Investor's Corner
Tesla 2024: What analysts are saying about outlook for the New Year
Tesla closed out 2023 with a bang, reporting record deliveries for a calendar year and eclipsing the 1.8 million unit production goal that was set at the beginning of the year.
Now, 2024 is here, and analysts are putting into scope what could come from Tesla this year. There are a lot of rumors of what the automaker could bring to the table this year, including its rumored $25,000 vehicle, revamps of the Model 3 coming to the United States, and a new version of the Model Y hitting the scene. Tesla will also look to ramp up production of the Cybertruck this year.
Tesla Model 3 Highland delivery from Fremont expected by the end of Q1 2024
Analysts are split on what they expect from Tesla in 2024, while the bulls are being bulls and the bears are being bears. What else should we expect, right?
But for what it is worth, in order to get a well-rounded perspective of what might be on the way, we are looking at both sides of the argument, highlighting what Tesla’s supporting analysts are expecting from the company in 2024. Inversely, we will also look at the more pessimistic analysts, and why they feel 2024 could be the most challenging year for Tesla yet.
Bullish Sentiments
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is one of the bulls in the Tesla story, and he projects roughly 2.25 million vehicle deliveries this year.
Additionally, Jonas feels that the true indication of Tesla’s dominance will be felt outside of China, where it has struggled to keep up with domestic automakers. Instead, the focus is in the United States and Europe:
“Outside of China, we struggle to see anyone who can compete with Tesla at this stage. We don’t think it’s a coincidence at all that Tesla’s ‘stepped up’ engagement with foreign countries comes at a time when China has surpassed Japan as the largest exporter of passenger cars.”
Jonas maintained a $380 price target on the stock.
Meanwhile, Jefferies reiterated a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock but raised its 12-month price target to $255 from $210 after reporting its 2023 volume.
A note from analysts at the firm stated that, although there were no significant changes in volume, there was a decrease in leasing adoption and above-expected delivery numbers for “Other Models,” meaning Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. These could indicate an easier 4680 battery production ramp, or, perhaps, a better-than-expected Cybertruck ramp-up as the early months of the project continue on.
Analysts from Jefferies wrote (via Investing):
“High deliveries of Cybertrucks in Q4 may not help 2023 profitability and we continue to see the vehicle as Off-Mission. Still, it would suggest an earlier or smoother ramp manufacturing 4680 cells or trucks than feared.”
Bearish Narratives
The Bear argument is one that many firms continue to maintain, and Deutsche Bank is one, especially as the firm sees a “large downside risk” on Tesla stock moving forward.
Analysts from the firm see guidance of 2.1 million units being realistic, as well as a veer-away from the 50 percent CAGR over the mid-term.
The risk comes from reduced volume forecast due to market assumptions, pricing pressures, the Cybertruck’s potential impact on Tesla’s strong margins, and an elevated tax rate in China.
Additionally, Toni Sacconaghi believes the auotmaker could fall 40 percent this year, especially as margin pressure comes to the forefront. He also believes Tesla will “disappoint on volumes.”
Sacconaghi said in December Tesla was the best stock to short heading into the New Year, and while he reiterated his $150 price target on the stock, the analyst seems to share the same sentiments as Deutsche Bank. Margins are the focus for bears in 2024, and Tesla has some of the best in the automotive industry for years.
Tesla shares were down roughly 3.75 percent at the time of publish, trading around $239 a share.
Disclosure: I own Tesla shares.
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Elon Musk
Tesla confirmed HW3 can’t do Unsupervised FSD but there’s more to the story
Tesla confirmed HW3 vehicles cannot run unsupervised FSD, replacing its free upgrade promise with a discounted trade-in.
Tesla has officially confirmed that early vehicles with its Autopilot Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised Full Self-Driving, while extending a path forward for legacy owners through a discounted trade-in program. The announcement came by way of Elon Musk in today’s Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call.
🚨 Our LIVE updates on the Tesla Earnings Call will take place here in a thread 🧵
Follow along below: pic.twitter.com/hzJeBitzJU
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 22, 2026
The history here matters. HW3 launched in April 2019, and Tesla sold Full Self-Driving packages to owners on the understanding that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. Some owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for FSD during that period. For years, as FSD’s AI models grew more demanding, HW3 vehicles fell progressively further behind, eventually landing on FSD v12.6 in January 2025 while AI4 vehicles moved to v13 and then v14. When Musk acknowledged in January 2025 that HW3 simply could not reach unsupervised operation, and alluded to a difficult hardware retrofit.
The near-term offering is more concrete. Tesla’s head of Autopilot Ashok Elluswamy confirmed on today’s call that a V14-lite will be coming to HW3 vehicles in late June, bringing all the V14 features currently running on AI4 hardware. That is a meaningful software update for owners who have been frozen at v12.6 for over a year, and it represents genuine effort to keep older hardware relevant. Unsupervised FSD for vehicles is now targeted for Q4 2026 at the earliest, with Musk describing it as a gradual, geography-limited rollout.
For HW3 owners, the over-the-air V14-lite update is welcomed, and the discounted trade-in path at least acknowledges an old obligation. What happens next with the trade-in pricing will define how this chapter ultimately gets written. If Tesla prices the hardware path fairly, acknowledges what early adopters are owed, and delivers V14-lite on the June timeline it committed to today, it has a real opportunity to convert one of the longest-running sore subjects among early adopters into a loyalty story.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what the company reported compared to what Wall Street analysts expected.
