

Investor's Corner
Tesla Semi-truck: What will be the ROI and is it worth it?
Elon Musk’s announcement that a Tesla Semi will be arriving as early as September is the first step to what will eventually be a reinvention of an entire industry. We’ve discussed before what, exactly, that means, but given that the man in charge of the Tesla truck program is Jerome Guillen who has a history with Daimler (specifically Freightliner) and large Class 8 semi-trucks, it’s not hard to see where Tesla plans to go with this. That leaves only the question of how far, literally, they plan to take it. In tractor-trailer operations, there are two basic types of freight moving: short-haul and long-haul.
We’re going to look at each of these types of freight hauling and how the return on investment (ROI) for a battery-electric rig (such as that we expect Tesla to unveil) would be. If there is any. We’ll also consider what type of equipment this might entail, in a broad sense, and how that compares to current paradigms in tractor-trailer freight hauling.
Before we dive into that, a few words on what the trucking industry is like are needed. About 69.5 percent of the freight moved in the United States is moved on a commercial truck. The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) also says that a staggering 92 percent of prepared foods are moved by trucks and 82.7 percent of agricultural products are moved by truck, as are 65 percent of pharmaceuticals. However you measure it, that’s a lot of goods being moved on highways and surface roads nationally.
Currently, the trucking industry is seeing a lot of change, internally, as technology improves the way that freight hauling operates. The Internet and faster communications, for example, has begun to erode the traditional consignee-broker-hauler paradigm in which someone with goods to haul contacted a freight broker who then contracted a freight hauler to move the goods, skimming a percentage off the top for the connection. The middleman is often cut out in today’s trucking, with many trucking companies having load brokers on staff.
Electronics and global positioning have also changed how trucks operate, with computers more efficiently organizing load and truck movements to minimize empty movement. The USDOT says that about 29 percent of all truck movement is pulling an empty trailer to or from a freight drop-off point, costing about $30 billion annually. That number, while high, has been dropping for some time and drops exponentially as networks of computers get more efficient at organizing trucking and trucking companies consolidate into larger and larger fleets.
Finally, we should note that the longer the average trip (load to delivery) is for a tractor-trailer, the faster the truck’s ROI for the owner. Shorter hauls have higher per-mile maintenance costs than do longer hauls. Even discounting the cost of fuel, that becomes true as equipment maintenance costs beyond engine and fuel are still higher with shorter distances. There are several reasons for this, including how often brakes are used, how much time is spent not working (idling or sitting), and higher incidences of accidents. To name a few. Many short-haul operations are undertaken on less than ideal roads and in areas where any kind of breakdown, including a flat tire, can mean hours wasted waiting for repair.
Knowing those things, we can look at potential ROI for both short-haul and long-haul Tesla electric semi-trucks.
Short Haul
Conventionally, short-haul operations are defined as being tractor-trailer shipments moving 250 miles or less and long-haul is defined as being those same types of shipments moving more than 250 miles. Each of these has sub-categories, of course, but in the main, those are the two major markets for large Class 8 semi-trucks pulling freight. It should be noted that the overlap between short-haul and long-haul is large, as many short-haul shipments are being carried to a distribution location where it’s reassembled for longer distance hauling.
Of the two operations, short-haul has the most diversity in terms of machines used and types of freight carried. It’s in this category that we find items as aggregate as grain freshly harvested from fields to stones to specialized equipment being carried. Sometimes by the same truck and driver over the course of a year’s work. It’s also in this category that we find specialized rigs meant for entering pit mines, climbing steep grades on primitive dirt roads, moving overweight and outsized items, and so forth. For the most part, trucks in this category are “day cabs” meaning they have no sleeper unit attached for the driver to use as a rest quarters when not at the wheel.
So far, the electrified Class 8 vehicles we’ve seen actually enter the market have nearly all fallen into the short-haul category. These have included battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and hybrid units working as “yard dogs” moving trailers around a dock area, as portage trucks moving containers and freight out of port to staging areas or local distribution centers, and local area urban and suburban delivery vehicles. Currently, there is a large push in California to make all port vehicles (including container-moving trucks) as zero-emissions as possible.
The good news for battery-electric truck makers and those who aspire to become them is that, according to the USDOT, about half of all of the shipments (by value) is moved less than 250 miles. That accounts for about 80 percent of the weight being moved around the country. The bad news is that in this segment, less is paid per ton for that freight to be moved and, according to the American Transportation Research Institute, this segment only accounts for about 25 percent of the trucks on the road. Equipment age also tends to be higher in this category, with trucks being used for more years (and generally fewer miles) than compared to long-haul trucks.
