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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
Tesla has finally and officially confirmed that Actually Smart Summon, commonly known as ASS, will make its way to the Cybertruck two and a half years after first deliveries.
The feature, which is part of the Full Self-Driving suite, allows owners of any Tesla to literally summon their vehicle to their location in a parking lot. It is limited by range and speed, especially as there is nobody in the vehicle, but is a great feature to have for rainstorms, busy parking lots, or for injured passengers (I recently used it so I could give my Fiancèe a hand leaving a sports injury doctor after she pulled her calf).
Tesla Summon has been a lifesaver for picking up my Fiancèe as she pulled her calf during a 10-mile race in Philadelphia this past weekend!
It went from one of her least favorite features of the Tesla to one of the most useful:pic.twitter.com/CPs6lTSPA8
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) May 6, 2026
Summon has been available on every Tesla that is currently available, but the Cybertruck has not had the feature in the two and a half years that customers have been taking deliveries.
There were a few things that Tesla had to work out with Full Self-Driving features, Summon in particular, with the Cybertruck.
Initially, its Steer-by-Wire system handles low-speed maneuvers differently than a typical mechanical steering connection available in the S3XY lineup. This required some additional time of development to allow Tesla to retrain and validate the AI models specifically for the feature within Cybertruck.
Additionally, the overall size and weight of Cybertruck impacted expected dynamics, has an impact on braking distances, and even obstacle avoidance in tighter lots. Tesla prioritized safety over launching the feature ahead of having the utmost confidence in it.
However, the wait is finally over, at least it seems that way. Tesla said that Cybertruck will receive ASS through a Software Update “shortly,” but did not give an explicit date. Tesla has said that Summon is coming in the past, only for it to be delayed yet again.
Summon for Cybertruck rolling out shortly https://t.co/rGli2iHbtL
— Tesla (@Tesla) June 10, 2026
We anticipate that Summon will roll out within the Cybertruck in less than a week, but there are still some reservations about that timing because, ultimately, nobody knows what Tesla will do outside of Tesla. The Spring Update for many came well late, at least a month past the initial rollout wave.
The rollout of Summon to Cybertruck is a great milestone for Tesla, even if it has come later than most would really like to admit. Now that Cybertrucks will be summoned across parking lots, it will be awesome to see reactions to the massive pickup with no driver sitting in the driver’s seat.
Tesla has secured regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system in Denmark, marking a significant step in the technology’s expansion across Europe.
Announced on June 9, the approval positions Denmark as the fourth European country to greenlight FSD Supervised, following the Netherlands, Lithuania, and Estonia.
Rollout to Danish vehicle owners is expected to begin soon, the company said.
The Danish Road Traffic Authority granted provisional approval after reviewing the original type approval issued by the Dutch vehicle authority (RDW) on April 10, 2026.
FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰
Rollout will begin soon pic.twitter.com/Xpxwcme10k
— Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa (@teslaeurope) June 9, 2026
This national recognition approach allows individual countries to bypass slower EU-wide harmonization processes, accelerating deployment. Lithuania activated the system on May 20, with Estonia following on May 29, demonstrating a rapid domino effect across the region.
FSD Supervised enables advanced driver assistance capabilities, including automatic steering, acceleration, braking, lane changes, and navigation through complex urban and rural environments. The system is designed for supervised use, as its name states, meaning drivers must remain attentive and ready to intervene at all times.
It adapts to diverse conditions, such as rain, night driving, and varied road types common in Denmark, but it is important to note that the tech is not fully autonomous.
Following a launch in Europe just a few months ago, with its first approval coming in the Netherlands, Tesla is just now highlighting the successful start.
Early data from the Netherlands highlights strong safety performance. Between April 10 and June 5, vehicles using FSD Supervised recorded 3.5 times fewer collisions than manual driving overall, with zero crashes reported on highways across more than 16.6 million kilometers driven.
These results underscore the potential of the technology to enhance road safety when properly supervised.
Tesla’s European push builds on its global footprint, now reaching 12 countries with FSD Supervised availability. The software receives continuous over-the-air updates, improving performance based on real-world data from millions of miles.
In Denmark, owners with compatible hardware—particularly newer vehicles equipped with Hardware 4 (HW4)—are anticipated to gain access first, though exact timelines and eligibility details will be confirmed during rollout.
This approval reflects growing regulatory confidence in supervised autonomy across Europe. As more nations recognize the Dutch certification, Tesla continues to demonstrate how its AI-driven approach can navigate real-world driving scenarios effectively. Denmark’s addition strengthens Tesla’s position in the region, paving the way for broader adoption on a continent that his been surprisingly slow to adopt the technology.
With FSD Supervised now approved in four European markets in just two months, the technology is steadily advancing toward wider availability. Tesla aims to refine the system further through ongoing data collection and software iterations, supporting its vision for safer and more efficient transportation.
Tesla has apparently revised the policy it previously had listed for Full Self-Driving transfers on the newest All-Wheel-Drive Cybertruck that the company had sold for a steal price of just $59,000 earlier this year.
After initially stating that customers who bought the pickup would be able to transfer FSD purchases, Tesla recently changed the language in those terms and conditions to reflect that this would no longer be the case.
Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price
The adjustment in terminology has caused a handful of orderers to cancel their reservations due to the loss of FSD transfer:
Just cancelled my 59k CT order today. My screenshot from that day of order (feb 20th) clearly shows that it would be eligible.
Terms were retroactively modified. Our 2020 Y and 2023 S are just fine for now. pic.twitter.com/D9PFnId1B4
— Ryan Scanlan 👥 (@Xenius) June 8, 2026
Tesla said orders for the new Cybertruck AWD must be placed by March 31, 2026, to qualify for the FSD transfer. The language in the document from earlier this year explicitly states that they “may qualify” for the transfer program, but the date of March 31 is explicitly mentioned.
Additionally, Tesla Delivery Advisors reached out to some orderers of the AWD Cybertruck, who were told there was “an update to the eligibility of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) transfer.” Tesla stated they could:
- proceed without the transfer,
- upgrade to a Premium or Cyberbeast trim and request an FSD Transfer
- cancel the order and be refunded the $250 order fee.
Tesla turning around and changing these terms will undoubtedly result in a handful of cancellations on the part of those who have placed an order for this truck. They could pay $99 per month for an FSD subscription, which is now the only option available, but having purchased the suite outright on another vehicle and being told the transfer policy would be upheld, only to have it cancelled, is a tough pill to swallow.
These moves were also made by Tesla just before deliveries were set to begin on the Cybertruck AWD configuration. Reservation holders have started receiving VINs for their trucks, and Tesla is preparing to hand over the first units.
It’s a disappointing move from Tesla that will undoubtedly make some of its fans who have bought the truck frustrated.
Tesla confirms it’s releasing a long-awaited Cybertruck feature
Tesla Full Self-Driving is taking over Europe: fourth country gets FSD approval
