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Tesla won’t slow despite Edmunds claim that loss of tax credit will “kill the U.S. EV market”
Edmunds has released a new study that claims the loss of federal tax credits for EV buyers is “likely to kill the U.S. EV market.” It goes on to say, “Without these credits, this market is likely to crash.” Edmunds bases its analysis on what happened when the state of Georgia repealed its EV incentive program in the middle of 2015. Not only did Georgia eliminate its EV incentive, it also imposed new fees on EV drivers designed to offset the loss of revenue the state experienced because cars with electric motors use less gasoline.
Up until then, Georgia gave every qualifying EV buyer a $5,000 credit — the largest in the nation. That was on top of the $7,500 federal tax credit and made buying an EV in Georgia a very attractive proposition. The biggest beneficiary was the Nissan LEAF. In June, 2015 — the last month the incentive was available — 1,008 of them were sold or leased. In July, after the rebate was no longer available, 66 cars were delivered.
Cars eligible for the state incentive accounted for up to 17% of the new car market in Georgia. Following the legislature’s decision to eliminate the credit, they have fallen to about 2% of sales. Note that is still higher than the percentage of EV sales in the US as a whole.
Should Tesla be concerned? Not really says the Motley Fool. Data compiled by IHS Markit and included in the Edmunds analysis shows a drop in sales of the Model S shortly after Georgia repealed its rebate but sales quickly recovered and have since gone on to set new records for the company in the Peachtree State.
The federal tax credit was originally a pump priming exercise intended to help EV manufacturers get started. The assumption Congress made when it first enacted the credit was that once a company had sold 200,000 cars with plugs, economies of scale would begin to kick in, making it possible to build and sell electrified cars profitably without government assistance.
Tesla is getting close to that figure and will surely pass it once the Model 3 gets into production this summer. After that, the federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles will begin to phase out. In addition, many people worry the Trump administration will kill the federal EV tax credit entirely. According to Edmunds, that means Tesla could suffer a dramatic decline in sales — at least in the US. Here’s why that won’t happen according to the Motley Fool.
Not so fast
First, any comparison between a 2015 Nissan LEAF and a 2018 Tesla Model 3 is a lopsided contest. The LEAF is a fine car but it suffers from a serious lack of range. Nor does it have any of the industry leading technology Tesla offers its customers. It relies on the CHAdeMO charging standard, which is rapidly losing ground to the CCS standard and the Tesla Supercharger network.
Red Tesla Model 3 at the vehicle unveiling event on March 31, 2016 from the company’s Hawthorne, CA Design Center.
Second, the base price of the Model 3 is $35,000, which happens to be very near the average selling price of a new passenger vehicle in the US market today. With or without incentives, the Model 3 will be highly competitive. With nearly 400,000 reservations worldwide, demand for the Model 3 is clearly not dependent on government financial incentives.
The real issue here is that electric car sales have not advanced as quickly as electric car advocates predicted. Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, and fear of the unknown have kept many people from buying an electric car, whether from Tesla or any other manufacturer. The “tipping point” when electric cars become the first choice of mainstream car buyers is tantalizingly close but still not here yet.
Reasonable people may disagree about the best way to promote electric cars. Paying people to buy them may not be as beneficial to society as subsidizing the infrastructure needed to charge them. The interstate highway system was a hugely expensive undertaking but it unleashed an unprecedented surge in US economic output. Today it is still the backbone of commerce in America. Putting the money used to fund the federal EV tax credit to work building the nation’s charging infrastructure could be a more efficient use of resources.
By any analysis, the Tesla phenomenon is not dependent on government incentives. It is based on building compelling electric automobiles that outperform the competition. Elon Musk deliberately chose to start at the top of the market to attract those who influence public opinion. That strategy is working and will continue to work even if the federal tax credit is eliminated entirely.
A Tesla Semi was involved in a fatal collision on U.S. Highway 50 in Dayton, Nevada, on Sunday, June 28, 2026, marking the first known fatal crash involving the electric Class 8 truck. The incident occurred around 7:20 a.m. at the intersection with Traditions Parkway, approximately 40 miles east of Reno and close to Tesla’s Gigafactory Nevada.
According to the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office and the Nevada State Police Highway Patrol, a semi-truck struck two passenger vehicles stopped at a traffic signal. The truck hit the vehicles from behind. Two people were pronounced dead at the scene, and a third person suffered life-threatening injuries and was flown to a hospital, Forbes reported.
Preliminary statements gathered at the scene by the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office suggested the truck driver may have fallen asleep at the wheel. However, the Nevada Highway Patrol, which is leading the investigation, stated that the official cause has not yet been determined.
Additional information is expected to be released early the following week. The truck was seized for evidence as part of the ongoing probe.
Responders at the scene included deputies from the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office, personnel from the Nevada Highway Patrol, Central Lyon County Fire Department, and the Nevada Department of Transportation. The crash led to the temporary closure of U.S. 50 in both directions.
