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TSLA analysts share their Q4 2023 and 2024 predictions

Credit: Tesla Asia | X

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Tesla (TSLA) analysts predict the company will reach its 2023 guidance but face more challenges in 2024. 

TSLA Q4 2023 Analyst Predictions

Tesla is expected to report a solid fourth quarter this year during its last earnings call for 2023. Based on 14 analysts on an LSEG poll, the Texas-based company is forecasted to report about 473,000 units delivered in the fourth quarter and a total of 1.82 million vehicle deliveries worldwide for the year.

“The fourth quarter is typically the strongest of the year in terms of deliveries for Tesla, and we’re expecting that to be the case again this year,” Garrett Nelson, a senior analyst at CFRA Research, told Reuters.

In its Q4 2022 and FY 2022 earnings call, Tesla deviated from its usual practices and announced its delivery goals for 2023. Tesla aimed to deliver 1.8 million electric vehicles (EVs) this year, a 37% volume increase compared to its 2022 results. At the time, analysts appeared surprised at Tesla’s 2023 goal. Time has shown Tesla was right on the mark. 

TSLA analysts are quickly dampening Tesla’s achievement. Most analysts predict the company will reach its 1.8 million vehicle goal but will not achieve the 2 million units Elon Musk said might be possible during the Q1 2023 earnings call. 

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“These are volatile times from a production standpoint. If things go well, we’ve got a shot at 2 million vehicles this year, but that is the upside case. And we feel comfortable with 1.8, and we’ll see how this year unfolds,” Musk replied to a question from Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney.

Tesla 2024 Analyst Predictions

Analysts polled by Visible Alpha forecast that Tesla will deliver 2.2 million units in 2024. Compared to the 37% growth between 2022 and 2023, Tesla’s growth in 2024 is expected to be slower. 

“Tesla candidly admitted the company is now in an intermediate low-growth period,” Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a note, citing a meeting with Investor Relations Chief Martin Viecha.

Tesla will likely focus on ramping up Cybertruck production and the construction of Giga Mexico next year. The company will also be concentrating on the design of two next-generation vehicles. Elon Musk hinted that two next-generation cars were in the works earlier this year. One of the new vehicles is expected to be Tesla’s $25,000 vehicle. Tesla is working on a whole new assembly line for its $25,000 vehicle, which is expected to be built in Mexico. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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GM CEO Mary Barra says she told Biden to give Tesla and Musk EV credit

“He was crediting me, and I said, ‘Actually, I think a lot of that credit goes to Elon and Tesla…You know me, Andrew. I don’t want to take credit for things.”

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General Motors CEO Mary Barra said in a new interview on Wednesday that she told President Joe Biden to credit Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk, for the widespread electric vehicle transition.

She said she told Biden this after the former President credited her and GM for leading EV efforts in the United States.

During an interview at the New York Times Dealbook Summit with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Barra said she told Biden that crediting her was essentially a mistake, and that Musk and Tesla should have been explicitly mentioned (via Business Insider):

“He was crediting me, and I said, ‘Actually, I think a lot of that credit goes to Elon and Tesla…You know me, Andrew. I don’t want to take credit for things.”

Back in 2021, President Biden visited GM’s “Factory Zero” plant in Detroit, which was the centerpiece of the company’s massive transition to EVs. The former President went on to discuss the EV industry, and claimed that GM and Barra were the true leaders who caused the change:

“In the auto industry, Detroit is leading the world in electric vehicles. You know how critical it is? Mary, I remember talking to you way back in January about the need for America to lead in electric vehicles. I can remember your dramatic announcement that by 2035, GM would be 100% electric. You changed the whole story, Mary. You did, Mary. You electrified the entire automotive industry. I’m serious. You led, and it matters.”

People were baffled by the President’s decision to highlight GM and Barra, and not Tesla and Musk, who truly started the transition to EVs. GM, Ford, and many other companies only followed in the footsteps of Tesla after it started to take market share from them.

Elon Musk and Tesla try to save legacy automakers from Déjà vu

Musk would eventually go on to talk about Biden’s words later on:

They have so much power over the White House that they can exclude Tesla from an EV Summit. And, in case the first thing, in case that wasn’t enough, then you have President Biden with Mary Barra at a subsequent event, congratulating Mary for having led the EV revolution.”

In Q4 2021, which was shortly after Biden’s comments, Tesla delivered 300,000 EVs. GM delivered just 26.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving shows confident navigation in heavy snow

So far, from what we’ve seen, snow has not been a huge issue for the most recent Full Self-Driving release. It seems to be acting confidently and handling even snow-covered roads with relative ease.

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Credit: Grok

Tesla Full Self-Driving is getting its first taste of Winter weather for late 2025, as snow is starting to fall all across the United States.

The suite has been vastly improved after Tesla released v14 to many owners with capable hardware, and driving performance, along with overall behavior, has really been something to admire. This is by far the best version of FSD Tesla has ever released, and although there are a handful of regressions with each subsequent release, they are usually cleared up within a week or two.

Tesla is releasing a modified version of FSD v14 for Hardware 3 owners: here’s when

However, adverse weather conditions are something that Tesla will have to confront, as heavy rain, snow, and other interesting situations are bound to occur. In order for the vehicles to be fully autonomous, they will have to go through these scenarios safely and accurately.

One big issue I’ve had, especially in heavy rain, is that the camera vision might be obstructed, which will display messages that certain features’ performance might be degraded.

So far, from what we’ve seen, snow has not been a huge issue for the most recent Full Self-Driving release. It seems to be acting confidently and handling even snow-covered roads with relative ease:

Moving into the winter months, it will be very interesting to see how FSD handles even more concerning conditions, especially with black ice, freezing rain and snow mix, and other things that happen during colder conditions.

We are excited to test it ourselves, but I am waiting for heavy snowfall to make it to Pennsylvania so I can truly push it to the limit.

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Tesla hosts Rome Mayor for first Italian FSD Supervised road demo

The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets.

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Credit: @andst7/X

Tesla definitely seems to be actively engaging European officials on FSD’s capabilities, with the company hosting Rome Mayor Roberto Gualtieri and Mobility Assessor Eugenio Patanè for a hands-on road demonstration. 

The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets. This comes amid Tesla’s push for FSD’s EU regulatory approvals in the coming year.

Rome officials experience FSD Supervised

Tesla conducted the demo using a Model 3 equipped with Full Self-Driving (Supervised), tackling typical Roman traffic including complex intersections, roundabouts, pedestrian crossings and mixed users like cars, bikes and scooters.

The system showcased AI-based assisted driving, prioritizing safety while maintaining flow. FSD also handled overtakes and lane decisions, though with constant driver supervision.

Investor Andrea Stroppa detailed the event on X, noting the system’s potential to reduce severe collision risks by up to seven times compared to traditional driving, based on Tesla’s data from billions of global fleet miles. The session highlighted FSD’s role as an assistance tool in its Supervised form, not a replacement, with the driver fully responsible at all times.

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Path to European rollout

Tesla has logged over 1 million kilometers of testing across 17 European countries, including Italy, to refine FSD for local conditions. The fact that Rome officials personally tested FSD Supervised bodes well for the program’s approval, as it suggests that key individuals are closely watching Tesla’s efforts and innovations.

Assessor Patanè also highlighted the administration’s interest in technologies that boost road safety and urban travel quality, viewing them as aids for both private and public transport while respecting rules.

Replies on X urged involving Italy’s Transport Ministry to speed approvals, with one user noting, “Great idea to involve the mayor! It would be necessary to involve components of the Ministry of Transport and the government as soon as possible: it’s they who can accelerate the approval of FSD in Italy.”

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