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X clarifies xAI prediction market rumors, hints at future plans

Musk’s AI firm denied rumors of a Kalshi deal but left the door open. Prediction markets + AI could change how we forecast everything.

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Credit: xAI

X dismissed rumors of xAI entering prediction market partnerships. In a recent X post, Elon Musk’s company clarified that xAI had not yet entered formal partnerships in the prediction market.

However, xAI clarification hinted at future exploration in the prediction market, aligning with X’s goal to become an “everything app.” The speculation underscores AI’s potential to reshape predictive analytics.

“Recent speculation about xAI’s involvement in the prediction market space has been circulating. While we’re enthusiastic about the potential of this industry and engaged in various discussions, no formal partnerships have been confirmed to date. Stay tuned!” noted the X team.

X’s statement followed a Tuesday post by Kalshi, hinting at a collaboration with xAI, which was deleted hours later. Kalshi suggested that xAI could leverage AI to analyze X’s news and social media data, enhancing betting decisions on political and economic events.

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Bloomberg reported Kalshi aims to use xAI for tailored insights, enabling users to wager on outcomes like Federal Reserve rate changes or elections through derivative contracts.

“There’s deep alignment between prediction markets, social media, and AI. Prediction markets capture what people know — AI scales what people can know,” said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. “This is just the beginning of a long collaboration to unlock the full potential of prediction markets.”

The prediction market industry fits X’s vision to evolve into a comprehensive platform, capitalizing on its trend and news leader role. While xAI’s denial quashes immediate partnership claims, its openness to discussions signals potential interest in prediction markets, where AI could amplify real-time insights.

xAI’s cautious stance reflects its focus on strategic AI development while navigating speculative buzz. As X pursues its “everything app” ambition, prediction markets could enhance its ecosystem, blending social media’s pulse with AI-driven analytics. With no partnerships confirmed, xAI’s future moves may yet redefine how users engage with event-based predictions, positioning it at the forefront of AI innovation.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

Investor's Corner

Piper Sandler raises Tesla (TSLA) target after China trip, cites robotics leadership

Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Piper Sandler boosted its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $500 from $400, maintaining an “Overweight” rating after a research trip to China. 

The firm cited Tesla’s leadership in artificial intelligence and robotics as central to its thesis, even as Chinese electric vehicle makers grow more competitive. Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

A China visit

During its visit, Piper Sandler met with several Chinese EV manufacturers, many of which are vertically integrated and expanding rapidly. Analysts noted that these “fast followers” represent Tesla’s most significant competitive challenge. However, executives from multiple companies acknowledged Tesla’s foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, TipRanks stated in a report.

One automaker told Piper Sandler that “without Tesla going from 0 to 1, we can’t go from 1 to 100,” highlighting the Elon Musk-led company’s enduring influence. Analysts said the remarks reflect both admiration and dependence on Tesla’s early innovations, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Tesla’s leadership

Piper Sandler’s report emphasized that while Chinese automakers are formidable in design and production, they look to Tesla for advancements in “real-world” AI applications. Tesla’s focus on autonomous driving and robotics continues to distinguish it from competitors, making the company Piper Sandler’s top investment idea in this space.

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“Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter stated in a note. 

Piper Sandler also shared some of its expectations for Tesla this year, stating that it is estimating that the company will delivery ~495k vehicles this third-quarter, possibly attaining a new all-time record. The firm, however, stated that its 2026 outlook for Tesla is shakier, as the EV maker could just hit ~1.9 million units, which could include as many as 350k affordable “Model 2” vehicles.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla upgraded to Outperform at Baird on ‘physical AI’ outlook

Analyst Ben Kallo also raised Tesla’s price target to $548 from $320.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received a bullish nod from Baird this week, with the firm upgrading the stock to “Outperform” on expectations that the company is positioned to lead in what it calls the “physical AI” era. 

Analyst Ben Kallo also raised Tesla’s price target to $548 from $320, noting that despite muted quarterly results, shares have gained 24% in the past month, outpacing the S&P 500’s 3% rise.

Long-term milestones

The Baird analyst shared his insights in a note to investors. “Relatively muted stock reactions following a series of less-than-stellar quarters and investor inbounds regarding long-term initiatives lead us to believe focus has increasingly shifted to the future for TSLA. We now expect shares to ‘Outperform’ as TSLA is increasingly viewed as the leader in physical AI,” the analyst wrote in his note.

Kallo also pointed to Tesla’s ambitious roadmap as a key reason for the upgrade, as well as the company’s new proposed compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk. The package ties rewards to ambitious milestones, including the delivery of 20 million vehicles annually, the deployment of 1 million robots and 1 million robotaxis, and 10 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions. 

Vehicles, robots, and energy

Baird’s scenario analysis suggested that Tesla could reach a valuation of more than $5.5 trillion by 2035 in its minimum case, with potential upside to $12 trillion and $3,000 per share if milestones are exceeded, as noted in an Investing.com report.

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Beyond Musk’s compensation framework, Baird highlighted multiple near-term catalysts for Tesla. These include potential updates on Optimus, the rollout of more affordable vehicles, new Robotaxi market entries, and an upcoming shareholder vote on Musk’s pay package. Expansion in Tesla’s energy storage and software businesses was also flagged as a growth driver. Kallo also described Tesla as having “lots of irons in the fire,” ranging from the scaling of the Semi to recurring revenue streams tied to software.

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Elon Musk

Tesla called ‘biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen’ by Yale associate dean

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is being called “the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen” by Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld, who made the comments in a recent interview with CNBC.

Sonnenfeld’s comments echo those of many of the company’s skeptics, who argue that its price-to-earnings ratio is far too high when compared to other companies also in the tech industry. Tesla is often compared to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft when these types of discussions come up.

Fundamentally, yes, Tesla does trade at a P/E level that is significantly above that of any comparable company.

However, it is worth mentioning that Tesla is not traded like a typical company, either.

Here’s what Sonnenfeld said regarding Tesla:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Many analysts have admitted in the past that they believe Tesla is an untraditional stock in the sense that many analysts trade it based on narrative and not fundamentals. Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan once said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Dan Nathan, another notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, recently turned bullish on the stock because of “technicals and sentiment.” He said just last week:

“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”

Nathan said Tesla shares show signs of strength moving forward, including holding its 200-day moving average and holding against current resistance levels.

Sonnenfeld’s synopsis of Tesla shares points out that there might be “a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

This could refer to different things: perhaps his recent $1 billion stock buy, which sent the stock skyrocketing, or the fact that many Tesla investors are fans and owners who do not buy and sell on numbers, but rather on news that Musk might report himself.

Tesla is trading around $423.76 at the time of publication, as of 3:25 p.m. on the East Coast.

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