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Tesla’s 2020 Aftermath: A look at the shorts who said 500k was ‘absurd’
Tesla’s 2020 showing has created an aftermath of reflection from bulls and bears alike. Despite the company coming off of a record year with a massive 500,000 vehicle delivery and production rate, which was considered “absurd” by some short-sellers in years past, Tesla proved the doubters wrong once again.
Everyone knows that the stock market is really an unpredictable and unfathomably tough thing to read. Some of the world’s best analysts can misread even the slightest bit of data and be miles off of what a particular stock accomplishes. Tesla, which is one of the more polarizing stocks despite its 700% climb in 2020, has had doubters since day 1. The difference between doubters of Tesla and doubters of other companies is that Tesla shorts and bears are some of the most vocal on Wall Street because the company’s momentum and hype have been talked about for nearly a decade.
2020 was easily the toughest year for the U.S. automotive market since the Great Recession of 2008. Tesla was one of the few companies that accomplished the feat of sustaining growth through the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crippled many industries, not just the automotive one, for most of the year. However, doubts on Tesla set in way back when the company started in 2008. Six years after Tesla built the original Roadster, analysts were still curious about the automaker’s capabilities moving forward and doubted that it would be able to scale its production to half-a-million cars by 2020. The old saying goes, “hindsight is 2020,” and as Tesla reached its goal for the year, it is easy to sit back and judge those who were wrong. However, their reasoning for not reaching 500,000 vehicles was completely flawed, and everything Tesla said it would do years ago has been accomplished.
Mark Spiegel called 500,000 cars in 2020 “absurd”
Mark Spiegel is a notable Tesla short-seller and has been bearish on the automaker’s stock for years. In 2014, Spiegel posted an article to Seeking Alpha, titled, “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.”
Spiegel used data like the compound annual growth rate to support his evidence, stating, “If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.” Additionally, Spiegel did not believe that Tesla could scale growth at that rate in six years because “no complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.” But hey, there is a first time for everything.
Microsoft was able to scale its CAGR by 32.1% from 1993 to 1999, which is a six-year time span and was identical to Tesla’s outlook that was challenged in the 2014 article. While Microsoft managed a remarkable 32.1% CAGR because of the evergrowing popularity of the computer and other technology, Tesla’s overwhelming growth throughout the same timespan was due to tech developments, industry influence, proving affordability of electric cars, and a consistent growth rate that proved the company was here to stay.
Spiegel’s outlook for 2020 was 186,000 cars sold by Tesla, but the company managed to nearly accomplish this figure in Q4 alone, as it delivered 180,570 cars in the final three months of the year. Spiegel was way off in his predictions, and Tesla’s domination in 2020 was just one of many examples of analysts getting it completely wrong.
Tesla wasn’t a prime candidate for scaling its products, according to Thomas Bartman
In an April 2015 article in the Harvard Business Review, Thomas Bartman wrote an opinionated piece called, “Why Tesla Won’t Be Able to Scale.” Bartman claimed that Tesla’s EVs were “not actually disruptive, which will likely cause it to struggle to scale.” Bartman didn’t have the Model 3 to use as a benchmark at the time, but he doubted that Tesla would be able to sell a vehicle for $35,000, which it did.
“Tesla plans to launch a ‘mainstream’ luxury car, the Model 3,” Bartman wrote, “which it estimates will cost $35,000, although analysts have begun to question the feasibility of reaching that price point.” Tesla did discontinue this variant in late 2020, but the Standard Range Model 3 was available for over three years. The Standard Range+ was only $2,770 more and was more popular because of the range. Also, the SR was not listed on Tesla’s website and had to be ordered in a showroom or over the phone.
Bartman believed that Tesla had launched two good vehicles in the Model S and Model X, but legacy auto would quickly catch up after a few years. However, this has been proven wrong repeatedly, as companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have failed to launch effective and competitive EVs that are comparable to Tesla’s models globally. The Model 3 continues to dominate in China and the U.S., and the Model Y is gaining plenty of momentum as it nears the one-year mark since its first deliveries.
Tesla China Model Y attracts flocks of customers in local showrooms
“As Tesla attempts to scale, it’s likely to discover that its internal impediments, combined with competitor responses, make it much harder than anticipated,” Bartman said. “The symptoms of these problems will manifest as product launch delays, cost overruns, and higher than expected prices.”
The only issue is that Tesla was able to internally combat production issues, even though Elon Musk has admitted many times that Model 3 manufacturing was “production hell.” The company has effectively beaten all of its competitors to launching an effective and cost-worthy electric car by launching four of them.
Hindsight is 2020
With 2020 over (thank God), Tesla and analysts are already looking forward to the new year. 2021 has plenty in store for Tesla: Two production facilities in the U.S. and Europe are set to begin manufacturing efforts, the launch of the Cybertruck at the tail-end of the year, and a possible refresh of the Model S and Model X. Moving forward, Tesla shorts may be more cautious, especially considering their traumatic $38 billion loss this year.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI celebrates nearly 3,000 headcount at Memphis site
The update came in a post from the xAI Memphis account on social media platform X.
xAI has announced that it now employs nearly 3,000 people in Memphis, marking more than two years of local presence in the city amid the company’s supercomputing efforts.
The update came in a post from the xAI Memphis account on social media platform X.
