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SpaceX urges Congress to expedite commercial spaceflight regulation reforms

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8 years ago

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Speaking in a Congressional hearing on the morning of June 26th, SpaceX Director of Government Affairs Caryn Schenewerk reaffirmed the company’s commitment to conducting “more than 25 [launches]” in 2018, a feat that will require a ~50% increase in launch frequency over the second half of the year.

Related to the focus of this particular hearing, namely regulatory reform, Representative Rick Larsen (WA-2) appeared to speak for everyone when he mirrored the four panelists’ sense of urgency for beginning the process of reforming federal space launch regulations by asking for an informal meeting outside the doors of the chamber once the session concluded, stating that “it’s that urgent.” In order for companies like SpaceX (and eventually Blue Origin) to be able to sustainably and reliably reach cadences of one launch per week in the near future, the currently cumbersome and dated launch licensing apparatus will almost invariably require significant reforms.

Pressure to remove artificial bottlenecks growing

Two primary problems were identified by the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), ULA, Blue Origin, and SpaceX officials present before the Congressional committee: the extreme sluggishness of licensing and the similarly obtuse brute-force integration of launch vehicle operations with the federal systems of air traffic control tasked with safely orchestrating tens of thousands of aircraft flights daily.

Whereas nominal orbital rocket launches result in vehicles like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 spending less than 90 seconds of real time within the bounds of that controlled airspace, the massive and disruptive “keep-out zones” currently required by the FAA for rocket launches frequently disrupt air traffic for more than 100 times as long. According to Ms. Schenewerk, SpaceX believes it already possesses the capabilities to integrate live Falcon 9 and Heavy telemetry with air traffic control, allowing those keep out zones to be dramatically compressed and highly responsive to actual launch operations, similar to how aircraft traffic is dealt with today.

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On the specific launch licensing side of this regulatory coin, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA all expressed distaste for current standards, in which a worst-case scenario could see a launch provider forced to wait more than 200 days (up to eight full months) from the moment of filing to a launch license grant. Worse, even slight adjustments to a granted launch license require launch providers to resubmit themselves to that 200+ day process, effectively making timely modifications undependable exceptions to the rule.

Old rules, new rockets

The real barrier to these common-sense regulatory reforms is quite simply the extraordinary sluggishness of the FAA and those tasked with updating its guidelines and regulatory structures. Rep. Larsen was not exaggerating when he stated that he foresaw Congress choosing to delay those reforms by another 5+ years if given the opportunity, and it was thus likely a relief for the panel of witnesses (PDF) to hear him agree that these reforms must be pursued with the utmost urgency. In its current state, the FAA’s launch licensing is liable to be utterly swamped by the imminent introduction of multiple new smallsat launch providers on top of the already lofty launch cadence ambitions of SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin, as well as Orbital ATK to a lesser extent.

With SpaceX leading the charge, the American launch industry is already a year or more into a true renaissance of American spaceflight, and the FAA is simply not equipped to handle it. If reforms can be completed with haste rarely seen in Congress, the federal government can at a minimum ensure that it does not become a wholly artificial and preventable bottleneck for that explosion of domestic spaceflight activity.

 

Speaking of that activity, SpaceX is scheduled to begin its H2 2018 manifest push with as many as six Falcon 9 launches (five with Block 5 boosters) over the next ~60 days. Barring an abrupt increase in rocket booster production speeds, sources have confirmed that those 2-3 summer months will likely also feature one of the first rapid Falcon 9 Block 5 reuses, potentially seeing one of SpaceX’s highly-reusable rockets complete two orbital launches in approximately one month (30-50 days). That will, of course, depend upon both customer agreeability and the availability of rockets and launch facilities, but the goal of a rapid Block 5 reuse before summer’s end still stands, at least for now.

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Up next is CRS-15, which will see the last orbital Block 4 Falcon 9 launch a flight-proven Cargo Dragon to the ISS with several thousand pounds of supplies in tow, with liftoff scheduled for NET 5:42 am EDT, June 29.

Follow us for live updates, peeks behind the scenes, and photos from Teslarati’s East and West Coast photographers.

Teslarati   –   Instagram – Twitter

Tom Cross – Twitter

Pauline Acalin – Twitter

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Eric Ralph – Twitter

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab

“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.

Published

7 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.

The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.

The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.

Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production

Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.

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It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.

Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”

As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.

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Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.

It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst

The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.

Published

9 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear. 

Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website. 

Normalized December Deliveries

Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.

“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.

“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“

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Tesla’s United States market share

Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States. 

“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter.  For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.

“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’

“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.

Published

9 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”

Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.

Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report

Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.

In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.

However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:

“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”

It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.

While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.

Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.

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