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Report: SpaceX to launch at least five back-to-back Crew Dragon missions for NASA
Update: Wasting no time at all, NASA has confirmed the Ars Technica report one day later, announcing that rookie astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada have been reassigned from Boeing Starliner missions to SpaceX’s Crew-5 Crew Dragon launch – currently no earlier than August 2022.
Ars Technica’s Eric Berger reports that NASA has begun the process of moving a number of astronauts assigned to Boeing’s ailing Starliner spacecraft to a SpaceX Crew Dragon mission scheduled no earlier than August 2022.
Per sources close to Berger, NASA has chosen to reassign two rookie astronauts to Crew Dragon as hopes of a crewed Starliner launch – and thus an opportunity for them to gain hands-on spaceflight experience – in the next 6-12 months continue to wither. Barring surprises, the implied change of plans behind those actions means that SpaceX now appears to be scheduled to fly five operational NASA Crew Dragon missions back to back before Boeing’s Starliner flies a single astronaut – let alone its first operational mission with four crew aboard.
In December 2019, nine months after Crew Dragon’s own uncrewed March 2019 debut, Starliner lifted off for the first time on a ULA Atlas V rocket. However, whereas Crew Dragon performed a practically flawless orbital launch, space station rendezvous, docking, departure, reentry, and splashdown on its first try, Starliner’s Orbital Flight Test (OFT) went horribly wrong as soon as it separated from Atlas V.
Due to shoddy prelaunch testing that failed to detect several gaping holes in Starliner’s software, the spacecraft effectively lost control as soon as it was under its own power. Aside from making ground communication and control far harder, Starliner burned through most of its propellant and pushed most of its maneuvering thrusters past their design limits in the first hour or two after launch. Due to the catastrophic software failure and lack of propellant margins, NASA unsurprisingly called off a planned space station rendezvous and docking attempt and Boeing ultimately ordered Starliner to reenter a few days after launch.
Mere hours before reentry, Boeing apparently detected and fixed another major software error at the last second, potentially preventing Starliner’s propulsion and service module from smashing into the capsule’s fragile heat shield and dooming the spacecraft to burn up during reentry. Ultimately, it’s likely that the only reason Boeing didn’t suffer a total loss of vehicle (LOV) during Starliner’s OFT debut spacecraft was dumb luck. Had the initial clock error been worse, Starliner could have failed to reach orbit entirely or burned through all of its propellant, resulting in an uncontrolled reentry. Had there been no clock issue, it’s hard to imagine that Boeing’s software team would have attempted the panicked, impromptu bug hunt that detected and fixed the service module recontact issue.
Now, 22 months after Starliner’s catastrophic OFT, Boeing has been forced to stand down from a second self-funded orbital flight test (OFT-2) due to the last-second discovery of more than a dozen malfunctioning valves on the second spacecraft’s service module. Aside from raising the question of how Boeing and NASA yet again failed to detect a glaring Starliner issue until the day of launch, Starliner’s valve issues appear likely to cause another multi-month delay as Boeing is forced to investigate the problem, find the root cause, and implement a fix on all impacted service modules.
NASA reassigning some of the astronauts scheduled to helm Starliner on its Crewed Flight Test (CFT) and first operational mission to Crew Dragon’s August 2022 Crew-5 launch seemingly implies that the space agency is not confident that Boeing will have completed Starliner OFT-2, passed extensive post-flight reviews, and readied another Starliner for CFT by Q3 2022. Given that NASA took some 14 months to OK Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 crewed flight test after Demo-1’s March 2019 success and a catastrophic April 2019 failure during a ground test of the recovered capsule, it’s not unreasonable to assume that NASA will take about a year after OFT-2 to approve Starliner’s first crewed flight test.
If significant issues arise during OFT-2, which is now unlikely to occur before early 2022, a year-long gap is even more likely. Ultimately, that means that there is now a significant chance that SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft will complete not just five – but six – back-to-back operational NASA astronaut launches before Starliner is ready for its first operational ferry mission. SpaceX, in other words, is now expected to singlehandedly hold the line and ensure biannual NASA access to and from the International Space Station (ISS) for more than two years despite charging NASA $2 billion less than Boeing (~$5B vs ~$3B) to develop Crew Dragon.
News
Tesla FSD V14 gets tentative release date
The update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.
Tesla is not releasing Unsupervised FSD to regular customers yet, but the company seems to be preparing something special for its FSD users nonetheless.
