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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.
The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.
First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.
While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.
It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.
Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.
If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.
Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.
Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.
Elon Musk
SpaceX targets 150Mbps per user for upgraded Starlink Direct-to-Cell
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
SpaceX is targeting peak download speeds of 150Mbps per user for its next-generation Direct-to-Cell Starlink service. The update was shared by SpaceX Spectrum & Regulatory Affairs Lead Udrivolf Pica during the International Telecommunication Union’s Space Connect conference.
“We are aiming at peak speeds of 150Mbps per user,” Pica said during the conference. “So something incredible if you think about the link budgets from space to the mobile phone.”
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
Today, SpaceX’s cellular Starlink service, offered in partnership with T-Mobile under the T-Satellite brand, provides speeds of roughly 4Mbps per user. The service is designed primarily for texts, low-resolution video calls, and select apps in locations that traditionally have no cellular service.
By comparison, Ookla data shows median 5G download speeds of approximately 309Mbps for T-Mobile and 172Mbps for AT&T in the United States, as noted in a PCMag report. While 150Mbps would still trail the fastest terrestrial 5G networks, it would place satellite-to-phone broadband much closer to conventional carrier performance, even in remote areas.
Pica indicated that the upgraded system would support “video, voice, and data services, clearly,” moving beyond emergency connectivity and basic messaging use cases.
To reach that target, SpaceX plans to upgrade its existing Starlink Direct-to-Cell satellites and add significant new capacity. The company recently acquired access to radio spectrum from EchoStar, which Pica described as key to expanding throughput.
“More spectrum means a bigger pipeline, and this means that we can expand what we can do with partners. We can expand the quality of service. And again, we can do cellular broadband basically, cellular broadband use cases, like AI or daily connectivity needs,” he stated.
SpaceX has also requested regulatory approval to deploy 15,000 additional Direct-to-Cell satellites, beyond the roughly 650 currently supporting the system. The upgraded architecture is expected to begin rolling out in late 2027.
News
Tesla seeks approval to test FSD Supervised in new Swedish city
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
As per local outlet Jönköpings-Posten, Tesla has contacted the municipality with a request to begin FSD (Supervised) tests in the city. The company has already received approval to test its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software in several Swedish municipalities, as well as on the national road network.
Sofia Bennerstål, Tesla’s Head of Public Policy for Northern Europe, confirmed that an application has been submitted for FSD’s potential tests in Jönköping.
“I can confirm that we have submitted an application, but I cannot say much more about it,” Bennerstål told the news outlet. She also stated that Tesla is “satisfied with the tests” in the region so far.
The planned tests in Jönköping would involve a limited number of Tesla-owned vehicles. Trained Tesla safety drivers would remain behind the wheel and be prepared to intervene if necessary.
Tesla previously began testing in Nacka municipality after receiving local approval. At the time, the company stated that cooperation between authorities, municipalities, and industry enables technological progress and helps integrate future transport systems into real-world traffic conditions, as noted in an Allt Om Elbil report.
If approved, Jönköping would become the latest Swedish municipality to allow local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing.
Tesla’s Swedish testing program is part of the company’s efforts to validate its supervised autonomous driving software in everyday traffic environments. Municipal approvals allow Tesla to gather data in urban settings that include roundabouts, complex intersections, and mixed traffic conditions.
Sweden has become an increasingly active testing ground for Tesla’s driver-assistance software in Europe, with regulatory coordination between local authorities and national agencies enabling structured pilot programs.
Elon Musk
Microsoft partners with Starlink to expand rural internet access worldwide
The update was shared ahead of Mobile World Congress.
Microsoft has announced a new collaboration with Starlink as part of its expanding digital access strategy, following the company’s claim that it has extended internet connectivity coverage to more than 299 million people worldwide.
The update was shared ahead of Mobile World Congress, where Microsoft detailed how it surpassed its original goal of bringing internet access to 250 million people by the end of 2025.
In a blog post, Microsoft confirmed that it is now working with Starlink to expand connectivity in rural and hard-to-reach regions.
“Through our collaboration with Starlink, Microsoft is combining low-Earth orbit satellite connectivity with community-based deployment models and local ecosystem partnerships,” the company wrote.
The partnership is designed to complement Microsoft’s existing work with local internet providers and infrastructure companies across Africa, Latin America, and India, among other areas. Microsoft noted that traditional infrastructure alone cannot meet demand in some regions, making low-Earth orbit satellite connectivity an important addition.
Kenya was cited as an early example. Working with Starlink and local provider Mawingu Networks, Microsoft is supporting connectivity for 450 community hubs in rural and underserved areas. These hubs include farmer cooperatives, aggregation centers, and digital access facilities intended to support agricultural productivity and AI-enabled services.
Microsoft stated that 2.2 billion people globally remain offline, and that connectivity gaps risk widening as AI adoption accelerates.
Starlink’s expanding constellation, now numbering more than 9,700 satellites in orbit, provides near-global coverage, making it one of the few systems capable of delivering broadband to remote regions without relying on terrestrial infrastructure.
Starlink is expected to grow even more in the coming years as well, especially as SpaceX transitions its fleet to Starship, which is capable of carrying significantly larger payloads compared to its current workhorse, the Falcon 9.
SpaceX targets 150Mbps per user for upgraded Starlink Direct-to-Cell
Tesla seeks approval to test FSD Supervised in new Swedish city
