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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
A plant manager at a Tesla factory just tipped off the fact that the company will begin production of an affordable model in the coming weeks, all but confirming that a new car will be unveiled tomorrow.
Tesla has been teasing some kind of product unveiling for October 7 on its social media accounts. It has now dropped two separate indications that a new product is coming on its X account.
Fans have been anticipating two things: either the company’s planned affordable model, which has been codenamed “E41,” or the Roadster, a long-awaited vehicle that Tesla has kept under wraps for much longer than it would likely care to admit.
Tesla all but confirms that affordable Model Y is coming Tuesday
André Thierig, Tesla’s plant manager at the German production plant Gigafactory Berlin, tipped off what is likely coming tomorrow at the product unveiling as he revealed during an internal event today that a light version of the Model Y will begin series production and deliveries “in a few weeks.”
Thierig’s revealing of plans was reported by Handelsblatt, a German media outlet.
The description of a “light version of the Model Y” aligns with what CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year, as well as what we have seen on public roads, both covered and uncovered.
Last week, we finally saw an uncovered version of what the affordable model likely is, as it was cruising around near Gigafactory Texas, just outside of Austin.
Tesla coding shows affordable model details, including potential price
Musk said earlier this year, candidly during an Earnings Call, that the affordable model Tesla planned to release was a Model Y.
“It’s just a Model Y. Let the cat out of the bag there,” Musk said.
The images of what we assumed to be the affordable model lined up with Musk’s candid statement:
🚨 It looks like the new affordable Tesla Model Y was spotted near Giga Texas
Model Y body with the Model 3 fascia, no glass roof, and looks as if there is a front bumper camera!
Should be coming soon! https://t.co/UAXQMHjM23 pic.twitter.com/9lC5te9GnW
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 3, 2025
Tesla is expected to unveil its affordable model tomorrow during the planned event, which has been teased twice. Pricing and other details are still pending, but the company is expected to reveal this information tomorrow.
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Three things Tesla needs to improve with Full Self-Driving v14 release
These are the three things I’d like to see Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 improve.
As Tesla plans to release Full Self-Driving version 14 this week after CEO Elon Musk detailed a short delay in its rollout, there are several things that continue to plague what are extremely well-done drives by the suite.
Tesla Full Self-Driving has truly revolutionized the way I travel, and I use it for the majority of my driving. However, it does a few things really poorly, and these issues are consistent across many drives, not just one.
Tesla Full Self-Driving impressions after three weeks of ownership
Musk has called FSD v14 “sentient” and hinted that it would demonstrate drastic improvements from v13. The current version is very good, and it commonly performs some of the more difficult driving tasks well. I have found that it does simple, yet crucial things, somewhat poorly.
These are the three things I’d like to see Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 improve.
Navigation, Routing, and Logical Departure
My biggest complaint is how poorly the navigation system chooses its route of departure. I’ve noticed this specifically from where I Supercharge. The car routinely takes the most illogical route to leave the Supercharger, a path that would require an illegal U-turn to get on the correct route.
I managed to capture this yesterday when leaving the Supercharger to go on a lengthy ride using Full Self-Driving:
You’ll see I overrode the attempt to turn right out of the lot by pushing the turn signal to turn left instead. If you go right, you’ll go around the entire convenience store and end up approaching a traffic light with a “No U-Turn” sign. The car has tried to initiate a U-turn at this light before.
If you’re attempting to get on the highway, you simply have to leave the convenience store on a different route (the one I made the vehicle go in).
It then attempted to enter the right lane when the car needed to remain in the left lane to turn left and access the highway. I manually took over and then reactivated Full Self-Driving when it was in the correct lane.
To achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, such as navigating out of a parking lot and taking the logical route, while also avoiding illegal maneuvers, is incredibly crucial.
Too Much Time in the Left Lane on the Highway
It is illegal to cruise in the left lane on highways in all 50 U.S. states, although certain states enforce it more than others. Colorado, for example, has a law that makes it illegal to drive in the left lane on highways with a speed limit of 65 MPH or greater unless you are passing.