In a post on X, xAI’s Memphis branch stated it has been part of the community for over two years and now employs “almost 3,000 locally to help power Grok.” The post was accompanied by a photo of the xAI Memphis team posing for a rather fun selfie.
“xAI is proud to be a member of the Memphis community for over two years. We now employ almost 3,000 locally to help power @Grok. From electricians to engineers, cooks to construction — we’re grateful for everyone on our team!” the xAI Memphis’ official X account wrote.
xAI’s Memphis facilities are home to Grok’s foundational supercomputing infrastructure, including Colossus, a large-scale AI training cluster designed to support the company’s advanced models. The site, located in South Memphis, was announced in 2024 as the home of one of the world’s largest AI compute facilities.
The first phase of Colossus was built out in record time, reaching its initial 100,000 GPU operational status in just 122 days. Industry experts such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang noted that this was significantly faster than the typical 2-to-4-year timeline for similar projects.
xAI chose Memphis for its supercomputing operations because of the city’s central location, skilled workforce, and existing industrial infrastructure, as per the company’s statements about its commitment to the region. The initiative aims to create hundreds of permanent jobs, partner with local businesses, and contribute to economic and educational efforts across the area.
Colossus is intended to support a full training pipeline for Grok and future models, with xAI planning to scale the site to millions of GPUs.
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Ford embraces Tesla-style gigacastings and Cybertruck’s 48V architecture
Ford Motor Company’s next-generation electric vehicles will adopt technologies that were first commercialized by the Tesla Cybertruck.
Ford Motor Company’s next-generation electric vehicles will adopt technologies that were first commercialized by the Tesla Cybertruck, such as the brutalist all-electric pickup’s 48-volt electrical architecture and its gigacastings.
The shift is expected to start with a roughly $30,000 small electric pickup that is expected to be released in 2027, which is part of Ford’s $5 billion investment in its new Universal EV platform, as noted in a CNBC report.
Ford confirmed that its upcoming EV platform will move away from the traditional 12-volt system long used across the auto industry. Instead, it will implement a 48-volt electrical architecture that draws power directly from the vehicle’s high-voltage battery.
Tesla was the first automaker to bring a 48-volt system to U.S. consumers with the Cybertruck in 2023. The architecture reduces wiring bulk, lowers weight, and improves electrical efficiency. It also allows power to be stepped down to 12 volts through new electronic control units when needed.
Alan Clarke, Ford’s executive director of advanced EV development and a former Tesla engineer, called 48-volt systems “the future of automotive” due to their lower costs and smaller wiring requirements. Ford stated that the wiring harness in its new pickup will be more than 4,000 feet shorter and 22 pounds lighter than that of its first-generation electric SUV.
Apart from the Cybertruck’s 48-volt architecture, Ford is also embracing Tesla-style gigacastings for its next-generation EVs. Ford stated that its upcoming electric vehicle will use just two major structural front and rear castings, compared with 146 comparable components in the current gas-powered Maverick.
Ford CEO Jim Farley has described the effort as a “bet” and a “Model T moment” for the company, arguing that system-level innovation is necessary to lower costs and compete globally. “At Ford, we took on the challenge many others have stopped doing. We’re taking the fight to our competition, including the Chinese,” Farley previously stated.
Energy
Tesla meets Giga New York’s Buffalo job target amid political pressures
Giga New York reported more than 3,460 statewide jobs at the end of 2025, meeting the benchmark tied to its dollar-a-year lease.
Tesla has surpassed its job commitments at Giga New York in Buffalo, easing pressure from lawmakers who threatened the company with fines, subsidy clawbacks, and dealership license revocations last year.
The company reported more than 3,460 statewide jobs at the end of 2025, meeting the benchmark tied to its dollar-a-year lease at the state-built facility.
As per an employment report reviewed by local media, Tesla employed 2,399 full-time workers at Gigafactory New York and 1,060 additional employees across the state at the end of 2025. Part-time roles pushed the total headcount of Tesla’s New York staff above the 3,460-job target.
The gains stemmed in part from a new Long Island service center, a Buffalo warehouse, and additional showrooms in White Plains and Staten Island. Tesla also said it has invested $350 million in supercomputing infrastructure at the site and has begun manufacturing solar panels.
Empire State Development CEO Hope Knight said the agency was “very happy” with Giga New York’s progress, as noted in a WXXI report. The current lease runs through 2029, and negotiations over updated terms have included potential adjustments to job requirements and future rent payments.
Some lawmakers remain skeptical, however. Assemblymember Pat Burke questioned whether the reported job figures have been fully verified. State Sen. Patricia Fahy has also continued to sponsor legislation that would revoke Tesla’s company-owned dealership licenses in New York. John Kaehny of Reinvent Albany has argued that the project has not delivered the manufacturing impact originally promised as well.
Knight, for her part, maintained that Empire State Development has been making the best of a difficult situation.
“(Empire State Development) has tried to make the best of a very difficult situation. There hasn’t been another use that has come forward that would replace this one, and so to the extent that we’re in this place, the fact that 2,000 families at (Giga New York) are being supported through the activity of this employer. It’s the best that we can have happen,” the CEO noted.
Elon Musk’s xAI celebrates nearly 3,000 headcount at Memphis site
Ford embraces Tesla-style gigacastings and Cybertruck’s 48V architecture
