A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

🚨 Wall Street firm UBS lifted its Q3 delivery forecast for Tesla $TSLA to 475,000 units from 431,000 units.

UBS believes there will be “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of… pic.twitter.com/lKmvvvi3Hl

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 23, 2025

Advertisement

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

Tesla saw a notable jump in weekly new vehicle registrations in China, with 17,300 units recorded from September 15 to 21.

The figure marked a 12.7% increase from the previous week’s 15,350 units and represented the highest weekly total in the past 12 weeks. 

Model Y still leads the momentum

The Model Y continued to be Tesla’s best-selling vehicle in China, with 10,340 registrations during the week. Tesla’s recently introduced Model Y L, an extended wheelbase, six-seat variant that launched on August 19, contributed 850 units as deliveries began earlier this month. The Model 3 sedan added 6,060 registrations.

Tesla China noted that customers ordering the Model Y L today can expect deliveries to begin in November, hinting at the strong demand for the newly released vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.

Tesla China’s quarterly performance

Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 57,152 units in August, down 9.9% compared with the 63,456 units from the same month last year but up 40.7% from July’s 40,617 units, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Quarter to date, Tesla’s insurance registrations are up 33.2% sequentially but remain 7.8% lower year-over-year.

Despite Tesla China’s year-to-date numbers still being 5.9% lower than the previous year’s figures, it is difficult not to be impressed with the company’s momentum this Q3 2025. With Model Y L production likely picking up steam soon, the trend of the company’s new vehicle registrations in China may very well prove to be quite interesting in the coming quarter.

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

Similar insights

Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.