News
What will happen to Elon Musk’s Tesla on its space journey to Mars?
SpaceX has completed the last crucial step of Falcon Heavy’s inaugural test flight after successfully launching Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster out of Earth’s orbit, on a trajectory into deep space. But what will happen to the car and ‘Starman’ as it makes its long journey to Mars? Let us explore the details.
Although Elon Musk indicated that the Tesla had been placed in an orbit that would nearly extend to the beginnings of the solar system’s first asteroid belt (on average more than 150 million miles away from Earth’s orbit), SpaceX updated that orbit estimate about 24 hours later and confirmed that the orbit was considerably closer to Mars’ orbit than the asteroid belt beyond the Red Planet.
Starman gives one final farewell to Earth as he departs for deep space aboard Musk’s Tesla Roadster. (SpaceX)
Understandably, the ultimate destination and state of the Roadster have been the source of an array of questions from those less familiar with interplanetary travel and orbital mechanics – most people.
How exactly does space travel work?
Before delving into the details, it’s crucial that I try to give everyone equal footing in the form of a basic understanding of what, how, and whens of spaceflight. To reach orbit, Falcon Heavy launched its Tesla payload horizontally. Once it rose vertically above the majority of Earth’s atmosphere, the rocket angled over until it was essentially thrusting parallel to Earth’s surface. Think of it like spinning a ball on a string: only after a certain speed will the ball successfully spin in a circle – spin too slow and the ball will simply fall. Reaching Earth orbit is very similar in concept: Falcon Heavy boosts the upper stage above Earth’s atmosphere, and the upper stage ignites and gains as much horizontal speed as possible.
All this time, both it and its Tesla payload are being pulled down by Earth’s gravity, but at a certain speed (8 kilometers per second, or ~18,000 mph), the rocket and its payload end up going faster around the Earth than its gravity can pull them down. A famous analogy can be found in a simple tennis ball: thrown normally, the ball will arc over and eventually fall to the ground. However, if a ball is thrown fast enough (and was also able to avoid being incinerated by friction against the atmosphere), one can imagine the ball going over the horizon, traveling around the Earth, and coming right back to the thrower.
Elon Musk walks among his recovered Falcon Heavy boosters at LZ-1 and 2. (Elon Musk)
Throwing a ball (or spaceship) into orbit
Amazingly, this becomes a far more reasonable proposition when dealing with asteroids, comets, and moons with much light gravity than Earth’s “1G.” For example, on Mars’ tiny moon Phobos, an astronaut could very nearly escape from the moon by running, and could almost effortlessly throw a ball fast enough to orbit Phobos (a blistering 25 mph would be required). Earth is just like that, just much, much, much larger, and with a thick atmosphere that both keeps us, humans, alive and also makes it quite a bit more difficult for us to get into orbit.
Back to Earth orbit. The first point of stability (when you are going faster forward than the Earth can pull you down) is called “low Earth orbit,” (LEO) being roughly the lowest height and velocity necessary to stably orbit the Earth. This is approximately where the International Space Station (ISS) is located (~ 250 miles above). Famously, astronauts and satellites at this altitude travel around the Earth once every 90 minutes, half in pure sunlight, half in the darkness of Earth’s own shadow – essentially a special sunrise and sunset every three-quarter of an hour.
Mars’ largest moon Phobos captured at the edge of the planet’s limb. Phobos is less than 15 miles in diameter. (ESA/Mars Express)
Now, expand that model of Earth and the Roadster in orbit around it to the entire solar system. In this model, Earth and all other objects are orbiting the Sun at different distances and speeds, like different bands of the same tree ring. The solar system is massive, however, and thus everything has to be scaled up: for example, the Earth orbits the Sun at 30 kilometers per second (~70,000 mph), nearly four times faster than our humble Tesla in LEO.
Remember: when orbiting Earth, objects are still under the firm hold of the planet’s gravity, but merely moving so fast that they are in a constant state of freefall. Take away the air, and being on the ISS is akin to skydiving, but if the skydive never ended. To truly escape Earth’s gravity and head to the Moon, Mars, or beyond, a rocket needs to go even faster still. In the case of the Roadster, this meant first speeding up to 8 km/s to reach a stable orbit around Earth, followed several hours later by one final burn that gave the payload another 3-4 km/s of speed. On the scale of the solar system, Roadster’s journey away from Earth can be thought of like, well, a Roadster making its way to the top of a steep hill. After climbing to the top, the Roadster is nearly out of energy but has just enough to accelerate as it begins its way down the other side. About six hours after launch, the rocket’s upper stage successfully crested the summit of Earth’s gravitational hill before rocketing down the other side, on its way to deep space, Mars, and beyond.
