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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
Tesla has scaled back driver monitoring to be less naggy with the latest version of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite, which is version 14.3.3.
The latest version is already earning praise from owners, who are reporting that the suite is far less invasive when it comes to keeping drivers from taking their eyes off the road. The first to mention it was notable Tesla community member on X known as Zack, or BLKMDL3.
14.3.3 nags less too https://t.co/IuiWzuYO6O
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2026
Musk confirmed that v14.3.3 was made to nag drivers significantly less, something that Tesla has worked toward in the past and has said with previous versions that it is less likely to push drivers to look ahead, at least after looking away for a few seconds.
This refinement aligns with Tesla’s ongoing push toward unsupervised FSD. The update also brings faster Actual Smart Summon (now up to 8 mph), reliable “Hey Grok” voice commands, richer visualizations, smoother Mad Max acceleration, and an intervention streak counter that rewards consistent use. Reviewers describe the drive as more human-like and confident, with fewer twitches or unnecessary maneuvers.
Musk has repeatedly signaled this direction. In late 2025, he stated that FSD would allow phone use “depending on context of surrounding traffic,” noting safety data would justify relaxing rules so drivers could text in low-risk scenarios like stop-and-go traffic.
We tested this, and even still, the cell phone monitoring really seems to be less active in terms of alerting drivers:
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
Earlier, ahead of v14, Musk promised the system would “nag the driver much less” once safety metrics improved.
In 2023, he confirmed the steering wheel torque nag would be “gradually reduced, proportionate to improved safety,” shifting reliance to the cabin camera. Subsequent updates like v13.2.9 and v12.4 further loosened monitoring, cracking down on workarounds while easing legitimate distractions.
These steps reflect Tesla’s data-driven approach: FSD’s safety record—reportedly averaging millions of miles per crash—now outpaces human drivers in many scenarios, giving the company confidence to dial back interventions. Reduced nags improve usability and trust, encouraging more drivers to rely on the system rather than disengaging out of frustration.
However, there are certainly still some concerns. In many states, it is illegal to handle a cell phone in any way, requiring the use of hands-free devices. In Pennsylvania, it is illegal to use your cell phone at stop lights, which is definitely a step further than using it while the car is actively in motion.
v14.3.3 represents tangible progress. Making FSD less adversarial and more seamless is definitely a step forward, but drivers need to be aware of the dangers of distracted driving. FSD is extremely capable, but it is in no way fully autonomous, nor does its performance warrant owners to take their attention off the road.
Tesla has officially expanded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) suite in Europe once again, as it will now be offered to customer vehicles in Lithuania, marking a significant milestone as the second European Union country to offer the system.
Tesla confirmed FSD’s rollout in Lithuania this morning:
FSD Supervised now rolling out to Teslas in Lithuania 🇱🇹!
Making European roads safer, one by one pic.twitter.com/Uuj0bNG7pP
— Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa (@teslaeurope) May 20, 2026
Tesla showed several clips of Full Self-Driving navigation in Lithuania to mark the announcement, while Lithuanian Transport Minister Juras Taminskas highlighted the system’s potential to assist with lane-keeping, speed adjustment, and traffic tasks on longer drives, while emphasizing that drivers must stay alert and ready to intervene.
Just a few weeks ago, Tesla officially entered Europe with Full Self-Driving in the Netherlands. The expansion of FSD on the continent is now officially underway.
Full Self-Driving’s European Journey
Europe has long posed one of the toughest regulatory challenges for Tesla’s autonomy ambitions due to stringent safety standards under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) framework, particularly UN Regulation 171 for Driver Control Assistance Systems.
The Netherlands’ RDW authority granted the pioneering approval after over 18 months of rigorous testing, including 1.6 million kilometers on European roads and extensive data submissions.
This approval enables mutual recognition across the EU, allowing other member states to adopt it nationally without full re-testing. Lithuania quickly leveraged this mechanism, becoming the second adopter. Tesla positions FSD Supervised as a tool to incrementally improve road safety, with the company claiming it reduces incidents when used properly.
Bottlenecks slowing broader European deployment include fragmented national regulations, varying levels of regulatory skepticism, and requirements for robust driver monitoring. Some EU officials have raised concerns about performance in adverse conditions like icy roads or speeding scenarios, alongside frustrations over Tesla’s public advocacy approach.
Additional hurdles involve data privacy, liability frameworks, and the need for EU-wide harmonization. While countries like Belgium appear to be fast-tracking adoption, larger markets such as Germany, France, and Italy are expected to follow in the coming months, with potential EU-wide progress targeted for later in 2026.
Tesla Full Self-Driving Across the World
As of May, Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is available in approximately ten countries.
In North America, it has been live for years in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. Asia-Pacific additions include Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, while China utilizes what Tesla calls “City Autopilot.” In Europe, the Netherlands and now Lithuania join the list, with more countries mulling the possibility of also approving FSD.
Tesla offers FSD via monthly subscriptions (around €99 in Europe) or one-time purchases (with deadlines approaching in many markets), shifting toward recurring revenue models. Today is the final day Europeans will be able to purchase the suite outright.
This expansion underscores Tesla’s push for global autonomy, starting with supervised and building toward greater capabilities. With Lithuania now online, momentum is building across Europe, though regulatory caution will continue shaping the pace. Owners in approved regions report smoother highway and urban driving, but the system remains Level 2, which requires human oversight.
Elon Musk
Tesla ditches India after years of broken promises
Tesla has ditched its plans to build a factory in India after years of failed negotiations.
Tesla’s long-running effort to establish a manufacturing presence in India is officially over. India’s Minister of Heavy Industries H.D. Kumaraswamy confirmed on May 19, 2026 that Tesla has informed authorities it will not proceed with a manufacturing facility in the country.
Tesla first signaled serious interest in India around 2021, when it began hiring local staff and lobbying the Indian government for lower import tariffs. The ask was straightforward: reduce duties enough for Tesla to test the market with imported vehicles before committing capital to a local factory. India’s position was equally firm, with an ask of Tesla to commit to manufacturing first, then receive tariff relief. Neither side moved, and the talks quietly collapsed.
Tesla to open first India experience center in Mumbai on July 15
India had offered a policy that would reduce import duties from 110% down to 15% on EVs priced above $35,000, provided companies committed at least $500 million toward local manufacturing investment within three years. Tesla declined to participate. The tariff standoff was only part of the problem. Analysts pointed to significant gaps in India’s local supply chain, inadequate industrial infrastructure, and a mismatch between Tesla’s premium pricing and the purchasing power of India’s automotive market as additional factors that made the investment difficult to justify.
First signs of an unraveling relationship came in April 2024, when Musk abruptly cancelled a planned trip to India where he was set to meet Prime Minister Modi and announce Tesla’s market entry. By July 2024, Fortune reported that Tesla executives had stopped contacting Indian government officials entirely. The government at that point understood Tesla had capital constraints and no plans to invest.
The more fundamental issue is that Tesla’s existing factories are currently operating at approximately 60% capacity, making a commitment to building new manufacturing capacity in a new market difficult to defend to investors. Tesla will continue selling imported Model Y vehicles through its existing showrooms in Mumbai, Delhi, Gurugram, and Bengaluru, but local production is no longer part of the plan.
Tesla scales back driver monitoring with latest Full Self-Driving release
Tesla Full Self-Driving expands in Europe, entering its second country
