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Report: SpaceX to launch at least five back-to-back Crew Dragon missions for NASA
Update: Wasting no time at all, NASA has confirmed the Ars Technica report one day later, announcing that rookie astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada have been reassigned from Boeing Starliner missions to SpaceX’s Crew-5 Crew Dragon launch – currently no earlier than August 2022.
Ars Technica’s Eric Berger reports that NASA has begun the process of moving a number of astronauts assigned to Boeing’s ailing Starliner spacecraft to a SpaceX Crew Dragon mission scheduled no earlier than August 2022.
Per sources close to Berger, NASA has chosen to reassign two rookie astronauts to Crew Dragon as hopes of a crewed Starliner launch – and thus an opportunity for them to gain hands-on spaceflight experience – in the next 6-12 months continue to wither. Barring surprises, the implied change of plans behind those actions means that SpaceX now appears to be scheduled to fly five operational NASA Crew Dragon missions back to back before Boeing’s Starliner flies a single astronaut – let alone its first operational mission with four crew aboard.
In December 2019, nine months after Crew Dragon’s own uncrewed March 2019 debut, Starliner lifted off for the first time on a ULA Atlas V rocket. However, whereas Crew Dragon performed a practically flawless orbital launch, space station rendezvous, docking, departure, reentry, and splashdown on its first try, Starliner’s Orbital Flight Test (OFT) went horribly wrong as soon as it separated from Atlas V.
Due to shoddy prelaunch testing that failed to detect several gaping holes in Starliner’s software, the spacecraft effectively lost control as soon as it was under its own power. Aside from making ground communication and control far harder, Starliner burned through most of its propellant and pushed most of its maneuvering thrusters past their design limits in the first hour or two after launch. Due to the catastrophic software failure and lack of propellant margins, NASA unsurprisingly called off a planned space station rendezvous and docking attempt and Boeing ultimately ordered Starliner to reenter a few days after launch.
Mere hours before reentry, Boeing apparently detected and fixed another major software error at the last second, potentially preventing Starliner’s propulsion and service module from smashing into the capsule’s fragile heat shield and dooming the spacecraft to burn up during reentry. Ultimately, it’s likely that the only reason Boeing didn’t suffer a total loss of vehicle (LOV) during Starliner’s OFT debut spacecraft was dumb luck. Had the initial clock error been worse, Starliner could have failed to reach orbit entirely or burned through all of its propellant, resulting in an uncontrolled reentry. Had there been no clock issue, it’s hard to imagine that Boeing’s software team would have attempted the panicked, impromptu bug hunt that detected and fixed the service module recontact issue.
Now, 22 months after Starliner’s catastrophic OFT, Boeing has been forced to stand down from a second self-funded orbital flight test (OFT-2) due to the last-second discovery of more than a dozen malfunctioning valves on the second spacecraft’s service module. Aside from raising the question of how Boeing and NASA yet again failed to detect a glaring Starliner issue until the day of launch, Starliner’s valve issues appear likely to cause another multi-month delay as Boeing is forced to investigate the problem, find the root cause, and implement a fix on all impacted service modules.
NASA reassigning some of the astronauts scheduled to helm Starliner on its Crewed Flight Test (CFT) and first operational mission to Crew Dragon’s August 2022 Crew-5 launch seemingly implies that the space agency is not confident that Boeing will have completed Starliner OFT-2, passed extensive post-flight reviews, and readied another Starliner for CFT by Q3 2022. Given that NASA took some 14 months to OK Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 crewed flight test after Demo-1’s March 2019 success and a catastrophic April 2019 failure during a ground test of the recovered capsule, it’s not unreasonable to assume that NASA will take about a year after OFT-2 to approve Starliner’s first crewed flight test.
If significant issues arise during OFT-2, which is now unlikely to occur before early 2022, a year-long gap is even more likely. Ultimately, that means that there is now a significant chance that SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft will complete not just five – but six – back-to-back operational NASA astronaut launches before Starliner is ready for its first operational ferry mission. SpaceX, in other words, is now expected to singlehandedly hold the line and ensure biannual NASA access to and from the International Space Station (ISS) for more than two years despite charging NASA $2 billion less than Boeing (~$5B vs ~$3B) to develop Crew Dragon.
