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SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy manifest grows lopsided as launches align for Q4

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For a variety of reasons both clear or otherwise, a significant number of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches initially scheduled near the beginning or middle of the second half of 2018 are all slipping right into October, November, and December.

While communications satellite Telstar 18V’s two-week slip to NET September 8 and SAOCOM-1A’s own several-week tumble to October 7th appear to have their own respective and discernible reasons, namely some sort of range or payload issue (Telstar) and difficulties with the Falcon 9 rocket (SAOCOM), it’s much harder to know why multiple other payloads have slipped into late 2018.

Although the multiple slips and slides of several payloads and much of SpaceX’s H2 2018 launch manifest may be hard to parse alongside the year’s milestone first half, at least two reliable launch manifest sources (SpaceflightNow and one other) more or less independently corroborate the apparent realignment. Explanations, however, are far harder to find – to be expected in the business of space launch. Still, multiple launch delays can be traced to either payload or rocket issues.

Payload-side delays aplenty but rocket-slips, too

Iridium CEO Matt Desch, for example, noted that his company’s Iridium NEXT-8 launch of the constellation’s final 10 satellites is slipping from its original launch date target because of delays preparing the satellites for launch, rather than any issue with SpaceX rocket availability. While not official, the Falcon 9 launch of communications satellite Es’hail-2 has also rapidly jumped from the end of August or early September into Q4 2018 (likely NET October or November), hinting heavily at payload processing delays or technical issues with the complex satellite, as multi-month rocket-side delays would likely preclude interim September and October launches.

Meanwhile, at least two of those prospective Q4 2018 SpaceX launches happen to be rideshare-dedicated, meaning that the payload consists of dozens of smaller satellites manifested and organized by a middleman company or agency. These two launches are Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch (~70 satellites) – currently NET November 2018 – and the US Air Force-led STP-2 mission, designed primarily to help SpaceX certify Falcon Heavy for Air Force launches while also placing roughly two dozen smaller satellites into orbit. STP-2 was delayed for multiple years as SpaceX gradually paced towards Falcon Heavy’s first real launch debut (February 2018), but launch delays (currently NET November 30 2018, probably 2019) will likely be caused by some combination of rocket, payload, and pad delays as SpaceX readies for what is essentially the second debut of much different Falcon Heavy.

While likely less a payload-side delay than a mountain-of-tedious-paperwork-and-bureaucracy delay, SpaceX’s NET November 2018 inaugural (uncrewed) demonstration launch of Crew Dragon, NASA scheduling documents published alongside an August 27 Advisory Council presentation suggest that the spacecraft will be ready for launch as early as September, whereas independent sources and visual observations have confirmed that the new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster (B1051) is either near the end or fully done with its McGregor, Texas acceptance testing. One certainly cannot blame SpaceX or NASA for caution at this stage, but the consequently uncertain launch debut of Crew Dragon almost certainly precludes any Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A in the interim, including STP-2’s theoretical NET November 30 launch date, which is literally inside Crew Dragon’s “November 2018” launch target.

 

On the other hand, several recent delays of SpaceX’s imminent (-ish) launch of Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM-1A have been suggested by several employees of the country’s CONAE space agency to be rocket-related, as they understand that the satellite itself is effectively ready to head to orbit at any time. It has yet to be officially confirmed, but it’s understood that Falcon 9 B1048 – previously flown on the launch of Iridium-7 – is being refurbished for SAOCOM-1A, potentially contributing to launch delays as SpaceX cautiously works through the inaugural reuses of some of its very first serial Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters.

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Time will soon tell, as launching the roughly 8 to 10 launches tentatively remaining on SpaceX’s 2018 manifest will require extensive reuse of Block 5 boosters if multiple slips into 2019 are to be prevented. Regardless, best of luck to SpaceX’s technicians and engineers as they beat back rocket demons, grapple with uncooperative satellite payloads, and navigate the winding paths of Department of Defense and NASA rocket launch certifications.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla owners doxxed by controversial anti-DOGE website in clear intimidation tactic

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Credit: CBS Colorado

Tesla owners are being doxxed by a controversial anti-DOGE website in what it called an act to “empower creative expressions of protest.”

Dogequest, a website that has been created with a clearly outlined use for intimidation against Tesla owners, posted the names, addresses, phone numbers, and other contact information of those who own vehicles made by the electric vehicle manufacturer.

