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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2019 earnings and return to profitability: Here’s Wall Street’s reaction

Tesla Model 3 production line in Gigafactory 3, Shanghai, China. (Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) spiked as high as 20% on the heels of its Q3 2019 earnings release, with the company posting a GAAP net profit of $143 million and a non-GAAP profit of $342 million, as well as earnings per share of $1.91. The results pretty much blew away Wall Street’s expectations, particularly as analysts expected Tesla to post a loss for the third quarter. 

Following its blockbuster earnings report and an equally encouraging Q&A session that saw Tesla executives confirm an earlier Model Y production date, Gigafactory 3’s battery facility, and Solar Roof V3 (among others), Wall Street has issued its take on TSLA and its Q3 earnings. Here is a compilation of what Wall Street has to say about Tesla’s Q3 2019 results. 

The Bulls

Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who holds an “Outperform” rating and a $355 price target on TSLA stock, stated that Gigafactory 3’s activation in Shanghai could be a true difference-maker. “Tesla did lower 2019 volume guidance, though paradoxically we think this will drive estimates higher as investors are better able to bridge to fourth-quarter deliveries. We think ramping volumes (especially in Shanghai) and product development will provide a steady cadence of catalysts over the next 6-12 months and expect shares to trade higher,” he noted.

Piper Jaffray’s Alexander Potter, who holds an “Overweight” rating on the electric car maker, stated that “it’s getting harder to poke holes in the TSLA thesis.” Potter mentioned that while skeptics had legitimate concerns in the past, Tesla has reached a point where it is building cash, gaining traction in the market, and boosting its margins. “Even considering all the EV-related fanfare from competitors, it’s hard to see how other auto companies can catch up with Tesla — at least in the next 3+ years,” he stated. 

The Neutral

Daniel Ives of Wedbush, who maintains a “Neutral” rating and a $220 price target on Tesla stock, described Q3 2019 as a “Picasso-like quarter,” though he maintained that concerns remain about the sustainability of demand for the company’s vehicles and products. “Is demand and this level of profitability sustainable? That will be the key question for the Street this morning as the bull/bear debate will view this quarter as Musk and Fremont pulling an eye-popping quarter out of the hat with worries that the lack of investments and tighter expense model is not sustainable going forward,” he noted. 

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Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin, who has a “Neutral” rating on TSLA stock and an adjusted price target of $249 from $224 per share, described the company’s third-quarter results as “robust,” though he also stated that he remains cautious, partly due to profit sustainability concerns. “(Tesla’s) volatile quarterly EPS progression should have investors closely scrutinizing sustainable profit levels, and credible growth rates in an increasingly competitive environment,” Irwin stated. 

The Bears

Arndt Ellinghorst of Evercore ISI, who has an “Underperform” rating and a price target of $200 per share on Tesla stock, admitted that Q3 2019 was an outstanding quarter for the electric car maker. Nevertheless, the analyst stated that he remains concerned about momentum and profitability in 2020. “While we remain concerned on 2020 momentum/profitability, we acknowledge this was an outstanding quarter relative to expectations, despite headwinds of lower average selling price and facility tooling which we expect to increase as we approach Model Y launch next year,” he wrote. 

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, who also has an “Underweight” rating and a $220 price target, stated that he remains “unsure that this is really the breakout quarter that is likely to be claimed by the bulls.” Tesla’s gross margin of 20.8% for the third quarter beat JPMorgan’s estimates of 18.7%, though Brinkman argued that he is not certain about the “quality” of this beat. 

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +15.55% at $294.29 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

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Elon Musk

‘You chose ambition’: Tesla Chair hails shareholders for backing Elon Musk’s vision

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm has issued a letter to shareholders celebrating what she described as “overwhelming support” at this year’s Annual Meeting, framing the approval of Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar pay plan as a defining moment in Tesla’s mission. 

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

Denholm hails shareholder confidence

In her letter, which was posted by the electric vehicle maker on X through Tesla’s official handle, Denholm thanked investors for backing Proposals One, Three, and Four, items she said reaffirm Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV” and its broader mission to accelerate sustainable prosperity. She characterized the shareholder vote as “a vote of confidence in our visionary leader, Elon,” crediting Musk with transforming Tesla into one of the most valuable companies in history.

“In a year when many tried to sow doubt and negativity, you chose a better future,” Denholm wrote. “You chose ambition. You chose to see what is possible. You chose to back the people who have been in the room since the earliest days, fighting for the mission that first brought us all together—a better world for humanity,” she wrote in her letter. 

Her comments framed Musk’s pay package approval not only as a governance milestone but as a symbolic endorsement of Tesla’s long-term trajectory across autonomy, AI, and energy innovation.

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“A whole new book” of innovation

Denholm highlighted Tesla’s push toward autonomy as the company’s next major growth phase, citing the Robotaxi program and Optimus humanoid robot as examples of bringing artificial intelligence “into the physical world.” She described this period as potentially “the largest value-creation event in Tesla’s history, and quite possibly in the history of humanity.”

The letter reaffirmed the board’s commitment to direct engagement with shareholders through Tesla’s online platform and live events. Denholm emphasized that feedback from investors “informs our strategy and strengthens us” as Tesla prepares for new technology rollouts and expanded AI capabilities.

“You, our shareholders, have given us the mandate and the runway to execute. We are humbled, and rest assured that we do not take that responsibility lightly… Thank you for believing in Tesla. Thank you for standing with us. We look forward to years of bold leadership and pioneering innovation, fueled by our commitment to creating a better future for all,” she wrote.

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Elon Musk

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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