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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy flies a complex mission for the Air Force in launch video
SpaceX has gone to unique lengths for the third launch of its Falcon Heavy rocket and made an exhaustive webpage dedicated to the mission, reviewing its importance to SpaceX and the United States and discussing most of its 23 manifested spacecraft.
Known as the US Air Force’s Space Test Program 2 (STP-2) mission, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 will be a critical pathfinder for the US military’s systematic utilization of both Falcon Heavy and its flight-proven boosters.
The STP-2 mission will be among the most challenging launches in SpaceX history with four separate upper-stage engine burns, three separate deployment orbits, a final propulsive passivation maneuver and a total mission duration of over six hours. [It] will demonstrate the capabilities of the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle and provide critical data supporting certification for future National Security Space Launch (NSSL) missions. In addition, [the USAF] will use this mission as a pathfinder for the [military’s systematic utilization of flight-proven] launch vehicle boosters.
SpaceX, April 2019
SpaceX offers a very effective summary of the various challenges presented by Falcon Heavy’s STP-2 mission and third launch. It’s as challenging as it is for one very specific and largely artificial reason. All the way back in 2012, the USAF contracted the launch to give SpaceX a low-risk opportunity to demonstrate specific capabilities the military branch requires before they certify a given rocket to launch high-value payloads. Originally intended to fly STP-2 in mid-2015, Falcon Heavy suffered almost five years of delays during its development, caused by a combination of unexpected technical difficulties and two catastrophic Falcon 9 failures in 2015 and 2016.
After spending the whole of 2017 gradually catching up on delayed customer launches, SpaceX successfully conducted Falcon Heavy’s launch debut on February 6th, 2018. Four months later, the Air Force announced that it had completed the SpaceX rocket’s preliminary certification and awarded the company a $130M launch contract for AFSPC-52, a classified military satellite. According to documents describing the mission, the satellite weighs approximately 6350 kg (~14,000 lb) and needs to be placed into a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) measuring 35,188km X 185km (21,850 mi X 115 mi).
Conveniently, Falcon Heavy’s commercial launch debut saw the massive rocket deliver the communications satellite Arabsat 6A – weighing ~6450 kg (~14,200 lb) – into an extremely high GTO, almost 90,000 km X 330 km (56,000 mi X 205 mi). In simpler terms, Falcon Heavy Flight 2 was an almost perfect demonstration that SpaceX is more than capable of successfully launching AFSPC-52, a milestone that could come as early as H2 2020.
The STP-2 mission should help to boost the US military’s confidence in Falcon Heavy even further. The mission is comprised of 23 separate satellites from a dozen or so different groups, ranging from a NOAA weather satellite constellation to a NASA-built atomic clock. The purpose of such a varied range of payloads is to have SpaceX’s Falcon upper stage (S2) place three separate sets into three distinctly different Earth orbits, a challenge that will require the rocket to ignite its Merlin Vacuum engine four times and survive in space for more than six hours.
SpaceX has been testing this critical long-coast technology since at least February 2018, when Falcon Heavy’s debut included a six-hour coast of the upper stage to send a Tesla Roadster on an Earth escape trajectory. SpaceX completed that test successfully and said Roadster is now orbiting the sun on a trajectory that regularly reaches beyond the orbit of Mars. SpaceX has continued to test the longevity of its universal Falcon upper stage, including a handful of on-orbit demonstrations after completing customer missions.
Aside from opening the door for new areas of competition in military launch procurement, successfully proving the long-coast capabilities of the Falcon upper stage will also mean that SpaceX can offer them commercially. Military launches often require long coasts in order to get spacecraft to their operating orbits as quickly as possible, typically involving an upper stage burning at the top of a transfer orbit to circularize said orbit. This capability can also be of significant value to non-government customers, however, as the faster a satellite can get to its operational orbit, the faster its owner can start using it to generate revenue. Traditionally, most commercial geostationary communications satellites are sent to transfer orbits, raising one end of the orbit (apogee) but leaving the low end (perigee) in low Earth orbit. Satellites then use their own propulsion systems to circularize their orbits before they can begin commercial operations.
It’s safe to assume that SpaceX is interested in commercially offering services like those above to make Falcon Heavy even more competitive with the likes of ULA’s Atlas/Delta/Vulcan rockets and Arianespace’s Ariane 5 and Ariane 6. The US military will almost certainly be the anchor customer, but a reliable upper stage with long-coast capabilities may one day allow Falcon Heavy to routinely launch commercial satellites directly into circular orbits or send flagship NASA spacecraft into deep space. But first, STP-2. According to Taiwan space agency NSPO, involved in the mission through their Formosat-7 constellation (also known as NOAA’s COSMIC-2), Falcon Heavy could launch STP-2 as early as June 22nd.
SpaceX’s dedicated STP-2 webpage can be viewed here.
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Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
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Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
