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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
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Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD estimated delivery slips to early fall 2026
Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.
Tesla’s estimated delivery window for new Cybertruck Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive (AWD) orders in the United States has shifted to September–October 2026. This suggests that the vehicle’s sub-$60,000 variant is now effectively sold out until then.
The updated timeline was highlighted in a post on X by Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt, who noted that the estimated delivery window had moved from June 2026 to September-October 2026, “presumably due to strong demand.”
The Dual Motor AWD currently starts at $59,990 before incentives. Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.
If demand remains steady, the combination of a later delivery window and a pending price increase suggests Tesla is seeing sustained interest in the newly-introduced Cybertruck configuration. This was highlighted by Elon Musk on X, when he noted that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD’s introductory price will only be available for a limited time.
When the Cybertruck was first unveiled in November 2019, Tesla listed the Dual Motor AWD variant at $49,990. Adjusted for inflation, that figure equates to roughly $63,000 in 2026 dollars, based on cumulative U.S. inflation since 2019.
That context makes a potential post-February price in the $64,000 to $65,000 range less surprising, especially as material, labor, and manufacturing costs have shifted significantly over the past several years.
While Tesla has not announced a specific new MSRP, the updated delivery timeline and pricing note together suggest that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD could very well be the variant that takes the all-electric full-sized pickup truck to more widespread adoption.
Elon Musk
SpaceX targets 150Mbps per user for upgraded Starlink Direct-to-Cell
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
SpaceX is targeting peak download speeds of 150Mbps per user for its next-generation Direct-to-Cell Starlink service. The update was shared by SpaceX Spectrum & Regulatory Affairs Lead Udrivolf Pica during the International Telecommunication Union’s Space Connect conference.
“We are aiming at peak speeds of 150Mbps per user,” Pica said during the conference. “So something incredible if you think about the link budgets from space to the mobile phone.”
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
Today, SpaceX’s cellular Starlink service, offered in partnership with T-Mobile under the T-Satellite brand, provides speeds of roughly 4Mbps per user. The service is designed primarily for texts, low-resolution video calls, and select apps in locations that traditionally have no cellular service.
By comparison, Ookla data shows median 5G download speeds of approximately 309Mbps for T-Mobile and 172Mbps for AT&T in the United States, as noted in a PCMag report. While 150Mbps would still trail the fastest terrestrial 5G networks, it would place satellite-to-phone broadband much closer to conventional carrier performance, even in remote areas.
Pica indicated that the upgraded system would support “video, voice, and data services, clearly,” moving beyond emergency connectivity and basic messaging use cases.
To reach that target, SpaceX plans to upgrade its existing Starlink Direct-to-Cell satellites and add significant new capacity. The company recently acquired access to radio spectrum from EchoStar, which Pica described as key to expanding throughput.
“More spectrum means a bigger pipeline, and this means that we can expand what we can do with partners. We can expand the quality of service. And again, we can do cellular broadband basically, cellular broadband use cases, like AI or daily connectivity needs,” he stated.
SpaceX has also requested regulatory approval to deploy 15,000 additional Direct-to-Cell satellites, beyond the roughly 650 currently supporting the system. The upgraded architecture is expected to begin rolling out in late 2027.
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Tesla seeks approval to test FSD Supervised in new Swedish city
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
As per local outlet Jönköpings-Posten, Tesla has contacted the municipality with a request to begin FSD (Supervised) tests in the city. The company has already received approval to test its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software in several Swedish municipalities, as well as on the national road network.
Sofia Bennerstål, Tesla’s Head of Public Policy for Northern Europe, confirmed that an application has been submitted for FSD’s potential tests in Jönköping.
“I can confirm that we have submitted an application, but I cannot say much more about it,” Bennerstål told the news outlet. She also stated that Tesla is “satisfied with the tests” in the region so far.
The planned tests in Jönköping would involve a limited number of Tesla-owned vehicles. Trained Tesla safety drivers would remain behind the wheel and be prepared to intervene if necessary.
Tesla previously began testing in Nacka municipality after receiving local approval. At the time, the company stated that cooperation between authorities, municipalities, and industry enables technological progress and helps integrate future transport systems into real-world traffic conditions, as noted in an Allt Om Elbil report.
If approved, Jönköping would become the latest Swedish municipality to allow local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing.
Tesla’s Swedish testing program is part of the company’s efforts to validate its supervised autonomous driving software in everyday traffic environments. Municipal approvals allow Tesla to gather data in urban settings that include roundabouts, complex intersections, and mixed traffic conditions.
Sweden has become an increasingly active testing ground for Tesla’s driver-assistance software in Europe, with regulatory coordination between local authorities and national agencies enabling structured pilot programs.
Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD estimated delivery slips to early fall 2026
SpaceX targets 150Mbps per user for upgraded Starlink Direct-to-Cell