In essence, the rocket moved Musk’s Tesla from an orbit around Earth to an orbit around the Sun itself. Just as Earth takes 365 days (a year) to travel once around the Sun, the Roadster will complete an orbit of the sun every once in awhile, likely closer to the two Earth years it takes for Mars to complete its orbit. Similarly, evidenced by Earth and all the other planets in the solar system, orbiting the sun is typically very stable – humans do not exactly live in fear of the Earth falling into the sun, we just keep going around and around. Like the planets, Musk’s Roadster will almost certainly remain in its current orbit for millions of years – maybe even a billion years – quietly completing an orbit around the sun every two or so years for what is effectively an eternity on a human scale. Eventually, it’s possible that the Roadster and Starman will be pulled over time by the gravity of Earth in such a way that it reenters Earth’s atmosphere and burns up, but that is unlikely to happen for thousands of millennia.
Where is the Roadster headed?
The graphic tweeted by Musk serves as a good initial explanation of complex terms used to describe orbital mechanics. Because it is not circular, the orbit is known as elliptical, while the points closest to (perihelion) and furthest from (aphelion) the Sun also have their special names. The AU mentioned in the graphic refers to astronomical units, a standard measurement based upon the average distance between the Earth and the Sun – approximately 93 million miles. For comparison, a full trip around the Earth’s equator is a little less than 25,000 miles. Space is unfathomably immense.
Third burn successful. Exceeded Mars orbit and kept going to the Asteroid Belt. pic.twitter.com/bKhRN73WHF
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 7, 2018
-
- Falcon Heavy explodes off of Pad 39A in a spectacle of fire, Roadster in tow. (Tom Cross)
-
- The Roadster’s orbit will reach out on one end as far as Mars, SpaceX’s ultimate destination as a company. (SpaceX)
Falcon Heavy’s upper stage appears to have simply burned until it ran out of fuel, and managed with the far end of its orbit at about 1.61 astronautical units (~250 million km) is considerably less than Musk’s pre-launch press conference suggestion that the Roadster was expected to end up in an orbit of 380 to 450 million kilometers.
Musk: If the third burn goes as we hope, the Tesla will get as far away as 380 to 450 million km from Earth.
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) February 5, 2018
Is the Roadster going to Mars?
Sadly, the answer is a hard “no.” At most, the Tesla might have been sent into an orbit around the sun (heliocentric orbit) with a very close approach to Mars – a flyby, so to speak. It appears that SpaceX managed to get quite close to that original goal, and it is entirely possible that Starman’s Roadster could pass close to Mars at points along its orbit, although there will be no way to capture or transmit images from the Roadster.
While there will be no cameras to capture it, it looks like Starman could actually – one day – pass close to the Red Planet on his billion year journey. (SpaceX)
Perhaps most importantly, to launch the Roadster into such a high orbit, SpaceX had to ensure that the rocket’s upper stage could coast for multiple hours in Earth orbit and still be able to precisely reignite its Merlin Vacuum (MVac) engine for a final burn. By successfully accomplishing precisely that, SpaceX has taken a huge step towards being able to compete with the United Launch Alliance for all government and defense-related launch contracts, even those requiring direct placement into geostationary orbit (GEO), versus a slower but more common geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). Not coincidentally, that capability also means that SpaceX can efficiently send payloads beyond Earth orbit, as they have now done for the first time with Musk’s Tesla Roadster.
How long will it take?
Because the Roadster is not actually going to any planets, moons, or asteroids, it will never reach them. However, the electric car’s newfound orbital home means that it will at least be far, far from Earth – at points, it’s trajectory will cross closest to the orbits of Mars and Earth. It will take a minimum of several months for the Roadster to reach those distances, even at its blistering speed of 12 kilometers per second relative to Earth. Jonathan McDowell, a practicing astronomer, estimated that the Roadster would pass Mars orbit – to be clear, not arriving at Mars, simply reaching the same distance away from the Sun as Mars orbits – in July 2018, approximately five months from today.
Corrected orbital data for the Roadster: 0.99 x 1.71 AU x 1.1 deg
C3 = 12.0, passes orbit of Mars Jul 2018, aphelion November— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) February 8, 2018
What’s going to happen to Starman and the Roadster?
Soaring through the hard vacuum of deep space, not a whole lot can be expected to happen to Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster and Starman. As mentioned, the high heliocentric orbit it was placed in will be incredibly stable, likely allowing the car to remain in deep space for tens of millions of years. Now, that is not to say that future human explorers millions of years from now would recognize whatever remained – deep space is characterized by a relatively extreme radiation environment that will not be kind to many components that make up the Roadster’s structure. Carbon fiber, plastic, leather, and paint all contain organic components that will be assaulted by an environment far harsher than that in and around Earth.
