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SpaceX and NASA reaffirm Crew Dragon’s January 2019 launch debut target

SpaceX technicians move the integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon during a vacuum chamber test campaign. (SpaceX)

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After what can only be described as an attempt to sandbag the official launch schedule, NASA administrator James Bridenstine remains alone in his public implication that the date for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon test flight (DM-1) is so uncertain that “the first half of 2019” was the closest he would get to an estimate.

Such an uncertain estimate would normally be par for the course of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), but the fact remains that SpaceX and NASA have recently filed for and received specific launch date allotments for Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch, dates little more than 4-6 weeks away from today.

As such, the fact that NASA associate administrator Bill Gerstenmaier – a critical hands-on leader of NASA’s commercial and exploration programs – specifically stated that NASA and SpaceX are targeting DM-1’s launch in January is an unusually stark indication that the two senior NASA officials are not reading from the same script, so to speak. The reasons for the dramatic differences in official statements separated by just one week are hard to parse and would inevitably tread into waters of pure speculation and political machinations.

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What is far more important is that Gerstenmaier – backed up by Phil McCalister, NASA Director of Commercial Spaceflight – reaffirmed that NASA is planning for the first orbital, uncrewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon as early as January 2019, albeit with a slight 10-day slip since the last specific launch date (January 7) was announced.

Speaking before and after Falcon 9’s recent launch of Cargo Dragon (CRS-16) on December 5th, SpaceX VP of Launch and Build Reliability Hans Koenigsmann added yet another voice to the chorus, stating that he and SpaceX were extremely confident that all the physical hardware and software aspects of Crew Dragon would be ready to launch no later than January 7th.

Why so uncertain?

It’s impossible to fully delve into the complex political and bureaucratic intricacies of modern NASA, but the uncertainty within NASA and the deltas between NASA and SpaceX’s official statements can generally be explained by the simple fact that a number of critical final reviews have yet to be completed, reviews that will offer the final determination of when or if Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are ready to launch.

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Depending on the results of those readiness reviews, DM-1 could be given the go-ahead to launch in January or it could be delayed six months because NASA wants SpaceX to change a number of critical spacecraft systems, two extreme sides of what can be best described as a spectrum of possibilities.

In other words, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann and NASA’s Gerstenmaier and McCalister have since implied that they are confident that those final reviews will look favorably upon launch dates that approximate “ASAP”. Bridenstine, while technically the head of NASA, can thus be treated as a dissenting or outlier opinion in this case, presumably offering a worst-case-scenario of when SpaceX might be able to launch DM-1 if final reviews go very badly.

 

Bridenstine and Koenigsmann’s comments are worth looking at in a bit more depth, subtly but unequivocally pointing to the differences in opinion between NASA and SpaceX that clearly still float just beneath the public surface. Asked about Bridenstine’s suggestion that DM-1 could slip quite a bit, Koenigsmann offered a skeptical but levelheaded response:

“What I could see is a [slip of a] couple of days because of [Space Station] traffic. For example, CRS-16 (Cargo Dragon) is on station at the same time, lots of traffic, lots of crew time requirements, but our target is – at this point in time – mid-January, and we’re pushing as hard and [as diligently] as we can for this particular launch.”

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In fact, it appears that NASA and SpaceX concluded, around the same point in time, that a new target of January 17th was preferable to account for the logistical scheduling concerns highlighted by Hans in the above quote, allowing 10 extra days for the International Space Station (ISS) crew to complete other spacecraft operations before Crew Dragon’s planned arrival.

Crew Dragon approaches the ISS in this official SpaceX render. (SpaceX)

Even more intriguingly, local reporter Ken Kremer followed up with a question specifical triggered by Bridenstine’s suggestion (according to USA Today) that “challenges” with Crew Dragon’s landing parachutes were a leading factor in the unlikelihood of a January launch. Hans responded in his usual deadpan style:

“No; we’re working through issues, obviously, I mean every launch has things that we work through to make sure they work fine. [Dragon 2’s parachutes] actually have more redundancy than those on Dragon 1 and they are also [structurally] reinforced on Demo-1, so pretty sure [they’re] gonna be successful.”

Now we wait.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Tesla reveals it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin

there has never been an exact count of the Robotaxi fleet size, and Tesla continues to speak in cryptic fashion, only hinting at what the number of active vehicles could be.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla revealed that it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas, but has not yet disclosed the exact number of vehicles currently operating as driverless ride-hailing cars in the city.

Before Tesla launched the Robotaxi fleet in Austin on June 22, CEO Elon Musk stated that the fleet would be initially small, comprised of between ten and twenty vehicles in total.

The small fleet size was a way to limit rides and not overwhelm the company as it launched into a new territory: offering driverless rides to those looking to get around Austin. With safety being prioritized, it was understood.

However, there has never been an exact count of the Robotaxi fleet size, and Tesla continues to speak in cryptic fashion, only hinting at what the number of active vehicles could be.

