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Tesla Q3 deliveries: analysts react to delivery miss and 1.8 million unit forecast

Credit: Angela Williamson/LinkedIn

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) released its Q3 2023 delivery figures today, showing it delivered 435,039 units while producing 430,488. Analysts are reacting to the miss as Wall Street recently cut their predictions of what Tesla would report due to planned production stoppages as plants were shut down throughout the quarter to make way for plant upgrades.

Wall Street consensus estimates slated the delivery numbers at around 455,000 units. Tesla posted numbers that represented a 7 percent reduction from Q2 but a 27 percent growth compared to Q3 2022.

Tesla (TSLA) releases Q3 2023 delivery and production results: 435k delivered and 430k produced

Despite the miss by 20,000 units, Tesla stated in its press release announcing the delivery figures that it would maintain its 1.8 million-unit delivery goal for the full year, which is a key indication that the automaker is prepared for a sizeable push that will help it attain the largest single quarter in terms of deliveries in company history.

Currently, Tesla has 1,324,074 cars delivered for the year, already surpassing its delivery count for 2022. Tesla needs just under 500,000 cars delivered during the final quarter of 2023 to meet its delivery goal, and if upgraded lines, along with new Model 3 Highland deliveries in Europe and Asia and initial Cybertruck deliveries, all go according to plan, a substantial increase in delivery volume could be possible.

However, analysts are giving their two cents on what happened with Tesla’s Q3 numbers, and while they were lackluster due to the line upgrades.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put a note out to investors this morning stating that, while the delivery miss is definitely disappointing, there is a light at the end of the tunnel:

“This morning, Tesla announced its 3Q delivery numbers, which came in below the Street’s targets with the longer than expected downtimes of factories in Shanghai and Austin causing likely ~20k units to shift into 4Q based on our estimates. Even when factoring in the shutdowns with no rose-colored glasses, Tesla clearly missed Street estimates this quarter with bulls left disappointed, although we see better days ahead for 4Q and 2024.”

Ives believes that Tesla still has room to hit its stride and ramp production and deliveries through a series of new demand triggers, which include Cybertruck and Model 3 Highland.

“…we believe Tesla is now set to be entering the next stage of growth for the company globally with the Model 3 refresh front and center in China and Cybertruck production set to kick off beginning around Halloween. Tesla remains committed to the 1.8 million deliveries for the year, with a strong 4Q needed to hit this number. The company will report its 3Q earnings on October 18th after the bell.”

Ives admits there “was nothing to write home about” with this delivery report from Tesla, but there are certainly factors leading to what could be the company’s best quarter and year in the forefront.

Ives maintains the ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla with a $350 price target.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Tesla Q3 deliveries: analysts react to delivery miss and 1.8 million unit forecast
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