This was, at least, according to Elon Musk in a recent post on X.
Tesla FSD V14
Tesla’s FSD program has been deemed by Elon Musk as one of the key factors that would determine the company’s long term success. Over the past months, however, Tesla has mostly been focusing on the rollout and ramp of its Robotaxi program in Austin and the Bay Area. Tesla’s Robotaxi service uses Unsupervised FSD, which is not yet released to customers.
However, in a post on X, Musk stated that Tesla is preparing its next big update for its consumer-grade FSD system—V14. Musk did not provide a lot of details about FSD V14’s capabilities, but the CEO did state that the update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.
“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla Unsupervised FSD Rollout
During the second quarter earnings call, Tesla executives were asked for a timeline on the rollout of Unsupervised FSD to consumer vehicles. In his reply, Musk stated that he believes Unsupervised FSD will be available for consumers in certain geographies. He did explain that Tesla will be extra careful with the system’s release.
“We are getting there. I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies. We are just being very careful about it. This is not something we should rush,” Musk said, adding that “I am confident that by this year, within a number of cities in the US, it will be available to end users.
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Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026
The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year.
Elon Musk has reaffirmed the Tesla Semi’s mass production date. He mentioned the update in a post on social media platform X during the weekend.
Tesla Semi Factory
The Tesla Semi was initially unveiled in late 2017, and its first deliveries were held in December 2022. Since then, Tesla has only been delivering the Semi to a handful of customers while it builds a dedicated factory for the Class 8 all-electric truck near its Giga Nevada facility.
Drone flyovers of the Tesla Semi factory over the past months have suggested that progress in the construction of the facility has been steady. More recent flyovers have even suggested that Tesla is now busy outfitting the facility with the necessary equipment for the mass production of the Semi.
Elon Musk’s Recent Comments
In a recent comment on X, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that the Semi was indeed expected to be mass produced in 2026. Musk shared his update as a response to a Tesla bull who recalled that Bill Gates did not believe that the Semi was feasible due to the limitations of battery technology. In his response, Musk posted a laughing emoji together with “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.”
The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year. While this number may not be attained by the facility right out of the gate, it would only be a matter of time before the factory manages to hit an optimal production rate.
In a video posted on social media earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla stated that the company is preparing for volume production over the coming quarters. With such a pace, the factory should be able to mass produce the Semi in 2026.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor
Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products.
Earlier this week, reports emerged stating that Tesla has stepped back from its Project Dojo initiative. While the reports were initially framed as a negative development for the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous driving efforts, CEO Elon Musk later noted on X that Tesla was indeed halting its Dojo initiative.
Elon Musk’s Confirmation
As per Musk, Tesla was shuttering Project Dojo because it does not make sense for the company to divide its resources and scale two different AI chip designs. Dojo, after all, is designed to train the company’s autonomous driving program, and thus, it would not be rolled out to Tesla’s consumer products.
In a series of posts on X, Musk stated that it would make sense to just use Tesla’s AI5/AI6 to train its FSD and Autopilot systems. “In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude,” Musk said.
Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products, from Optimus to the Cybercab to the next-generation Roadster.
AI6 is Dojo’s Successor
What was particularly interesting about Musk’s comment was his mention of using AI5/AI6 chips for training. As per Musk, this strategy could be seen as “Dojo 3” in a way, since the performance of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips is already notable. Musk’s comment about using AI6 chips for training caught the eye of many, including Apple and Rivian alumnus Phil Beisel, who noted that “AI6 is now Dojo.”
“Dojo is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer, built around a custom chip known as the D1. The D1 and AI5/AI6 share many core design elements, particularly the math operations used in neural networks (e.g., matrix multiplication) and highly parallel processing.
“Dojo had a unique feature: chips arranged in a 5×5 grid using a system-on-wafer design, with etched interconnects enabling high-speed data transfer. In a sense, Dojo will live on as the generalized AI6. Going forward, all efforts will focus on AI6,” the tech veteran wrote in a post on X.
Elon Musk confirmed the Apple alumnus’ musings, with the CEO responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk is evidently excited for Tesla’s AI6 chip, which is expected to produced by Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility. In a post on X, Musk stated that he would personally be walking Samsung’s line to accelerate the output of Tesla’s AI6 computers.
Tesla FSD V14 gets tentative release date
Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026
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