-
- Elon’s Tesla Roadster and his astronaut stand-in. (Elon Musk)
-
- . . . . . . . . yep. This is a thing, now. (SpaceX)
Still, hyperbolic claims that “Radiation Will Tear Elon Musk’s Rocket Car to Bits in a Year” are ridiculously exaggerated. Vacuum is characterized by the absence of anything, and that includes all conceivable methods of erosion. While high energy radiation found in deep space can and likely will shred the Tesla’s structural integrity and eventually bleach or discolor the car, the Roadster will be perfectly suspended in microgravity (basically zero gravity) conditions with almost no chance whatsoever of impacts by even tiny space debris like micrometeorites. If an aspiring car collector tried to recover the eccentric and historic trophy from space in several centuries/millennia, Roadster would very likely fall to pieces or even crumble to dust when moved or placed in an environment with any significant gravity. But, it will almost without a doubt retain its recognizable shape almost indefinitely, at least on a human scale. Starman can be expected to react very similarly.
hyperbolic claims that “Radiation Will Tear Elon Musk’s Rocket Car to Bits in a Year” are ridiculously exaggerated.
Finally, it appears that SpaceX has not installed any method of power generation or communication on Starman’s ride, meaning that humans likely saw their last views of the vehicle after SpaceX cut the live feed to Starman. This sadly means that there will be no photo ops with Starman soaring past Mars or exploring the asteroid belt, although that option will certainly be reserved for any future eccentric, Muskian test payloads.
Why does sending a car into deep space matter?
Ultimately, this final success is an invaluable cherry on top of what was already a stunning achievement. Without a single scrubbed launch attempt or unintended hold during the final countdown, SpaceX’s first launch of what is now the most capable operational rocket in the world was a perfect success in almost all regards. Although the massive rocket’s center booster failed to land aboard the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) due to an apparent shortage of the chemical components used to reignite the booster’s engines, both side boosters were recovered on land with what can only be described as well-oiled expertise. Meanwhile, the rocket simply survived the launch in general, didn’t destroy the pad, successfully tested its unproven side booster separation mechanism, and launched an eccentric payload into the highest orbit yet achieved by the commercial launch company.
-
- It’s easy to understand why Musk himself laughed about Roadster looking very much like CGI. (SpaceX)
-
- Is this real life? Who knows anymore. (SpaceX)
-
- . . . . . . . . yep. This is a thing, now. (SpaceX)
In the case of Elon Musk, it certainly appears that it is possible to – at least once and awhile – have one’s cake and eat it too. Follow along live as launch photographer Tom Cross and I cover these exciting proceedings as close to live as possible.
Teslarati – Instagram – Twitter
Tom Cross – Twitter
Eric Ralph – Twitter
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call highlighted improving margins, record energy performance, expanding autonomy efforts, and a sharp acceleration in AI and robotics investments.
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Key takeaways
Tesla reported sequential improvement in automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, rising from 15.4% to 17.9%, supported by favorable regional mix effects despite a 16% decline in deliveries. Total gross margin exceeded 20.1%, the highest level in more than two years, even with lower fixed-cost absorption and tariff impacts.
The energy business delivered standout results, with revenue reaching nearly $12.8 billion, up 26.6% year over year. Energy gross profit hit a new quarterly record, driven by strong global demand and high deployments of MegaPack and Powerwall across all regions, as noted in a report from The Motley Fool.
Tesla also stated that paid Full Self-Driving customers have climbed to nearly 1.1 million worldwide, with about 70% having purchased FSD outright. The company has now fully transitioned FSD to a subscription-based sales model, which should create a short-term margin headwind for automotive results.
Free cash flow totaled $1.4 billion for the quarter. Operating expenses rose by $500 million sequentially as well.
Production shifts, robotics, and AI investment
Musk further confirmed that Model S and Model X production is expected to wind down next quarter, and plans are underway to convert Fremont’s S/X line into an Optimus robot factory with a capacity of one million units.
Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles, operating across the Bay Area and Austin, with Musk noting a rapid monthly expansion pace. He also reiterated that CyberCab production is expected to begin in April, following a slow initial S-curve ramp before scaling beyond other vehicle programs.
Looking ahead, Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion next year, thanks to the company’s operations across its six factories, the expansion of its fleet expansion, and the ramp of its AI compute. Additional investments in AI chips, compute infrastructure, and future in-house semiconductor manufacturing were discussed but are not included in the company’s current CapEx guidance.
