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Tesla Van, revised Cybertruck, Tesla Boat — Here’s what could be coming

Credit: Emre Husman | teslaguru2/Instagram) | Alwinart/Twitter

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed during the company’s most recent Earnings Call on Wednesday that the automaker has “other products” being developed. Of course, Musk did not shed any detail on them, but based on what the company might need, and what others have said in the past, we have an idea of what they could be.

Musk said:

“I should also say that there — we have other products in development. We’re not going to announce them, obviously, but they’re very exciting. And I think it will blow people’s minds when they — when we reveal them. Tesla has the most exciting product road map of any company on earth by a long shot.”

A Tesla Van

A Tesla Van might be in the product roadmap, especially as Musk has hinted toward the idea on several occasions. In late 2018, Musk stated that it may be “interesting to work with Daimler/Mercedes on an electric Sprinter.”

In early 2021, Musk reiterated this point while speaking on the Q4 and Full Year 2020 Earnings Call, stating, “I think Tesla is definitely going to make an electric van at some point.”

While a Tesla Van might be a great idea for some personal applications, this would be something that would undoubtedly be used as a commercial vehicle. To this day, Sprinter vans are utilized by a variety of companies, from auto parts stores, to car detailing businesses. However, Tesla may find the biggest application for it internally.

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tesla van

(Credit: teslaguru2/Instagram)

Still utilizing some Ford Transit vans and some Model S and Model X vehicles, among others, for its Mobile Service fleet, Tesla would undoubtedly see several advantages from developing a van. For one, Tesla still struggles with Service, especially at physical locations. With the company delivering over 1.3 million cars last year and only growing its Store and Service locations by 120 this past year, or ten a month, Mobile Service could be the company’s key to improving its overall effectiveness.

The Mobile Service fleet grew 24 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, with 303 additional units added last year alone. However, this could likely increase further if Tesla developed and built its own Service vehicles, and let’s face it, they’d be much more cost-effective than leasing expensive Service locations.

A Tesla Van would also enter a market with relatively small amounts of competition. Currently, the E-Transit holds 73 percent of the segment, with 6,500 sales last year. Offering only 236 miles of range in its Custom offering, the E-Transit could be challenged by a Tesla Van.

A ‘More Traditional’ Pickup

This one is a bit of a long shot, but it could definitely still happen. Musk stated in an interview with Automotive News in 2020 that if the Tesla Cybertruck was a flop, the company could develop a more “traditional” pickup design.

“If it turns out nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we’ll build a normal truck, no problem,” he said.

tesla pickup

An artist’s render of the Tesla Pickup Truck. (Credit: Emre Husman)

With over a million pre-orders currently, it does not seem as if Tesla will do this, at least not any time in the near future. However, Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, who confirmed the Cybertruck design was finalized, did state Tesla never really puts a “pencils down” approach to the subject.

While the whole idea behind the Cybertruck was to break the mold of traditional pickup designs, some may want to continue with Tesla’s expertise in EVs while having something slightly more “normal.” But, in my estimation, don’t hold your breath.

A Tesla Boat

In regards to Tesla’s “ecological paradise,” Musk told us in September that the company filed to expand Gigafactory Texas from the southern portion to make way for this project. Visitors would be able to float down the Colorado River to downtown Austin.

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But instead of Tesla Kayaks, Musk said the company could develop “electric Tesla boats with a retro-futuristic Victorian design.”

tesla cyberboat

Musk has already hinted that the Cybertruck will likely be able to float and navigate through water, at least to an extent. However, it seems that a boat could be developed for at least the company’s internal projects, like the “ecological paradise” it plans to build outside of the Texas Gigafactory.

$25,000 Mass-Market Sedan

Heavily rumored as a Tesla project for several years, the $25,000 vehicle is the company’s key to mass affordability for many consumers.

When Chevrolet announced huge cuts on the Bolt EV and EUV last year, it became one of the most affordable EVs you can buy, and it was a car that was recognized as a major needle mover in terms of EV adoption simply because it showed consumers that you don’t have to spend upwards of $40,000 on an EV.

tesla 25k

Credit: Alwinart/Twitter

However, the vehicle is not a rumor, and it’s definitely something Tesla is looking toward developing soon. Musk said last year:

“Well, we’re not currently working on the — on a $25,000 car. We — you know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be.”

The $25,000 Tesla will likely be a part of the company’s next-gen platform, which will be discussed during the Investor Day on March 1. Musk once again confirmed during the Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call that this will be on the agenda for the event.

What won’t happen: a Tesla Motorcycle

While Tesla did unveil a Tesla CyberATV at the Cybertruck event in 2019, Musk said Tesla will never develop an electric motorcycle.

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“I had a road bike until I was 17 and was almost killed by a truck,” Musk said. “So we’re not going to do motorcycles.”

The Bottom Line

Of course, we already know Tesla is developing a new version of the Model 3 within Project Highland. While this could be more of an internal revamp than anything, just as the Model S and Model X refreshes were, there are undoubtedly plenty of things in the works.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit

Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.

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Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.

Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.

Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.

The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”

Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”

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The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.

Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.

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SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock

Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell overlooks the company’s Hawthorne, California headquarters as an American flag flies over the campus at sunset.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”

The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.

A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.

Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.

How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”

The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.

Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving becomes main pillar of new Referral Program

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving is now the centerpiece of the company’s newly revised Referral Program, which launched on October 29.

Instead of referring people to purchase vehicles and the referrer receiving $250 in Tesla Credit, the new program now incentivizes Full Self-Driving subscriptions.

If a Tesla owner is on an FSD trial and uses a referral code to subscribe to Full Self-Driving, the person whose Referral Link was used will receive one month of FSD (Supervised). Their code can be utilized 12 times per year, with January 1 marking the reset date.

Realistically, this means that if your Referral Code is used by 12 Tesla owners on an FSD trial, you will receive a full year of FSD for free.

The previous program made it pretty difficult to get referrals; buying a vehicle is obviously a much larger financial strain than subscribing to Full Self-Driving for a month.

Of course, the previous Referral Program also offered a tangible benefit: $250 in credits you could use on Service, Supercharging, or anything in the Tesla Shop. It truly could pay for someone’s travel for a year. It recently bought me a new backpack and a T-shirt.

However, this new program is much more attainable for those who do not have a massive online presence of a slew of friends in the Tesla community who will use the code and max out subscriptions for vehicle purchases.

The Full Self-Driving suite will now be the keystone of the Referral Program, which makes it more inclusive and more fun for everyone with an awesome benefit.

It also gives the impression that Tesla is truly focused on FSD subscriptions, something that saw a tremendous increase in volume in Q3, as 75 percent of deliveries for the quarter came with an FSD subscription attached.

Full Self-Driving data is so instrumental to the suite’s improvement that this kind of program benefits Tesla as much as it does the consumer.

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