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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
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Tesla adjusts Online Design Studio for easier trade-in process
Tesla has a great trade-in program that allows you to give the company your vehicle in exchange for cash, even if it’s not an EV. Their trades are mostly fair, but the company seems to undervalue its own vehicles, and there have been plenty of complaints over offers in the past.
Tesla has adjusted its Online Design Studio to make for an easier trade-in process, reflecting the details of the exchange for a more accurate reflection of payment terms.
Tesla has a great trade-in program that allows you to give the company your vehicle in exchange for cash, even if it’s not an EV. Their trades are mostly fair, but the company seems to undervalue its own vehicles, and there have been plenty of complaints over offers in the past.
Trade-ins are usually given by submitting vehicle details, then Tesla sends an email with an offer. Offers are non-negotiable, but do adjust over time, although the latest offer is valid for 30 days.
I traded my ICE vehicle for a Tesla Model Y: here’s how it went
Knowing your new Tesla’s cash price, leasing or loan details, and monthly payment information used to be done by the car buyer. From personal experience, I simply subtracted my trade-in from the cash price of the Tesla Model Y, and I plugged those numbers into the payment calculator.
Now, Tesla is implementing the trade-in process directly into the Design Studio. It will adjust the price of the car and the different monthly payment methods automatically:
Trade-in estimates available directly on our configurator in few states including CA, will cover all of US and Canada next week.
For loyalty customers, if their trade-in VIN is eligible for any loyalty credit, the same will be applied to the estimate. pic.twitter.com/7097vPleMf
— Raj Jegannathan (@r_jegaa) November 8, 2025
The change is already noticed in a handful of states, including California, but it has not rolled out across the board quite yet. It will be implemented in all of the U.S., as well as Canada, this coming week.
The trade-in process is very simple, and after you accept your offer, you simply drop your vehicle off during the delivery process. Making this simple change will be greatly appreciated by owners.
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Tesla confirms Robotaxi is heading to five new cities in the U.S.
After launching in Austin, Texas, in late June and the Bay Area of California just a few weeks later, Tesla has been attempting to expand its Robotaxi suite to new states and cities in the U.S., and even outside of the country.
Tesla Robotaxi will hit five new cities in the United States in the coming months, the company confirmed.
After launching in Austin, Texas, in late June and the Bay Area of California just a few weeks later, Tesla has been attempting to expand its Robotaxi suite to new states and cities in the U.S., and even outside of the country.
The Robotaxi suite is a ride-hailing service Tesla offers, but the details of it change with each jurisdiction, as regulations vary. For example, in Austin, Tesla can operate the Robotaxi suite without anyone in the driver’s seat, as long as the vehicle does not enter a freeway.
Credit: Tesla
In the Bay Area, a Safety Monitor rides in the driver’s seat, essentially acting as the vehicle operator with Full Self-Driving controlling the car.
The local regulations and how Tesla handles them will continue to be a relevant part of the discussion, especially as the company aims to expand the Robotaxi program to different areas. This has been a primary focus of the company for several months, especially within the United States.
CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla was aiming to launch Robotaxi in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. However, the company detailed five specific cities where it will launch Robotaxi next during the Annual Shareholder Meeting on Thursday.
Tesla will launch Robotaxi in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami next, broadening its Service Area for the suite to more major cities across the U.S.
It has said it plans to offer the service to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, but it does not seem as if it will expand to more than a handful of cities this year, which is still tremendous progress, all things considered.
As far as autonomy is concerned, Tesla has always had lofty expectations and has made some even loftier statements.
At the Shareholder Meeting, Musk said that the company would likely be able to enable vehicle owners to text while the vehicle drives, alleviating them from potentially having some of the responsibility they have behind the wheel.
Tesla says texting and driving capability is coming ‘in a month or two’
It is not confirmed that Tesla will roll this out in the next few months, but Musk said there is a possibility.
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Tesla launches another new Model Y trim at a bargain price with massive range
It is the second most-affordable Model Y trim level in China, trailing the base Rear-Wheel-Drive and coming in under the All-Wheel-Drive.
Tesla has launched yet another new Model Y trim level, but this time it is in China, and it is at a bargain price.
It also has an insane range rating.
On Friday, Tesla launched the new Model Y Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive in China, priced at 288,500 yuan ($40,500), an incredible deal considering it is not a stripped-down version of the vehicle like the Model Y Standard.
🚨🚨 Tesla’s new China-launched Model Y LR RWD offers 821 km (510 miles) CLTC range with 78.4 kWh CATL battery, beating AWD’s 750 km.
At 288,500 yuan ($40,500 USD), it fits between base RWD (593 km, 263,500 yuan) and AWD (313,500 yuan) for affordable long-range EVs.
CLTC… https://t.co/rhKVzvUWlu pic.twitter.com/ZOoelziJ8T
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 8, 2025
It is the second most-affordable Model Y trim level in China, trailing the base Rear-Wheel-Drive and coming in under the All-Wheel-Drive.
The big appeal with this new Model Y trim is obviously its price, but its range rating is also one of the best we’ve seen. Rated at 821 kilometers on the CLTC scale, it converts to 510 miles. It uses a 78.4 kWh CATL battery.
Converted to real-world range, however, that 821-kilometer range rated by the CLTC actually is equivalent to about 357 miles on the EPA scale, which is still a very respectable number and comes in at a higher range than the Long Range All-Wheel-Drive configuration that is available in the U.S.
Tesla has truly brought a wide variety of Model Y trims to the Chinese market, including a new Model Y L configuration that features a slightly longer wheelbase, as well as additional interior features like extended thigh legrests and captain’s chairs with armrests.
It is unclear whether Tesla will bring a Premium Rear-Wheel-Drive option of the Model Y to the U.S., especially as it has already rolled out four configurations of the all-electric crossover in the market. With the new Standard offerings, Tesla will likely keep its lineup as simple as possible.
However, the company has hinted that there is a slim possibility the Model Y L could come to the U.S. sometime late next year, but CEO Elon Musk said that it is not a guarantee.
Tesla is more concerned with self-driving efforts in the U.S., and despite calls from customers for larger vehicles, it does not seem concerned with making them available, at least not for now.
Tesla adjusts Online Design Studio for easier trade-in process
Tesla confirms Robotaxi is heading to five new cities in the U.S.
Tesla launches another new Model Y trim at a bargain price with massive range
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