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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
SpaceXAI announced today that it had signed an agreement with Anthropic to give the company access to its Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.
It is a monumental deal as Anthropic will gain access to all of the compute at the plant, delivering more than 300 megawatts of power and over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs within the month.
Anthropic’s Claude AI account on X announced the partnership:
“We’ve agreed to a partnership with SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity. This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.”
The company is also:
- Doubling Claude Code’s 5-hour rate limits for Pro, Max, and Team plans;
- Removing the peak hours limit reduction on Claude Code for Pro and Max plans; and
- Substantially raising its API rate limits for Opus models.
We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity.
This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.
— Claude (@claudeai) May 6, 2026
SpaceX also published its own release on the new agreement, noting that it is “the only organization with the launch cadence, mass-to-orbit economics, and constellation operations experience to make orbital compute a near-term engineering program rather than a research concept.”
CEO Elon Musk also commented on the partnership and shed light on intense meetings he had with senior members of Anthropic last week, stating, “nobody set on my evil detector.”
Same here.
By way of background for those who care, I spent a lot of time last week with senior members of the Anthropic team to understand what they do to ensure Claude is good for humanity and was impressed.
Everyone I met was highly competent and cared a great deal about…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 6, 2026
This has turned the argument that SpaceX is as much an AI company as a space exploration company into a very valid argument:
SpaceX is following in Tesla’s footsteps in a way nobody expected
Nevertheless, this is an incredibly valuable and important move in the grand scheme of things. AI scaling is fundamentally bottlenecked by compute, and demand for Claude has surged, bringing terrestrial power grids, land, and cooling operations hitting limits everywhere.
Anthropic has been aggressively signing multiple large-scale deals to be competitive in the space, including:
- Up to 5GW with Amazon
- 5GW with Google and Broadcom
- Strategic $30b Azure deal with Microsoft/NVIDIA
- $50b U.S. infrastructure investment with Fluidstack
Access to Colossus 1 gives Anthropic immediate relief on NVIDIA GPU capacity. For SpaceXAI, it turns its rapid buildout into revenue. It also showcases its ability to deliver at world-leading speed and scale.
Most importantly, it plants the seed that its much larger vision, orbital AI compute, is totally viable.
Starlink V3 satellites could enable SpaceX’s orbital computing plans: Musk
Within the month, Anthropic will begin using 100 percent of Colossus 1’s compute, directly expanding capacity for Claude Pro and Max subscribers and the API. This means fewer limits, faster responses, and support for heavier workloads.
In the long term, meaning 2026 and beyond, there will be a continued rollout of other multi-GW deals Anthropic has signed, and an early exploration of orbital compute with SpaceXAI.
News
Tesla unveils mysterious prototype at Giga Texas: Is the Model Y L coming to America?
The Model Y L has been available in China for some time, but Americans are wondering when it will potentially come to the United States, offering a larger version of the best-selling vehicle in the world, as the Model X is officially phased out.
Tesla unveiled a mysterious prototype, covered up between a Model Y and a Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas, perhaps giving yet another hint that the Model Y L is coming to America.
The Model Y L has been available in China for some time, but Americans are wondering when it will potentially come to the United States, offering a larger version of the best-selling vehicle in the world, as the Model X is officially phased out.
Giga Texas observer and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer captured an image of the vehicle on May 6, showing a fully-covered prototype parked alongside a standard Model Y and a Cybertruck.
This mystery Tesla is covered at Gigafactory Texas
What do you think it is? https://t.co/l5WVKLi9yM pic.twitter.com/CcOybDkCkn
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) May 6, 2026
From top-down and angled views, the prototype appears nearly identical in scale to the Model Y but reveals noticeably distinct rear proportions—an elongated rear door that stretches farther over the wheel arch and rear glass that flows uninterrupted to the spoiler lip.
The side-by-side placement provides an immediate size reference. The mystery vehicle sits comfortably between the compact Model Y and the massive Cybertruck, suggesting it occupies a practical middle ground for families seeking more interior room without jumping to a full-size pickup.
Enthusiasts quickly took to social media with guesses ranging from an extended-wheelbase Model Y to a potential station-wagon variant.
The sight of this prototype follows an earlier look at another shrouded body-in-white resting in a wooden shipping crate at the Giga Texas plant in late March.
