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SpaceX backup Starship reaches full height after nosecone installation
SpaceX has installed another Starship’s nosecone, all but completing the second full-size prototype a matter of days before the first fully-assembled Starship’s risky launch debut.
Over the last two months, SpaceX has effectively put Starship number 8 (SN8) through an almost nonstop series of tests, completing at least four separate cryogenic proof tests, four Raptor engine static fires, and much more. The company’s South Texas team have also dodged an array of technical bugs; installed, plumbed, and wired what amounts to ~40% of Starship (the nose section) while fully exposed to the coastal elements; and even narrowly avoided a potentially catastrophic failure.
In spite of the many hurdles thrown up and delays resultant, CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this week that Starship SN8 is scheduled to attempt its 15-kilometer (~50,000 ft) launch debut as early as Monday, November 30th. Musk, however, does not see success as the most probable outcome.
Why, then, push to launch Starship SN8 when, in Musk’s own words, the probability of success is as low as “33%”? As previously discussed many times in the history of Teslarati’s BFR and Starship coverage, SpaceX’s attitude towards technology development is (unfortunately) relatively unique in the aerospace industry. While once a backbone of major parts of NASA’s Apollo Program moonshot, modern aerospace companies simply do not take risks, instead choosing a systems engineering methodology and waterfall-style development approach, attempting to understand and design out every single problem to ensure success on the first try.
The result: extremely predictable, conservative solutions that take huge sums of money and time to field but yield excellent reliability and all but guarantee moderate success. SpaceX, on the other hand, borrows from early US and German rocket groups and, more recently, software companies to end up with a development approach that prioritizes efficiency, speed, and extensive testing, forever pushing the envelope and thus continually improving whatever is built.
In the early stages of any program, the results of that approach can look extremely unusual and rudimentary without context (i.e. Starhopper, above), but building and testing a minimum viable product or prototype is a very intentional foundation. Particularly at the start, those minimal prototypes are extremely cheap and almost singularly focused on narrowing a vast range of design options to something more palatable. As those prototypes rapidly teach their builders what the right and wrong questions and design decisions are, more focused and refined prototypes are simultaneously built and tested.
Done well, the agile approach is often quite similar to evolution, where prototype failures inform necessary design changes and killing off dead-end strategies, designs, and assumptions before they can be built upon. In many cases, compared to cautious waterfall-style development, it will even produce results that are both better, cheaper, and faster to realize. SpaceX’s Starship program is perhaps the most visible example in history, made all the more interesting and controversial by the fact that it’s still somewhere in between its early, chaotic development phase and a clear path to a viable product.
On the build side of things, SpaceX has created a truly incredible ad hoc factory from next to nothing, succeeding to the point that the company is now arguably testing and pushing the envelope too slowly. As of November 2020, no fewer than eight full-size Starships and the first Super Heavy booster prototype are visibly under construction. Most recently, Starship SN9 was stacked to its full height, kicking off nosecone installation while still at the build site (unlike SN8). SN10’s completed tank section is likely ready to begin flap installation within the next few days, while Starship SN11 is perhaps a week or two behind that. Additionally, large tank sections of Starships SN12, SN13, SN14, SN15, and (most likely) SN16 are already completed and have all been spotted in the last few weeks.
Some ~90% of the above work was likely started after Starship SN8 first left the factory and rolled to the launch pad on September 26th. In many regards, SN8 has been the first to reach multiple major milestones, largely explaining the relatively plodding pace of its test program compared to SN4, SN5, and SN6.
Ultimately, SN9’s imminent completion – effectively a superior, more refined copy of SN8 – means that Starship SN8’s utility to SpaceX is rapidly deteriorating. The company would almost assuredly never skip an opportunity to learn, meaning that there’s no plausible future in which SN8 testing doesn’t continue, but that doesn’t mean that SpaceX can’t turn its risk tolerance to 11. In essence, accept a 67% (or higher) chance of Starship SN8’s violent destruction but learn as much as possible in the process. As long as good data is gathered, SN8’s launch debut will be a success for Starship whether the rocket lands in one or several pieces.
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Tesla FSD V14 gets tentative release date
The update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.
Tesla is not releasing Unsupervised FSD to regular customers yet, but the company seems to be preparing something special for its FSD users nonetheless.
