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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
-->Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
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Tesla starts laying the groundwork for FSD tests in Austria
The job opening comes as the company pushes regulatory approvals and data collection in new European markets.
Tesla seems to be ramping its efforts to hire key personnel for FSD’s eventual expansion in Europe. This was hinted at in a new job listing for a vehicle operator role in Vienna, Austria.
The job opening comes as the company pushes regulatory approvals and data collection in new European markets.
Vienna’s vehicle operator role
Tesla posted the job for “Fahrer (Vehicle Operator) (m/w/d)” in its Vienna office on its Careers website, seeking candidates to drive and monitor test vehicles as part of the Autopilot and AI team. The role involves collecting real-world driving data to refine Full Self-Driving systems for the country’s local roads. Responsibilities include operating vehicles in urban and highway environments, documenting system performance, among other tasks.
Applicants need a valid Austrian driver’s license and at least two years of driving experience. Fluency in English is essential, along with a familiarity with driver assist systems. Tesla noted that the position offers a minimum annual gross salary of EUR 32,000, though relevant professional experience and qualifications will be taken into account. Similar to other Tesla roles, the position also offers TSLA stock as an incentive.
Tesla’s FSD Push in Europe
Tesla’s FSD efforts in Europe have accelerated in recent months, with significant progress in Spain serving as a key milestone. In July 2025, Spain’s Directorate-General for Traffic launched the ES-AV framework to standardize automated vehicle testing, authorizing Tesla for nationwide FSD trials with 19 vehicles under Phase 3, which allows optional onboard safety operators and remote monitoring.
-->The program, running through November 2027, aims to position Spain as a leader in the field, as DGT stated: “The program is designed to complement and enhance oversight, regulation, research, and transparency efforts, as well as to support innovation and advancements in automotive technology and industry.”
Beyond Spain, Tesla has conducted FSD demonstrations in Germany, France and Italy for consumers, while pursuing national approval in the Netherlands for early 2026.
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Tesla Semi factory looks almost complete during Thanksgiving weekend
Based on recent drone videos, the Tesla Semi factory looks practically ready to start operations.
It appears that the Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is already hard at work preparing for the initial production of the Class 8 all-electric truck. This was, at least, hinted at in a recent drone flyover of the facility from a longtime watcher.
The Tesla Semi factory after Thanksgiving
Drone operator and Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane recently shared some footage he captured of the upcoming facility during the Thanksgiving weekend. Based on his video, it appears that Tesla gave its employees in the area the weekend off. One thing is evident from the video, however, and that is the fact that the Tesla Semi factory looks practically ready to start operations.
The Tesla Semi watcher did point out that the electric vehicle maker is still busy bringing in production equipment into the facility itself. Once these are installed, it would not be surprising if initial production of the Tesla Semi begins.
A new Tesla Semi
The upcoming completion of the Tesla Semi factory near Gigafactory Nevada seems all but inevitable in the coming months. What would be especially interesting, however, would be the vehicles that would be produced on the site. During Elon Musk’s presentation at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, a glimpse of the production Tesla Semi was shown, and it looks quite a bit different than the Class 8 all-electric truck’s classic appearance.
As could be seen in the graphic from the CEO’s presentation, the updated Tesla Semi will feature slim lightbar headlights similar to the new Tesla Model Y, Cybertruck, and the Cybercab. Tesla also teased a number of aerodynamic improvements that increased the truck’s efficiency to 1.7 kWh per mile. Extended camera units, seemingly for FSD, could also be seen in the graphic.
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Tesla scores major hire as Apple scientist moves to Optimus team
Chen, who advanced from individual contributor to technical lead during his time at Apple, noted that he was blown away by Tesla’s efforts and synergy.
Former Apple research scientist Yilun Chen has left the tech giant to join Tesla’s Optimus AI team. Chen, who advanced from individual contributor to technical lead during his time at Apple, noted that he was blown away by Tesla’s efforts and synergy.
Apple veteran closes a major chapter
In a farewell note, Yilun Chen reflected on his tenure at Apple as a period defined by rapid growth and exposure to notable internal projects, some of which remain unreleased. His roles spanned engineering, research, early product incubation, and hands-on prototyping, allowing him to build expertise across both mature and emerging teams.
Chen credited mentors, colleagues, and cross-functional collaborators for shaping his trajectory, calling the experience unforgettable and emphasizing how each team taught him different lessons about scaling technology, guiding product vision, and navigating fast-moving research environments. “Each role has offered me invaluable unique lessons… My deepest gratitude goes to my colleagues, mentors and friends,” he wrote.
Tesla’s Optimus lab secured the hire
Chen said the move to Tesla was driven by the momentum surrounding Optimus, a humanoid robot powered by LLM-driven reasoning and Physical AI. After visiting Tesla’s Optimus lab, he admitted that he was “totally blown away by the scale and sophistication of the Optimus lab and deep dedication of people when I got to visit the office.”
His first week at Tesla, he noted, involved spontaneous deep-tech discussions, a flat team structure, rapid prototyping cycles, and what he called a “crazy ideas with super-fast iterations” culture. Chen emphasized that the team’s ambition, as well as its belief that humanoid robots are now within reach, creates an energy level that feels aimed at changing the world.
-->“You can feel the energy to change the world here,” he wrote in a post on social media.
Tesla starts laying the groundwork for FSD tests in Austria
Tesla Semi factory looks almost complete during Thanksgiving weekend
