Investor's Corner
Tesla Earnings is tomorrow – Here’s what analysts think you should be looking for
Tesla is set to report its earnings for the second quarter tomorrow afternoon, and analysts are preparing for a variety of different things as the call is expected to have a different feel than previous ones.
Tesla Head of Investor Relations Martin Viecha announced last quarter that he would no longer be on any Earnings Calls moving forward as he was stepping down from his position. CEO Elon Musk will be on the call, and will navigate questions regarding what was a strong second quarter from analysts and investors alike.
Taking focus during this quarter will be several relevant topics during the first half of 2024 for Tesla. The company’s Robotaxi event, originally scheduled for August, has been pushed back to what Bloomberg reported as October.
Tesla Robotaxi unveiling event pushed back from August: report
Additionally, Tesla’s quarter was filled with various headlines — a 10 to 20 percent reduction in global workforce, a delivery beat, and a relative focus on artificial intelligence as Full Self-Driving and Optimus continue to be the center of discussions surrounding the company’s future.
However, analysts believe something else might be a topic worth mentioning: margins.
Tesla’s Margins
Wall Street, according to Reuters, expects Tesla’s automotive gross margin to slip to 16.27 percent. This would be the lowest since Q1 2019. It was over 18 percent in Q2 2023 and 16.36 percent in Q1 2024.
This is likely due to Tesla’s incredibly attractive financing discounts, which it rolled out twice during Q2. Analysts believe margins are going to increase back to normal levels in 2025 as Cybertruck continues its production ramp, which will ease the pressure associated with the costs of building a new vehicle.
Paul Marino of GraniteShares said:
“AI and robotaxi is such a huge opportunity over the next two, three, five years. So if you’re a long-term believer, you’re going to take the margins like your medicine.”
Robotaxi and Full Self-Driving
A main focus of the call for Tesla investors will be the rollout of Robotaxi and an update on the progress of Full Self-Driving (FSD). Tesla did delay its Robotaxi unveiling event, which was set for August 8, and it is expected to be in October.
The two-month delay is nothing too unsettling for long-term investors who have a belief in the company and Musk.
Wedbush talked about the lack of real impact the delay has on the long-term:
“While the knee-jerk reaction will clearly be negative on a delay of August 8th based on this report that just hit, we believe the timing of robotaxis, partnerships, and the ultimate autonomous and AI-driven technology does not change at all for our bullish Tesla thesis.”
Dan Ives also said in his note that the delay could actually be looked at as a positive:
“To some extent, we believe this 2-month delay could just make the actual Robotaxi event and prototypes even better, and more eye-popping for Tesla as Musk and the team know this unlocks the key to the long-term future of the Tesla story, and investors want MORE details…not less at this historic event.”
Delivery Beat
Tesla reported delivery figures for the quarter at the beginning of the month and they were quite encouraging, all things considered. Beating Wall Street consensus figures by roughly 6,000 vehicles, Tesla stock saw a drastic increase in price since the report:
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
Up over 35 percent in the past month on the market, Tesla canceled out any losses it felt through the first six months.
Along with the strong delivery figures, Tesla Energy reported its biggest quarter to date, with 9.4 GWh of deployments reported in Q2.
Tesla Energy could be one of the bigger factors in future earnings reports. Baird’s Ben Kallo said Q2 numbers “should be good largely (but not only) due to strength in energy:”
“We think a more stable pricing environment during the quarter, higher revenue from full self-driving, and the large beat in its energy segment all support a solid quarter.”
Tesla will report its Q2 Earnings tomorrow after the market closes. It will be followed by an Earnings Call with Musk and other executives.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
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