News
Tesla Van, revised Cybertruck, Tesla Boat — Here’s what could be coming
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed during the company’s most recent Earnings Call on Wednesday that the automaker has “other products” being developed. Of course, Musk did not shed any detail on them, but based on what the company might need, and what others have said in the past, we have an idea of what they could be.
Musk said:
“I should also say that there — we have other products in development. We’re not going to announce them, obviously, but they’re very exciting. And I think it will blow people’s minds when they — when we reveal them. Tesla has the most exciting product road map of any company on earth by a long shot.”
A Tesla Van
A Tesla Van might be in the product roadmap, especially as Musk has hinted toward the idea on several occasions. In late 2018, Musk stated that it may be “interesting to work with Daimler/Mercedes on an electric Sprinter.”
In early 2021, Musk reiterated this point while speaking on the Q4 and Full Year 2020 Earnings Call, stating, “I think Tesla is definitely going to make an electric van at some point.”
While a Tesla Van might be a great idea for some personal applications, this would be something that would undoubtedly be used as a commercial vehicle. To this day, Sprinter vans are utilized by a variety of companies, from auto parts stores, to car detailing businesses. However, Tesla may find the biggest application for it internally.
(Credit: teslaguru2/Instagram)
Still utilizing some Ford Transit vans and some Model S and Model X vehicles, among others, for its Mobile Service fleet, Tesla would undoubtedly see several advantages from developing a van. For one, Tesla still struggles with Service, especially at physical locations. With the company delivering over 1.3 million cars last year and only growing its Store and Service locations by 120 this past year, or ten a month, Mobile Service could be the company’s key to improving its overall effectiveness.
The Mobile Service fleet grew 24 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, with 303 additional units added last year alone. However, this could likely increase further if Tesla developed and built its own Service vehicles, and let’s face it, they’d be much more cost-effective than leasing expensive Service locations.
A Tesla Van would also enter a market with relatively small amounts of competition. Currently, the E-Transit holds 73 percent of the segment, with 6,500 sales last year. Offering only 236 miles of range in its Custom offering, the E-Transit could be challenged by a Tesla Van.
A ‘More Traditional’ Pickup
This one is a bit of a long shot, but it could definitely still happen. Musk stated in an interview with Automotive News in 2020 that if the Tesla Cybertruck was a flop, the company could develop a more “traditional” pickup design.
“If it turns out nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we’ll build a normal truck, no problem,” he said.
An artist’s render of the Tesla Pickup Truck. (Credit: Emre Husman)
With over a million pre-orders currently, it does not seem as if Tesla will do this, at least not any time in the near future. However, Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, who confirmed the Cybertruck design was finalized, did state Tesla never really puts a “pencils down” approach to the subject.
While the whole idea behind the Cybertruck was to break the mold of traditional pickup designs, some may want to continue with Tesla’s expertise in EVs while having something slightly more “normal.” But, in my estimation, don’t hold your breath.
A Tesla Boat
In regards to Tesla’s “ecological paradise,” Musk told us in September that the company filed to expand Gigafactory Texas from the southern portion to make way for this project. Visitors would be able to float down the Colorado River to downtown Austin.
But instead of Tesla Kayaks, Musk said the company could develop “electric Tesla boats with a retro-futuristic Victorian design.”
Musk has already hinted that the Cybertruck will likely be able to float and navigate through water, at least to an extent. However, it seems that a boat could be developed for at least the company’s internal projects, like the “ecological paradise” it plans to build outside of the Texas Gigafactory.
$25,000 Mass-Market Sedan
Heavily rumored as a Tesla project for several years, the $25,000 vehicle is the company’s key to mass affordability for many consumers.
When Chevrolet announced huge cuts on the Bolt EV and EUV last year, it became one of the most affordable EVs you can buy, and it was a car that was recognized as a major needle mover in terms of EV adoption simply because it showed consumers that you don’t have to spend upwards of $40,000 on an EV.
Credit: Alwinart/Twitter
However, the vehicle is not a rumor, and it’s definitely something Tesla is looking toward developing soon. Musk said last year:
“Well, we’re not currently working on the — on a $25,000 car. We — you know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be.”
The $25,000 Tesla will likely be a part of the company’s next-gen platform, which will be discussed during the Investor Day on March 1. Musk once again confirmed during the Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call that this will be on the agenda for the event.
What won’t happen: a Tesla Motorcycle
While Tesla did unveil a Tesla CyberATV at the Cybertruck event in 2019, Musk said Tesla will never develop an electric motorcycle.
“I had a road bike until I was 17 and was almost killed by a truck,” Musk said. “So we’re not going to do motorcycles.”
The Bottom Line
Of course, we already know Tesla is developing a new version of the Model 3 within Project Highland. While this could be more of an internal revamp than anything, just as the Model S and Model X refreshes were, there are undoubtedly plenty of things in the works.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