On Tuesday, it expanded its geofence for the third time, increasing the service area in Austin beyond the downtown area and into the suburbs, including the airport and even the Gigafactory Texas.

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Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin

The size of the geofence is now 173 square miles, up from 91 square miles, which is what it grew to in early August with its second expansion.

The company also said it “increased the number of cars available by 50 percent,” but would not give an exact count:

Skeptics of the Robotaxi platform usually point to two things: the presence of a Safety Monitor in the vehicle and the lack of transparency regarding fleet size.

Tesla has done an excellent job of expanding the service area over the past two months, but it is also expanding the number of people it allows to hail a Robotaxi.

This makes the need for an increased fleet size more imperative.

However, no good reason comes to mind for the company not to tell an exact number, but Tesla has its justifications for it. Grok suggests the Robotaxi fleet could be anywhere from 30 to 75 vehicles in total, but this includes the Bay Area.

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Musk did say Tesla is working to get the Bay Area fleet to over 100 vehicles. Hopefully, some clarification regarding fleet size will be provided in the coming weeks or months as the service area in Austin continues to expand.

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Tesla China working overtime to deliver Model Y L as quickly as possible

This was, at least, hinted at by Tesla China VP Grace Tao in a post on Weibo.

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Credit: Tesla China

The Tesla Model Y L appears to be a big hit in China, and this has resulted in Giga Shanghai doing all it can to meet all the orders for the extended wheelbase all-electric crossover.

This was, at least, hinted at by Tesla China VP Grace Tao in a post on Weibo.

Model Y L demand

The demand for the Model Y L in China seems to be substantial. Just days following the vehicle’s release, industry watchers estimated that Tesla received about 35,000 orders for the vehicle on the day of its launch. More recent estimates from industry watchers have suggested that Tesla China might have doubled its usual vehicle orders for August thanks to the new variant.

Considering the seemingly strong demand for the new Model Y L, it was no surprise that Tesla China would be extremely busy trying to address all the orders for the vehicle. Fortunately, VP Grace Tao highlighted in her Weibo post that Tesla is pushing hard to ensure that deliveries of the extended wheelbase all-electric crossover could start as soon as possible.

“Our colleagues at the Shanghai Gigafactory are working overtime to get the new car to you as soon as possible,” the Tesla China executive wrote in her Weibo post. 

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Model Y L deliveries

When the Model Y L was initially released, Tesla China listed the vehicle’s first deliveries to be sometime in September 2025. As of writing, however, new orders of the new Model Y L are listed with an estimated delivery date of October 2025. This suggests that the Model Y L has been sold out for September

The new Model Y L has the potential to be a best-seller for the electric vehicle maker, thanks in part to its comfortable six-seat configuration and its reasonable starting price of RMB 339,000 ($47,180). 

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Elon Musk’s xAI and X file antitrust suit against Apple and OpenAI over AI exclusivity

The suit accuses the companies of violating antitrust rules by limiting competition in the AI sector.

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Credit: xAI/X

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI and social media platform X have filed a federal lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI. The suit accuses the companies of violating antitrust rules by limiting competition in the fast-growing AI sector.

The lawsuit

The lawsuit, filed on Monday, challenged Apple’s plan to integrate OpenAI’s ChatGPT into its devices. xAI argued that the partnership gives ChatGPT exclusive first-party access to hundreds of millions of iPhone users worldwide, providing an unfair landscape for competitors in the AI sector.

“As a result of the Apple-OpenAI deal, ChatGPT is not just the default — it is the only generative AI chatbot with a first-party integration into Apple’s smartphones,,” the lawsuit noted. The suit also stated that the deal would give OpenAI “exclusive access to billions of potential prompts.”

Musk’s filing describes the Apple-OpenAI agreement as an “unlawful” arrangement that unfairly disadvantages rivals and denies consumers choice. The complaint also accuses Apple of manipulating App Store rankings and delaying updates to disadvantage ChatGPT’s rivals, such as xAI’s very own Grok, as noted in a report from the Financial Times.

A broader feud

Musk’s move escalates an already contentious relationship with Apple and OpenAI. In 2022, he accused the iPhone maker of threatening to remove Twitter, now X, from its App Store, though he later resolved the “misunderstanding” with Apple CEO Tim Cook. 

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In 2023, Apple briefly paused advertising on X before resuming campaigns. Musk has also been outspoken against Apple’s 30% App Store commission.

OpenAI, for its part, has dismissed the claims in xAI and X’s lawsuit. In a comment, a spokesperson from the artificial intelligence startup stated that the suit was just part of Elon Musk’s tendency to harass the company. 

“This latest filing is consistent with Mr Musk’s ongoing pattern of harassment,” the OpenAI spokesperson stated.

Musk has had a turbulent relationship with OpenAI. Musk is a co-founder of the startup when it was launched as a nonprofit, though he left its board in 2018. Since then, Musk has been very critical of OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit entity. He has also escalated his rhetoric against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, whom he has called a “liar” several times.

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