Investor's Corner

RBC expects Tesla to post record 195k deliveries for Q2, says 200k Street consensus is too high

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RBC Capital Markets has issued a quick update on its estimates for Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter results. According to the firm, Tesla would likely deliver 195k vehicles this Q2, which is impressive but lower than the Street’s current consensus. RBC also highlighted the growing importance of China to Tesla’s numbers, as well as some factors that may prove challenging for the company. 

The global investment bank noted that based on checks and regionally reported data, Tesla’s Q2 deliveries would likely stand at 195k in total. That’s a 115% year-over-year increase, and it is partly driven by the fact that Q2 2020 was hit hard by the pandemic. Gigafactory Shanghai’s Model 3 production was only just starting then. 

“Our new 2Q21 est. is above our prior 177k we penciled in post 1Q21 earnings… By model, we forecast 193.6k Model 3/Y and only 1.5k model S/X (Plaid deliveries delayed). TSLA typically reports within 2-3 days of qtr-end (we’d pencil in 7/2 as likely date)… Eyes will be on Tesla’s prod too which we believe will fall below 2Q21 deliveries owning to global semi shortage, so Tesla likely drew down on some inventory this qtr,” RBC noted

RBC pointed out that while it has not received “company collected” consensus on Tesla’s second-quarter delivery estimates, Visible Alpha consensus currently calls for 199.8k vehicle deliveries. Factset consensus, on the other hand, currently calls for 198.3k deliveries, which also seems very optimistic. Some TSLA bulls are estimating over 200k total vehicle deliveries, while some buyside estimates for Tesla stand as low as 175k for Q2 2021. 

After Tesla posts its Q2 2021 vehicle delivery and production report, RBC expects the focus to shift to earnings. RBC, however, also shared some caution surrounding Tesla’s image in China. “We also believe there will be cont’d investor focus on pace of China demand. Our view is demand improved sequentially during quarter, but recent recall of ~300k M3/Y for assisted driving (can be fixed via OTA) could negatively impact perception,” RBC wrote. 

Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.

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RBC expects Tesla to post record 195k deliveries for Q2, says 200k Street consensus is too high
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