More importantly, Tesla ended the year with a larger backlog than in recent years. This is supported by record deliveries in smaller international markets and stronger demand across APAC and EMEA. Energy backlog remains strong globally as well, though Tesla cautioned that margin pressure could emerge from competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs.
Tesla is bringing closure to its flagship Model S and Model X vehicles, which CEO Elon Musk said several years ago were only produced for “sentimental reasons.”
The Model S and Model X have been light contributors to Tesla’s delivery growth over the past few years, commonly contributing only a few percentage points toward the over 1.7 million cars the company has handed over to customers annually since 2022.
However, the Model S and Model X have remained in production because of their high-end performance and flagship status; they are truly two vehicles that are premium offerings and do not hold major weight toward Tesla’s future goals.
On Wednesday, during the Q4 2025 Earnings Call, Musk confirmed that Tesla would bring closure to the two models, ending their production and making way for the manufacturing efforts of the Optimus robot:
“It is time to bring the Model S and Model X programs to an end with an honorable discharge. It is time to bring the S/X programs to an end. It’s part of our overall shift to an autonomous future.”
Musk said the production lines that Tesla has for the Model S and Model X at the Fremont Factory in Northern California will be transitioned to Optimus production lines that will produce one million units per year.
Tesla Fremont Factory celebrates 15 years of electric vehicle production
Tesla will continue to service Model S and Model X vehicles, but it will officially stop deliveries of the cars in Q2, as inventory will be liquidated. When they’re gone, they’re gone.
BREAKING: Tesla will wind down Model S and Model X production next quarter, Elon Musk confirms.
“It is time to bring the Model S and Model X programs to an end with an honorable discharge.” pic.twitter.com/Czn7aQjJE1
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 28, 2026
Tesla has been making moves to sunset the two vehicles for the better part of one year. Last July, it stopped taking any custom orders for vehicles in Europe, essentially pushing the idea that the program was coming to a close soon.
Musk said back in 2019:
“I mean, they’re very expensive, made in low volume. To be totally frank, we’re continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They’re really of minor importance to the future.”
That point is more relevant than ever as Tesla is ending the production of the cars to make way for Optimus, which will likely be Tesla’s biggest product in the coming years.
Musk added during the Earnings Call on Wednesday that he believes Optimus will be a major needle-mover of the United States’ GDP, as it will increase productivity and enable universal high income for humans.
Investor's Corner
LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call follows the release of the company’s Q4 and full-year 2025 update letter.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call follows the release of the company’s Q4 and full-year 2025 update letter, which was published on Tesla’s Investor Relations website after markets closed on January 28, 2025.
The results cap a quarter in which Tesla produced more than 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products. For the full year, Tesla produced 1.65 million vehicles and delivered 1.63 million, while total energy storage deployments reached 46.7 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Results
According to Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP earnings per share of $0.24 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 in the fourth quarter. Total revenue for Q4 came in at $24.901 billion, while GAAP net income was reported at $840 million.
For full-year 2025, Tesla reported GAAP EPS of $1.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 per share. Total revenue reached $94.83 billion, including $69.53 billion from automotive operations and $12.78 billion from the company’s energy generation and storage business. GAAP net income for the year totaled $3.79 billion.
Earnings call updates
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.
16:25 CT – Good day to everyone, and welcome to another Tesla earnings call live blog. There’s a lot to unpack from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter, so I’m pretty sure this earnings call will be quite interesting.
16:30 CT – The Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call officially starts. IR exec Travis Axelrod opens the call. Elon and other executives are present.
16:30 CT – Elon makes his opening statement and explains why Tesla changed its mission to “Amazing Abundance.” “With the continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we’re headed towards a future of universal high income,” Musk said, adding that along the way, Tesla will still be improving its products while keeping the environment safe and healthy.
16:34 CT – Elon noted that the first steps for this future are happening this year, thanks to Tesla’s autonomy and robotics programs, which will be launching and ramping this year. He also highlighted that Tesla will be making major investments this year, though the company will be very strategic when it comes to its funding. “I think it makes a ton of strategic sense,” Musk said.
16:36 CT – Elon also announces the end of the Model S and Model X programs “with an honorable discharge.” If you’re interested in buying a Model S or X, it’s best to do it now, Musk said. The Model S and Model X factory in Fremont will be replaced by an Optimus line. “It’s slightly sad, but it is time to bring the S and X program to an end. It’s part of our overall shift to an autonomous future,” Musk said.
16:38 CT – Elon discusses how Unsupervised FSD is now starting for the Robotaxi service. He noted that these Unsupervised Robotaxis don’t have any chase cars as of yesterday. He reiterated Tesla’s plans for owners to be able to add their own vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet. Autonomy target for the end of the year is about a quarter or half of the United States, Musk said.
