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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
Elon Musk
Starlink achieves major milestones in 2025 progress report
Starlink wrapped up 2025 with impressive growth, adding more than 4.6 million new active customers and expanding service to 35 additional countries, territories, and markets.
Starlink wrapped up 2025 with impressive growth, adding more than 4.6 million new active customers and expanding service to 35 additional countries, territories, and markets. The company also completed deployment of its first-generation Direct to Cell constellation, launching over 650 satellites in just 18 months to enable cellular connectivity.
SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s impressive 2025 progress in an extensive report.
Key achievements from Starlink’s 2025 Progress
Starlink connected over 4.6 million new customers with high-speed internet while bringing service to 35 more regions worldwide in 2025. Starlink is now connecting 9.2 million people worldwide. The service achieved this just weeks after hitting its 8 million customer milestone.
Starlink is now available in 155 markets, including areas that are unreachable by traditional ISPs. As per SpaceX, Starlink has also provided over 21 million airline passengers and 20 million cruise passengers with reliable high-speed internet connectivity during their travels.
Starlink Direct to Cell
Starlink’s Direct to Cell constellation, more than 650 satellites strong, has already connected over 12 million people at least once, marking a breakthrough in global mobile coverage.
Starlink Direct to Cell is currently rolled out to 22 countries and 6 continents, with over 6 million monthly customers. Starlink Direct to Cell also has 27 MNO partners to date.
“This year, SpaceX completed deployment of the first generation of the Starlink Direct to Cell constellation, with more than 650 satellites launched to low-Earth orbit in just 18 months. Starlink Direct to Cell has connected more than 12 million people, and counting, at least once, providing life-saving connectivity when people need it most,” SpaceX wrote.
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Tesla Giga Nevada celebrates production of 6 millionth drive unit
To celebrate the milestone, the Giga Nevada team gathered for a celebratory group photo.Â
Tesla’s Giga Nevada has reached an impressive milestone, producing its 6 millionth drive unit as 2925 came to a close.
To celebrate the milestone, the Giga Nevada team gathered for a celebratory group photo.
6 million drive units
The achievement was shared by the official Tesla Manufacturing account on social media platform X. “Congratulations to the Giga Nevada team for producing their 6 millionth Drive Unit!” Tesla wrote.Â
The photo showed numerous factory workers assembled on the production floor, proudly holding golden balloons that spelled out “6000000″ in front of drive unit assembly stations. Elon Musk gave credit to the Giga Nevada team, writing, “Congrats on 6M drive units!” in a post on X.
Giga Nevada’s essential role
Giga Nevada produces drive units, battery packs, and energy products. The facility has been a cornerstone of Tesla’s scaling since opening, and it was the crucial facility that ultimately enabled Tesla to ramp the Model 3 and Model Y. Even today, it serves as Tesla’s core hub for battery and drivetrain components for vehicles that are produced in the United States.
Giga Nevada is expected to support Tesla’s ambitious 2026 targets, including the launch of vehicles like the Tesla Semi and the Cybercab. Tesla will have a very busy 2026, and based on Giga Nevada’s activities so far, it appears that the facility will be equally busy as well.
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Tesla Supercharger network delivers record 6.7 TWh in 2025
The network now exceeds 75,000 stalls globally, and it supports even non-Tesla vehicles across several key markets.
Tesla’s Supercharger Network had its biggest year ever in 2025, delivering a record 6.7 TWh of electricity to vehicles worldwide.
To celebrate its busy year, the official @TeslaCharging account shared an infographic showing the Supercharger Network’s growth from near-zero in 2012 to this year’s impressive milestone.
Record 6.7 TWh delivered in 2025
The bar chart shows steady Supercharger energy delivery increases since 2012. Based on the graphic, the Supercharger Network started small in the mid-2010s and accelerated sharply after 2019, when the Model 3 was going mainstream.Â
Each year from 2020 onward showed significantly more energy delivery, with 2025’s four quarters combining for the highest total yet at 6.7 TWh.
This energy powered millions of charging sessions across Tesla’s growing fleet of vehicles worldwide. The network now exceeds 75,000 stalls globally, and it supports even non-Tesla vehicles across several key markets. This makes the Supercharger Network loved not just by Tesla owners but EV drivers as a whole.
Resilience after Supercharger team changes
2025’s record energy delivery comes despite earlier 2024 layoffs on the Supercharger team, which sparked concerns about the system’s expansion pace. Max de Zegher, Tesla Director of Charging North America, also highlighted that “Outside China, Superchargers delivered more energy than all other fast chargers combined.”
Longtime Tesla owner and FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog noted the achievement as proof of continued momentum post-layoffs. At the time of the Supercharger team’s layoffs in 2024, numerous critics were claiming that Elon Musk was halting the network’s expansion altogether, and that the team only remained because the adults in the room convinced the juvenile CEO to relent.
Such a scenario, at least based on the graphic posted by the Tesla Charging team on X, seems highly implausible.Â
Starlink achieves major milestones in 2025 progress report
Tesla Giga Nevada celebrates production of 6 millionth drive unit
