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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship's orbital launch debut could happen as early as September 2022. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.

The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.

First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.

While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.

It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.

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Booster 7 (right) and Booster 8 (left).

Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.

If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.

Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.

Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla confronts Service complaints with new AI-backed strategy

Tesla will use a new AI Agent to help expedite Service claims and improve communication with customers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is implementing a new AI-based strategy to improve service for owners. Service has routinely been among the biggest complaints of owners, although it has improved drastically over the past few years.

Some of the complaints that Tesla has received regarding its Service platform have evidently been used to develop new strategies to not only streamline the entire experience but also to make things easier for the company, which deals with many claims each week.

As a result of complaints in the past, Tesla has used various strategies to make things better for customers. However, the latest improvement comes as a result of AI, something Tesla leans on in many facets of its business.

Tesla adds ingenious solution to app to streamline Service appointments

Tesla’s AI and IT Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Vehicle Service head Raj Jegannathan said on X this week that the company is rolling out a new AI Agent specifically designed to handle service comms with customers.

He said the new Service AI Agent will detect delays in communications between the company and the customers, monitor the sentiment of these conversations, and auto-escalate certain claims directly to leaders.

It will also allow customers to type the word ‘Escalate’ in the message center portion of the phone app after two weeks of delays. This will help customers reach higher-ups more easily and likely will eliminate the complaints that many have had over the past few years.

The company is rolling out the AI Agent in ten pilot locations to start. Its first day being active was May 8.

Jegannathan said:

“Tesla Service’s new AI Agent detects comms delays, monitors sentiment, & auto-escalates to leaders. Starts tomorrow at 10 pilot locations. In 2 weeks, type “Escalate” in ‘message center’ to reach managers. Guardrails in place to prevent abuse. We’ll keep improving!”

Service has had a lot of interesting strategies used to improve things, but it has definitely been a weak point of the Tesla ownership experience. In a perfect world, vehicles wouldn’t need repair for anything, but that is not realistic.

Instead, Tesla has worked to expedite the entire Service experience through various strategies, including F1-style service, and a goal to fix two-thirds of repair claims within the same day.

Parts availability sometimes takes this goal out of reasonableness, but these constant attempts at improving the repair experience show Tesla is doing what it can to make things better for owners.

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Mazda adopts Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) in Japan

Mazda’s decision to adopt Tesla’s standard is intended to provide more convenience to customers.

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Tesla-nacs-north-american-standard
(Credit: Tesla)

Japanese automaker Mazda Motor Corporation has announced that it has reached an agreement with American electric car maker Tesla to adopt the North American Charging Standard (NACS) for its EVs. 

The update was shared by Mazda in a press release.

Mazda’s NACS Commitment

As per Mazda in its press release, NACS will be adopted for battery electric vehicles that will be launched in Japan from 2027 onward. This is quite interesting as Tesla’s NACS system will be used by Mazda within Japan. As per the automaker, its decision to adopt Tesla’s standard is intended to provide more convenience to customers. 

“Mazda adopted NACS to provide customers with greater convenience by a broader range of charging options. This will provide Mazda BEV customers with access to Tesla Superchargers across Japan. Mazda BEVs will be compatible with other charging standards besides NACS with the use of adapters,” Mazda wrote in its press release.

Not the Only Japanese NACS Adopter

Interestingly enough, Mazda is not the first Japanese automaker to adopt NACS to take advantage of Tesla’s Supercharger Network in Japan. In September last year, Sony Honda Mobility announced that it was adopting NACS for its AFEELA electric vehicles. While AFEELA’s EVs are expected to be initially available in the United States in 2025, the vehicles will also be coming to Japan later on.

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Mazda’s adoption of Tesla’s charging standard was praised by Tesla Director of Charging Max de Zegher, who noted that it is only a matter of time before NACS becomes the standard in Japan and other countries. NACS has so far been adopted widely by electric car makers in the United States.

“NACS becoming the standard in Japan (and South Korea) seems like only a matter of time now. It’s also great to see other fast-charging networks starting to install NACS in Japan. Tesla Charging is accelerating the transition to NACS, for the industry to get clarity faster. Vehicle manufacturers also don’t want to build market-specific variants— like CHAdeMO just for Japan or CCS1 just for South Korea,” the Tesla executive wrote in a post on X.

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Tesla proves once more that its factories are its best product

Tesla’s factories are the company’s biggest products–literally.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla’s factories are not just the company’s biggest assets. They are also its best product. This is, at least, as per Tesla China’s recent post on social media platform Weibo.

Tesla China’s Weibo post was shared to celebrate Giga Shanghai’s changeover to the new Model Y, which is currently being delivered to consumers globally.

Tesla’s Best Product

In its post, Tesla China noted that Gigafactory Shanghai was able to complete its new Model Y production ramp up in just six weeks. This is a new record for Tesla, and it speaks to the company’s intense focus on efficiency. Tesla also highlighted the Cybercab’s production line in its Weibo post, stating that the upcoming vehicle will see “ultra-high levels of automation” when it gets produced.

“The factory is Tesla’s best product—Tesla Shanghai Super Factory completed the new Model Y production capacity ramp-up within 6 weeks, setting a record for the company’s fastest model production speed. In the future, the North American factory is expected to roll out a Tesla self-driving electric Cybercab every 5 seconds to subvert the vehicle production and manufacturing model. Adhering to the first principle of car manufacturing is Tesla’s core advantage that is difficult to copy,” Tesla China wrote in its post.

Tesla’s Factories

Tesla’s factories are among the best in the world. Tesla only operates four vehicle factories for its entire vehicle lineup today, which is quite impressive for a company that has so far sold up to 1.8 million vehicles per year. Tesla is expected to improve its factories’ output with its future vehicles as well, with Elon Musk stating during the company’s Q1 2025 All-Hands Meeting that the Cybercab’s factory will look more like a high-speed consumer electronics line than a car production line. These innovations, Musk noted, should allow Tesla to ramp the Cybercab’s production to 2 million units per year. 

Musk highlighted the importance of Tesla’s factories in the first quarter earnings call as well. While discussing the Cybercab’s line, Musk noted that with Tesla, the factory is as much a product as its cars. “The factory is the product as much as the car is the product. So, this really is the first principles approach to manufacturing that will ultimately allow us, I think, to… achieve a cycle time, meaning a unit every five seconds or less, off a single line,” Musk stated.

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