In Florida, it is generally prohibited to use the left lane unless you are passing a slower vehicle.
In Pennsylvania, where I live, cruising in the left lane is illegal on limited-access highways with two or more lanes. Left lanes are designed for passing, while right lanes are intended for cruising.
Full Self-Driving, especially on the “Hurry” drive mode, which drives most realistically, cruises in the left lane, making it in violation of these cruising laws. There are many instances when it has a drastic amount of space between cars in the right lane, and it simply chooses to stay in the left lane:
The clip above is nearly 12 minutes in length without being sped up. In real-time, it had plenty of opportunities to get over and cruise in the left lane. It did not do this until the end of the video.
Tesla should implement a “Preferred Highway Cruising Lane” option for two and three-lane highways, allowing drivers to choose the lane that FSD cruises in.
It also tends to pass vehicles in the slow lane at a speed that is only a mile an hour or two higher than that other car.
This holds up traffic in the left lane; if it is going to overtake a vehicle in the right lane, it needs to do it faster and with more assertiveness. It should not take more than 5-10 seconds to pass a car. Anything longer is disrupting the flow of highway traffic.
Parking
Full Self-Driving does a great job of getting you to your destination, but parking automatically once you’re there has been a pain point.
As I was arriving at my destination, it pulled in directly on top of the line separating two parking spots. It does this frequently when I arrive at my house as well.
Here’s what it looked like yesterday:
Parking is one of the easier tasks Full Self-Driving performs, and Autopark does extremely well when the driver manually chooses the spot. I use Autopark on an almost daily basis.
However, if I do not assist the vehicle in choosing a spot, its performance pulling into spaces is pretty lackluster.
With a lot of hype surrounding v14, Tesla has built up considerable anticipation among owners who want to see FSD perform the easy tasks well. As of now, I believe it does the harder things better than the easy things.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk teases previously unknown Tesla Optimus capability
Elon Musk revealed over the weekend that the humanoid robot should be able to utilize Tesla’s dataset for Full Self-Driving (FSD) to operate cars not manufactured by Tesla.
Elon Musk revealed a new capability that Tesla Optimus should have, and it is one that will surely surprise many people, as it falls outside the CEO’s scope of his several companies.
Tesla Optimus is likely going to be the biggest product the company ever develops, and Musk has even predicted that it could make up about 80 percent of the company’s value in the coming years.
Teasing the potential to eliminate any trivial and monotonous tasks from human life, Optimus surely has its appeal.
However, Musk revealed over the weekend that the humanoid robot should be able to utilize Tesla’s dataset for Full Self-Driving (FSD) to operate cars not manufactured by Tesla:
Probably
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 5, 2025
FSD would essentially translate from operation in Tesla vehicles from a driverless perspective to Optimus, allowing FSD to basically be present in any vehicle ever made. Optimus could be similar to a personal chauffeur, as well as an assistant.
Optimus has significant hype behind it, as Tesla has been meticulously refining its capabilities. Along with Musk’s and other executives’ comments about its potential, it’s clear that there is genuine excitement internally.
This past weekend, the company continued to stoke hype behind Optimus by showing a new video of the humanoid robot learning Kung Fu and training with a teacher:
🚨 Some have wondered if this is ‘staged’ or if Optimus is teleoperated here
Elon Musk said this is completely AI https://t.co/N69uDD6OVM
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 4, 2025
Tesla plans to launch its Gen 3 version of Optimus in the coming months, and although we saw a new-look robot just last month, thanks to a video from Salesforce CEO and Musk’s friend Marc Benioff, we have been told that this was not a look at the company’s new iteration.
Instead, Gen 3’s true design remains a mystery for the general public, but with the improvements between the first two iterations already displayed, we are sure the newest version will be something special.
Tesla plant manager tips off affordable model production
Three things Tesla needs to improve with Full Self-Driving v14 release
Elon Musk teases previously unknown Tesla Optimus capability
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