Investor's Corner
Tesla Earnings is tomorrow – Here’s what analysts think you should be looking for
Tesla is set to report its earnings for the second quarter tomorrow afternoon, and analysts are preparing for a variety of different things as the call is expected to have a different feel than previous ones.
Tesla Head of Investor Relations Martin Viecha announced last quarter that he would no longer be on any Earnings Calls moving forward as he was stepping down from his position. CEO Elon Musk will be on the call, and will navigate questions regarding what was a strong second quarter from analysts and investors alike.
Taking focus during this quarter will be several relevant topics during the first half of 2024 for Tesla. The company’s Robotaxi event, originally scheduled for August, has been pushed back to what Bloomberg reported as October.
Tesla Robotaxi unveiling event pushed back from August: report
Additionally, Tesla’s quarter was filled with various headlines — a 10 to 20 percent reduction in global workforce, a delivery beat, and a relative focus on artificial intelligence as Full Self-Driving and Optimus continue to be the center of discussions surrounding the company’s future.
However, analysts believe something else might be a topic worth mentioning: margins.
Tesla’s Margins
Wall Street, according to Reuters, expects Tesla’s automotive gross margin to slip to 16.27 percent. This would be the lowest since Q1 2019. It was over 18 percent in Q2 2023 and 16.36 percent in Q1 2024.
This is likely due to Tesla’s incredibly attractive financing discounts, which it rolled out twice during Q2. Analysts believe margins are going to increase back to normal levels in 2025 as Cybertruck continues its production ramp, which will ease the pressure associated with the costs of building a new vehicle.
Paul Marino of GraniteShares said:
“AI and robotaxi is such a huge opportunity over the next two, three, five years. So if you’re a long-term believer, you’re going to take the margins like your medicine.”
Robotaxi and Full Self-Driving
A main focus of the call for Tesla investors will be the rollout of Robotaxi and an update on the progress of Full Self-Driving (FSD). Tesla did delay its Robotaxi unveiling event, which was set for August 8, and it is expected to be in October.
The two-month delay is nothing too unsettling for long-term investors who have a belief in the company and Musk.
Wedbush talked about the lack of real impact the delay has on the long-term:
“While the knee-jerk reaction will clearly be negative on a delay of August 8th based on this report that just hit, we believe the timing of robotaxis, partnerships, and the ultimate autonomous and AI-driven technology does not change at all for our bullish Tesla thesis.”
Dan Ives also said in his note that the delay could actually be looked at as a positive:
“To some extent, we believe this 2-month delay could just make the actual Robotaxi event and prototypes even better, and more eye-popping for Tesla as Musk and the team know this unlocks the key to the long-term future of the Tesla story, and investors want MORE details…not less at this historic event.”
Delivery Beat
Tesla reported delivery figures for the quarter at the beginning of the month and they were quite encouraging, all things considered. Beating Wall Street consensus figures by roughly 6,000 vehicles, Tesla stock saw a drastic increase in price since the report:
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
Up over 35 percent in the past month on the market, Tesla canceled out any losses it felt through the first six months.
Along with the strong delivery figures, Tesla Energy reported its biggest quarter to date, with 9.4 GWh of deployments reported in Q2.
Tesla Energy could be one of the bigger factors in future earnings reports. Baird’s Ben Kallo said Q2 numbers “should be good largely (but not only) due to strength in energy:”
“We think a more stable pricing environment during the quarter, higher revenue from full self-driving, and the large beat in its energy segment all support a solid quarter.”
Tesla will report its Q2 Earnings tomorrow after the market closes. It will be followed by an Earnings Call with Musk and other executives.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
Elon Musk
Tesla confirmed HW3 can’t do Unsupervised FSD but there’s more to the story
Tesla confirmed HW3 vehicles cannot run unsupervised FSD, replacing its free upgrade promise with a discounted trade-in.
Tesla has officially confirmed that early vehicles with its Autopilot Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised Full Self-Driving, while extending a path forward for legacy owners through a discounted trade-in program. The announcement came by way of Elon Musk in today’s Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call.
🚨 Our LIVE updates on the Tesla Earnings Call will take place here in a thread 🧵
Follow along below: pic.twitter.com/hzJeBitzJU
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 22, 2026
The history here matters. HW3 launched in April 2019, and Tesla sold Full Self-Driving packages to owners on the understanding that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. Some owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for FSD during that period. For years, as FSD’s AI models grew more demanding, HW3 vehicles fell progressively further behind, eventually landing on FSD v12.6 in January 2025 while AI4 vehicles moved to v13 and then v14. When Musk acknowledged in January 2025 that HW3 simply could not reach unsupervised operation, and alluded to a difficult hardware retrofit.
The near-term offering is more concrete. Tesla’s head of Autopilot Ashok Elluswamy confirmed on today’s call that a V14-lite will be coming to HW3 vehicles in late June, bringing all the V14 features currently running on AI4 hardware. That is a meaningful software update for owners who have been frozen at v12.6 for over a year, and it represents genuine effort to keep older hardware relevant. Unsupervised FSD for vehicles is now targeted for Q4 2026 at the earliest, with Musk describing it as a gradual, geography-limited rollout.
For HW3 owners, the over-the-air V14-lite update is welcomed, and the discounted trade-in path at least acknowledges an old obligation. What happens next with the trade-in pricing will define how this chapter ultimately gets written. If Tesla prices the hardware path fairly, acknowledges what early adopters are owed, and delivers V14-lite on the June timeline it committed to today, it has a real opportunity to convert one of the longest-running sore subjects among early adopters into a loyalty story.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what the company reported compared to what Wall Street analysts expected.
The earnings results come after Tesla reported a miss on vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, delivering 358,023 vehicles and building 408,386 cars during the three-month span.
As Tesla transitions more toward AI and sees itself as less of a car company, expectations for deliveries will begin to become less of a central point in the consensus of how the quarter is perceived.
Nevertheless, Tesla is leaning on its strong foundation as a car company to carry forward its AI ambitions. The first quarter is a good ground layer for the rest of the year.
Tesla Q1 2026 Earnings Results
Tesla’s Earnings Results are as follows:
- Non-GAAP EPS – $0.41 Reported vs. $0.36 Expected
- Revenues – $22.387 billion vs. $22.35 billion Expected
- Free Cash Flow – $1.444 billion
- Profit – $4.72 billion
Tesla beat analyst expectations, so it will be interesting to see how the stock responds. IN the past, we’ve seen Tesla beat analyst expectations considerably, followed by a sharp drop in stock price.
On the same token, we’ve seen Tesla miss and the stock price go up the following trading session.
Tesla will hold its Q1 2026 Earnings Call in about 90 minutes at 5:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Remarks will be made by CEO Elon Musk and other executives, who will shed some light on the investor questions that we covered earlier this week.
You can stream it below. Additionally, we will be doing our Live Blog on X and Facebook.
Q1 2026 Earnings Call at 4:30pm CT https://t.co/pkYIaGJ32y
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 22, 2026
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
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