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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
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Tesla FSD successfully completes full coast-to-coast drive with zero interventions
Tesla community members celebrated the milestone on X, and the feat earned praise from some of the electric vehicle makerâs executives.
A Tesla owner has successfully completed a full coast-to-coast drive across the United States on Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised. The trip was accomplished with zero interventions.
Tesla community members celebrated the milestone on X, and the feat earned praise from some of the electric vehicle makerâs executives.
FSD Coast-to-Coast
The coast-to-coast feat was accomplished by Tesla owner Davis Moss, who drives a stealth gray Model 3 with AI4 hardware. Based on data from the FSD database and a community tracker, the last 10,638.8 miles Moss drove in his Model 3 were completed using FSD 100% of the time. His vehicle is equipped with FSD v14.2.1.25, which was installed 12 days ago.
As per Moss in a celebratory post on X, his Model 3 was able to complete a full coast-to-coast drive across the United States in 2 days and 20 hours. His trip started at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles, CA, and it ended in Myrtle Beach, SC. Overall, his trip spanned 2,732.4 miles.Â
âThis was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 with absolutely 0 disengagements of any kind even for all parking including at Tesla Superchargers,â Moss stated in his post. He also added in later comments that there were zero close calls during the trip.
Tesla community celebrates
The FSD milestone trip was widely lauded by members of the Tesla community, especially since a coast-to-coast drive with zero interventions has been cited by Elon Musk as a target since October 2016, when Autopilot 2.0 was unveiled. At the time, Musk initially estimated that a coast-to-coast drive across the United States should be possible by the end of 2017. Considering Mossâ feat in his Model 3, it appears that Elon Muskâs estimate was not impossible at all. It was just late.
Musk himself celebrated the milestone on X, and so did Tesla VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy, who wrote âWorldâs first fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive, done with Tesla self-driving v14. Congrats and thank you @DavidMoss!â in a post on X. The official Tesla North America account also celebrated the feat, writing âFirst Tesla to drive itself from coast to coast w/ FSD Supervised. 0 interventions, all FSDâ on X.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk: Tesla Model Y is world’s best-selling car for 3rd year in a row
The Model Y has now established an impressive streak that would otherwise have been impossible before Tesla.Â
Elon Musk has announced that the Tesla Model Y has become the world’s best-selling car by volume for the third consecutive year, capping 2025 with another dominant performance.Â
The Model Y has now established an impressive streak that would otherwise have been impossible before Tesla.Â
Three years in a row
Musk posted on X: “Tesla Model Y is now officially the worldâs best-selling car for the third year in a row!” The CEOâs comment echoed an update that Tesla included in its 2025 recap, which highlighted, among other things, the Model Yâs incredible streak.Â
The Model Y has held the title since 2023, outperforming traditional leaders like the Toyota RAV4 and Corolla thanks to its bang-for-the-buck nature and its stellar combination of practicality, performance, and tech. The Model Y is also lauded as one of the safest vehicles on the road, making it an ideal choice for families in key markets such as China.
An impressive 2025
The Model Yâs sales feat in 2025 is especially impressive considering the introduction of the vehicleâs new variant. Teslaâs changeover to the new Model Y across its global factories resulted in sales being paused for some time in the first quarter. As per Teslaâs Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report, âthe changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1.âÂ
This suggests that the Model Yâs sales remained strong in 2025 to the point where it could still claim the title of the worldâs best-selling vehicle by volume, even with its sales being throttled during the first quarter of the year. It would then be interesting to see just how far the Model Y can go in 2026, especially considering the rollout of new variants like the six-seat extended wheelbase Model Y L, the affordable Model Y Standard, and the top-tier Model Y Performance.
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Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
The cinematic montage, posted by the official Tesla account on X, celebrated the company’s progress in EVs, energy, and Robotaxi development.
Tesla has released an epic year-in-review video for 2025, recapping some of its major achievements from refreshed models to autonomy breakthroughs and production ramps.
The cinematic montage, posted by the official Tesla account on X, celebrated the company’s progress in EVs, energy, and Robotaxi development while looking ahead to an even bigger 2026.
Teslaâs 2025 highlights recap
Tesla has had a busy 2025, as highlighted in the recap video. The video opened with Elon Musk explaining the companyâs pursuit of sustainable abundance. A number of milestones were then highlighted, such as the rollout of FSD v14, Optimusâ numerous demos, the opening of the Tesla Diner in Hollywood, LA, the completion of the worldâs first autonomous car delivery, and the launch of the Robotaxi network in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area.
Tesla also highlighted several of its accomplishments over the year. As per the company, the Model Y was the yearâs best-selling vehicle globally again, and Teslas became more affordable than ever thanks to the Model 3 and Model Y Standard. Other key models were also rolled out, such as the refreshed Model S and X, as well as the new Model Y, the new Model Y Performance, and the six-seat, extended wheelbase Model Y L.Â
The Megablock was also unveiled during the year, and the Supercharger Network grew by 18%. Over 1 million Powerwalls were also installed during the year, and the Cybertruck became the first EV truck to get both an IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award and an NHTSA 5-Star safety rating.
Cybercab production confirmed
Interestingly enough, Tesla also confirmed in its 2025 recap video that the production of the Cybercab has started. This bodes well for the vehicle, as it could result in the vehicle really being mass-produced in the first half of 2026. Elon Musk confirmed during the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting that Cybercab production should earnestly start around April 2026.Â
Musk has also noted that the Cybercab will be Teslaâs highest-volume vehicle yet, with the company aiming for an annual production rate of about 2 million units. âIf youâve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesnât look like a normal car manufacturing line,â Musk said earlier this year. âIt looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line. In fact, the line will move so fast that actually people canât even get close to it.â
Tesla FSD successfully completes full coast-to-coast drive with zero interventions
Elon Musk: Tesla Model Y is world’s best-selling car for 3rd year in a row
