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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship's orbital launch debut could happen as early as September 2022. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.

The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.

First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.

While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.

It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.

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Booster 7 (right) and Booster 8 (left).

Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.

If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.

Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.

Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving gets an offer to be insured for ‘almost free’

“If @elonmusk is game, we’d be happy to explore insuring Tesla FSD miles for (almost) free.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving just got an insurance offer from Lemonade Co-founder and President Shai Wininger that might be too good to pass up, as he wants to insure vehicles on FSD for “almost free.”

Traditionally, Tesla vehicles are slightly more expensive to insure with traditional companies because of higher repair costs that stem from their technology and state-of-the-art structural battery design.

However, the development of the Full Self-Driving suite by Tesla has certainly pulled some tech entrepreneurs and others to believe the vehicles should be much cheaper to insure.

While there are certainly people on both sides of the spectrum, a handful of notable tech figures believe the data shows that Teslas operating on FSD are safer than human drivers.

Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer

One of the tech figures who believes that is Shai Wininger, President and Co-founder of Lemonade, an insurance company that has nearly two million customers.

On X, Wininger recently announced the direct integration with Tesla vehicles that would roll out to Lemonade customers. The integration would “remove the need for a UBI device in our Pay Per Mile product. This makes activating Lemonade Car on Teslas effortless and lets us cut hardware and shipping costs, helping lower prices for Tesla drivers even further.”

He said the Tesla API complemented Lemonade’s platform because it provides “richer and more accurate driving behavior data than traditional UBI devices.”

He then proposed an idea to CEO Elon Musk, stating that Lemonade would “be happy to explore insuring Tesla FSD miles for (almost) free.”

It would provide Tesla drivers with stable and accurate insurance, while also incentivizing owners to utilize the Full Self-Driving suite for their miles, making the semi-autonomous driving platform extremely cost-effective to use.

Wininger said it would be available in states where Tesla’s in-house insurance program is not available. Tesla Insurance is available in twelve states, and is looking to expand in Florida, as we reported earlier this week. However, it has not expanded to a new state in about three years.

The thought of Lemonade being able to insure FSD miles for almost nothing is an extremely attractive offer from Wininger, and could potentially be a new outlet to make Teslas even less expensive to own and operate throughout their lifetime.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm

ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).

Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.

The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.

However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.

The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”

However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.

If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.

Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.

Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+

Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”

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Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its centerscreen in a coming update

In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its center touchscreen in a coming update, according to a noted hacker.

In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38. Details on the use case are slim, but he said the feature would export the car screen so it could be viewed remotely.

It would bring up a notification on the screen, along with a four-digit pin that would link the two together:

As previously mentioned, the use case is unclear, but there are some ideas. One of which is for remote support, which is something Apple has used to help resolve issues with its products.

Support staff and employees routinely tap into customers’ screens to help resolve issues, so this could be a way Tesla could also use it.

This seems especially relevant with Robotaxi, as the screen might be a crucial part of resolving customer complaints when there is no employee in the car.

Additionally, it seems as if it will not be exclusive to those owners who have newer vehicles that utilize the AMD chip. Intel will get support with the new feature as well, according to what green has noticed in the coding.

Finally, it could also be used with all sorts of content creation, especially as Full Self-Driving videos and what the vehicle sees in Driver Visualization.

As it is released, Tesla will likely release more information regarding what the screensharing mode will be used for.

For right now, many owners are wondering where it could actually work and what advantages it will offer for owners as well as the company itself.

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