News
Report: SpaceX to launch at least five back-to-back Crew Dragon missions for NASA
Update: Wasting no time at all, NASA has confirmed the Ars Technica report one day later, announcing that rookie astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada have been reassigned from Boeing Starliner missions to SpaceX’s Crew-5 Crew Dragon launch – currently no earlier than August 2022.
Ars Technica’s Eric Berger reports that NASA has begun the process of moving a number of astronauts assigned to Boeing’s ailing Starliner spacecraft to a SpaceX Crew Dragon mission scheduled no earlier than August 2022.
Per sources close to Berger, NASA has chosen to reassign two rookie astronauts to Crew Dragon as hopes of a crewed Starliner launch – and thus an opportunity for them to gain hands-on spaceflight experience – in the next 6-12 months continue to wither. Barring surprises, the implied change of plans behind those actions means that SpaceX now appears to be scheduled to fly five operational NASA Crew Dragon missions back to back before Boeing’s Starliner flies a single astronaut – let alone its first operational mission with four crew aboard.
In December 2019, nine months after Crew Dragon’s own uncrewed March 2019 debut, Starliner lifted off for the first time on a ULA Atlas V rocket. However, whereas Crew Dragon performed a practically flawless orbital launch, space station rendezvous, docking, departure, reentry, and splashdown on its first try, Starliner’s Orbital Flight Test (OFT) went horribly wrong as soon as it separated from Atlas V.
Due to shoddy prelaunch testing that failed to detect several gaping holes in Starliner’s software, the spacecraft effectively lost control as soon as it was under its own power. Aside from making ground communication and control far harder, Starliner burned through most of its propellant and pushed most of its maneuvering thrusters past their design limits in the first hour or two after launch. Due to the catastrophic software failure and lack of propellant margins, NASA unsurprisingly called off a planned space station rendezvous and docking attempt and Boeing ultimately ordered Starliner to reenter a few days after launch.
Mere hours before reentry, Boeing apparently detected and fixed another major software error at the last second, potentially preventing Starliner’s propulsion and service module from smashing into the capsule’s fragile heat shield and dooming the spacecraft to burn up during reentry. Ultimately, it’s likely that the only reason Boeing didn’t suffer a total loss of vehicle (LOV) during Starliner’s OFT debut spacecraft was dumb luck. Had the initial clock error been worse, Starliner could have failed to reach orbit entirely or burned through all of its propellant, resulting in an uncontrolled reentry. Had there been no clock issue, it’s hard to imagine that Boeing’s software team would have attempted the panicked, impromptu bug hunt that detected and fixed the service module recontact issue.
Now, 22 months after Starliner’s catastrophic OFT, Boeing has been forced to stand down from a second self-funded orbital flight test (OFT-2) due to the last-second discovery of more than a dozen malfunctioning valves on the second spacecraft’s service module. Aside from raising the question of how Boeing and NASA yet again failed to detect a glaring Starliner issue until the day of launch, Starliner’s valve issues appear likely to cause another multi-month delay as Boeing is forced to investigate the problem, find the root cause, and implement a fix on all impacted service modules.
NASA reassigning some of the astronauts scheduled to helm Starliner on its Crewed Flight Test (CFT) and first operational mission to Crew Dragon’s August 2022 Crew-5 launch seemingly implies that the space agency is not confident that Boeing will have completed Starliner OFT-2, passed extensive post-flight reviews, and readied another Starliner for CFT by Q3 2022. Given that NASA took some 14 months to OK Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 crewed flight test after Demo-1’s March 2019 success and a catastrophic April 2019 failure during a ground test of the recovered capsule, it’s not unreasonable to assume that NASA will take about a year after OFT-2 to approve Starliner’s first crewed flight test.
If significant issues arise during OFT-2, which is now unlikely to occur before early 2022, a year-long gap is even more likely. Ultimately, that means that there is now a significant chance that SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft will complete not just five – but six – back-to-back operational NASA astronaut launches before Starliner is ready for its first operational ferry mission. SpaceX, in other words, is now expected to singlehandedly hold the line and ensure biannual NASA access to and from the International Space Station (ISS) for more than two years despite charging NASA $2 billion less than Boeing (~$5B vs ~$3B) to develop Crew Dragon.
Investor's Corner
Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love
Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.
The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.
This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.
Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas
The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.
The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:
“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”
Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.
Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.
Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.
Elon Musk
Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo
Just days after Waymo responded to them, Tesla is preparing for a potentially massive expansion of the Robotaxi geofence.
Tesla is preparing to expand its Robotaxi geofence yet again, just days after Waymo responded to its initial broadening of the area.
Tesla launched its first expansion last week, less than a month after introducing Robotaxi rides in Austin.
The company opted for a very interesting shape for its geofence expansion, which was more of an indication that it could launch more rides in virtually any area of the city due to the new geofence it chose.
Waymo then responded to Tesla shortly after with an expansion of its own. After Tesla’s first expansion of its geofence, it had 42 square miles of Robotaxi-accessible travel region. This was larger than Waymo’s 37 square miles.
However, the Waymo expansion last week brought the company to a substantial 90 square miles of Austin:
Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
Tesla appears to be ready to respond. Drone operator and Gigafactory Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer spotted Tesla Robotaxi validation vehicles well west of downtown Austin in the area of Marble Falls, Texas.
This would significantly increase Tesla’s square mileage if it could manage to bring its geofence to that size:
🚨 We could see Tesla’s response to Waymo’s expansion in Austin very soon
Based on Tesla’s expansion last time, it’s safe to assume they can go to any area of Austin whenever they choose
It’s not a coincidence they chose, well, you know, the shape they did 🤣 https://t.co/xB92SQ1ntC
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 19, 2025
The two companies are not directly responding to one another with these expansions, but it appears that there is a significant amount of competition underway, which ultimately benefits the consumers.
Waymo has been operating in Texas since March from a fully public perspective, while Tesla is still slowly expanding its test size for the Robotaxi fleet on a nearly daily basis. Tesla launched Robotaxi rides to a handful of Early Access Program members on June 22.
Tesla is also expanding to other regions of the United States, particularly in Arizona and California. However, the Texas expansion is a priority currently, as it is the only region where Tesla has received approval to operate passenger rides in a driverless setting in the country.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk confirms awesome new features at Tesla Diner Supercharger
More details continue to be revealed about the Tesla Supercharger Diner as its opening seems to be imminent.
Elon Musk has confirmed a few new features that will be present at the Tesla Diner Supercharger in Los Angeles.
Musk confirmed these two new details as he revealed he recently ate at the Supercharger Diner. We also recently confirmed a few menu items as a soft launch has already occurred, and a public launch date appears to be within reach.
The new features were revealed by Tesla Joy on X. We shared the details, and Musk confirmed that these are, in fact, features of the Diner that Tesla owners will be able to enjoy.
Tesla reveals key detail of Supercharger Diner, but it’s bigger than you think
The Diner is not exclusive to Tesla owners, but these two features do require a Tesla for compatibility purposes.
Order Food from Your Car
As you pull into the Supercharger Diner, you can order any food item you want, including burgers, wings, fries, shakes, cookies, and more, directly from your vehicle.
A prompt will likely appear that will open a menu to the Supercharger Diner, allowing you to order food. An employee will bring the food out, that is, if Tesla decides to continue with a true and traditional 50s diner theme.
We get it, it’s not a groundbreaking feature. It’s still cool, convenient, and another advantage to visit the diner as a Tesla owner.
Movie Screen Audio Will Sync to Your Tesla
There are two massive movie screens that will play various entertainment options during your visit to the Supercharger Diner. There have been movie clips and even SpaceX launch highlights playing during recent drone flyovers at the location on Santa Monica Boulevard.
Instead of having to open your windows to hear the content on the screen, it will instead sync the audio and play directly in your vehicle through your car stereo speakers.
True
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 18, 2025
The Supercharger Diner has also appeared on the Tesla app for the first time, and is currently showing 80 stalls at the location:
🚨 The Tesla Diner is now showing up on the phone app.
80 Superchargers!!! pic.twitter.com/fdN2MzyZCg
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 18, 2025
Although the stalls are not yet active, the culmination of all the details we’ve learned over the past week about the Diner only points to one thing: an imminent grand opening.
Tesla has not yet confirmed a date for the Supercharger Diner’s opening, and Los Angeles building and construction permits also do not state a specific target date for opening.
It seems as if Tesla will reveal the date itself, potentially in the coming week, as it will report earnings on Wednesday, July 23.
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