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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD
“Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes,” Musk said in regards to FSD v14.2.1 allowing texting and driving.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced a major update with texting and driving capabilities on Full Self-Driving v14.2.1, the company’s latest version of the FSD suite.
Tesla Full Self-Driving, even in its most mature and capable versions, is still a Level 2 autonomous driving suite, meaning it requires attention from the vehicle operator.
You cannot sleep, and you should not take attention away from driving; ultimately, you are still solely responsible for what happens with the car.
The vehicles utilize a cabin-facing camera to enable attention monitoring, and if you take your eyes off the road for too long, you will be admonished and advised to pay attention. After five strikes, FSD and Autopilot will be disabled.
However, Musk announced at the Annual Shareholder Meeting in early November that the company would look at the statistics, but it aimed to allow people to text and drive “within the next month or two.”
He said:
“I am confident that, within the next month or two, we’re gonna look at the safety statistics, but we will allow you to text and drive.”
“I am confident that, within the next month or two, we’re gonna look at the safety statistics, but we will allow you to text and drive.”
Does anyone think v14.3 will enable this? pic.twitter.com/N2yn0SK70M
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 23, 2025
Today, Musk confirmed that the current version of Full Self-Driving, which is FSD v14.2.1, does allow for texting and driving “depending on context of surrounding traffic.”
Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 4, 2025
There are some legitimate questions with this capability, especially as laws in all 50 U.S. states specifically prohibit texting and driving. It will be interesting to see the legality of it, because if a police officer sees you texting, they won’t know that you’re on Full Self-Driving, and you’ll likely be pulled over.
Some states prohibit drivers from even holding a phone when the car is in motion.
It is certainly a move toward unsupervised Full Self-Driving operation, but it is worth noting that Musk’s words state it will only allow the vehicle operator to do it depending on the context of surrounding traffic.
He did not outline any specific conditions that FSD would allow a driver to text and drive.
News
Tesla Semi just got a huge vote of confidence from 300-truck fleet
The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.
The Tesla Semi is moving closer to broader fleet adoption, with Keller Logistics Group wrapping up a key pre-production planning session with the electric vehicle maker’s team this week.
The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.
Keller’s pre-production Tesla Semi sessions
Keller Logistics Group, a family-owned carrier with over 300 tractors and 1,000 trailers operating in the Midwest and Southeast, completed the session to assess the Tesla Semi’s fit for its operations. The company’s routes typically span 500-600 miles per day, positioning it as an ideal tester for the Semi’s day cab configuration in standard logistics scenarios.
Details remain under mutual NDA, but the meeting reportedly focused on matching the truck to yard, shuttle and regional applications while scrutinizing economics like infrastructure, maintenance and incentives.
What Keller’s executives are saying
CEO Bryan Keller described the approach as methodical. “For us, staying ahead isn’t a headline, it’s a habit. From electrification and yard automation to digital visibility and warehouse technology, our teams are continually pressure-testing what’s next. The Tesla Semi discussion is one more way we evaluate new tools against our standards for safety, uptime, and customer ROI. We don’t chase trends, we pressure-test what works,” Keller said.
Benjamin Pierce, Chief Strategy Officer, echoed these sentiments. “Electrification and next-generation powertrains are part of a much broader transformation. Whether it’s proprietary yard systems like YardLink™, solar and renewable logistics solutions, or real-time vehicle intelligence, Keller’s approach stays the same, test it, prove it, and deploy it only when it strengthens service and total cost for our customers,” Pierce said.
News
Tesla extends FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe by three months
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Tesla appears to be doubling down on its European Full Self-Driving (Supervised) push, with the company extending its demo ride-along program by three months until the end of March 2026. The update seems to have been implemented due to overwhelming demand.
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Extended FSD demonstrations
Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager Ivan Komušanac shared on LinkedIn that the company is offering ride-along experiences in Germany, France and Italy while working toward FSD (Supervised) approval in Europe.
He noted that this provides a great feedback opportunity from the general public, encouraging participants to record and share their experiences. For those unable to book in December, Komušanac teased more slots as “Christmas presents.”
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt highlighted the extension on X, stating that dates now run from December 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, in multiple cities including Stuttgart-Weinstadt, Frankfurt and Düsseldorf in Germany. This suggests that the FSD ride-along program in Europe has officially been extended until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Building momentum for European approval
Replies to Merritt’s posts buzzed with excitement, with users like @AuzyMale noting that Cologne and Düsseldorf are already fully booked. This sentiment was echoed by numerous other Tesla enthusiasts on social media. Calls for the program’s expansion to other European territories have also started gaining steam, with some X users suggesting Switzerland and Finland as the next locations for FSD ride-alongs.
Ultimately, the Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager’s post aligns with the company’s broader FSD efforts in Europe. As per recent reports, Tesla recently demonstrated FSD’s capabilities for Rome officials. Reporters from media outlets in France and Germany have also published positive reviews of FSD’s capabilities on real-world roads.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD
Tesla Semi just got a huge vote of confidence from 300-truck fleet
