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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries: analysts react to delivery miss and 1.8 million unit forecast

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) released its Q3 2023 delivery figures today, showing it delivered 435,039 units while producing 430,488. Analysts are reacting to the miss as Wall Street recently cut their predictions of what Tesla would report due to planned production stoppages as plants were shut down throughout the quarter to make way for plant upgrades.

Wall Street consensus estimates slated the delivery numbers at around 455,000 units. Tesla posted numbers that represented a 7 percent reduction from Q2 but a 27 percent growth compared to Q3 2022.

Tesla (TSLA) releases Q3 2023 delivery and production results: 435k delivered and 430k produced

Despite the miss by 20,000 units, Tesla stated in its press release announcing the delivery figures that it would maintain its 1.8 million-unit delivery goal for the full year, which is a key indication that the automaker is prepared for a sizeable push that will help it attain the largest single quarter in terms of deliveries in company history.

Currently, Tesla has 1,324,074 cars delivered for the year, already surpassing its delivery count for 2022. Tesla needs just under 500,000 cars delivered during the final quarter of 2023 to meet its delivery goal, and if upgraded lines, along with new Model 3 Highland deliveries in Europe and Asia and initial Cybertruck deliveries, all go according to plan, a substantial increase in delivery volume could be possible.

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However, analysts are giving their two cents on what happened with Tesla’s Q3 numbers, and while they were lackluster due to the line upgrades.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put a note out to investors this morning stating that, while the delivery miss is definitely disappointing, there is a light at the end of the tunnel:

“This morning, Tesla announced its 3Q delivery numbers, which came in below the Street’s targets with the longer than expected downtimes of factories in Shanghai and Austin causing likely ~20k units to shift into 4Q based on our estimates. Even when factoring in the shutdowns with no rose-colored glasses, Tesla clearly missed Street estimates this quarter with bulls left disappointed, although we see better days ahead for 4Q and 2024.”

Ives believes that Tesla still has room to hit its stride and ramp production and deliveries through a series of new demand triggers, which include Cybertruck and Model 3 Highland.

“…we believe Tesla is now set to be entering the next stage of growth for the company globally with the Model 3 refresh front and center in China and Cybertruck production set to kick off beginning around Halloween. Tesla remains committed to the 1.8 million deliveries for the year, with a strong 4Q needed to hit this number. The company will report its 3Q earnings on October 18th after the bell.”

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Ives admits there “was nothing to write home about” with this delivery report from Tesla, but there are certainly factors leading to what could be the company’s best quarter and year in the forefront.

Ives maintains the ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla with a $350 price target.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk clarifies Trump tariff effect on Tesla: “The cost impact is not trivial”

The U.S. President has stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s tariffs.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles starting next week would affect American electric car maker Tesla. 

This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a recent post on social media platform X.

Musk and Trump

While Elon Musk works closely with the Trump administration due to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the U.S. president has emphasized that the Tesla CEO never asks for favors. This was highlighted in his recent comments, when he stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s 25% auto tariffs.

When asked by reporters if the new tariffs would be good for Tesla, Trump noted that they may be “net neutral or they may be good.” The U.S. president also pointed to Tesla’s automotive plants in Fremont, California and Austin, Texas, which produce vehicles that are sold in the country. “Anybody that has plants in the United States — it’s going to be good for them,” Trump noted.

Tesla Affected

In a post on X, Elon Musk clarified that the Trump administration’s tariffs would affect the prices of vehicle parts that are sourced from other countries. This was a concern that Tesla previously outlined in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, which noted that even with “aggressive localization” of its supply chain, “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.”

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As per Musk in his recent post on X, the cost impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs is no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in his post.

Potential Effects

Reactions to Musk’s comments from users of the social media platform were varied, with some speculating that the Trump auto tariffs could result in Teslas becoming more expensive in the United States. Despite this, the potential increases in Tesla’s vehicle prices might not be as notable as other cars, particularly those that are produced outside the country.

