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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship's orbital launch debut could happen as early as September 2022. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.

The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.

First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.

While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.

It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.

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Booster 7 (right) and Booster 8 (left).

Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.

If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.

Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.

Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Teslas will self-deliver to customers, Elon Musk says: here’s when

Teslas will soon drive themselves to customers, Elon Musk says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has an extremely busy month for himself and his company in June if all goes according to plan.

Not only is Tesla planning to launch its Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas, next month, but Musk is also now indicating that Teslas will self-deliver to customers in June as well.

Musk has said for some time that Tesla vehicles would soon be capable of driving to customers without a driver within the car. Initially, it seemed like the company would do this in the areas close to its U.S. factories – the Greater Austin, Texas, area, and potentially in Northern California’s Bay Area of San Francisco, where the company’s Fremont Factory operates.

Upon confirmation that Tesla has been testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin for the past several days, Musk brought forth a new detail that fans of the company will love to hear: Teslas will soon drive themselves to customers, eliminating the need for trips to the showroom for delivery.

How soon? Musk says next month:

There is no doubt that the bigger news within Musk’s X post is that it is on track for the launch of the Robotaxi platform. Tesla has been touting its prowess in self-driving for several years. As other companies have executed, Tesla has taken a more unorthodox approach by utilizing only cameras and being much more reserved with its rollout of driverless software.

While Full Self-Driving is consistently ranked at the top of the current Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), it is not fully autonomous. That is set to change, and not only will it yield the results of what will hopefully be a successful Robotaxi fleet, but also a vehicle delivery process that makes buying a vehicle more convenient than it already is from Tesla, with no hassle, no dealership jargon, and no negotiating.

The launch of the Robotaxi platform is set for Austin on June 12, according to Bloomberg, where roughly 10 Model Y SUVs will make their way around the city initially. Tesla will expand as safety is proven, which is the utmost priority.

Musk also said later on X that people should be able to fly to Austin and hail a Robotaxi by the end of June.

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Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

Tesla has reportedly landed on a tentative date to launch the Robotaxi platform in Austin.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has reportedly landed on a set date for its launch of the Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas.

Bloomberg is reporting that Tesla has discussed June 12 internally, and there is still the potential for it to change.

The date comes after Tesla tested the driverless ride-sharing platform on public roads in Austin, and has been for several weeks. The report said that Tesla started doing it this week, and CEO Elon Musk confirmed on X by saying:

“For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.”

The report indicates a person was in the vehicle, but not in the driver’s seat. Instead, a Tesla engineer sat in the passenger seat of a Model Y, “which drove autonomously with no remote operation.”

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

The testing has successfully gone on a month ahead of the company’s deadline of June 30.

Currently, Tesla’s plans for the initial rollout of the suite are extremely limited. There will only be ten vehicles at first, and the riders will be invited by the company. This is an effort that puts safety at the forefront of this trial period, and will expand as time goes on.

It could be sooner than expected, as Musk also said that anyone would likely be able to visit Austin and take a ride in the Robotaxi by the end of June.

The report and subsequent announcement come after many media outlets reported Tesla was not testing Robotaxi in any capacity. Some had even considered the project a total failure even before the June launch date, a typical tone most media take with the company.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

Tesla has not been great at meeting its own timelines, but it has been adamant that it would reach this June deadline for several months.

Now that it appears Tesla is at an all-systems-go mentality for the Robotaxi launch, it will be interesting to see how quickly it can expand from its initial testing.

Shares are up just over 1.3 percent as of 10:30 a.m. on the East Coast. They are up 24 percent over the past 30 days, and down just 4.5 percent for the year so far.

The Robotaxi fleet will help to bolster Tesla’s position as a leader in autonomy, something it has already essentially achieved through its successful operation of the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite.

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Tesla investors demand 40-hour workweek from Elon Musk

Pension fund leaders push the Tesla board to require 40 hrs/wk from Elon Musk. Should Tesla enforce this? Or simply trust Musk?

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Wcamp9, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Pension fund leaders with Tesla investments are urging the company’s board to mandate Elon Musk dedicate at least 40 hours per week to the electric vehicle maker, citing a looming crisis.

The group holds a combined 7.9 million TSLA shares and expressed alarm over Tesla’s challenges in a Wednesday letter to board chair Robyn Denholm.

“Tesla’s stock price volatility, declining sales, as well as disconcerting reports regarding the company’s human rights practices, and a plummeting global reputation are cause for serious concern,” the investors wrote.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-explains-25-percent-voting-share-tsla/

They attributed many issues to Musk’s external activities, including his role in the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The pension fund leaders criticized the board for failing to ensure Musk’s “full-time attention” on Tesla. The group includes the SOC Investment Group, the American Federation of Teachers, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, and Oregon State Treasurer Elizabeth Steiner.

The investors’ letter comes as the Tesla board plans for Elon Musk’s next compensation plan, following the Delaware Court of Chancery’s 2023 ruling to rescind his $56 billion 2018 package. Besides a 40-hour workweek requirement, they also called for a clear succession plan and limits on directors’ external board commitments to strengthen governance. The letter highlighted concerns about board independence. Tesla recently added former Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung, who previously worked with Musk’s brother, Kimbal Musk, as a Tesla board member.

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The group’s letter reveals where the position of some investors as Elon Musk forges ahead with Tesla’s future plans. Musk’s broader ambitions for Tesla were evident during the Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call, where he envisioned the company as an AI and robotics powerhouse with “truly immense capability and power.” He emphasized his desire for 25% voting control to maintain influence without complete control.

“You know, we’ve had a lot of challenges with Institutional Shareholder Services, ISS — I call them ISIS — and Glass Lewis, you know, which there’s a lot of activists that basically infiltrate those organizations and have strange ideas about what should be done,” Musk said.

As Musk plans to focus more on Tesla, alongside xAI and SpaceX, the investors’ demands underscore tensions between his expansive vision and shareholder expectations. With Tesla navigating stock volatility and reputational challenges, the board faces pressure to align Musk’s leadership with the company’s long-term stability.

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