In terms of cost, outside of maintenance, the most expensive items for a tractor-trailer, whether short- or long-haul, are fuel (38 percent), driver wages and benefits (34 percent), and truck-trailer lease payments and insurance (14 percent). These costs are about the same no matter what the truck is used for in most conventional operations, short-haul or long. Maintenance is about six percent higher in short-haul operations when compared to long-haul and insurance is usually a bit higher(1.5 percent), but not by so much that it can’t be averaged between them without skewing the numbers.
We can safely assume that a battery-electric semi-truck will have a higher price tag than its diesel-powered counterpart, which itself averages about $150,000 new. How much larger the electric truck would be is mostly conjecture, but we can probably be considered conservative to say it’s up-front costs will be at least 50 percent higher ($225,000) due to the expense of the batteries. Morgan Stanley’s report on electric and autonomous trucking assumed $75,000 for 500 kWh of battery storage, translating to roughly 150 or so miles of range in a fully loaded (80,000 pound) semi-truck. Given the current lithium crunch and the likelihood that economies of scale will take a lot of time to come to fruition, it’s easy to predict that more than half the Tesla Semi’s cost would be in batteries should it aim for a 250-mile range.
Over time, of course, that larger up-front price tag would be returned with fuel savings. In short-haul operations, about four years (250,000 miles) would be required to pay off $100,000 in battery premium with fuel savings. There are, however, other costs that would rise with the higher price of the rig. A higher-priced rig will have higher lease payments and higher insurance costs for replacement. This would stretch the ROI of the short-haul truck, by roughly another year, making it a five year investment return. If the truck stays in operation for the typical usage cycle in this segment, however, that would mean the truck pays for itself in about two thirds (70 percent) of its intended lifespan. Some percentage of the maintenance would also be lower in cost due to the nature of the electric truck, but much of it (tires, drivetrain, brakes, etc.) remains stagnant, further whittling at that ROI timeframe.
By and large, most forward-thinking fleet managers would jump at that. With one point of caution: by nature of their business and the long timeframes involved, most fleet managers are averse to change on a large scale. A few EV trucks here and there to prove out the technology and make the suits and ties happy are one thing. Jumping whole hog into the change is quite another. It would take some time (likely years) for fleet managers of short-haul fleets to decide that battery-electric trucks (or any type of unconventional powertrain) is a healthy decision. That, more than anything, will be the major delay towards adoption of something like a Tesla Semi.
Long-Haul Operations
Assuming that a Tesla Semi could be capable of hauling freight for 500-1,000 miles on a charge (the average long-haul trip is 600 miles per day), it would jump into a segment of trucking that accounts for more ton-miles than any other type of freight movement and that is growing faster than any other segment of commercial transportation in terms of both value and weight being moved. Further, the average turnover for a tractor in the long-haul business is 6.6 years (ATRI numbers) and the average mileage is over 110,000 miles per year per truck. ROI is typically faster as well, given the lower costs versus the miles driven.
Coming up with an ROI for a long-haul electric semi-truck is much trickier here and may be nearly impossible without knowing more about the EV truck to be used. At this stage, a battery-electric Tesla Semi would be nearly impossible for long-haul given the size and thus weight of the batteries required. So something involving very fast charging, battery swapping, or similar would be required. That adds costs to the equation that we cannot easily quantify without knowing what those logistics are.
What we can easily project is that the cost-benefit for a Tesla Semi in a long-haul scenario would not likely be nearly as compelling as it is for a short-haul fleet manager. A typical over-the-road truck sees about a million miles during its lifespan with a cost of about $400,000 in fuel and $100,000 in maintenance (ATRI) during that time. Most fleets own the truck for about seventy percent that time (700,000 miles), on average. So the cost of a truck, in terms of purchase price, fuel, and maintenance over its expected fleet lifespan is about half a million dollars ($280,000 fuel + $70,000 maintenance + $150,000 purchase = $500,000). This might begin to look very close to break even on a higher-priced EV truck by comparison, which would very likely save on fuel but would have higher up-front costs in balance. Further, those fuel savings might not be as good given the likelihood that logistics like battery swapping or more frequent stops for plugging in would be required.
Conclusion
A Tesla Semi would likely have a good return on investment for any fleet manager who is willing to look over the long-term and consider the cost-benefit. For the short-haul manager, however, the potential ROI is far more provocative than it would be for the long-haul manager. We can see a clear business case for a Tesla Semi for a large proportion of the short-haul industry, though we do caution that it will likely take some time for those in the industry to cast anything but a dubious eye towards an unconventional powertrain.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Board member and Airbnb co-founder loads up on TSLA ahead of robotaxi launch
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member’s purchase.

