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Tesla Giga Canada makes sense: Canadian Minister emphasizes auto industry’s new “supplier of choice” [Opinion]
Tesla Giga Canada is starting to make more sense. At the 2022 Shareholders Round-Up, Elon Musk announced that Tesla might share the location of its next gigafactory by the end of the year. Musk teased that Canada could be a potential location.
Just last week, Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry François-Philippe Champagne visited Tesla’s Markham facility to talk to Tesla. Champagne’s visit suggested that Tesla Giga Canada has some potential to reach fruition.
There are two main reasons Canada would be a good location for Tesla’s next gigafactory. CDN seems to be hyper-focused on developing its green supply chain and catering to the auto industry. Also, the recently signed Inflation Reduction Act encourages automakers—legacy and startup alike—to secure supply chains in North America.
Canada becoming EV “supplier of choice”
Recently, Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz signed separate agreements with Canada for battery EV materials.
Volkswagen’s deal with Canada involves sustainable battery manufacturing, cathode active material production, critical mineral supply, and others. It also includes a Canadian office for VW’s PowerCo, its battery company. Through PowerCo, Volkswagen plans to develop and research EV batteries and ramp in-house cell production and recycling.
Canada’s agreement with Mercedes Benz seems more open-ended. However, it will focus on enhancing collaborations between the legacy OEM and Canadians companies along EV and battery supply chains.
Minister Champagne explained that talks between Canada and the two legacy automakers started in May when he visited Germany.
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“Canada is quickly becoming the green supplier of choice for major auto companies, including leading European manufacturers, as we transition to a cleaner, greener future. By partnering with Volkswagen and Mercedes, Canada is strengthening its leadership role as a world-class automotive innovation ecosystem for clean transportation solutions. Canada is committed to building a strong and reliable automotive and battery supply chain here in North America to help the world meet global climate goals,” said Champagne.
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act
VW and Mercedes Benz signed deals with Canada a week after President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, and it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence.
The Inflation Reduction Act takes effect in December 2022, but EV automakers and suppliers have already started preparing for it. For instance, South Korean battery suppliers have also started preparing to move production to the United States. The law introduces a new system of EV tax credits with a specific set of requirements. It includes a battery requirement that would affect automakers and suppliers directly.
Under the Inflation Reduction Act, 40% of materials used in batteries should be sourced from North America or a U.S. trading partner by 2024. By 2029, 100% of materials used in batteries should come from North America or U.S. trading partners; otherwise, the vehicles will not qualify for EV tax credits.
The law would affect automakers like Volkswagen. VW, for instance, aims to break into the U.S. pickup truck market with an all-electric Scout vehicle. EV tax credits would help VW’s EV Scout sales in the future.
What about Tesla?
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data (DOE) published a list of electric vehicles eligible for the new EV tax credit of $7,500. According to DOE’s list, Tesla’s entire S3XY line will qualify for the tax credits starting January 1, 2023.
Tesla hasn’t qualified for EV tax credits for quite some time since it already hit the 200,000 cap in the old system. The strong demand for Tesla cars suggests that the lack of subsidies isn’t really hurting the company. But, EV tax credits would help the company’s primary goal: accelerating the advent of sustainability.
Tesla has become a leader in the global EV space and market. It has shown legacy automakers that electric vehicles are the future. To keep traditional OEMs motivated, Tesla needs to keep pushing forward. Complying with the Inflation Reduction Act would be a good way of keeping legacy OEMs on their toes.
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Tesla’s aims to produce 20 million vehicles annually by 2030. Elon Musk explained that Tesla would need about a dozen gigafactories to make 2 million vehicles per year and achieve its 20M goal.
Currently, Tesla has Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, Giga Shanghai, and the Fremont Factory producing cars. It would make sense for Tesla to choose Canada as the next location of its newest gigafactory given the Inflation Reduction Act’s requirements. By choosing Canada, Tesla could produce more cars and qualify for the EV tax credits in the United States–hitting two birds with one stone.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