That prototype appeared to display an elongated silhouette. Some analysis seems to show nearly exact dimensions as to what is reported for the Model Y L in the Chinese market, approximately 4.98 meters long with a 3.04-meter wheelbase, roughly seven inches longer overall than the U.S.-spec Model Y. The rear-door extension and glass-to-spoiler design were identical to the current sighting:
The Model Y L has already proven popular in China, where it launched in six- and seven-seat configurations and quickly ranked among the top-selling mid-to-large SUVs. Owners enjoy roughly 10 percent more cargo space and enhanced family versatility.
Tesla has remained silent on U.S. plans other than CEO Elon Musk saying it could come in late 2026, but localizing production at Giga Texas would make strategic sense.
With the Model X phase-out and steady Model Y output already humming along expanded lines, a longer-wheelbase variant could add tens of thousands of annual deliveries without major retooling.
The latest sighting arrives amid Tesla’s broader push to refresh its lineup. Whether this prototype represents the long-rumored Model Y L, a subtle Juniper-style update, or something entirely new remains unconfirmed.
Yet the consistent visual cues—precise dimensional match, distinctive rear styling, and strategic placement at Giga Texas—point strongly toward an extended Model Y designed for American families who want extra space without sacrificing the Model Y’s efficiency and affordability.Tesla watchers will be monitoring future drone flights closely.
If the prototype is indeed the Model Y L, it could mark a significant expansion of the company’s best-selling vehicle and deliver the extra room many U.S. buyers have been requesting for years. For now, the blue tarp keeps its secrets—but the clues are getting harder to hide.
News
Tesla Roadster gets an update, but not the one fans were looking for
Tesla has quietly filed a new trademark application for its next-generation Roadster, giving enthusiasts their first official glimpse of fresh branding for the long-teased electric supercar.
Tesla has been slow to show its hand regarding the massive project that is the Roadster, but it is now coming forth with a new update.
However, it is probably not the one fans were looking for.
Tesla has quietly filed a new trademark application for its next-generation Roadster, giving enthusiasts their first official glimpse of fresh branding for the long-teased electric supercar.
The February 3 filing includes an inverted triangular badge with the word “ROADSTER” centered above four vertical lines that, according to the application, represent “speed, propulsion, heat, or wind.”
A sleek, angular wordmark and a minimalist curved-line silhouette hinting at the car’s aerodynamic shape round out the trio of marks.
I found something cool. Tesla has filed a new trademark application for its next-generation Roadster. It could be the new Roadster logo/badge.
The filing says the lines depict speed, propulsion, heat or wind.
(I took the liberty of making the logo red. Trademark filings are… pic.twitter.com/W9JSDwTRL7
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 6, 2026
For a program that began with Elon Musk’s 2017 reveal, this is tangible forward motion. The original Roadster proved EVs could be thrilling; the next generation aims higher, with promises of sub-two-second 0-60 mph acceleration and, in its most extreme configuration, optional SpaceX cold-gas thrusters for rocket-like thrust.
The new trademarks suggest Tesla is now locking down the visual identity that will accompany those headline specs, as well as a small hint that maybe we’re finally getting close. However, the company has not revealed any progress on the vehicle itself or its specs to the public.
It continues to tease with developments like this one.
That said, the update lands with a familiar bittersweet note. Fans have waited nearly a decade since the initial unveiling. Production was once eyed for 2020, then 2021, then later still. In the intervening years, Tesla has delivered the Model Y, Cybertruck, Semi, and major autonomy advances while scaling its energy business.
The Roadster has taken a back seat, and the delays have been genuinely disappointing. Many longtime supporters have grown frustrated watching renderings and hearsay while other marques roll out ever-faster electric sports cars.
Yet, the Roadster program itself still sparks genuine excitement. It represents the purest expression of Tesla’s “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” mission—pushing performance boundaries to prove EVs can outperform anything with an engine.
The new branding, modest as it is, keeps that promise alive. It tells owners and prospective buyers that Tesla hasn’t forgotten the car that started it all.
No one would blame fans for wanting more than a logo right now. But in an industry where many concepts never leave the drawing board, the fact that Tesla continues to invest in and protect the Roadster’s identity is reason for measured optimism.
The wait has tested patience, but when the next-generation Roadster finally arrives, the new badge may well adorn one of the most exciting cars ever built. For those who have followed the journey this far, that payoff still feels worth it.
SpaceXAI signs agreement with Anthropic for massive AI supercomputer access
Tesla unveils mysterious prototype at Giga Texas: Is the Model Y L coming to America?