The Tesla Semi is Tesla’s battery-electric heavy-duty truck, produced at the nearby Gigafactory in Nevada. Authorities initially described the vehicle as a semi-truck; its make was subsequently confirmed through reporting and scene identification; an interesting bit of information here, as the Semi is not yet available publicly and many do not know that Tesla builds electric trucks.
The investigation remains active, with no further official details on contributing factors or vehicle systems released as of early July 2026.
This incident highlights ongoing scrutiny of commercial vehicle safety on Nevada highways, particularly involving fatigue. Law enforcement continues to gather evidence and witness statements.
Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi program to Miami, Florida, marking the third state the autonomous ride-hailing platform has made its way to since launching last Summer.
Tesla announced today that the Robotaxi suite would now officially launch rides in a geofence in Miami:
🚨 Tesla’s “Long Weekend” continues with a HUGE announcement regarding Robotaxi!
It’s now in Miami!
Miami joins Austin, Dallas, Houston, and the Bay Area! https://t.co/ujjYjJT3Im pic.twitter.com/yPe1ZdSQIE
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 3, 2026
The first geofence in Miami covers approximately 10 to 14 square miles. The area appears to be focused on western and central Miami, including Miami International Airport (MIA). It also includes popular routes like SR 826 (Palmetto Expressway), US 41 (Tamiami Trail), and connectors such as SR 968, 953, 959, and 972.
This is Tesla’s initial Miami launch zone, smaller and more targeted than some competitors’ areas (for example, Waymo’s initial rollout was broader in eastern neighborhoods). It prioritizes high-traffic, airport-linked routes before wider expansion.
The expansion is a huge signal for Tesla that it is now operating in Florida, a heavy-traffic state with many tourist areas, including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, and the Boynton area, all of which are coastal and will attract perhaps millions of tourists in any given year.
¿Qué lo que Miami?
Robotaxi now available in Miami pic.twitter.com/P1m283seZU
— Tesla Robotaxi (@robotaxi) July 3, 2026
The Tesla Robotaxi network launched last year on June 22, in Austin, Texas, beginning limited commercial operations in that city. It expanded shortly thereafter into the San Francisco Bay Area of California in late July 2025, marking entry into a second state with service covering key areas such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Berkeley.
Full commercial service was achieved in Austin by November 18, 2025, strengthening its presence within Texas before further growth.
In 2026, the network continued expanding across Texas with the addition of Dallas and Houston on April 18, significantly broadening its footprint in the state. This new launch into Miami marks Tesla entering a new state and bringing active locations to include Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio in Texas, and the Bay Area in California.
These sequential expansions have steadily increased the network’s reach across major metropolitan areas in Texas, California, and Florida, focusing on scaling operations city by city and state by state since the initial Austin debut.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has tempered expectations for the company’s humanoid robot Optimus, emphasizing that initial production will ramp up slowly despite recent progress on the manufacturing line. In a July 1 reply on X, Musk responded to optimistic community speculation by stating, “No, Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car.”
No, Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
The comment came in response to a post theorizing that Tesla had accelerated Optimus V3 development and might soon unveil an impressive demonstration with multiple units already in meaningful production. Musk’s clarification highlights the fundamental differences between scaling a novel humanoid robot and Tesla’s established automotive operations, which benefit from over a century of refined supply chains, tooling, and processes.
Recent updates show tangible advancement. Musk shared a photo of himself walking the Optimus production line at Fremont, where Tesla is converting former Model S/X manufacturing space. According to Q1 2026 earnings commentary, limited production is slated to begin in late July or August 2026 on this converted line.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Musk previously noted that Optimus features roughly 10,000 unique parts, making early output rates “literally impossible to predict” and describing them as “quite slow.” A larger dedicated factory at Giga Texas is under construction, targeting higher-volume production around summer 2027 with long-term annual capacity potentially reaching millions of units.
Some experts point out that pioneering humanoid robotics demands inventing new automation techniques, actuator supply chains, and quality-control standards in real time. Unlike vehicles, where components and assembly methods are mature, every element of Optimus—from dexterous hands to AI-integrated movement—requires fresh engineering solutions. Early units are expected to handle simple factory tasks before expanding to more complex roles.
This cautious approach aligns with Tesla’s history of under-promising and over-delivering on complex technologies. While enthusiasts hoped for rapid deployment, Musk’s message underscores a deliberate strategy: prioritize reliability and iterative improvement over rushed volume.
Analysts suggest the S-curve ramp typical of new manufacturing will eventually accelerate once foundational issues are resolved, positioning Optimus as a potential trillion-dollar product line.
Musk has long envisioned Optimus transforming labor markets, assisting in homes, factories, and hazardous environments. By setting realistic timelines, Tesla aims to build sustainable momentum rather than risk disappointment. As the Fremont line comes online this summer, investors and fans will watch closely for the first production metrics and capability demonstrations.
Tesla Semi involved in first known fatal crash in Nevada
Tesla expands Robotaxi to Florida, marking its third state for autonomy