The earnings results come after Tesla reported a miss on vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, delivering 358,023 vehicles and building 408,386 cars during the three-month span.
As Tesla transitions more toward AI and sees itself as less of a car company, expectations for deliveries will begin to become less of a central point in the consensus of how the quarter is perceived.
Nevertheless, Tesla is leaning on its strong foundation as a car company to carry forward its AI ambitions. The first quarter is a good ground layer for the rest of the year.
Tesla Q1 2026 Earnings Results
Tesla’s Earnings Results are as follows:
- Non-GAAP EPS – $0.41 Reported vs. $0.36 Expected
- Revenues – $22.387 billion vs. $22.35 billion Expected
- Free Cash Flow – $1.444 billion
- Profit – $4.72 billion
Tesla beat analyst expectations, so it will be interesting to see how the stock responds. IN the past, we’ve seen Tesla beat analyst expectations considerably, followed by a sharp drop in stock price.
On the same token, we’ve seen Tesla miss and the stock price go up the following trading session.
Tesla will hold its Q1 2026 Earnings Call in about 90 minutes at 5:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Remarks will be made by CEO Elon Musk and other executives, who will shed some light on the investor questions that we covered earlier this week.
You can stream it below. Additionally, we will be doing our Live Blog on X and Facebook.
Q1 2026 Earnings Call at 4:30pm CT https://t.co/pkYIaGJ32y
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 22, 2026
Elon Musk
Tesla Earnings: financial expectations and what we should to hear about
In terms of discussions, Tesla earnings calls are usually a great time to get some clarification on the company’s outlook for its current and future projects.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its earnings for the first quarter of 2026 this evening after the market closes, and analysts have already put out their expectations from a financial standpoint for the company’s first three months of the year.
Additionally, there will be plenty of things that will be discussed, including the recent expansion of the Robotaxi program, the Roadster unveiling, and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) approvals across the globe.
Financial Expectations
Wall Street consensus expectations put Tesla’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $0.36, while revenues are expected to come in around $22.35 billion.
This would compare to an EPS of $0.27 and $19.34 billion compared to Tesla’s Q1 2025. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.50 on $29.4 billion of revenue.
Tesla beat analyst expectations last quarter, but the next trading day, the stock fell nearly 3.5 percent. We never quite can gauge how the market will respond to Tesla’s earnings; we’ve seen shares rise on a miss and fall on a beat.
It really goes on the news, and investor consensus, it seems.
What to Expect
In terms of discussions, Tesla earnings calls are usually a great time to get some clarification on the company’s outlook for its current and future projects. Right now, the big focus of investors is the Robotaxi program, the Roadster unveiling, and what the outlook for Full Self-Driving’s expansion throughout Europe and the rest of the world looks like.
Robotaxi
Tesla just recently expanded its unsupervised Robotaxi program to Dallas and Houston, joining Austin as the first cities in the U.S. to have access to the company’s ride-hailing suite.
Tesla expands Unsupervised Robotaxi service to two new cities
Some saw this move as a quick effort to turn attention away from a delivery miss and an anticipated miss on earnings. However, we’ve seen Tesla be more than deliberate with its expansion of the Robotaxi suite, so it’s hard to believe the company would make this move if it were not truly ready to do so.
The company is also working to expand its U.S. ride-hailing service outside of Texas and California, and recently filed paperwork to build a Robotaxi-exclusive Supercharger stall.
Expansion is planned for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona at some point this year, with more states to follow.
Roadster Unveiling
The Roadster unveiling was slated for April 1, and then pushed back (once again) to “probably late April,” according to Elon Musk.
It does not appear that the Roadster unveiling will happen within that time frame, at least not to our knowledge. Nobody has received media or press invites for a Roadster unveiling, and given the lofty expectations set for the vehicle by Musk and Co., it seems like something they’d want to show off to the public.
The Roadster has become a truly frustrating project for Tesla and its fans; evidently, there is something that is not up to the expectations Musk and others have. Meanwhile, fans are essentially waiting for something that is six years late.
At this point, also given the company’s focus on autonomy, it almost seems more worth it to just cancel it, remove any and all timelines and expectations, and surprise people with something crazy down the line, maybe in two or three years. There should be no talk of it.
Full Self-Driving Global Expansion
We expect Musk and Co. to shed some details on where it stands with other European government bodies, as it recently was able to roll out FSD (Supervised) to customers in the Netherlands.
Spain is also working with Tesla to assess FSD’s viability as a publicly available option for owners.
With that being said, there should be some additional information for investors as they listen to the call; no talk of it would be a pretty big letdown.
Optimus
There will likely be a date set for the Gen 3 Optimus unveiling, and we’re hopeful Tesla can keep that date set in stone and meet it. Not reaching timelines is a relatively minor issue, but a company can only do this for so long before its fans and investors start to lose trust and disregard any talk about dates.
It seems this is happening already.
Optimus has been pegged as Tesla’s big money maker for the future. The goals and expectations are high, but it is a privilege to have that sort of pressure when investors know the company’s capability.
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