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Tesla Model Y ramp in Giga Shanghai to drive ~80% delivery growth in 2021: report

Credit: Tesla China/Twitter

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Loup Ventures believes Tesla’s Model Y ramp could drive an ~80% delivery growth for the company in 2021. Tesla’s Q1 Update Letter stated the company had plans to grow its manufacturing capacity. Over a multi-year horizon, Tesla expects to achieve a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.

Tesla noted that its growth might be faster in some years versus others. Tesla expects to grow significantly in 2021. Loup Ventures observed that Tesla’s delivery growth has increased from 23% in December 2019 to 109% in March 2021.

Loup Ventures projects that Tesla’s Model Y production ramp in Shanghai, plus later this year with Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas will result in an 80% boost in the EV automaker’s delivery growth.

Loup Ventures’ prediction aligns with Tesla’s goals for the Model Y. During the latest earnings call, Elon Musk remarked that Tesla believes the Model Y could become the best-selling car in any category worldwide by 2022 or 2023. He pointed out that the Tesla Model 3 became the best-selling luxury sedan just three and a half years into production.

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Tesla’s delivery growth must significantly increase by the end of 2021 to achieve its goals for the Model Y. In its Q1 Update Letter, Tesla noted that substantial growth would depend on the company’s equipment capacity, operational efficiency, capacity, and stability of the supply chain.

There are still some factors out of Tesla’s control, or that might challenge the company in 2021. For example, Musk talked about supply chain challenges Tesla experienced in the first quarter, which affected its timeline for Model S Plaid deliveries.

Loup Ventures seems aware of the hurdles Tesla still has to face this year alone but is still optimistic about the company’s future.

“We maintain the view that this reality will likely create near-term volatility in shares of Tesla. In the end, we continue to believe these segments will be the foundation of the future of transportation and energy consumption and will increase Tesla’s market cap over the long run,” wrote Loup Ventures.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Tesla confirmed HW3 can’t do Unsupervised FSD but there’s more to the story

Tesla confirmed HW3 vehicles cannot run unsupervised FSD, replacing its free upgrade promise with a discounted trade-in.

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tesla autopilot

Tesla has officially confirmed that early vehicles with its Autopilot Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised Full Self-Driving, while extending a path forward for legacy owners through a discounted trade-in program. The announcement came by way of Elon Musk in today’s Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call.

The history here matters. HW3 launched in April 2019, and Tesla sold Full Self-Driving packages to owners on the understanding that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. Some owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for FSD during that period. For years, as FSD’s AI models grew more demanding, HW3 vehicles fell progressively further behind, eventually landing on FSD v12.6 in January 2025 while AI4 vehicles moved to v13 and then v14. When Musk acknowledged in January 2025 that HW3 simply could not reach unsupervised operation, and alluded to a difficult hardware retrofit.

The near-term offering is more concrete. Tesla’s head of Autopilot Ashok Elluswamy confirmed on today’s call that a V14-lite will be coming to HW3 vehicles in late June, bringing all the V14 features currently running on AI4 hardware. That is a meaningful software update for owners who have been frozen at v12.6 for over a year, and it represents genuine effort to keep older hardware relevant. Unsupervised FSD for vehicles is now targeted for Q4 2026 at the earliest, with Musk describing it as a gradual, geography-limited rollout.

For HW3 owners, the over-the-air V14-lite update is welcomed, and the discounted trade-in path at least acknowledges an old obligation. What happens next with the trade-in pricing will define how this chapter ultimately gets written. If Tesla prices the hardware path fairly, acknowledges what early adopters are owed, and delivers V14-lite on the June timeline it committed to today, it has a real opportunity to convert one of the longest-running sore subjects among early adopters into a loyalty story.

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Elon Musk

Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go

Tesla’s Optimus factory in Texas targets 10 million robots yearly, with 5.2 million square feet under construction.

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Tesla’s Q1 2026 Update Letter, released today, confirms that first generation Optimus production lines are now well underway at its Fremont, California factory, with a pilot line targeting one million robots per year to start. Of bigger note is a shared aerial image of a large piece of land adjacent to Gigafactory Texas, that Tesla has prominently labeled “Optimus factory site preparation.”

Permit documents show Tesla is seeking to add over 5.2 million square feet of new building space to the Giga Texas North Campus by the end of 2026, at an estimated construction investment of $5 billion to $10 billion. The longer term production target for that facility is 10 million Optimus units per year. Giga Texas already sits on 2,500 acres with over 10 million square feet of existing factory floor, and the North Campus expansion is being built to support multiple projects, including the dedicated Optimus factory, the Terafab chip fabrication facility (a joint Tesla/SpaceX/xAI venture), a Cybercab test track, road infrastructure, and supporting facilities.

Credit: TESLA

Texas makes strategic sense beyond the existing infrastructure. The state’s tax structure, lower labor costs relative to California, and the proximity to Tesla’s AI training cluster Cortex 1 and 2, both located at Giga Texas and now totaling over 230,000 H100 equivalent GPUs, means the Optimus software stack and the factory producing the hardware will share the same campus. Tesla’s Q1 report also confirmed completion of the AI5 chip tape out in April, the inference processor designed specifically to power Optimus units in the field.

As Teslarati reported, the Texas facility is intended to house Optimus V4 production at full scale. Musk told the World Economic Forum in January that Tesla plans to sell Optimus to the public by end of 2027 at a price between $20,000 and $30,000, stating, “I think everyone on earth is going to have one and want one.” He has previously pegged long term demand for general purpose humanoid robots at over 20 billion units globally, citing both consumer and industrial use cases.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 earnings results: beat on EPS and revenues

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what the company reported compared to what Wall Street analysts expected.

The earnings results come after Tesla reported a miss on vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, delivering 358,023 vehicles and building 408,386 cars during the three-month span.

As Tesla transitions more toward AI and sees itself as less of a car company, expectations for deliveries will begin to become less of a central point in the consensus of how the quarter is perceived.

Nevertheless, Tesla is leaning on its strong foundation as a car company to carry forward its AI ambitions. The first quarter is a good ground layer for the rest of the year.

Tesla Q1 2026 Earnings Results

Tesla’s Earnings Results are as follows:

  • Non-GAAP EPS – $0.41 Reported vs. $0.36 Expected
  • Revenues – $22.387 billion vs. $22.35 billion Expected
  • Free Cash Flow – $1.444 billion
  • Profit – $4.72 billion

Tesla beat analyst expectations, so it will be interesting to see how the stock responds. IN the past, we’ve seen Tesla beat analyst expectations considerably, followed by a sharp drop in stock price.

On the same token, we’ve seen Tesla miss and the stock price go up the following trading session.

Tesla will hold its Q1 2026 Earnings Call in about 90 minutes at 5:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Remarks will be made by CEO Elon Musk and other executives, who will shed some light on the investor questions that we covered earlier this week.

You can stream it below. Additionally, we will be doing our Live Blog on X and Facebook.

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