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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’

Credit: Reddit u/42755663

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Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.

Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.

2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.

Tesla reaches 500,000 production and delivery goal for 2020

Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”

Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”

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Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.

Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.

Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.

Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman

In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.

“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.

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Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.

Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms

“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”

The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.

Hindsight is 2020

With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk is now a remote DOGE worker: White House Chief of Staff

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is no longer working from the West Wing.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

In a conversation with the New York Post, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles stated that Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is no longer working from the West Wing.

As per the Chief of Staff, Musk is still working for DOGE—as a remote worker, at least.

Remote Musk

In her conversation with the publication, Wiles stated that she still talks with Musk. And while the CEO is now working remotely, his contributions still have the same net effect. 

“Instead of meeting with him in person, I’m talking to him on the phone, but it’s the same net effect,” Wiles stated, adding that “it really doesn’t matter much” that the CEO “hasn’t been here physically.” She also noted that Musk’s team will not be leaving.

“He’s not out of it altogether. He’s just not physically present as much as he was. The people that are doing this work are here doing good things and paying attention to the details. He’ll be stepping back a little, but he’s certainly not abandoning it. And his people are definitely not,” Wiles stated.

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Back to Tesla

Musk has been a frequent presence in the White House during the Trump administration’s first 100 days in office. But during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call, Musk stated that he would be spending substantially less time with DOGE and substantially more time with Tesla. Musk did emphasize, however, that DOGE’s work is extremely valuable and critical.

“I think I’ll continue to spend a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the President would like me to do so and as long as it is useful. But starting next month, I’ll be allocating probably more of my time to Tesla and now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done,” Musk stated.

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Elon Musk

Tariff reprieve might be ‘Tesla-friendly,’ but it’s also an encouragement to others

Tesla stands to benefit from the tariff reprieve, but it has some work cut out for it as well.

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tesla employee
(Photo: Tesla)

After Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick made adjustments to the automotive tariff program that was initially announced, many quickly pointed to the reprieve as “Tesla-friendly.”

While that may be the case right now, it was also a nudge of encouragement to other companies, Tesla included, to source parts from the U.S. in an effort to strengthen domestic manufacturing. Many companies are close, and it will only take a handful of improvements to save themselves from tariffs on their cars as well.

Yesterday, Sec. Lutnick confirmed that cars manufactured with at least 85 percent of domestic content will face zero tariffs. Additionally, U.S. automakers would receive credit up to 15 percent of the value of vehicles to offset the cost of imported parts.

Big Tesla win? Sec Lutnick says cars with 85% domestic content will face zero tariffs

“This is ‘finish your cars in America and you win’,” Lutnick said.

Many were quick to point out that only three vehicles currently qualify for this zero-tariff threshold: all three are Teslas.

However, according to Kelley Blue Book’s most recent study that revealed who makes the most American cars, there are a lot of vehicles that are extremely close to also qualifying for these tariff reductions.

Tesla has three vehicles that are within five percent, while Ford, Honda, Jeep, Chevrolet, GMC, and Volkswagen have many within just ten percent of the threshold.

Tesla completely dominates Kogod School’s 2024 Made in America Auto Index

It is within reach for many.

Right now, it is easy to see why some people might think this is a benefit for Tesla and Tesla only.

But it’s not, because Tesla has its Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X just a few percentage points outside of that 85 percent cutoff. They, too, will feel the effects of the broader strategy that the Trump administration is using to prioritize domestic manufacturing and employment. More building in America means more jobs for Americans.

Credit: Tesla

However, other companies that are very close to the 85 percent cutoff are only a few components away from also saving themselves the hassle of the tariffs.

Ford has the following vehicles within just five percent of the 85 percent threshold:

  • Ford Mustang GT automatic (80%)
  • Ford Mustang GT 5.0 (80%)
  • Ford Mustang GT Coupe Premium (80%)

Honda has several within ten percent:

  • Honda Passport All-Wheel-Drive (76.5%)
  • Honda Passport Trailsport (76.5)

Jeep has two cars:

  • Jeep Wrangler Rubicon (76%)
  • Jeep Wrangler Sahara (76%)

Volkswagen has one with the ID.4 AWD 82-kWh (75.5%). GMC has two at 75.5% with the Canyon AT4 Crew Cab 4WD and the Canyon Denali Crew Cab 4WD.

Chevrolet has several:

  • Chevrolet Colorado 2.7-liter (75.5%)
  • Chevrolet Colorado LT Crew Cab 2WD 2.7-liter (75.5%)
  • Chevrolet Colorado Z71 Crew Cab 4WD 2.7-liter (75.5%)

These companies are close to reaching the 85% threshold, but adjustments need to be made to work toward that number.

Anything from seats to fabric to glass can be swapped out for American-made products, making these cars more domestically sourced and thus qualifying them for the zero-tariff boundary.

Frank DuBois of American University said that manufacturers like to see stability in their relationships with suppliers and major trade partners. He said that Trump’s tariff plan could cause “a period of real instability,” but it will only be temporary.

Now is the time to push American manufacturing forward, solidifying a future with more U.S.-made vehicles and creating more domestic jobs. Tesla will also need to scramble to make adjustments to its vehicles that are below 85%.

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Tesla Cybertruck RWD production in full swing at Giga Texas

Videos of several freshly produced Cybertruck LR RWD units were shared on social media platform X.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

It appears that Tesla is indeed ramping the production of the Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (LR RWD), the most affordable variant of the brutalist all-electric pickup truck.

Videos of several freshly produced Cybertruck LR RWD units were shared on social media platform X.

Giga Texas Footage

As per longtime Tesla watcher Joe Tegtmeyer, Giga, Texas, was a hotbed of activity when he conducted his recent drone flyover. Apart from what seemed to be Cybercab castings being gathered in the complex, a good number of Cybertruck LR RWD units could also be seen in the facility’s staging area. The Cybertruck LR RWD units are quite easy to spot since they are not equipped with the motorized tonneau cover that is standard on the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

The presence of the Cybertruck LR RWD units in Giga Texas’ staging area suggests that Tesla is ramping the production of the base all-electric pickup truck. This bodes well for the vehicle, which is still premium priced despite missing a good number of features that are standard in the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

Cybertruck Long Range RWD Specs

The Cybertruck LR RWD is priced at $69,990 before incentives, making it $10,000 more affordable than the Cybertruck AWD. For its price, the Cybertruck Long Range RWD offers a range of 350 miles per charge if equipped with its 18” standard Wheels. It can also add up to 147 miles of range in 15 minutes using a Tesla Supercharger.

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Much of the cost-cutting measures taken by Tesla are evident in the cabin of the Cybertruck LR RWD. This could be seen in its textile seats, standard console, seven-speaker audio system with no active noise cancellation, and lack of a 9.4” second-row display. It is also missing the motorized tonneau cover, the 2x 120V and 1x 240V power outlets on the bed, and the 2x 120V power outlets in the cabin. It is also equipped with an adaptive coil spring suspension instead of the adaptive air suspension in the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

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