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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
News
Tesla Cybercab tests seem to be ramping up again
Elon Musk has stated that he expects the company to achieve a run rate of 2 million Cybercabs annually.

Tesla seems to be ramping the tests of its autonomous two-seater, the Cybercab, once more. This was hinted at in recent drone footage from both the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Texas.
The fresh sightings of the Cybercab in the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas have renewed conversations about the vehicle potentially being built with manual controls today.
Fresh Cybercab tests
As noted by longtime drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer on social media platform X, he recently spotted a Cybercab driving on Giga Texas’ South River Road to the West side. Interestingly enough, the longtime Giga Texas watcher noted that this was the first Cybercab that he had seen conducting road tests in a while.
Over in the Fremont Factory, another Cybercab was spotted driving around the facility’s testing area. Similar to the Cybercab in the Giga Texas sighting, the vehicle that was spotted in the Fremont Factory seemed to be manually driven, at least based on the way it was being steered. This behavior has incited speculations among Tesla watchers that current Cybercab test units have manual controls, unlike their production version, which would have no steering wheel or pedals.
Cybercab production preparation
The sightings of Cybercabs around the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas bode well for the vehicle’s development and impending production. It does, if any, complement reports that Tesla has been busy setting up production equipment for Giga Texas’ Cybercab production line. At the same time, drone footage around the Giga Texas complex has also revealed that Tesla is stockpiling some Cybercab castings, a likely sign that initial test production of the vehicle might soon begin.
The Cybercab is expected to be Tesla’s highest volume vehicle, with CEO Elon Musk stating that he expects the company to achieve a run rate of 2 million Cybercabs annually. He also mentioned that the Cybercab will be easy to produce thanks to its Unboxed manufacturing process, so much so that its production would resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line instead of an automotive assembly line.
News
Tesla FSD gets first rave reviews from media outlets in Japan
As per the publication, FSD demonstrated excellent situational awareness and smooth control, at times even performing better than a human driver.

Tesla FSD may continue to get flak from mainstream media outlets in the United States, but in other countries such as Japan, Full Self-Driving is being welcomed with much appreciation.
This is, at least, as per recent reviews from domestic media outlets that have tried out the capabilities of FSD on real-world roads.
FSD gets recognition
FSD was recently reviewed by Japanese news outlet Nikkei, which experienced the system’s capabilities in Tokyo’s metropolitan area. As per the publication, FSD demonstrated excellent situational awareness and smooth control, at times even performing better than a human driver. FSD was also credited for properly reacting to sudden, unexpected things on the road.
As per the FSD review, for example, a bicyclist suddenly came barreling into a crosswalk at high speed from the Tesla’s blind spot. The vehicle recognized the cyclist immediately and responded in a safe and proper manner, prompting the reviewer to exclaim “Wow!” And when a vehicle ahead of the Tesla started backing up to perform a turnaround on a narrow street unexpectedly, FSD smoothly halted to avoid a collision. Overall, the reviewer noted that during the 30-minute drive, the Tesla Model 3 running FSD did not require a single intervention.
FSD’s impending Japan rollout
FSD is not yet rolled out in Japan, but the country seems to be paving the way for FSD to be released in the country. Just recently, reports emerged stating that Japan’s Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry has allowed artificial intelligence-powered vehicles to be retrofitted with a software update that could enable the activation of their self-driving features.
In a post on X, Tesla Board Member Hiro Mizuno noted that this decision is no small matter as it could pave the way for a smooth rollout of features like FSD to Tesla consumers in Japan. “The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s decision to allow retrofitting of autonomous driving through software updates is significant. Currently, Tesla is the only manufacturer actively pursuing this… this decision will make it easier for all manufacturers to introduce autonomous driving in Japan,” the former Tesla Board member wrote in his post.
News
Tesla extends Model Y L delivery estimates to December 2025
This suggests that the six-seat, all-electric crossover SUV has become fully sold out for both October and November.

Tesla’s new extended-wheelbase Model Y L seems to be getting a lot of traction in China. As per Tesla China’s order page, the estimated delivery date for new vehicle orders is now listed as December 2025.
This suggests that the six-seat, all-electric crossover SUV has become fully sold out for both October and November. This bodes well for the vehicle, considering that it is currently the most expensive trim of the Model Y available in China.
Model Y L demand
Launched in August and first delivered in September, the Model Y L seems to be gaining momentum among Chinese EV buyers who are looking for added space and flexibility in their family vehicles. The Model Y L features a six-seat configuration with a very comfortable second row and a third row that fits regular-sized adults. This makes it a good all-around family car.
While the initial weeks of Model Y L insurance registrations were quite low, the vehicle’s registrations have been picking up in recent weeks. As per recent reports, the Model Y L’s volumes have been growing so much that the vehicle has helped boost Tesla China’s wholesale numbers in September. Even more Model Y L units would likely be registered this October.
Strong local momentum
The Model Y L’s sellout streak highlights Tesla China’s continued strength in the world’s most competitive EV market. With new orders now having an estimated delivery date of December, it seems all but certain that Tesla China would be selling every Model Y L it produces this fourth quarter. This could then help bolster the company’s numbers this Q4 2025.
The Model Y L is only being sold in China for now, though the vehicle’s features and size would actually make it very competitive in markets where larger family EVs are in high demand. Priced from RMB 339,000 ($47,180), the crossover offers a blend of performance, practicality, and value that has seemingly struck a chord with consumers, both in China and potentially, even abroad.
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