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SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy manifest grows lopsided as launches align for Q4

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For a variety of reasons both clear or otherwise, a significant number of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches initially scheduled near the beginning or middle of the second half of 2018 are all slipping right into October, November, and December.

While communications satellite Telstar 18V’s two-week slip to NET September 8 and SAOCOM-1A’s own several-week tumble to October 7th appear to have their own respective and discernible reasons, namely some sort of range or payload issue (Telstar) and difficulties with the Falcon 9 rocket (SAOCOM), it’s much harder to know why multiple other payloads have slipped into late 2018.

Although the multiple slips and slides of several payloads and much of SpaceX’s H2 2018 launch manifest may be hard to parse alongside the year’s milestone first half, at least two reliable launch manifest sources (SpaceflightNow and one other) more or less independently corroborate the apparent realignment. Explanations, however, are far harder to find – to be expected in the business of space launch. Still, multiple launch delays can be traced to either payload or rocket issues.

Payload-side delays aplenty but rocket-slips, too

Iridium CEO Matt Desch, for example, noted that his company’s Iridium NEXT-8 launch of the constellation’s final 10 satellites is slipping from its original launch date target because of delays preparing the satellites for launch, rather than any issue with SpaceX rocket availability. While not official, the Falcon 9 launch of communications satellite Es’hail-2 has also rapidly jumped from the end of August or early September into Q4 2018 (likely NET October or November), hinting heavily at payload processing delays or technical issues with the complex satellite, as multi-month rocket-side delays would likely preclude interim September and October launches.

Meanwhile, at least two of those prospective Q4 2018 SpaceX launches happen to be rideshare-dedicated, meaning that the payload consists of dozens of smaller satellites manifested and organized by a middleman company or agency. These two launches are Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch (~70 satellites) – currently NET November 2018 – and the US Air Force-led STP-2 mission, designed primarily to help SpaceX certify Falcon Heavy for Air Force launches while also placing roughly two dozen smaller satellites into orbit. STP-2 was delayed for multiple years as SpaceX gradually paced towards Falcon Heavy’s first real launch debut (February 2018), but launch delays (currently NET November 30 2018, probably 2019) will likely be caused by some combination of rocket, payload, and pad delays as SpaceX readies for what is essentially the second debut of much different Falcon Heavy.

While likely less a payload-side delay than a mountain-of-tedious-paperwork-and-bureaucracy delay, SpaceX’s NET November 2018 inaugural (uncrewed) demonstration launch of Crew Dragon, NASA scheduling documents published alongside an August 27 Advisory Council presentation suggest that the spacecraft will be ready for launch as early as September, whereas independent sources and visual observations have confirmed that the new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster (B1051) is either near the end or fully done with its McGregor, Texas acceptance testing. One certainly cannot blame SpaceX or NASA for caution at this stage, but the consequently uncertain launch debut of Crew Dragon almost certainly precludes any Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A in the interim, including STP-2’s theoretical NET November 30 launch date, which is literally inside Crew Dragon’s “November 2018” launch target.

 

On the other hand, several recent delays of SpaceX’s imminent (-ish) launch of Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM-1A have been suggested by several employees of the country’s CONAE space agency to be rocket-related, as they understand that the satellite itself is effectively ready to head to orbit at any time. It has yet to be officially confirmed, but it’s understood that Falcon 9 B1048 – previously flown on the launch of Iridium-7 – is being refurbished for SAOCOM-1A, potentially contributing to launch delays as SpaceX cautiously works through the inaugural reuses of some of its very first serial Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters.

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Time will soon tell, as launching the roughly 8 to 10 launches tentatively remaining on SpaceX’s 2018 manifest will require extensive reuse of Block 5 boosters if multiple slips into 2019 are to be prevented. Regardless, best of luck to SpaceX’s technicians and engineers as they beat back rocket demons, grapple with uncooperative satellite payloads, and navigate the winding paths of Department of Defense and NASA rocket launch certifications.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Model Y and Model 3 dominate U.S. EV sales despite headwinds

Tesla’s two mainstream vehicles accounted for more than 40% of all EVs sold in the United States in Q2 2025.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 remained the top-selling electric vehicles in the U.S. during Q2 2025, even as the broader EV market dipped 6.3% year-over-year. 

The Model Y logged 86,120 units sold, followed by the Model 3 at 48,803. This means that Tesla’s two mainstream vehicles accounted for 43% of all EVs sold in the United States during the second quarter, as per data from Cox Automotive.

Tesla leads amid tax credit uncertainty and a tough first half

Tesla’s performance in Q2 is notable given a series of hurdles earlier in the year. The company temporarily paused Model Y deliveries in Q1 as it transitioned to the production of the new Model Y, and its retail presence was hit by protests and vandalism tied to political backlash against CEO Elon Musk. The fallout carried into Q2, yet Tesla’s two mass-market vehicles still outsold the next eight EVs combined. 