News
Tesla Sweden faces new pressure in Sweden as Assa Abloy joins union action
The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites.
The labor standoff between Tesla and Sweden’s IF Metall union has widened again, this time pulling in Assa Abloy Industrial, a manufacturer of industrial doors and locks.
IF Metall announced a new sympathy strike halting all Assa Abloy services for Tesla, set to take effect November 4, according to Dagens Arbete (DA). The move is aimed at further pressuring Tesla into signing a collective agreement after nearly two years of ongoing labor conflict.
New strike targets Tesla’s industrial operations
The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites. IF Metall hopes the measure will disrupt Tesla’s daily operations and highlight the growing solidarity among Swedish companies.
Assa Abloy becomes the latest in a line of firms drawn into the dispute, with the Swedish Mediation Institute now logging fourteen conflict notices since September. The escalation shows that unions and partner industries are aligning to support of IF Metall’s campaign to secure a collective bargaining deal, something Tesla has consistently resisted.
IF Metall says Tesla must understand Sweden’s labor model
IF Metall chair Marie Nilsson recently reiterated her call for Tesla Sweden to reconsider its stance on organized labor, noting that Sweden’s union system differs sharply from the more adversarial model in the United States.
“I can certainly understand that Elon Musk and Tesla are skeptical of the trade union movement,” Nilsson said. “They have experience with American unions that operate in a completely different environment and that have to be militant in a different way.”
Nilsson emphasized that Swedish unions function cooperatively and that signing a collective agreement locally does not commit Tesla to similar deals elsewhere. “Let’s give us a chance,” she added. “It is the practical system we have here to regulate the conditions.”
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Elon Musk: Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any tech
The CEO noted that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time.”
Elon Musk has shared one of his most optimistic forecasts for Tesla’s self-driving rollout yet. As per the CEO, Tesla’s self-driving system could see the fastest technological adoption in history, thanks to the fleet’s capability to gain autonomous capabilities through a software update.
The CEO shared his forecast in a post on social media platform X.
Tesla’s aims to scale autonomy
Musk’s comment came as a response to industry watcher Sawyer Merritt, who posted a comparison between the geofence of Tesla’s Robotaxi network and Waymo’s service area. As can be seen in the graphic, Tesla’s Austin geofence has gotten noticeably larger compared to Waymo’s service area.
In his response, Musk stated that “Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any technology ever.” He also stated that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time,” as a software update could unlock full autonomy “for millions of pre-existing cars in a short period of time.”
Musk’s comment bodes well for Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions, which seem to be finally in reach with the deployment of Unsupervised FSD in vehicle factories, as well as Austin and the Bay Area. For now, however, Tesla’s Austin Robotaxis and Bay Area ride-hailing vehicles are still operated with a safety monitor in the driver’s seat.
Tesla’s latest Austin expansion
Tesla recently expanded its Austin Robotaxi service area this week to 243 square miles, its largest yet and nearly triple the coverage from two months ago. The move outpaces Waymo’s local service footprint, which remains at around 90 square miles.
The expansion marks Tesla’s second major Austin update since August and emphasizes its push to dominate the autonomous ride-hailing landscape. With both Tesla and Waymo racing to prove scale and reliability, Musk’s confidence suggests the real contest may be about who can move fastest once the tech flips on across Tesla’s fleet. Once that happens, Tesla would effectively be able to win the self-driving race.
News
Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move
It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”
Tesla has sent a clear message to Waymo with its latest move to its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas.
Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.
Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat
The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.
One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).
Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.
On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).
This is according to Robotracker:
Here’s a comparison of Tesla’s geofence in Austin vs. Waymo’s
Tesla’s now spans 243 square miles, almost three times the size of Waymo’s at 89 square miles https://t.co/OCAHQDQhzb pic.twitter.com/wq5bHQXCp4
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 29, 2025
It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”
Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.
Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.
Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.
Tesla Sweden faces new pressure in Sweden as Assa Abloy joins union action
Elon Musk: Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any tech
Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move
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