars ambitions and deeper NASA partnerships. Yet the market response signals strong confidence in its dominance, as launch costs are slashed by 95 percent, rapid satellite deployment, and a backlog of government and commercial contracts.
SpaceX maintains bold advertising push for Starlink, contrasting Tesla’s minimalistic approach
Analysts view today’s flight as business as usual, but it carries extra weight. With shares volatile in early trading days, successful operations reassure investors that core capabilities remain unaffected by public status.
SpaceX now operates under heightened transparency, potentially unlocking capital for ambitious goals like Starship orbital tests and global broadband expansion.
Challenges loom, including regulatory hurdles for megaconstellations, competition in reusable rockets, and orbital debris concerns. Nevertheless, this morning’s flawless execution reinforces SpaceX’s trajectory.
As Musk often notes, the company’s mission—to make humanity multiplanetary—now aligns with Wall Street’s growth demands. The stars, it seems, are aligning for both.
Renowned investor Ron Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital, has once again demonstrated his unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s ventures.
Just after SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, Baron announced he purchased an additional $1 billion in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares. This move pushes Baron Capital’s total holdings in the company to a staggering $25 billion in market value, underscoring one of the most successful private-to-public investment stories in recent history.
Baron’s relationship with SpaceX dates back to 2017, when his firm began investing approximately $1.75–2 billion through secondary markets and employee tender offers at valuations around $20–22 billion.
By the time of the IPO, which valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion with shares closing near $161, those early stakes had generated more than $13 billion in unrealized gains. Post-IPO, Baron’s position ballooned further, reflecting the company’s meteoric rise driven by reusable rocketry, Starlink’s global satellite internet constellation, Starshield defense applications, and ambitious plans for orbital infrastructure.
In a recent interview, Baron articulated his bullish outlook with characteristic enthusiasm.
Ron Baron said today that he bought $1 billion of @SpaceX IPO shares last Friday, and said that all of Baron Capital’s $SPCX holdings are now worth $25 billion.
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars; If you read the prospectus, you realize what they… pic.twitter.com/U8F471KtJS
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 15, 2026
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” he stated, emphasizing that SpaceX’s achievements in rocketry and satellite technology are “not possible for anyone else to accomplish.” He envisions the company as a cornerstone of humanity’s multi-planetary future, potentially reaching valuations of $10–30 trillion within 10–15 years.
Baron has repeatedly affirmed he has no plans to sell, viewing SpaceX as a “lifetime investment” alongside Tesla.
Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA
This conviction stems from SpaceX’s unparalleled execution. The company has revolutionized access to space with Falcon 9 reusability, deployed thousands of Starlink satellites, and is advancing Starship for Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport.
Baron highlights emerging opportunities like space-based AI data centers and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, positioning SpaceX at the forefront of a new space economy projected to generate trillions in value.
Critics may question the lofty projections amid high valuations and execution risks, but Baron’s track record speaks volumes. His Tesla holdings, initiated in the mid-2010s, have also delivered outsized returns. As one of the largest institutional holders of SpaceX pre-IPO, Baron Capital’s funds, such as Baron Partners, benefited immensely from valuation markups.
Baron’s $1 billion IPO purchase signals deep confidence in SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. In an era of short-term market noise, his strategy exemplifies patient capital: backing visionary leadership and transformative technology.
For investors watching the space sector, it serves as a powerful endorsement that the final frontier may indeed yield the next great wealth-creation engine. As Baron puts it, SpaceX isn’t just building rockets—it’s trying to “save humanity” by expanding our horizons beyond Earth.
Tesla Cybercab snags huge regulatory green light that readies it for public roads
SpaceX soars with its first launch as a public company, marking a new era
