Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has surged 40% over the past seven days. Tesla’s recovery comes amidst some updates from Wall Street about the electric car maker’s short-term and long-term prospects.
In a note earlier this week, Argus Research analyst Bill Selesky cut his rating on TSLA stock from “Buy” to “Hold.” Explaining his new outlook, Selesky stated that deliveries of the company would likely be lower due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, as well as the shuttering of Tesla’s production facilities.
“Prior to the outbreak, we had expected fairly robust deliveries from Tesla in 2020, as consumers continued to flock to the Model S, Model X, and more recently, the Model 3,” Selesky wrote, adding that Argus’ delivery forecast for Tesla this year has been updated to about 409,000 cars, a 19% decrease from the firm’s initial estimates.
Selesky further noted that Tesla still holds strong long-term prospects, though he believed that the company’s products would likely not be a priority for consumers in the near term.
“We still think that Tesla has strong long-term prospects. However, in the near term, we believe that consumers will focus on basic concerns (food, safety, employment, etc.) and expect consumer confidence and spending to take a major hit as consumers defer large discretionary purchases,” he wrote.
-->Similar to the Argus analyst, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli adjusted his expectations for the electric car maker this year. While he kept his “Buy” rating on TSLA stock, Michaeli lowered his price target for Tesla to $246 from $312. Citi’s 2020 delivery forecast for Tesla was also reduced to about 434,000 cars from the original 517,000.
Elaborating further, the Citi analyst stated that Tesla would likely post an adjusted loss in the first and second quarters, breaking even in the third quarter and posting a profit in the fourth quarter. Michaeli also mentioned that Tesla’s $2.3 billion capital raise in February “added an important cushion to absorb our modeled shutdown in Q2, when Tesla is likely to face operating losses and a working capital drain.”
Interestingly enough, UBS recently upgrade Tesla stock from “Sell” to “Neutral.” Analysts from the firm stated that the company has relatively high demand visibility and sustained tech leadership in the EV market. The firm also mentioned the Model Y and the Made-in-China Model 3, both of which could affect the company’s numbers this year.
“We reiterate our view that Tesla should be able to defend its technology leadership in EV powertrain, connectivity, and autonomy and rapidly gain market share. Also, we think demand for Tesla’s products is not at risk with oil at $30/bbl because its products are already on sticker price parity vs. equivalent premium cars (and superior in cost of ownership),” the UBS analysts noted.
Tesla stock is as volatile as ever, and as the greater market felt the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the electric car maker’s shares have swung wildly, going as low as $351 per share last week. On the flip side, Tesla stock has exhibited an equally spirited recovery, rising as much as 47% over the past seven days. This Thursday, TSLA stock traded as high as $559.98 per share after the opening bell.
-->Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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