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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
News
Tesla rolling out Robotaxi pilot in SF Bay Area this weekend: report
Similar to the Austin pilot, the Robotaxi rides will reportedly be a paid service.

Tesla is reportedly preparing to launch a Robotaxi pilot program in the Bay Area this weekend, with invites to a select number of customers reportedly being sent out as early as this Friday.
The update was shared in a report from Insider, which cited an internal memo from the electric vehicle maker.
New Robotaxi service launch
According to Insider, the Robotaxi service in the Bay Area is set to launch as soon as Friday. Thus, some Tesla owners in the area should receive invites to use the driverless ride-hailing service. Similar to the Austin pilot, the Robotaxi rides will reportedly be a paid service.
The publication noted that the Robotaxi service’s geofence in its Bay Area launch will be quite large, as it will include Marin, much of the East Bay, San Francisco, and San Jose. This is not surprising as California has long been saturated with Teslas, and it is home to several of the electric vehicle maker’s key facilities.
Unlike the Austin pilot, the Tesla Robotaxi service’s pilot in the Bay Area will use safety drivers seated in the driver’s seat. These drivers will be able to manually take over using the steering wheel and brakes as needed. As per a spokesperson from the California DMV, the agency recently met with Tesla but the company is yet to submit a formal application to operate fully driverless cars.
Tesla Robotaxi expansion
Interestingly enough, Tesla did tease the release of its Robotaxi service to the Bay Area in its second quarter earnings call. While discussing the service, Tesla VP of Autopilot/AI Software Ashok Elluswamy mentioned that the company will initially be rolling out Robotaxis with safety drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area. He did, however, also highlight that the electric vehicle maker is working hard to get government permission to release the service for consumers.
“The next thing to expand would be in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are working with the government to get approval here and, in the meanwhile, launch the service without the person in the driver seat just to expedite and while we wait for regulatory approval,” he stated.
News
Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits
Tesla executives have mentioned that these more affordable models would resemble the company’s current lineup.

The United States’ electric vehicle tax credit is coming to an end at the end of the third quarter. Tesla, the country’s leading electric vehicle maker, is ready to meet this challenge with a rather simple but clever counter.
Tesla executives outlined this strategy in the recently held Q2 2025 earnings call.
End of the US EV tax credit
While Elon Musk has always maintained that he prefers a market with no EV tax credit, he also emphasized that he supports the rollback of any incentives given to the oil and gas industry. The Trump administration has not done this so far, instead focusing on the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of the third quarter.
Tesla has been going all-in on encouraging customers to purchase their vehicles in Q3 to take advantage of lower prices. The company has also implemented a series of incentives across all its offerings, from the Cybertruck to the Model 3. This, however, is not all, as the company seems to be preparing a longer-term solution to the expiration of the EV tax credit.
Affordable variants
During the Q2 2025 earnings call, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moray stated that Tesla really did start the production of more affordable models in June. Quality builds of these vehicles are being ramped this quarter, with the goal of optimizing production over the remaining months of the year. If Tesla is successful, these models will be available for everyone in Q4.
“We started production in June, and we’re ramping quality builds and things around the quarter. And given that we started in North America and our goal is to maximize production with a higher rate. So starting Q3, we’re going to keep pushing hard on our current models to avoid complexity… We’ll be ready with new, more affordable models available for everyone in Q4.,” Moravy stated.
These comments suggest that Tesla should be able to offer vehicles that are competitively priced even after the EV tax credit has been phased out. Interestingly enough, previous comments from Tesla executives have mentioned that these more affordable models would resemble the company’s current lineup. This suggests that the more affordable models may indeed be variations of the Model Y and Model 3, but offered at a lower price.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s next Robotaxi expansion in more ways than one
Tesla Robotaxi is growing in more ways than one. Tesla wants to expand and hopes to reach half the U.S. population by the end of the year.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed the company’s plans for its next expansion of the Robotaxi in terms of both the geofence in Austin and the platform overall, as it looks to move to new areas outside of Texas.
Tesla launched the Robotaxi platform last month on June 22, and has since expanded both the pool of users and the area that the driverless Model Y vehicles can travel within.
The first expansion of the geofence caught the attention of nearly everyone and became a huge headline as Tesla picked a very interesting shape for the new geofence, resembling male reproductive parts.
🚨 Elon Musk says Tesla’s Robotaxi geofence in Austin will get “even bigger and longer” in “a couple weeks or so” pic.twitter.com/0gLeKfURMi
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 23, 2025
The next expansion will likely absolve this shape. Musk revealed last night that the new geofence will be “well in excess of what competitors are doing,” and it could happen “hopefully in a week or two.”
Musk’s full quote regarding the expansion of the geofence and the timing was:
“As some may have noted, we have already expanded our service area in Austin. It’s bigger and longer, and it’s going to get even bigger and longer. We are expecting to greatly increase the service area to well in excess of what competitors are doing, hopefully in a week or two.”
The expansion will not stop there, either. As Tesla has operated the Robotaxi platform in Austin for the past month, it has been working with regulators in other areas, like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, to get the driverless ride-hailing system activated in more U.S. states.
Tesla confirmed that they are in talks with each of these states regarding the potential expansion of Robotaxi.
Musk added:
“As we get the approvals and prove out safety, we will be launching the autonomous ride-hailing across most of the country. I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.”
We know that Tesla and Musk have been prone to aggressive and sometimes outlandish timelines regarding self-driving technology specifically. Regulatory approvals could happen by the end of the year in several areas, and working on these large metros is the best way to reach half of the U.S. population.
Tesla said its expansion of the geofence in Austin is conservative and controlled due to its obsession with safety, even admitting at one point during the Earnings Call that they are being “paranoid.” Expanding the geofence is necessary, but Tesla realizes any significant mistake by Robotaxi could take it back to square one.
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