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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand

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The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.

Thank you, Tesla.

As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.

And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.

“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

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Tesla Fremont factory Model S and Model X

Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory

Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.

Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”

Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”

If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.

Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Texas lawmakers urge Tesla to delay Austin robotaxi launch to September

The letter urges Tesla to delay its initial robotaxi launch in the interest of public safety.

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Credit: @HanChulYong/X

A group of Democratic lawmakers from Austin is asking Tesla to postpone its planned robotaxi rollout, at least until a new state law governing autonomous vehicles takes effect in September.

The letter, which was sent Wednesday, urges Tesla to delay its initial robotaxi launch in the interest of public safety.

What the lawmakers’ letter says

In their letter, the Democratic lawmakers stated that delaying Tesla’s initial robotaxi launch would build trust in the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous vehicle operations.

“We are formally requesting that Tesla delay autonomous robotaxi operations until the new law takes effect on September 1, 2025. We believe this is in the best interest of both public safety and building public trust in Tesla’s operations,” the letter read.

The lawmakers noted that if Tesla wishes to push through with its planned June 22 launch, the company must provide detailed information explaining its robotaxi service’s initial launch.

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New rules kick in September

The new Texas law passed state legislature last month, and it introduces stricter requirements for companies deploying fully self-driving cars. 

Current state law allows autonomous vehicle testing without a human driver, as long as vehicles meet basic registration and insurance standards. The updated framework gives state agencies more oversight, including the ability to revoke permits if autonomous vehicles pose safety risks.

It remains to be seen if the Democratic lawmakers’ efforts will bear fruit, especially since Texas is state where Republicans hold the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers, as noted in a Reuters report.

Elon Musk, for his part, confirmed that Tesla’s initial robotaxi launch for Austin this June will start with a small fleet of Model Y vehicles. He also noted the service would initially operate only in parts of the city the company deems safest.

Tesla has not issued a comment about the Democratic lawmakers’ letter as of writing.

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xAI’s Grok 3 partners with Oracle Cloud for corporate AI innovation  

Elon Musk’s xAI partners with Oracle to deliver Grok 3 to enterprise users via OCI. The move boosts Grok’s reach.

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Credit: Elon Musk | X

xAI’s Grok 3 is partnering with Oracle Cloud to deliver its advanced AI model to corporate customers.

Oracle announced its collaboration with xAI earlier this week. The partnership leverages Oracle’s robust infrastructure to offer xAI’s Grok 3, positioning it as a transformative tool for business applications.

“Today, we announced xAI has selected Oracle to offer xAI’s Grok models via OCI Generative AI service for a wide range of use cases and will use OCI’s leading AI infrastructure to train and run inferencing for its next-generation Grok models,” said Clay Magouyrk, Executive Vice President at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, via LinkedIn.

Oracle’s cost-effective AI capabilities will support xAI’s demanding workloads, enabling faster processing for enterprise users.

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Oracle’s Karan Batta told Reuters: “Our goal here is to make sure that we can provide a portfolio of models – we don’t have our own.” Oracle will host Grok 3 alongside models from Meta, Mistral, and Cohere, ensuring corporate data remains secure within existing Oracle protections.

Oracle’s strategy focuses on integrating popular AI models into corporate software, and xAI’s Grok 3 enhances this portfolio. The collaboration expands Grok’s reach to businesses seeking secure, high-performance AI solutions for diverse use cases.

Elon Musk’s xAI launched Grok 3 in February. It competes with models from DeepSeek and OpenAI. Grok 3 is free for all X users, but features are limited. X offers Premium and Premium+ subscribers access to Grok 3’s advanced capabilities like DeepResearch and Think modes. Users who are not paid subscribers have access to Grok 3’s basic features.

Elon Musk’s companies have a longstanding relationship with Oracle. In 2018, Tesla appointed Oracle founder Larry Ellison to its board, a move Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives called a “home run appointment.”

In 2023, Ellison–who is no longer on Tesla’s board but still close with Musk–revealed plans for a Tesla Cybertruck police car.

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“Our next-generation police car is coming out very soon,” Ellison said at the 2023 Oracle CloudWorld conference in Las Vegas. “It’s my favorite police car. It’s my favorite car, actually. It’s Elon’s favorite car.”

Grok 3’s integration into Oracle Cloud strengthens xAI’s position in the corporate artificial intelligence market. By combining Oracle’s infrastructure with Grok’s cutting-edge capabilities, this collaboration could redefine enterprise AI adoption, driving innovation across industries.

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Tesla Robotaxis are becoming a common sight on Austin’s public roads

Tesla Robotaxi sightings are becoming much more frequent ahead of its launch planned for this month.

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Credit: @Muzeishen | X

Tesla Robotaxis are becoming a common sight on the public roads of Austin, Texas, as yet another test mule has been spotted near the company’s target launch date.

Just over a week ago, the first public sighting of a driverless Tesla Robotaxi was reported. The vehicle was an updated version of the Tesla Model Y, which will be the initial model used in the public deployment of the Robotaxi platform.

Throughout the past week, sightings have been more common, as people in Austin have been looking for the unique decal Tesla is placing on car doors to recognize the driverless vehicles (After all, Robotaxis are not as easy to recognize as driverless vehicles without the LIDAR unit on the roof like Waymo).

Yet another sighting of a Robotaxi was shared on social media today, just two days before CEO Elon Musk’s proposed launch date of June 22:

It is easy to tell that there is nobody in the driver’s seat of this vehicle. Tesla is using its white interior on this particular mule, making it incredibly simple to recognize that no human is controlling the car.

Whether Tesla will still meet the June 22nd deadline remains to be seen, but it is no secret that the company is prioritizing safety ahead of offering public rides.

Tesla will initially roll out the Robotaxi platform in Austin, but it has already started the regulatory process in other areas, specifically California.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is also helping to streamline the process for companies developing driverless vehicles by giving exemptions to automakers. It will make things much more efficient, benefiting Tesla and other car companies that have similar plans.

Tesla Robotaxi just got a big benefit from the U.S. government

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