16:41 CT – Elon noted that the Tesla Energy team is absolutely killing it. He also stated that Tesla expects its Energy business to continue growing, and that the “solar opportunity is underrated.”
16:43 CT –Elon also added that Tesla Optimus 3 will be unveiled in about three months, probably. The Model S and Model X line in Fremont will be a million-unit Optimus production line. Looks like Optimus is really coming out of the gate with large, meaningful volumes. “The normal S curve for manufacturing ramps is longer for Optimus,” Musk stated. “Long term, I think Optimus will have a significant impact on the US GDP.”
16:44 CT – Elon closes his opening statements with a sincere thanks to the Tesla team. He also noted that he feels fortunate to be able to work alongside such a talented workforce.
Elon ends his opening remarks with an optimistic prediction about the future.“The future is more exciting than you can imagine,” he concluded.
16:47 CT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja makes his opening remarks. He discusses several aspects of Tesla’s Q4 milestones. He noted that Tesla Energy achieved yet another gross profit record during the fourth quarter. There’s insane demand for the Megapack and Powerwall. Backlogs for these products are healthy this 2026. He also noted that Tesla ended 2025 with a bigger vehicle order backlog compared to recent years.
16:53 CT – Investor questions from Say begin. The first question is about Tesla’s expectations for the Robotaxi Network. Lars Moravy noted that it has the advantage of manufacturing and scale, and Tesla believes that the Robotaxi Network will significantly grow year over year. Elon highlighted that the Cybercab will be produced with no steering wheel or pedals. No fallback. Elon also noted that Tesla expects to produce more Cybercabs than all its other vehicles combined in the future.
16:51 CT – The next question is if Tesla still expects to launch new models, such as affordable cars. Lars Moravy noted that Tesla did release affordable variants last year, and Tesla is still pushing hard to lower its costs. That being said, Tesla is really pushing the Cybercab as its total addressable market is larger than consumer-owned cars. Lars also mentioned that Tesla will produce different vehicles for its Robotaxi services.
16:56 CT – Elon noted that eventually, Tesla will produce mostly autonomous cars. The exception would be the next-generation Roadster, which will be a true driver’s car.
17:03 CT – A question about Elon’s past comments about a potential next pickup truck was asked. Lars noted that the Cybertruck is still performing well in the electric pickup truck segment, though Tesla is known for flexibility. Elon added that Tesla will be transitioning the Cybertruck line to a fully autonomous vehicle line. He also stated that the Cybertruck is a useful vehicle. “An autonomous Cybertruck will be useful for that.”
17:10 CT – A question was asked about when FSD will be 100% Unsupervised. Elon noted that 100% Unsupervised FSD is already being used today, though only in the Austin Robotaxi program. Tesla is still being extremely careful with its rollout.
When asked about Tesla’s chip program, Elon noted that he feels pretty good about Tesla’s chip strategy. But in terms of selling Tesla’s chips outside Tesla, the company has to make sure it has enough chips for Optimus robots, data centers, and other programs first.
17:18 CT – Analyst questions begin. First up is Wolf Research. He asks about Tesla’s increasing Capex, specifically where the majority of it is going. The Tesla CFO noted that programs in six factories are going live this year, so that consumes Capex. The Optimus program also consumes a lot of resources. The growth of Tesla’s current capacity is also consuming a lot of resources. As for how these programs will be funded, the CFO pointed to Tesla’s massive war chest, as well as initiatives such as the Robotaxi Network.
17:21 CT – Morgan Stanley asks about Tesla’s xAI investment. The analyst asked about more information about how Tesla and xAI will work together. The CFO noted that this investment is part of Master Plan Part IV. Elon also mentioned some advantages for xAI’s technology for Tesla’s products, like Grok being used to manage a Robotaxi fleet or a group of Optimus robots.
17:24 CT – Barclays asks Elon about the constraints on memory. Does Tesla have any near term constraints for Tesla vehicles’ memory? Elon responded that the Tesla AI computer is already very compute and memory-efficient. The intelligence per gigabyte is important. Musk noted that Tesla is ahead of the industry by an order of magnitude or more.
17:29 CT – Cannacord asks about startups from China entering the humanoid market. What competitive advantage does Optimus have compared to these rivals? Elon stated that he believes China will be a key competitor in the humanoid robot market. China will be the toughest competitor for Tesla. That being said, Elon noted that Tesla believes Optimus will be ahead in real-world intelligence, electromechanical dexterity, and hand design.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Tesla brings closure to flagship ‘sentimental’ models, Musk confirms