This was, at least, according to Elon Musk in a recent post on X.
Tesla FSD V14
Tesla’s FSD program has been deemed by Elon Musk as one of the key factors that would determine the company’s long term success. Over the past months, however, Tesla has mostly been focusing on the rollout and ramp of its Robotaxi program in Austin and the Bay Area. Tesla’s Robotaxi service uses Unsupervised FSD, which is not yet released to customers.
However, in a post on X, Musk stated that Tesla is preparing its next big update for its consumer-grade FSD system—V14. Musk did not provide a lot of details about FSD V14’s capabilities, but the CEO did state that the update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.
“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla Unsupervised FSD Rollout
During the second quarter earnings call, Tesla executives were asked for a timeline on the rollout of Unsupervised FSD to consumer vehicles. In his reply, Musk stated that he believes Unsupervised FSD will be available for consumers in certain geographies. He did explain that Tesla will be extra careful with the system’s release.
“We are getting there. I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies. We are just being very careful about it. This is not something we should rush,” Musk said, adding that “I am confident that by this year, within a number of cities in the US, it will be available to end users.
News
Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026
The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year.
Elon Musk has reaffirmed the Tesla Semi’s mass production date. He mentioned the update in a post on social media platform X during the weekend.
Tesla Semi Factory
The Tesla Semi was initially unveiled in late 2017, and its first deliveries were held in December 2022. Since then, Tesla has only been delivering the Semi to a handful of customers while it builds a dedicated factory for the Class 8 all-electric truck near its Giga Nevada facility.
Drone flyovers of the Tesla Semi factory over the past months have suggested that progress in the construction of the facility has been steady. More recent flyovers have even suggested that Tesla is now busy outfitting the facility with the necessary equipment for the mass production of the Semi.
Elon Musk’s Recent Comments
In a recent comment on X, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that the Semi was indeed expected to be mass produced in 2026. Musk shared his update as a response to a Tesla bull who recalled that Bill Gates did not believe that the Semi was feasible due to the limitations of battery technology. In his response, Musk posted a laughing emoji together with “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.”
The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year. While this number may not be attained by the facility right out of the gate, it would only be a matter of time before the factory manages to hit an optimal production rate.
In a video posted on social media earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla stated that the company is preparing for volume production over the coming quarters. With such a pace, the factory should be able to mass produce the Semi in 2026.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor
Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products.
Earlier this week, reports emerged stating that Tesla has stepped back from its Project Dojo initiative. While the reports were initially framed as a negative development for the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous driving efforts, CEO Elon Musk later noted on X that Tesla was indeed halting its Dojo initiative.
Elon Musk’s Confirmation
As per Musk, Tesla was shuttering Project Dojo because it does not make sense for the company to divide its resources and scale two different AI chip designs. Dojo, after all, is designed to train the company’s autonomous driving program, and thus, it would not be rolled out to Tesla’s consumer products.
In a series of posts on X, Musk stated that it would make sense to just use Tesla’s AI5/AI6 to train its FSD and Autopilot systems. “In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude,” Musk said.
Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products, from Optimus to the Cybercab to the next-generation Roadster.
AI6 is Dojo’s Successor
What was particularly interesting about Musk’s comment was his mention of using AI5/AI6 chips for training. As per Musk, this strategy could be seen as “Dojo 3” in a way, since the performance of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips is already notable. Musk’s comment about using AI6 chips for training caught the eye of many, including Apple and Rivian alumnus Phil Beisel, who noted that “AI6 is now Dojo.”
“Dojo is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer, built around a custom chip known as the D1. The D1 and AI5/AI6 share many core design elements, particularly the math operations used in neural networks (e.g., matrix multiplication) and highly parallel processing.
“Dojo had a unique feature: chips arranged in a 5×5 grid using a system-on-wafer design, with etched interconnects enabling high-speed data transfer. In a sense, Dojo will live on as the generalized AI6. Going forward, all efforts will focus on AI6,” the tech veteran wrote in a post on X.
Elon Musk confirmed the Apple alumnus’ musings, with the CEO responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk is evidently excited for Tesla’s AI6 chip, which is expected to produced by Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility. In a post on X, Musk stated that he would personally be walking Samsung’s line to accelerate the output of Tesla’s AI6 computers.
Tesla FSD V14 gets tentative release date
Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026
Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor
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