News
Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
News
Tesla Model Y sold out in China for 2025
Customers who wish to get their cars by the end of the year would likely need to get an inventory unit.
It appears that the Model Y has been sold out for 2025 in China. This seems to be true for the four variants of the vehicle that are currently offered in the country.
Tesla China’s order page update
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the Model Y shows a message informing customers that those who wish to guarantee delivery by the end of the year should purchase an inventory unit. This was despite the Model Y RWD and Model Y L showing an estimated delivery timeline of 4-8 weeks, and the Model Y Long Range RWD and Model Y Long Range AWD showing 4-13 weeks.
As per industry watchers, these updates on the Model Y’s order page suggest that Tesla China’s sales capacity for the remainder of 2025 has been sold out. The fact that estimated delivery timeframes for the Model Y Long Range RWD and AWD extend up to 13 weeks also bodes well for demand for the vehicle, especially given strong rivals like the Xiaomi YU7, which undercuts the Model Y in price.
Tesla China’s upcoming big updates
What is quite interesting is that Tesla China is still competing in the country with one hand partly tied behind its back. So far, Tesla has only been able to secure partial approval for its flagship self-driving software, FSD, in China. This has resulted in V14 not being rolled out to the country yet. Despite this, Tesla China’s “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads,” as the system is called locally, has earned positive reviews from users.
As per Elon Musk during the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, however, Tesla is expecting to secure full approval for FSD in China in early 2026. “We have partial approval in China, and we hopefully will have full approval in China around February or March or so. That’s what they’ve told us,” Musk said.
News
Tesla Full Self-Driving appears to be heading to Europe soon
For years, Musk has said the process for gaining approval in Europe would take significantly more time than it does in the United States. Back in 2019, he predicted it would take six to twelve months to gain approval for Europe, but it has taken much longer.
Tesla Full Self-Driving appears to be heading to Europe soon, especially as the company has continued to expand its testing phases across the continent.
It appears that the effort is getting even bigger, as the company recently posted a job for a Vehicle Operator in Prague, Czech Republic.
This would be the third country the company is seeking a Vehicle Operator in for the European market, joining Germany and Hungary, which already have job postings in Berlin, Prüm, and Budapest, respectively.
🚨Breaking: Tesla is hiring vehicle operators in Prague. pic.twitter.com/CbiJdQLCLj
— Tesla Yoda (@teslayoda) November 19, 2025
This position specifically targets the Engineering and Information Technology departments at Tesla, and not the Robotics and Artificial Intelligence job category that relates to Robotaxi job postings.
Although there has been a posting for Robotaxi Operators in the Eastern Hemisphere, more specifically, Israel, this specific posting has to do with data collection, likely to bolster the company’s position in Europe with FSD.
The job description says:
“We are seeking a highly motivated employee to strengthen our team responsible for vehicle data collection. The Driver/Vehicle Operator position is tasked with capturing high-quality data that contributes to improving our vehicles’ performance. This role requires self-initiative, flexibility, attention to detail, and the ability to work in a dynamic environment.”
It also notes the job is for a fixed term of one year.
The position requires operation of a vehicle for data collection within a defined area, and requires the Vehicle Operator to provide feedback to improve data collection processes, analyze and report collected data, and create daily driving reports.
The posting also solidifies the company’s intention to bring its Full Self-Driving platform to Europe in the coming months, something it has worked tirelessly to achieve as it spars with local regulators.
For years, Musk has said the process for gaining approval in Europe would take significantly more time than it does in the United States. Back in 2019, he predicted it would take six to twelve months to gain approval for Europe, but it has taken much longer.
This year, Musk went on to say that the process of getting FSD to move forward has been “very frustrating,” and said it “hurts the safety of the people of Europe.”
Elon Musk clarifies the holdup with Tesla Full Self-Driving launch in Europe
The latest update Musk gave us was in July, when he said that Tesla was awaiting regulatory approval.
News
Tesla celebrates 75k Superchargers, less than 5 months since 70k-stall milestone
Tesla’s 75,000th stall is hosted at the South Hobart Smart Store on Cascade Road, South Hobart, Tasmania.
Tesla has crossed another major charging milestone by officially installing its 75,000th Supercharger stall worldwide. The electric vehicle maker chose South Hobart, Tasmania, as the commemorative location of its 75,000th Supercharger.
Tesla’s 75,000th Supercharger
Tesla’s 75,000th stall is hosted at the South Hobart Smart Store on Cascade Road, South Hobart, TAS 7004, as noted in a techAU report. The location features four next-generation V4 Superchargers, which are built with longer cables that should make it easy even for non-Teslas to use the rapid charger. The site also includes simplified payment options, aligning with Tesla’s push to make V4 stations more accessible to a broader set of drivers.
For Tasmanian EV owners, the installation fills an important regional gap, improving long-distance coverage around Hobart and strengthening the area’s appeal for mainland travelers traveling by electric vehicle. Similar to other commemorative Superchargers, the 70,000th stall is quite special as it is finished in Glacier Blue paint. Tesla’s 50,000th stall, which is in California, is painted a stunning red, and the 60,000th stall, which is in Japan, features unique origami-inspired graphics.
Accelerating Supercharger milestones
The Tesla Supercharger’s pace of expansion shows no signs of slowing. Tesla celebrated its 70,000th stall at a 12-stall site in Burleson, Texas late June 2025. Just eight months earlier, Tesla announced that it had celebrated the buildout of its 60,000th Supercharger, which was built in Enshu Morimachi, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan.
Tesla’s Supercharger Network also recently received accolades in the United Kingdom, with the 2025 Zapmap survey naming the rapid charging system as the Best Large EV Charging Network for the second year in a row. Survey respondents praised the Supercharger Network for its ease of use, price, and reliability, which is best-in-class. The fact that the network has also been opened for non-Teslas is just icing on the cake.
Tesla Model Y sold out in China for 2025
Tesla Full Self-Driving appears to be heading to Europe soon