Q2 marked just the third-ever YoY decline in quarterly EV sales, totaling 310,839 units. Electric vehicle sales, however, were still up 4.9% from Q1 and reached a record 607,089 units in the first half of 2025. Analysts also expect a surge in Q3 as buyers rush to qualify for federal EV tax credits before they expire on October 1, Cox Automotive noted in a post.

Legacy rivals gain ground, but Tesla holds its commanding lead

General Motors more than doubled its EV volume in the first half of 2025, selling over 78,000 units and boosting its EV market share to 12.9%. Chevrolet became the second-best-selling EV brand, pushing GM past Ford and Hyundai. Tesla, however, still retained a commanding 44.7% electric vehicle market share despite a 12% drop in in Q2 revenue, following a decline of almost 9% in Q1.

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Incentives reached record highs in Q2, averaging 14.8% of transaction prices, roughly $8,500 per vehicle. As government support winds down, the used EV market is also gaining momentum, with over 100,000 used EVs sold in Q2.

Q2 2025 Kelley Blue Book EV Sales Report by Simon Alvarez on Scribd

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Tesla China weekly insurance registrations surge 145% amid strong June results

The results follow Tesla’s solid June performance in China.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla China saw 12,300 new vehicle insurance registrations in the week of July 7-13, marking a 145% increase from the prior week’s 5,010 registrations. The surge seems to be bolstered by strong domestic demand for Tesla’s two mainstream vehicles, the Model Y crossover and the Model 3 sedan.

The results follow Tesla’s solid June performance in China, where it sold over 71,000 vehicles wholesale and introduced minor upgrades to its long-range variants.

Model Y leads weekly registrations

Of the 12,300 vehicles registered for insurance last week, more than 9,400 were Model Y crossovers and over 2,800 were Model 3 sedans, as noted in a CNEV Post report. Both vehicles are built at Tesla’s Giga Shanghai, which serves as the electric vehicle maker’s primary vehicle export hub.

Tesla introduced minor upgrades to the long-range Model 3 and Model Y on July 1. The Model 3 received a slight price increase, while Model Y pricing remained unchanged. This suggested that the Model Y is seeing continued consumer interest in the domestic Chinese market.

June sales reflect stable domestic demand

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla delivered 71,599 vehicles in June. That’s a 0.83% year-over-year increase from June 2024 and a 16.12% jump from May. Of those, 61,484 units were sold locally, marking the second-highest domestic monthly total this year after March’s 74,127 units.

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However, exports declined in June, with 10,115 vehicles shipped abroad, down 13.89% from the 11,746 vehicles exported a year ago and 56.16% from the 23,074 that were exported in May. The export dip suggests a stronger domestic focus last month, potentially driven by local promotions or strategic inventory shifts.

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Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion wasn’t a joke, it was a warning to competitors

Tesla might have made a joke with its first Robotaxi service area expansion, but it was truly a serious warning to its competitors.

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Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion occurred for the first time on Monday, and while the shape of its new service area might be “cocky,” it surely is not a joke. It’s a warning to competitors.

Robotaxi skeptics and Tesla opponents are sitting around throwing hate toward the company’s expansion appearance. Some called it “unserious,” and others say it’s “immature.” The reality is that it has a real meaning that goes much further than the company’s lighthearted and comical attitude toward things.

For context, Tesla has routinely used the number 69 as a way to price things it sells. 420 is another, an ode to cannabis culture. A few years back, it actually priced its Model S flagship sedan at $69,420. The first rides of the Robotaxi fleet were priced at $4.20. They are now being increased to $6.90.

Some call it childish. Others call it fun. The truth is, nobody is doing it this way.

Tesla updates Robotaxi app with several big changes, including wider service area

But today’s expansion of the Robotaxi service area in Austin is different. Tesla did not expand its shape to different neighborhoods or areas of the City of Austin. It did not expand it by broadening the rectangle that was initially available. Instead, it chose a different strategy, simply because it could:

Tesla could have done anything. It could have expanded in any direction, in any way, but it chose this simply because it has gotten Robotaxi to the point that it can broaden its service area in any direction. It chose this shape because it could.

Other companies might not have the same ability. Of course, many companies probably would not do this even if it could, simply because of the optics. Tesla doesn’t have those concerns; it has been open about its ability to be funny, and yes, immature, at times.

But in reality, it was a stark warning to competitors. “We can go anywhere in Austin, at any time, and we’re confident enough to make a joke about it.”

Tesla’s Robotaxi geofence in Austin grows, and its shape is hard to ignore

As Tesla is already aiming to expand to new states and high-population areas, and with applications filed in Arizona and California, Robotaxi will be in new regions in the coming weeks or months.

For now, it remains in Austin, and Tesla is sending a message to other companies that it is ready to go in any direction. The driverless Robotaxi fleet, bolstered by billions of miles of data, is ready to roam without anyone at the wheel.

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