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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship's orbital launch debut could happen as early as September 2022. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.

The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.

First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.

While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.

It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.

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Booster 7 (right) and Booster 8 (left).

Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.

If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.

Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.

Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla to launch in India in July with vehicles already arriving: report

Tesla is finally making serious moves toward launching in India, with showrooms opening in July, a report claims.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is finally bringing its business to India, a new report indicates, as the company is already shipping vehicles from China to the market where it has attempted to launch business for several years.

We first heard of Tesla planning to launch in India about a decade ago when CEO Elon Musk and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in California at the Fremont Factory in 2015.

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Over the years, the two have hinted that the automaker would eventually land in India, but issues with import duties have delayed Tesla’s attempts.

Now, there seems to be some serious movement in Tesla’s plans, as it has reportedly shipped the first batch of vehicles from China to India, according to Bloomberg. The outlet says these are Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive configurations.

Tesla is also planning for other parts of the launch, like preparing for Supercharging, aftermarket parts and merchandise purchasing for vehicle owners and fans, and spare parts from various regions, including the United States, China, and the Netherlands.

The company and the Indian government must have come to some sort of agreement that was catalyzed by Musk and Modi’s meeting in February in the U.S.

It is a long time coming, and it now gives Tesla access to an incredibly vast market in India, where a very small percentage of 2024’s total automotive sales were comprised of electric vehicles.

Another interesting tidbit about the launch is that the vehicles will be coming from Gigafactory Shanghai and not Gigafactory Berlin as previously thought. Reports from other publications, like Reuters, indicated the German production facility was building vehicles for India early last year.

India has a very strict policy that favors domestic manufacturing, which is why the import duties were so high for foreign automakers looking to bring their product into the market. These duties were reduced from 110 percent to just 15 percent, as long as companies aim to invest in India and meet certain investment and sales targets.

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SpaceX and Elon Musk share insights on Starship Ship 36’s RUD

Starship Ship 36 experienced a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly during a static fire attempt.

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Elon Musk and SpaceX provided an explanation for the Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) of Starship Ship 36 on Wednesday. As per Musk, preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) in the vehicle’s payload bay failed below its proof pressure.

On Wednesday evening, Ship 36 experienced a RUD during a static fire attempt. Videos of the incident that were shared online showed Starship Ship 36 exploding into a massive fireball at its launchpad in Starbase, Texas. Images taken in the aftermath of the explosion showed significant damage to the plumbing in the area. The site’s pad structure was also destroyed.

Elon Musk shared some information immediately after the incident. In a response to a post from space enthusiast @Erdayastronaut, Musk stated that “Preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen COPV in the payload bay failed below its proof pressure.”

Musk also noted that, “If further investigation confirms that this is what happened, it is the first time ever for this design.”

SpaceX provided more insight into the incident in a post on its official website.

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“After completing a single-engine static fire earlier this week, the vehicle was in the process of loading cryogenic propellant for a six-engine static fire when a sudden energetic event resulted in the complete loss of Starship and damage to the immediate area surrounding the stand.

“The explosion ignited several fires at the test site, which remains clear of personnel and will be assessed once it has been determined to be safe to approach. Individuals should not attempt to approach the area while safing operations continue,” SpaceX wrote in its post.

SpaceX highlighted that despite Starship Ship 36’s RUD, the incident will not result in any hazards to the surrounding communities in the Rio Grande Valley. And in a post on X, SpaceX also confirmed that everyone in the Starship team was safe and accounted for after Ship 36’s explosion.

While Ship 36’s RUD is a speed bump for the Starship program, SpaceX is a company that is known to grow stronger with every adversity. Thus, it would not be surprising if SpaceX implemented numerous improvements to Starship after this incident–improvements that would make the vehicle more reliable and safer than before.

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Tesla has started rolling out initial round of Robotaxi invites

Tesla is putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

Tesla has started rolling out an initial round of invites for its upcoming Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

Screenshots shared by several Tesla community members who received the invites provided a quick overview of the autonomous ride-hailing service.

As noted in a techAU report, the initial round of Robotaxi service invites has gone to longtime Tesla owners and active members of the EV community. These include owners such as @SawyerMerritt, @BLKMDL3, @WholeMarsBlog, @ItsKimJava, and @HerbertOng, all of whom shared screenshots of the invitation that Tesla has sent about the upcoming service.

You’re Invited to Early Access of Tesla Robotaxi!

The Future is Now! You’re invited to Early Access of Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin, TX!

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As an Early Access rider, you can be among the first to use our new Robotaxi App and experience an autonomous ride within our geofenced area in Austin. Through this exclusive preview, you’ll have the opportunity to provide valuable feedback on our Robotaxi service.

Based on Tesla’s message, it appears that participation in the service would be strictly invite-only for now. Participants must also download Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi App to hail a ride. Rides can also be requested and initiated to and from any location within a geofenced area of Austin.

The robotaxi service will be available from 6:00 AM to 12:00 AM, seven days a week, though these hours may change depending on factors such as inclement weather. Interestingly enough, Tesla is inviting the first participants of the Robotaxi program to share photos and videos of their experience with the service.

While the vehicles themselves are autonomous and would operate without human input, the Robotaxis would still be accompanied by a Tesla staff member to monitor the vehicle. This strategy suggests that Tesla is really putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.

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