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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
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Tesla offers tasty Supercharging incentive as Q3 push continues

Tesla is offering a tasty Supercharging incentive on inventory Model 3 units in Canada as it continues to push sales in the third quarter.
In the United States, Tesla is preparing for the end of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. While it is offering a multitude of incentives in the U.S. to help push sales of its vehicles before the credit goes away, it is not saving the deals for Americans exclusively.
Yesterday, the company announced it is now offering Free Supercharging for life on all Model 3 inventory in Canada, a massive incentive for those who would use the vehicle as a daily driver:
Unlimited road trips through Canada
Free Supercharging now on all Model 3 inventory 🇨🇦
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) August 15, 2025
The deal would normally only apply to Superchargers located in Canada, meaning if a Canadian drove over the border into the United States and Supercharged, they would have to pay for it.
However, Tesla also confirmed that the charging deal would extend to the U.S. Canadians will be able to drive across the U.S. and Supercharge for free for the life of the vehicle.
Free Supercharging is such a great perk because the money an owner saves on charging factors directly into what they are saving if they were to own a gas car. While Supercharging and home charging are, on average, cheaper than filling up with gas, the savings are not massive.
When Supercharging is free, it can save consumers hundreds of dollars per month, especially if they plan to use the Tesla for their daily commute. Some people could fill their gas cars up two times a week to get to work, spending $80-$100 every five days on gas.
Tesla has been using incentives like this to push vehicles into customers’ hands. Q3 could be one of the best three-month spans in recent memory with the push it is making.
News
Tesla is preparing to take on autonomy’s final boss
India’s city streets are notorious for their complexity and congestion.

If there is any sign that Tesla is now confident about its self-driving program, it would be this. As could be seen on Tesla’s Careers page, the company is now hiring Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Delhi and Mumbai, India.
As far as real-world traffic is concerned, one could argue that India’s city streets are the final boss of autonomous driving systems due to their complexity and congestion.
Tesla job openings
As per Tesla in its recent job openings, Prototype Vehicle Operators will be responsible for driving an engineering vehicle for extended periods and conducting dynamic audio and camera data collection for testing and training purposes. In both its job listings for Mumbai and Delhi, Tesla noted that successful applicants will be gathering real-world data on the weekends and around the clock.
Considering the job openings in India, Tesla seems to be intent on rolling out its advanced driver-assist systems like FSD in the country. This is quite interesting, as Tesla is not hiring Prototype Vehicle Operators in other territories that recently launched, such as the Philippines. Perhaps Tesla intends to tackle FSD’s final boss of sorts before rolling out FSD in other territories.
FSD’s rollout
Tesla’s autonomous driving program uses the company’s Full Self-Driving system, which is currently available on vehicles in North America and China. Tesla, however, has a more advanced version of FSD called Unsupervised FSD, which is currently being used in vehicles that are part of the Robotaxi pilot in Austin and the Bay Area.
Elon Musk has also recently announced on X that Tesla will be releasing FSD V14 in the coming weeks. He also shared a number of improvements that can be expected from FSD V14. “The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.
News
Tesla Sweden finally makes IF Metall union give up 600-day strike
Tesla and the union have opened the door to resolutions that do not involve a collective agreement.

After nearly two years of industrial action and sympathy strikes, Swedish labor union IF Metall has stated that it is softening its stance in its dispute with Tesla. With this, Tesla and the union have opened the door to resolutions that do not involve a collective agreement.
Union chair Marie Nilsson told Sveriges Radio’s Ekot that while the preferred outcome remains a signed agreement, “other alternative solutions” are now on the table.
Union reconsiders rigid demands
The strike, which began over 600 days ago, has been marked by a series of strategic moves from both sides. IF Metall blocked Tesla’s access to license plates by targeting mail delivery, while Tesla bypassed the restrictions by importing vehicles in bulk through German ferries to Trelleborg, among other strategies.
Despite the high-profile tactics, the number of active strikers has been relatively small, just about 60 in total, as noted in a CarUp report. Tesla Sweden has also maintained that it does not intend to bow down to the union’s demands. Over the 600-day strike, Tesla Sweden has adapted its operations to get around the union and its allies’ strikes.
Possible paths to ultimate resolution
Nilsson, for her part, noted that IF Metall is now willing to explore alternatives, such as embedding industry-standard terms directly into Tesla’s employment contracts or shifting Tesla’s Swedish operations to a company that already has a collective agreement.
“You can do it in different ways. The easiest thing would be to sign a collective agreement. But when that is not possible, we have to find other alternative solutions as well, so we are open to discussion,” Nilsson stated.
IF Metall, if any, has acknowledged that Tesla has already improved working conditions in Sweden since the dispute began. Tesla Sweden has argued that its working conditions are already better than union standards, which is reportedly one of the reasons why very few company employees actually participated in IF Metall’s strike.
“There have been conversations throughout the journey where we compared our conditions. Tesla has adjusted details without going into details, they want to be a good employer, it’s about wages and conditions,” Nilsson stated.
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