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Uber CEO shares his doubts on Tesla’s robotaxi plans

Credit: The Logan Bartlett Show | YouTube

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The CEO of ride-sharing platform Uber has shared some of his doubts about Tesla’s ability to effectively execute robotaxi plans for its customers, pointing to the customer service side of the business as well as vehicle owner skepticism about letting strangers into their cars.

Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi platform in October, and CEO Elon Musk has talked at length over the years about hopes that such a platform could let owners’ vehicles work in a ride-sharing capacity while not in use, effectively making them money while driving themselves and ride-share passengers.

On Friday, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi appeared on the Logan Bartlett Show on YouTube to discuss autonomous vehicles, during which he expressed more than a few doubts about Tesla’s robotaxi plans. For one, he says, peak ride-sharing times might coincide with the times owners want to use their own vehicles.

Tesla releases Q2 2024 vehicle safety report

“Probably the times at which you’re going to want your Tesla are probably going to be the same times that ridership is going to be at a peak,” Khosrowshahi said during the interview.

He also notes that he doesn’t think society is prepared for self-driving vehicles, even if they are getting closer to goals of becoming safer than human drivers.

“Logic would dictate that if robots are twice as good a driver or three times as good as drivers as humans, that’s good for society going forward, but I honestly don’t know if society’s ready to accept that,” Khosrowshahi said.

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The Uber CEO also talked about the business changes that Tesla would need to invest in to successfully build such a platform, and he noted how different he believes the ride-sharing and vehicle-building businesses really are.

“It’s a really, really different business you know, as well as talking about hardware, to build a $20,000 or $50,000 piece of hardware from driving over 30 million transactions every day that on a revenue basis you make $2 off of,” he added. “It’s just a very, very different business.”

Khosrowshahi also goes on to highlight the extra platforms that companies have to create to accommodate things that can go wrong in a ride-sharing vehicle, from people getting sick and wanting to pay with cash to those losing items in their ride-share, accidents, and more.

Unsurprisingly, he notes that it might be worthwhile for Tesla to partner with ride-sharing services like Uber in the future instead of developing its own, noting that he thinks the automaker could benefit from partnering with Uber.

“It’s taken us 15 years. It’s taken us tens of billions of dollars of capital, and we can provide that instantly to a partner,” Khosrowshahi added. “Hopefully, Tesla will be one of those partners.”

You can see the full interview with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi below, as hosted by the Logan Bartlett show.

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To be sure, Tesla has already teased a mobile platform it has been building for its robotaxi plans, and it has been developing its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised for the past several years through testing and training from drivers that have purchased the software.

Other companies like Waymo and Cruise have also been working on their own driverless ride-hailing solutions, with the former already offering paid rides in select areas for the service. Despite this, Musk has previously highlighted that he thinks these companies will have a lot more trouble scaling these services, due to their requirements of high-density mapping of specific serviceable areas.

These, Musk says, are unlike FSD, which can theoretically be used just about anywhere due to its camera-based system and continuously-trained neural network. It’s worth noting that Tesla’s FSD still requires supervision, hence the name FSD “Supervised,” and it isn’t exactly clear just yet when the company expects to launch unsupervised versions of the software.

Although Tesla was originally supposed to hold its robotaxi unveiling event this month, Musk noted that the delayed event would allow the company to make some important changes and allow it to show off additional features.

“Requested what I think is an important design change to the front, and extra time allows us to show off a few other things,” Musk wrote in a post on X last month.

Musk denies rumors that Tesla tapped new robotaxi head

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Zach is a renewable energy reporter who has been covering electric vehicles since 2020. He grew up in Fremont, California, and he currently lives in Colorado. His work has appeared in the Chicago Tribune, KRON4 San Francisco, FOX31 Denver, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and many other publications. When he isn't covering Tesla or other EV companies, you can find him writing and performing music, drinking a good cup of coffee, or hanging out with his cats, Banks and Freddie. Reach out at zach@teslarati.com, find him on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.

The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.

Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.

There are plenty of ways the company can do this:

Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts

SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.

SpaceX is charging Anthropic massive money for its compute

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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity

The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.

Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.

Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.

High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online

GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.

Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications

Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.

These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.

Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages

SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.

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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.

SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.

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Tesla headlights cause recall of over 20,000 Model 3 and Model Y

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Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.

Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”

Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.

Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.

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However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.

Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.

Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.

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Elon Musk

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.

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Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.

On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.

Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.

The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.

For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.

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