It was spotted by 404 Media.

The site also claims to have the information of employees at the Department of Government Efficiency, as well as the addresses of Tesla dealerships and the locations of Tesla Superchargers. The latter two are public information.

However, the website is hoping to get Tesla owners to sell their vehicles in this evident intimidation tactic. However, the information on the website, while it was seen, was not verified to prove that it contained the information of real-world Tesla owners. The site was not accessible by Teslarati at the time of publication.

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The creation of a site like Dogequest is just another level that anti-Elon Musk activists are taking to attempt to destroy a company like Tesla as its CEO works with the Trump Administration to eliminate excessive government spending through the work of DOGE.

It is also the latest attack on Tesla owners, who have seen their vehicles vandalized, damaged, and even destroyed by those who disagree with the actions of Musk.

Tesla as a company has also seen several acts of retaliation against it, as everything from the arson of its showrooms and vehicles to it being kicked from the popular Vancouver Auto Show have come as a result of the recent backlash against the company.

Moving forward, there are still questions surrounding how these attacks will be combatted. The Trump Administration has indicated that acts of vandalism against Tesla would be considered a federal crime, but the tricky part of locating the culprits has proven to be extremely difficult. Only a handful have been found and held accountable.

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Tesla gets an upgrade on ‘upcoming material catalysts’

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tesla model y in white
(Source: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received an upgraded rating on its shares from Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who recently took a trip to Austin to visit the company’s data centers and production lines ahead of several high-profile product launches set for this year.

It was a bold move, especially considering Tesla shares are under immense pressure currently, fending off negative news regarding the company’s sentiment and potentially lower-than-expected delivery figures due to the launch of a new version of its most popular vehicle, the Model Y.

However, the bulls on Wall Street are still considering Tesla to be a safe play, especially considering its robust presence in various industries, including automotive, energy, and AI/Robotics.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note that, during a recent visit to Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the production line at Gigafactory Texas, it was clear there is a lot of potential and runway for Tesla in 2025:

“On 3/18, we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin, followed by CA later in 2025). With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YRD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts. Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged. Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Catalysts.”

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Sheppard went on to mention the catalysts, which he believes are the Robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, along with the continued rollout of Full Self-Driving in China, the eventual rollout of FSD in Europe, and the introduction of the affordable models in the first half of this year, and those were just on the automotive side.

There are several others, including Optimus, growth in the energy division, and in the longer term, the Semi.

In terms of potential weaknesses, Sheppard expects the likely removal of the EV tax credit and some of its growth to be offset by tariffs as the two big things that stand in the way of even more growth for the company.

Tesla is up over 5 percent on Wednesday, trading at $236.86.

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Tesla kicked from popular auto show as event succumbs to protest pressure

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Credit: Sawyer Merritt/X

Tesla has been kicked from a popular automotive show as the organizers of the massive event have succumbed to the pressure of protestors and others who oppose the electric vehicle maker.

The Vancouver Auto Show in Canada announced that it would not allow Tesla to establish a presence at the event this year, citing concerns about potential disruption from protestors and others who have been vocal about their distaste for the company and its CEO, Elon Musk.

Eric Nicholl, executive director of the Vancouver Auto International Show, said (via The Hill):

“The Vancouver Auto Show’s primary concern is the safety of attendees, exhibitors, and staff. This decision will ensure all attendees can be solely focused on enjoying the many positive elements of the event.”

Tesla was reportedly given several opportunities to voluntarily withdraw from the Vancouver Auto Show. The company evidently declined these invitations. Reps of the event itself then took it into their own hands, stating that the company would not be welcome at the event any longer.

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Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump Administration seems to be the main culprit for so much pushback from the opposition.

Protest groups and organizers have put together various acts of opposition against Tesla, some more reasonable than others, in an effort to show their distaste for the company and Musk. However, many of these acts have turned violent, resulting in the vandalism or even the total destruction of vehicles. It’s one thing to use your right to protest, and it’s another to destroy people’s personal vehicles or property that belongs to the automaker.

The decision by the Vancouver Auto Show sets a dangerous precedent that the violence and destruction tactics used by groups that oppose Tesla will work. Ultimately, people’s safety is most important, but there is the impression that shows will not take the proper precautions to ensure that all companies are able to show off their products and tech at the event.

This could have been resolved with other strategies, and axing Tesla from the show altogether could result in some fans boycotting the show altogether.

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