

News
U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated
EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.
According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.
“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.
Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected
In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.
Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.
“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”
He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”
The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:
- 21% in the 2018 report
- 26% in the 2020 report
- 42% in the 2021 report
- 53% in the 2022 report
What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.
Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.
“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”
“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”
3 Major Factors
Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.
“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”
Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.
“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”
“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”
Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.
“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”
One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.
“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”
“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”
He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.
“There’s room to grow here.”
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1
News
Tesla hired over 1,000 factory workers for its Semi program in NV: report
The update was initially reported by Insider, which cited three people reportedly familiar with the matter.

Tesla seems to be putting a lot of effort into growing its Semi team. As per recent reports, the company has hired over 1,000 factory workers in Nevada for its Semi program.
The update was initially reported by Insider, which cited three people reportedly familiar with the matter.
Bigger Semi Team
As per the publication’s sources, Tesla has reportedly hired over a thousand new factory workers for the Semi program in Nevada. The hiring ramp is reportedly part of the company’s efforts to fulfill the orders for the Semi, which have been accumulating for years.
To help the new members of the Semi team, Tesla has reportedly brought in the new workers to Giga Nevada for training and tours over the past months. These efforts are quite a notable update for the Semi program, the publication’s sources claimed, since less than 100 factory workers were reportedly assigned to the Class 8 all-electric truck until recently.
Tesla has not issued a comment about the matter as of writing.
Tesla Semi Jobs and Updates
Insider’s report came amidst a hiring ramp in Tesla’s Careers website. As per previous reports, Tesla’s Careers website has uploaded over 80 positions related to the Semi program. The positions are varied, with listings being posted for engineering-related roles in Palo Alto, California, to manufacturing-related roles in Sparks, Nevada, and vehicle service-related roles in Sacramento, California.
Tesla also shared a recent video of the ongoing progress of the Semi factory’s construction near Giga Nevada. As per Tesla Semi program lead Dan Priestley, the company has spent the last few months building the facility’s shell, so efforts are now underway to equip the factory with production equipment. The Tesla executive also reiterated the company’s target of producing 50,000 units of the Semi annually from its Nevada factory.
Lifestyle
Elon Musk jokes he will join Mr Beast’s “100 Men vs 1 Gorilla” challenge
It’s a good sign, if any, that the overworked Musk is becoming a bit more lighthearted again.

Following the first quarter Tesla earnings call, CEO Elon Musk seems to have become a bit more relaxed—relaxed enough to joke about fighting a gorilla with 99 other people, at least.
It’s a good sign, if any, that the overworked Musk is becoming a bit more lighthearted again and not too busy picking fights with politicians on social media.
The Viral 100 Men vs 1 Gorilla Challenge
Over the weekend, a post on social media platform X went viral. The post itself was quite simple, with user @DreamChasnMike stating that he thinks 100 men could beat one gorilla. “Everybody just gotta be dedicated to the sh*t,” the X user joked. The post exploded on the platform, garnering 284 million impressions as of writing.
The silly question also triggered a massive debate about whether 100 men would really stand a chance against a literal gorilla. Some users even lamented that the premise was a sign of male hubris. Nevertheless, the question proved to be a fun topic on X, with some more dedicated users even posting simulated videos of what the “100 Men vs 1 Gorilla Challenge” could look like.
Mr. Beast and Elon Musk Join In
The premise is quite similar to other viral videos from noted YouTube creator Mr. Beast, so it was no surprise that edited images of Mr. Beast YouTube thumbnails with “100 Men vs a Gorilla” also started spreading on the social media platform. Mr. Beast, who tends to be game to such silly ideas, actually reposted the edited image, joking “Need 100 men to test this, any volunteers?”
In true Elon Musk fashion, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO noted that he would join the challenge. “Sure, what’s the worst that could happen” Musk wrote in his post on X. Musk’s reply triggered quite a few laughs on X, with some stating that the world probably still needs the CEO.
While silly, Musk’s comment and his recent, more frequent posts about his companies’ products like Starlink and Grok have been received well by his supporters. Over the past months, after all, Musk has been very political and quite confrontational on social media. With Musk soon taking a step back from the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) daily operations, however, it seems like X will soon get a more tempered and lighthearted Elon Musk once more.
News
Big Tesla win? Sec Lutnick says cars with 85% domestic content will face zero tariffs
That’s a big competitive advantage for Tesla’s best-selling vehicle.

It appears that Tesla may see itself with a notable advantage in the United States.
This is, at least, as per recent comments from United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Lutnick’s Comments
In recent comments to reporters, Lutnick stated that vehicles finished in the United States with 85% domestic content will have no tariff applied, as noted in a report from The Guardian. Automakers that meet this threshold stand to gain an advantage in the U.S. auto sector, especially considering the Trump administration’s aggressive tariffs.
As per Lutnick, the administration’s auto tariffs will apply to foreign carmakers that are building their vehicles in the United States. “This is ‘finish your cars in America and you win’,” Lutnick stated.
Big Tesla Advantage
Lutnick’s comments were received positively by Tesla watchers on social media, many of whom noted that the threshold would probably be met only by the electric vehicle maker’s cars. Teslas that are sold in the United States are built in the United States, and they have consistently ranked among the most American cars in the country for several years running.
Back in December, for example, American University’s Kogod School of Business released its Made in America Auto Index, which explores the total domestic content of vehicles that are available for purchase today. In its rankings, only three vehicles received a total domestic content score of 85% or higher—the Tesla Model Y, Model Y Long Range, and the Model 3 Performance.
The two Model Y variants received a total domestic content score of 85%, while the Model 3 Performance had a total domestic content of 87.5%. If Secretary Lutnick’s comments are any indication, these three vehicles would be subjected to zero tariffs. This bodes well for Tesla, as the Model Y is the company’s best-selling vehicle by a notable margin.
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