Investor's Corner
The Tesla Model 3’s defiance of TSLA critics and its EV market dominance explained
To state that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a polarizing company would be an understatement. Tesla commands a strong following, comprised of avid supporters and passionate critics alike. This was particularly evident in the Model 3, a car that was declared a “lemon” by critics at one point, and a car that has become one of the most popular electric cars in the industry today.
The Model 3 has its own fair share of critics. Last September, high-profile TSLA short Jim Chanos declared that the Model 3 has inherent problems that make it a “lemon.” Seemingly in response to Chanos’ statement, the Model 3 dominated the US luxury auto market in 2018, and with its international rollout this year, the vehicle has also started making an impact in markets such as Norway and China.
TSLA investor @Incentives101, an economist with a background in macro research, stated in a message to Teslarati that Tesla’s vehicles, particularly the Model 3, defied several conventions when it was released. With its unique combination of uncompromising performance, efficiency, and a reasonable price, the Model 3 has become a vehicle that constantly defies critics every step of the way.
The economist explained that consumers purchase vehicles according to preferences that are subject to budget constraints. The buying process then becomes a matter of selecting which car is the best option within the confines of a budget. “Consumers preferences can be easily understood when there is data available i.e when they clearly show what they want. With a car or any good for that matter, consumers are basically solving an optimization problem. Hence, this is why advanced economic models — general equilibrium — are on essence an optimization problem,” the economist wrote.
There are many variables that consumers consider when purchasing a big-ticket item such as a car. Generally, there are no internal combustion vehicles that are as efficient as an electric car, but EVs prior to Teslas usually had worse performance and a higher price, which, in turn, discouraged buyers despite their lower total cost of ownership. Electric cars before the arrival of the original Tesla Roadster and the Model S also introduced a new constraint: range. Under these circumstances, it was not rare to see buyers who valued efficiency and/or are not price-sensitive selecting an EV, and those that valued performance and price opting for a petrol-powered car.
It is these very metrics that the Tesla Model 3 was able to completely address. Tesla refused to compromise with the Model 3, making the electric sedan a vehicle that is incredibly efficient with performance that matches the best that the industry has to offer. What’s remarkable was that Tesla was able to accomplish this while keeping the Model 3’s price reasonable. And this, according to the economist, has resonated with consumers. “When Elon Musk says it’s insane to buy something else other than a Tesla, it’s because it literally is. You can prove it with math,” the economist stated.
The researcher added that this is one of the key reasons why Tesla and the Model 3 have proven incredibly resilient despite the negative narrative surrounding the vehicle and the company as a whole. It is also something that is frequently misunderstood by mainstream analysts and the company’s critics alike. Fortunately for Tesla, consumers by nature are drawn to superior products, and this is steadily becoming more and more pronounced with the Model 3’s international expansion.
“Whenever you read experts saying that Tesla has a 10-year advantage, this is what it means. When the media and Wall Street compare Tesla to other OEMs, when they talk about units of cars vs. other OEMs, it really doesn’t matter. None of them can find an example in history when consumers have behaved as irrationally as what they’re implying. No matter how many hit pieces about Elon Musk or Tesla, how many stock downgrades, how many bear notes, consumers won’t care about it. We already know what consumers care about; it will be impossible to stop it,” the economist wrote.
Tesla stock has so far slipped around 32% this year, following a challenging first quarter and another loss in the second quarter despite record delivery numbers. By contrast, the S&P 500 has risen about 16.7% year to date.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla taps Samsung for 5G modems amid plans of Robotaxi ramp: report
Tesla Full Self-Driving pricing strategy eliminates one recurring complaint