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Investor's Corner

Financial Times retracts report on Tesla’s alleged shady accounting

“Turns out FT can’t do finance,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk quipped on X.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

The Financial Times has issued a retraction for an article it recently published that accused the electric vehicle maker of shady accounting practices.

The FT’s retraction has been appreciated by the electric vehicle community in social media, though many highlighted the fact that the publication’s initial erroneous allegations have already been spread across numerous other media outlets.

The Allegations

In an article published on March 19, the Financial Times pointed out that if one were to compare “Tesla’s capital expenditure in the last six months of 2024 to its valuation of the assets that money was spent on,” “$1.4 billion appears to have gone astray.”

The FT article highlighted that Tesla reported spending $6.3 billion on “purchases of property and equipment excluding finance leases, net of sales” in the second half of 2024. However, in that period, the company’s property, plant, and equipment only rose by $4.9 billion. As noted by members of the r/Accounting subreddit, this appeared to be the basis of the FT‘s article, which seemed careless at best.

Unfortunately, the publication’s allegations were quickly echoed by other news outlets, many of which proceeded to accuse Tesla of implementing shady accounting practices.

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The Retraction

In its retraction, the Financial Times explained that Tesla’s payments for assets already purchased and the possible disposal of depreciated property could help explain the alleged discrepancy in the company’s numbers. With these in consideration, the publication noted that the “crack we’re left with at Tesla is now small enough — just under half a billion dollars — to be filled with some combination of foreign exchange movements, non-material asset write-offs, or the sale of machinery or equipment close to its not-fully depreciated value.”

“As we sound the Alphaville bugle while lowering this particular red flag, one unavoidable conclusion is that at a certain point it’s necessary to trust the auditor’s judgment,” the publication noted.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to the Financial Times‘ retraction, commenting, “Turns out FT can’t do finance” in a post on social media platform X.

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Canaccord reaffirms Tesla’s price target of $404 after Giga Texas visit

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed its price target of $404 for Tesla after a visit to Gigafactory Texas. The investment firm sees an optimistic future for Tesla in the long term despite near-term headwinds.

Canaccord analysts reiterated its “Buy” rating for TSLA stock and revised Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery estimates from ~331,000 vehicles to ~362,000 units. The firm’s first-quarter delivery estimates for Tesla reveal its optimistic take on the company’s future, even though it is still below the consensus estimate of ~417,000 vehicles.

“Our estimate is informed by our opinion that some consumers are delaying vehicle purchases to access the new Model Y and 4Q24 earnings call commentary regarding Model Y-related factory retooling limiting production…We wonder whether purchase decision delays and production limitations are being misinterpreted as halted overall momentum for Tesla. While we do suspect there has been some macroeconomic/brand impact, we, again, do estimate 1Q25 deliveries are mostly being impacted by supply constraints–as well as some demand factors,” Canaccord Genuity noted.

Canaccord analysts recently visited Tesla Giga Texas and left with optimism for the American electric vehicle (EV) maker.

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“It’s hard not to be impressed with how future-forward Tesla is–whether it’s vehicle design or manufacturing. Consistently rethinking the status quo,” Canaccord Genuity analysts commented.

Analysts highlighted Tesla’s progress with Full Self-Driving, specifically version 13.2.8. They noted that Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing strategy would boost production efficiencies. Canaccord Genuity analysts also mentioned that Tesla’s robotaxi services will launch in Austin in the summer.

“For investors with duration and grit, there is a silver-linings playbook,” the Canaccord Genuity analysts concluded.

Canaccord Genuity reflects Elon Musk’s recent stock market advice during the Tesla All-Hands keynote. Musk advised investors to invest in companies with products they love, highlighting that Tesla has a few great products and will continue to launch more.

“Tesla stock goes up and goes down, but actually, it’s still the same company,” Musk noted.

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