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DeepSpace: NASA’s Europa Clipper suffers under SLS, Moon landers win funding, and Russia talks lunar ambitions

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7 years ago

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NASA's ambitious and exciting Europa Clipper mission is being held back by the joint NASA-Congress SLS rocket. (NASA/Teslarati)

Eric Ralph · June 4th, 2019

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week, Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.

In this week’s analysis, there is simply too much going on to focus on any single overarching theme. NASA awarded ~$250M to fund three commercial Moon landers, Russia revealed an impossibly ambitious schedule for its conceptual crewed Moon program, and NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) released a report that did not look kindly on the management of the Europa Clipper spacecraft’s supposed plans for an SLS rocket launch.

While it is increasingly clear that the 2020s are likely to be the most exciting period of spaceflight activity in decades, it remains equally clear that most of the world’s space exploration – despite the incredible results often produced – is poorly and inefficiently managed. Upsets may well be served by commercial hopefuls like SpaceX, Blue Origin, iSpace, and others, but we are likely set to witness another decade or so of wasteful, results-phobic human spaceflight efforts lead on a wild goose chase after NASA’s Moon return ambitions. If it ends up being anything like the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft it is being artificially locked to, the Moon return may eventually accomplish something approximately half a decade behind schedule after vacuuming up at least $10-20B of federal funding.

At the same time, the robotic exploration expertise of NASA, ESA, Japan (JAXA), China (CNSA), India (ISRO), and Russia (Roscosmos) will be thrown at a bevy of spacecraft and landers with destinations throughout the solar system.

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Europa Clipper deserves better ‘sails’

  • As of now, Congress has “mandated” that Europa Clipper and a planned Lander follow-up both launch on NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rockets. This was a political ploy by long-time supporter John Culberson (now a former US representative) meant to gain the support of Congressional gatekeepers focused on preserving SLS and Orion-related pork that feeds into their legislative districts or states (Sen. Shelby, Sen. Nelson, and others).
  • Developed by Lockheed Martin with the support of the European Space Agency (ESA), the Orion spacecraft is essentially an overweight, underpowered modern version of NASA’s Apollo Command and Service Module (CSM). Despite its mediocre capabilities, the spacecraft could theoretically be useful for NASA’s crewed exploration ambitions.
    • Sadly, Orion has been almost inextricably linked to NASA’s SLS rocket, built (for the most part) by Boeing and Aerojet Rocketdyne. Originally known as Ares V, the comparatively downsized SLS has always been meant to launch extremely large payloads. In theory, even the early SLS Block 1 (likely the only variant that will ever fly) would be capable of delivering ~25 metric tons to Mars and 6.3 mT directly to Jupiter.
  • That performance would also drastically cut the amount of time it takes Europa Clipper to travel from Earth to Jupiter from 6-7 years to about 3 years.
  • Hilariously, despite both Europa Clipper and SLS having been in development for years and the latter being legally required to launch the former, NASA still hasn’t verified (with certainty) that SLS Block 1 is actually capable of launching EC directly to Jupiter, the only benefit of SLS being the 3 years of time saved by a direct trajectory.
  • Even worse, despite mission delays that pushed Europa Clipper’s launch target from 2022 to 2023, NASA has yet to actually order new SLS boosters beyond the first two, assigned to Orion missions NET 2021 and 2022.
    • As NASA OIG notes, according to past estimates from NASA officials, the agency would need a minimum of 52 months (4.3 years) of lead time for Boeing and Aerojet Rocketdyne to build new SLS boosters. In other words, NASA would have had to order new boosters in September 2018 (8 months ago) for Europa Clipper to have a chance of launching on SLS in 2023.
  • Due to all of this absurd and avoidable uncertainty, large amounts of money and time are being wasted designing Europa Clipper to essentially be launcher-agnostic, able to fly on Falcon Heavy, Delta IV Heavy, or SLS. At this rate, it’s not even clear if a third SLS will be ready to launch Europa Clipper in 2024, barring a miraculously perfect performance during its launch debut (“Artemis-1”, formerly EM-1).

Dispatch from the Moon (bureaucracy)

  • Earlier this week, NASA announced its first truly Moon landing-focused contracts, awarding a total of $253M to OrbitBeyond, Astrobotic, and Intuitive Machines for commercially-developed Moon landers that could be ready for lunar landings as early as September 2020, July 2021, and July 2021, respectively.
    • Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines aim to deliver 90 kg and 100 kg of payload to the Moon’s surface, while OrbitBeyond is targeting ~40 kg despite receiving ~$25M more from NASA. Regardless, it has to be said that ~$250M is extremely cost-effective for the 230 kg (510 lb) worth of payloads it could deliver to the Moon. For comparison, in 2015, NASA purchased a single Delta IV Heavy launch (for its Parker Solar Probe) at a cost of almost $390M
    • Not only does that $250M include launch costs (two or even three of which will likely end up as copassengers on Falcon 9 launches), but it includes delivery to the surface of the Moon.
  • Additionally, an unknown proportion of that funding has clearly been directed towards the development and maturation of unflown and (mostly) unbuilt lunar landers, all of which could potentially offer even more affordable lunar delivery services once development is finished.
  • Finally, Russian space agency Roscosmos apparently has plans (or at least a Powerpoint) to land cosmonauts on the Moon as early as 2030. To accomplish that incredibly ambitious feat, Russia would effectively need to develop three entirely new rockets – two of which are far larger than anything Russia has built since the fall of the USSR – and a brand new crew and deep space-capable spacecraft (Federation).
  • The ambition is undeniably inspiring and could create a truly fascinating race-that-isn’t-really-a-race back to the Moon. However, the reality is that Russia as a country and economy is struggling, and those difficulties are obvious in Roscosmos – woefully underfunded and eternally tossed about as a political puck and source of easy embezzlement.
    • A Soyuz spacecraft launched to the ISS last year was found to have a literal hole in it, the likely result of sloppy manufacturing and nonexistent quality control. A few months later, a Soyuz 1.2 rocket failed mid-flight while launching a trio of astronauts, triggering the first human spaceflight abort/failure in almost two decades.
    • All three astronauts were safely recovered but those two failures alone suggest that Russia has some soul-searching a budget-tweaking to do before it has any chance of successfully (let alone safely) undertaking its ambitious lunar program.
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– Eric
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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale

Tesla said recently it plans to launch Robotaxi in Miami, Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Dallas.

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1 hour ago

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December 8, 2025

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Credit: Grok

Tesla has expanded Robotaxi app access once again, but this time, it’s on a much broader scale as the company is offering the opportunity for those outside of North America to download the app.

Tesla Robotaxi is the company’s early-stage ride-hailing platform that is active in Texas, California, and Arizona, with more expansion within the United States planned for the near future.

Tesla said recently it plans to launch Robotaxi in Miami, Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Dallas.

The platform has massive potential, and Tesla is leaning on it to be a major contributor to even more disruption in the passenger transportation industry. So far, it has driven over 550,000 miles in total, with the vast majority of this coming from the Bay Area and Austin.

First Look at Tesla’s Robotaxi App: features, design, and more

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However, Tesla is focusing primarily on rapid expansion, but most of this is reliant on the company’s ability to gain regulatory permission to operate the platform in various regions. The expansion plans go well outside of the U.S., as the company expanded the ability to download the app to more regions this past weekend.

So far, these are the areas it is available to download in:

  • Japan
  • Thailand
  • Hong Kong
  • South Korea
  • Australia
  • Taiwan
  • Macau
  • New Zealand
  • Mexico
  • U.S.
  • Canada

Right now, while Tesla is focusing primarily on expansion, it is also working on other goals that have to do with making it more widely available to customers who want to grab a ride from a driverless vehicle.

One of the biggest goals it has is to eliminate safety monitors from its vehicles, which it currently utilizes in Austin in the passenger’s seat and in the driver’s seat in the Bay Area.

A few weeks ago, Tesla started implementing a new in-cabin data-sharing system, which will help support teams assist riders without anyone in the front of the car.

Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers

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As Robotaxi expands into more regions, Tesla stands to gain tremendously through the deployment of the Full Self-Driving suite for personal cars, as well as driverless Robotaxis for those who are just hailing rides.

Things have gone well for Tesla in the early stages of the Robotaxi program, but expansion will truly be the test of how things operate going forward. Navigating local traffic laws and gaining approval from a regulatory standpoint will be the biggest hurdle to jump.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows

Published

3 hours ago

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December 8, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.

He wrote:

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“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”

Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.

Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.

He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:

“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”

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Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”

Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.

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Tesla Optimus dramatically collapses after teleoperator mishap

It seemed blatantly obvious that whoever was controlling the Optimus robot from behind the scenes did not disconnect their ability to manipulate its movements

Published

4 hours ago

on

December 8, 2025

By

Credit: @xdNiBoR | X

Tesla Optimus dramatically collapsed after a teleoperator mishap at the company’s “Future of Autonomy Visualized” event in Miami this past weekend.

It seemed blatantly obvious that whoever was controlling the Optimus robot from behind the scenes did not disconnect their ability to manipulate its movements, then left the controls, causing Optimus to collapse.

A video captured at the event shows Optimus doing a movement similar to taking a headset off, likely what the teleoperator uses to hear guest requests and communicate with other staff:

After the headset removal motion was completed, Optimus simply collapsed backward, making for an interesting bit of conversation. While it was a mishap, it was actually pretty funny to watch because of the drama displayed by the robot in the situation.

This was obviously a mistake made by the teleoperator, and does not appear to be a spot where we can put any sort of blame on Optimus. It would have likely just stood there and waited for controls to resume if the teleoperator had disconnected from the robot correctly.

However, details are pretty slim, and Tesla has not announced anything explaining the situation, likely because it seems to be a pretty face-value event.

Tesla Optimus shows off its newest capability as progress accelerates

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The Tesla Optimus program has been among the most hyped projects that the company has been working on, as CEO Elon Musk has extremely high hopes for what it could do for people on Earth. He has said on several occasions that Optimus should be the most popular product of all time, considering its capabilities.

Obviously, the project is still a work in progress, and growing pains are going to be part of the development of Optimus.

In its development of Optimus Gen 3, Tesla has been working on refining the forearm, hand, and fingers of Optimus, something that Musk said is extremely difficult. However, it’s a necessary step, especially if its capabilities will not be limited by hardware.

All in all, Optimus has still been a very successful project for Tesla, especially in the early stages. The company has done an excellent job of keeping Optimus busy, as it helps with serving customers at events and the Tesla Diner, and is also performing tasks across the company’s manufacturing plants.

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