Tesla Board member and Airbnb Co-Founder Joe Gebbia has loaded up on TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Board member’s purchase comes just over a month before Tesla is expected to launch an initial robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member in a post on social media.
The TSLA Purchase
As could be seen in a Form 4 submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Gebbia purchased about $1.02 million worth of TSLA stock. This was comprised of 4,000 TSLA shares at an average price of $256.308 per share.
Interestingly enough, Gebbia’s purchase represents the first time an insider has purchased TSLA stock in about five years. CEO Elon Musk, in response to a post on social media platform X about the Tesla Board member’s TSLA purchase, gave a nod of appreciation for Gebbia. “Joe rocks,” Musk wrote in his post on X.
Gebbia has served on Tesla’s Board as an independent director since 2022, and he is also a known friend of Elon Musk. He even joined the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to help the government optimize its processes.

Just a Few Weeks Before Robotaxi
The timing of Gebbia’s TSLA stock purchase is quite interesting as the company is expected to launch a dedicated roboatxi service this June in Austin. A recent report from Insider, citing sources reportedly familiar with the matter, claimed that Tesla currently has 300 test operators driving robotaxis around Austin city streets. The publication’s sources also noted that Tesla has an internal deadline of June 1 for the robotaxi service’s rollout, but even a launch near the end of the month would be impressive.
During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the robotaxi service that would be launched in June will feature autonomous rides in Model Y units. He also noted that the robotaxi service would see an expansion to other cities by the end of 2025. “The Teslas that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year,” Musk stated.
Investor's Corner
Tesla hints at ‘Model 2’ & next-gen EV designs
Tesla’s Q1 2025 update confirms new models this year, with production tied to existing factory lines. Could it be time for the Model 2 debut?

During its Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla executives hinted at the much-rumored “Model 2” and other next-gen EV designs.
Tesla slightly addressed whether or not it will be pushing forward with the debut of new models later this year in its latest earnings call. The company’s product development executive, Lars Moravy, shared some details about Tesla’s design process and the upcoming affordable models.
“We’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through, like, the last minute issues that pop up. We’re knocking them down one by one. At this point, I would say that the ramp might be a little slower than we had hoped initially…But there’s nothing that’s blocking us from starting production within the next, within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks.
“And I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so the flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles, and that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the, you know, the lowest price, to the market, within the constraints I just highlighted.”
The Model 3 is a hell of a deal, ngl. With the federal tax credit, it'd be silly to get a comparably priced combustion-powered car.
Now for the big question. Is the Model 3 currently the best-looking Tesla? https://t.co/5E37J9OKhU— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 24, 2025
In January, Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja teased several new product introductions for this year. There is at least one product that most Tesla supporters and investors are hoping to see: the company’s affordable vehicles, which have been dubbed by the EV community as the “Model 2” or “Model Q.”
Before Tesla’s Robotaxi event last year, many speculated that the company would also unveil its affordable next-gen vehicle. Gene Munster from Deepwater had expected Tesla to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3 as its affordable vehicle during the Robotaxi event. In the end, Tesla unveiled its Robotaxi vehicle and its Robovan design.
It’s been a while since the Robotaxi event, and Tesla has kept mum about its affordable vehicle. Considering its Q1 2025 performance, TSLA investors look forward to catalysts that could boost the stock.
The “Model 2” has been labeled a potential catalyst for Tesla. As such, TSLA investors and supporters have been itching for news about the new affordable vehicle. The main questions surrounding the “Model 2” revolve around its design and price. Based on Moravy’s statement, the “Model 2’s” design will heavily depend on Tesla’s current assembly lines and supply chain structures.
Elon Musk
Tesla regains Piper Sandler’s confidence with Robotaxi plans & Q1 Results
Piper Sandler says Tesla delivered the best-case scenario for bulls. $TSLA has catalysts ahead to silence the bears.

Tesla gained Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter’s confidence following its Q1 2025 earnings call. Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $400 TSLA price target, signaling optimism for the company’s robotaxi and affordable vehicle launches expected this year. The firm’s stance reflects Tesla’s resilience amid market challenges.
Despite expectations of weak Q1 financials, Tesla’s stock edged up in after-hours trading, defying skepticism. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter noted that the results met the hopes of Tesla supporters, particularly as the company held firm on its timelines. Potter emphasized that anticipation for robotaxi details and new vehicle launches should keep critics at bay, supporting the $400 target.
“In our preview last week, we predicted that (at best) Q1 would be a non-event. With the stock trading up slightly in the after-hours session, it appears our best-case scenario has materialized. Considering generally weak Q1 financials, we think this is the best result that TSLA bulls could’ve reasonably hoped for.
“In our view, the most important Q1 takeaway is this: Tesla didn’t hedge expectations re: launching Robotaxis or lower-priced vehicles in 1H25. With <2 months until the end of June, investors can look forward to some interesting catalysts in the weeks ahead. In our view, this alone should be enough to keep the bears at bay, at least until we have a better idea re: the details of Tesla’s new products, as well as the scale/scope of the Robotaxi launch,” wrote Potter.
Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a longtime TSLA bull, echoed Potter’s optimism for Tesla. Ives raised his price target for Tesla stock from $315 to $350 with a BUY rating. His Tesla upgrade came after Elon Musk’s announcement during the Q1 earnings call that he would reduce his involvement with DOGE, signaling a sharper focus on Tesla.
Tesla’s steady Q1 performance and unwavering commitment to its 2025 roadmap, including the Robotaxi launch and lower-priced models, bolster investor confidence. Piper Sandler’s analysis underscores Tesla’s ability to navigate a competitive electric vehicle market while advancing its technological edge. The upcoming Robotaxi launch and affordable vehicle introductions are pivotal, with analysts expecting these initiatives to drive stock value through 2025.
As Tesla prepares for these milestones, its stock movement reflects market trust in Musk’s vision. With Piper Sandler and Wedbush reaffirming bullish outlooks, Tesla’s strategic moves will remain under close scrutiny, positioning the company to capitalize on its innovation pipeline in a dynamic industry landscape.
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